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[hiska-kun]

Comgnet
Week 49 => Week 50 => Week 51 => Week 52

Super Mario Maker 3DS
151pt => 192pt => 462pt => 153pt

Pokemon Sun
107pt => 161pt => 291pt => 84pt

Pokemon Moon
101pt => 149pt => 254pt => 79pt

Momotaro Dentetsu 2017
- => - => 236pt => 177pt

Yo-kai Watch Sukiyaki
- => 411pt => 321pt => 124pt

Miitopia
56pt => 52pt => 90pt => 36pt

Minecraft Vita
17pt => 21pt => 55pt => 43pt

Animal Crossing NL
10pt => 19pt => 48pt => 15pt

Final Fantasy XV
77pt => 34pt => 57pt => 32pt

 

[astrogamer]

Prediction League January 2017

[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD 2.8 Final Chapter Prologue (18 days) - 140,000
[PSV - PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (18 days) - 110,000
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 (11 days) - 60,000
[3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World (11 days) - 65,000
[PS4 - PSV] Valkyria Revolution (11 days) - 49,000
[PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard (6 days) - 210,000

 

[Ōkami]

We should expect a drop for last week an uptick this week and then a big drop next week with the holidays over.

 

[hiska-kun]

If we put the holidays week from the strongest to the weakest it's something like this:

Week 51 > Week 50 > Week 1 > Week 49 > Week 52 > Week 48

Week 52 Sales should be between week 48 and week 49 for comparison. Week 1 is the third strongest week.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Is Super Mario maker 3ds likely going to be one of those games that sells 8-15k a week for a long long time?

 

[horuhe]

Rakuten Books Sales Ranking Week 52, 2016 (Dec 26 - Jan 01)

01./01. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo)
02./02. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5)
03./05. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! <TBL> (Nintendo)
04./03. [3DS] Pokémon Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
05./04. [3DS] Pokémon Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
06./07. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Interactive)
07./21. [WiiU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios)
08./06. [3DS] Miitopia <SLG> (Nintendo)
09./07. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV <RPG> (Square Enix)
10./14. [3DS] Mario Party: Star Rush <ETC> (Nintendo)
11./06. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life <ACT> (Sega)
12./23. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia)
13./13. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo)
14./10. [3DS] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Heroes <SPT> (Konami)
15./15. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot <ACT> (Nintendo)
16./19. [3DS] Monster Hunter Stories <RPG> (Capcom)
17./18. [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 <ACT> (Nintendo)
18./22. [WiiU] Super Mario Maker <ACT> (Nintendo)
19./16. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo)
20./17. [WiiU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo)

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking Week 52, 2016 (Dec 26 - Jan 01)

01./01. [PS4] Resident Evil 7 (Grotesque Ver.) <ACT> (Capcom)
02./04. [PSV] New Danganronpa V3: Everyone's New Semester of Killing <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
03./02. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD II.8 Final Chapter Prologue <RPG> (Square Enix)
04./04. [PS4] Nier: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix)
05./05. [3DS] Monster Hunter XX <ACT> (Capcom)
06./06. [PS4] Gravity Rush 2 (First Limited Edition) <ADV> (Sony Interactive)
07./08. [PS4] Gran Turismo: Sport (Limited Edition) <RCE> (Sony Interactive)
08./12. [PS4] Four Goddesses Online: Cyber Dimension Neptune <RPG> (Compile Heart)
09./07. [PS4] Resident Evil 7 <ACT> (Capcom)
10./09. [PS4] Valkyria: Azure Revolution <RPG> (Sega)

Rakuten Books Ranking Week 51, 2016 (Dec 19 - Dec 25)

***WARNING***

* Note: Games on the Rakuten Books Rankings are ONLY based on sales at Rakuten Books and does NOT count games sold by other retailers at Rakuten.
** Note 2: Games on the Pre-Orders Ranking are counted as net sales, so it might possibly affect the games listed on the Sales Ranking, since those sales are NOT added afterwards.

 

[horuhe]

Starting form this week, I will be post more introspective info about Rakuten and more comments, and maybe less pics.

We should see consistent holds for this Wednesday numbers.

 

[Ōkami]

Right now 22 3DS games have sold over a million units.

Mario Maker will be the 23rd and Sukiyaki could very well be the 24th, Monster Hunter XX and Dragon Quest XI will take more spots.

Monster Strike and Dragon Quest VIII too could also just hit that milestone too.

The system could end up with 28 million sellers, just one less than the Super Famicom.

 

[horuhe]

The system could end up with 28 million sellers, just one less than the Super Famicom.

What about DQM: Terry's Wonderland?

 

[Chris1964]

We should see consistent holds for this Wednesday numbers.

A general rule is we'll see something like 40-60% drops for week 52 and 30-50% rises for week 1.

 

[horuhe]

A general rule is we'll see something like 40-60% drops for week 52 and 30-50% rises for week 1.

Yeah, I think so. This time more towards 40% imo, though.

----------

This strikes me so hard... FFXV at 3,980yen.

Spoiler

Second hand, anyway.

 

[ethomaz]

I will give a try with my optimistic view for RE7...

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2017

[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD 2.8 Final Chapter Prologue (18 days) - 150,000
[PSV - PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (18 days) - 130,000
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 (11 days) - 50,000
[3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World (11 days) - 50,000
[PS4 - PSV] Valkyria Revolution (11 days) - 50,000
[PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard (6 days) - 300,000

 

[noshten]

One interesting thing about the Wii U's big sellers, it appears Japanese do like the community, online or multiplayer aspect of majority of the big sellers.

01. Splatoon: 1.606.372
02. Mario Kart 8: 1.319.051
03. New Super Mario Bros. U: 1.260.178
04. Super Mario Maker: 1.047.189
05. Wii Party U: 831.292
06. Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 789.947

I think it would be a mistake for Nintendo to figure out local/online multiplayer for a device like the switch. A lot of their big selling games on their console had local multiplayer aspects yet didn't have an online mode. Yet it appears even on their console people do enjoy additional ways to interact with other players. Whether it be online MK, Splatoon - sharing levels on SMM(now via street pass which for Japan is perfectly suitable), SSB where the 3DS version somewhat fulfilled that actual capacity. Portability of Switch can somewhat ensure that LAN and Multiplayer might be a bigger focus. The marketing also somewhat pointed to this - even if it was probably more focused on the West. Japan simply has the big games and I'm guessing a big Splatoon tournament on the Switch is the best way to get the hype going. Spectator mode is obviously for me the most important thing that the Switch Splatoon needs, from there on if they just continue to roll out content for an year or two it will very easily be the top selling Switch game.

There is very few single player games that did well on the Wii U in Japan.


Anyhow as far as predictions for next year - I'd personally once again concentrate on my favorite Nintendo game. Since I'm always bullish and don't know the price of the Switch I'm going to speculate. Personally first year I'd fully expect the Switch to outsell Wii U LTD with ease in Japan provided there isn't any kind of shortages for the device and it isn't more expensive than $250 with Splatoon port. Also Splatoon in Japan to outsell the original's WW total something in the range of 4.5-5 million - that is the amount of Switches I'd expect sold in 2017 as well.
If it's $300 with Splatoon port I'd maybe go with a 3.5 mil firs year. $200 device with Splatoon is tough to call but I doubt they do it unless they are desperate.

Splatoon as a packin genius because it's a cultural phenomenon. Amiibo(along with other merch) sales in Japan and their prices in Japan demonstrate this. They can very easily just continue on with the game as a platform theme and make bank via merchandise and Splatfest licensing. Having your brand there for potentially millions of players proved pretty hilarious in Japan with the type of things that had Splatfests over there. Concerts and fresh fashion themed or art mobile apps could be fun. Like designing your own Tshirt or other gear via a mobile app would be a pretty good tiein that potentially can be aimed at several different demographics.

 

[Dolgan]

I like predicting stuff...

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 26 to Jan 29):

[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD 2.8 Final Chapter Prologue (18 days) - 135.000
[PSV - PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (18 days) - 120.000
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 (11 days) - 70.000
[3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World (11 days) - 40.000
[PS4 - PSV] Valkyria Revolution (11 days) - 60.000
[PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard (6 days) - 310.000

 

[Chris1964]

Mario Maker for 3DS, even being a downport, showed its sales were limited from Wii U userbase.

I'm not so sure Splatoon was held so back, it was the de facto game and the only system seller for Wii U last 2 years.

 

[Kresnik258]

[PSV] SaGa: Scarlet Grace - 13

Rakuten Books Sales Ranking Week 52, 2016 (Dec 26 - Jan 01)

Uff, no legs SaGa. Might not even hang around in the top 20 long enough to see the New Year's boost

 

[horuhe]

Uff, no legs SaGa. Might not even hang around in the top 20 long enough to see the New Year's boost

I guess so. Especially since Nintendo titles are still strong and as an RPG more than -60% is expected.

 

[Eolz]

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 26 to Jan 29):

[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD 2.8 Final Chapter Prologue (18 days) - 127k
[PSV - PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (18 days) - 121k
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 (11 days) - 74k
[3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World (11 days) - 69k
[PS4 - PSV] Valkyria Revolution (11 days) - 86k
[PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard (6 days) - 212k

 

[L~A]

Right now 22 3DS games have sold over a million units.

Mario Maker will be the 23rd and Sukiyaki could very well be the 24th, Monster Hunter XX and Dragon Quest XI will take more spots.

Monster Strike and Dragon Quest VIII too could also just hit that milestone too.

The system could end up with 28 million sellers, just one less than the Super Famicom.

Hmm... Monster Strike has been selling steadily (as seen in Dengeki Top 50), so maybe yeah.

DQVIII is most definitely going to hit 1m, I think.

Starting form this week, I will be post more introspective info about Rakuten and more comments, and maybe less pics.

We should see consistent holds for this Wednesday numbers.

vaderno.jpg

Please don't stop with the pics, unless it really is too much of a bother to you.

 

[duckroll]

Uff, no legs SaGa. Might not even hang around in the top 20 long enough to see the New Year's boost

13 million copies sold. I see no problems there.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

What's the updated numbers for DQ8?

 

[Magicpaint]

What's the updated numbers for DQ8?

Yeah I'd like to know as well. Did it even hit 900k? Last number I saw was around 820k (Media Create).

 

[Fisico]

We saw it on top 50 Dengeki 3 and half a month ago

41 48 3DS &#12489;&#12521;&#12468;&#12531;&#12463;&#12456;&#12473;&#12488;VIII &#31354;&#12392;&#28023;&#12392;&#22823;&#22320;&#12392;&#21610;&#12431;&#12428;&#12375;&#23019;&#21531; &#12473;&#12463;&#12454;&#12455;&#12450;&#12539;&#12456;&#12491;&#12483;&#12463;&#12473; 15/08/27 1,311 915,125

Definitely sold extra thousands copies since then, so it should be around >925k

 

[thestopsign]

Hmm... Monster Strike has been selling steadily (as seen in Dengeki Top 50), so maybe yeah.

DQVIII is most definitely going to hit 1m, I think.

Are you assuming a discount priced release for DQVIII to push it over?

 

[Fisico]

It's been six months but I finally took time to update my monthly Famitsu Top 30 digital sales document.

There is now more than one year of data so I think we can consider the numbers to be more reliable now (there are even older data from famitsu, I might use them later on)

The point is to show how much extra digital sales the top 30 monthly sellers get each month by platform excluding special titles (like digital games only, or download cards like pokemon rgby and so on)
This way we can have a rough idea (famitsu number is still based on estimates after all) on what to expect for future titles.

First and foremost one easy-to-read graph

- There are ups and downs of course but the digital ratio tends to increase
- Overall the average digital sales seems to vary between 7-13% depending on the release schedule (with Pokemon and Youkai Watch the average value drops a lot obviously)
- The PS4 has the bigger average % hovering between 14-25% this year
- PSV is the second platform naturally with the more stable values between 9-15%
- Wii U well, there are just no games anymore so I will just stop tracking it like I did for PS3, I still use both for the overall average values though of course
- 3DS may be increasing (I think Chris made a comparison to show how Pokemon digital sales are growing, but going from 1 to 2% is not a huge achievement... yet) but its big games targeting young audiences probably explain why it's still the console with the lowest digital ratio overall between 2.5-7.5%

 

[Bruno MB]

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 26 to Jan 29):

[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD 2.8 Final Chapter Prologue (18 days) - 135.000
[PSV - PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (18 days) - 115.000
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 (11 days) - 60.000
[3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World (11 days) - 55.000
[PS4 - PSV] Valkyria Revolution (11 days) - 75.000
[PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard (6 days) - 275.000

 

[hiska-kun]

Right now 22 3DS games have sold over a million units.

Mario Maker will be the 23rd and Sukiyaki could very well be the 24th, Monster Hunter XX and Dragon Quest XI will take more spots.

Monster Strike and Dragon Quest VIII too could also just hit that milestone too.

The system could end up with 28 million sellers, just one less than the Super Famicom.

Hmm... Monster Strike has been selling steadily (as seen in Dengeki Top 50), so maybe yeah.

DQVIII is most definitely going to hit 1m, I think.

Monster Strike won't ever reach the million units, at least according to Famitsu and MC. The game still hasn't sold through the first shipment and it's been discounted at every store and sold for ¥1.000 or less.

According to Media Create, first shipment in Japan was:

01./00. [3DS] Monster Strike <RPG> (Mixi) {2015.12.17} (¥4.860) - 437.903 / NEW <46,26%> [Units shipped => 946.613]

According to Famitsu, first shipment is less than 970k:

02./01. [3DS] Monster Strike <RPG> (Mixi) {2015.12.17} (¥4.860) - 140.479 / 777.188 <80-100%> (-34%)

According to Mixi the game reached 1 million shipped copies in Japan+Asia at launch.

On the other side, according to Dengeki Monster Strike might reach one million copies sold, since the shipment was bigger for them, over 1M (around ~1.030k).

01./00. [3DS] Monster Strike (Mixi) {2015.12.17} - 466.517 / NEW <45%>

But probably their shipped number is wrong, it doesn't match with Japan + Asia shipment report from Mixi.

The sure thing is that an overshipped and discounted game won't recieve an extra shipment, so one million (at retail) is out of question for Famitsu and Media Create.

 

[horuhe]

Please don't stop with the pics, unless it really is too much of a bother to you.

I won't stop, don't worry. It's more about frequency. The week's releases are a lock for sure.

The game still hasn't sold through the first shipment and it's been discounted at every store and sold for ¥1.000 or less.

Even less than 500yen. The other day even the first Yo-Kai Watch was at 198yen.

 

[noobie]

It's been six months but I finally took time to update my monthly Famitsu Top 30 digital sales document.

There is now more than one year of data so I think we can consider the numbers to be more reliable now (there are even older data from famitsu, I might use them later on)

The point is to show how much extra digital sales the top 30 monthly sellers get each month by platform excluding special titles (like digital games only, or download cards like pokemon rgby and so on)
This way we can have a rough idea (famitsu number is still based on estimates after all) on what to expect for future titles.

First and foremost one easy-to-read graph

- There are ups and downs of course but the digital ratio tends to increase
- Overall the average digital sales seems to vary between 7-13% depending on the release schedule (with Pokemon and Youkai Watch the average value drops a lot obviously)
- The PS4 has the bigger average % hovering between 14-25% this year
- PSV is the second platform naturally with the more stable values between 9-15%
- Wii U well, there are just no games anymore so I will just stop tracking it like I did for PS3, I still use both for the overall average values though of course
- 3DS may be increasing (I think Chris made a comparison to show how Pokemon digital sales are growing, but going from 1 to 2% is not a huge achievement... yet) but its big games targeting young audiences probably explain why it's still the console with the lowest digital ratio overall between 2.5-7.5%

Thank you. very interested to see FFXV digital ratio. I doubt it will be above 10% for first month

 

[Hero of Legend]

So are we getting numbers from either today (Wed) or are both Famitsu and MC on vacation this week?

 

[horuhe]

Rakuten Sales Ranking December, 2016 (Dec 01 - Dec 31)

01./00. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo) - *Rakuten Books*
02./0x. [3DS] Pokémon Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.) - *Rakuten Books*
03./0x. [3DS] Pokémon Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.) - *Rakuten Books*
04./00. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo) - *Joshin Web*
05./00. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5) - *Rakuten Books*
06./00. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5) - *Joshin Web*
07./0x. [3DS] Pokémon Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.) - *Joshin Web*
08./00. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life <ACT> (Sega) - *Rakuten Books*
09./0x. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) - *Rakuten Books*
10./00. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5) - *Furuhon Ichiba*
11./0x. [3DS] Pokémon Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.) - *Joshin Web*
12./00. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life <ACT> (Sega) - *Joshin Web*
13./0x. [WiiU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) - *Rakuten Books*
14./00. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! <TBL> (Nintendo) - *Joshin Web*
15./00. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! <TBL> (Nintendo) - *Rakuten Books*
16./0x. [3DS] Pokémon Sun / Moon Dual Pack <RPG> (Pokémon Co.) - *Spec Union*
17./00. [PSV] SaGa: Scarlet Grace <RPG> (Square Enix) - *Rakuten Books*
18./00. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5) - *Spec Union*
19./0x. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV <RPG> (Square Enix) - *Rakuten Books*
20./0x. [3DS] PriPara Mezameyo! Megami no Dress Design <ACT> (Takara Tomy) - *Rakuten Books*

Rakuten Pre-Orders Ranking December, 2016 (Dec 01 - Dec 31)

01./0x. [3DS] Monster Hunter XX <ACT> (Capcom) - *Joshin Web*
02./0x. [PS4] Resident Evil 7 (Grotesque Ver.) <ACT> (Capcom) - *Rakuten Books*
03./0x. [3DS] Monster Hunter XX <ACT> (Capcom) - *Rakuten Books*
04./00. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Harmony Killing <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft) - *Rakuten Books*
05./0x. **No Info Provided*

Rakuten Ranking November, 2016 (Nov 01 - Nov 30)

***WARNING***

* Note: Games on the Rakuten Rankings are based on sales on Rakuten Ichiba, the biggest e-commerce website in Japan. More information at http://ranking.rakuten.co.jp/monthly/101164/
** Note 2: Games on the Pre-Orders Ranking are counted as net sales, so it might possibly affect the games listed on the Sales Ranking, since those sales are NOT added afterwards.

 

[casiopao]

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 26 to Jan 29):

[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD 2.8 Final Chapter Prologue (18 days) - 137k
[PSV - PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (18 days) - 130k
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 (11 days) - 51k
[3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World (11 days) - 84k
[PS4 - PSV] Valkyria Revolution (11 days) - 56k
[PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard (6 days) - 171k

13 million copies sold. I see no problems there.

At least it beat XV in Amazon review. Take that fraudBata.^^

 

[horuhe]

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 26 to Jan 29):

[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD 2.8 Final Chapter Prologue (18 days) - 143.697
[PSV - PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (18 days) - 118.845
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 (11 days) - 68.452
[3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World (11 days) - 71.496
[PS4 - PSV] Valkyria Revolution (11 days) - 74.874
[PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard (6 days) - 194.302

 

[casiopao]

It's been six months but I finally took time to update my monthly Famitsu Top 30 digital sales document.

There is now more than one year of data so I think we can consider the numbers to be more reliable now (there are even older data from famitsu, I might use them later on)

The point is to show how much extra digital sales the top 30 monthly sellers get each month by platform excluding special titles (like digital games only, or download cards like pokemon rgby and so on)
This way we can have a rough idea (famitsu number is still based on estimates after all) on what to expect for future titles.

First and foremost one easy-to-read graph

- There are ups and downs of course but the digital ratio tends to increase
- Overall the average digital sales seems to vary between 7-13% depending on the release schedule (with Pokemon and Youkai Watch the average value drops a lot obviously)
- The PS4 has the bigger average % hovering between 14-25% this year
- PSV is the second platform naturally with the more stable values between 9-15%
- Wii U well, there are just no games anymore so I will just stop tracking it like I did for PS3, I still use both for the overall average values though of course
- 3DS may be increasing (I think Chris made a comparison to show how Pokemon digital sales are growing, but going from 1 to 2% is not a huge achievement... yet) but its big games targeting young audiences probably explain why it's still the console with the lowest digital ratio overall between 2.5-7.5%

Checking the graph really makes me wonder if Nintendo Switch is going to be able to further improve their digital sales there.O_O As long as the space on the Switch machine is minuscule, i can't see Nintendo getting tons of digital sales there.

 

[Fisico]

Thank you. very interested to see FFXV digital ratio. I doubt it will be above 10% for first month

Looking at >50k rpg titles on PS4 for the past 12 months

Dec 15 : Fallout 4 => 9.15%
Jan 16 : Dragon Quest Builders => 21.85%
Mar 16 : Dark Souls 3 => 23.07%
May 16 : Dragon Quest Heroes II => 16.36%
Jul 16 : Toukiden 2 => 26.02%
Aug 16 : Tales of Berseria => 11.14%
Sep 16 : Persona 5 => 13.47%
Sep 16 : Utawarerumono => 13.99%
Oct 16 : SAO Hollow Realization => 34,52%
Oct 16 : World of Final Fantasy => 15.62%
Nov 16 : SD Gundam GGG => 24.87%

Closest titles, both sales wise and in target audience, are of course Tales of Berseria and Persona 5 which had an extra 11 and 13% digital sales on PS4.

Nothing has been below 9% so far, however

- FFXV is the first title to be "this" big on PS4 so a lower ratio on average is to be expected
- Also we all know it but the retail channel was stuffed and the game, while still no on bomba bins, had its price drop day after day, it's definitely the kind of thing which will not help digital sales
- However in term of different SKU and heavy promotion for the retail release I see it as somehow similar to P5 and ToB, I especially didn't expect the latter to have as many digital sales as it did seeing it was the very first entry in the series to have a digital version day one.

Saying all that a value in the 8-12% range is to be expected I think, which would put it around 70-105k digital sales.

Checking the graph really makes me wonder if Nintendo Switch is going to be able to further improve their digital sales there.O_O As long as the space on the Switch machine is minuscule, i can't see Nintendo getting tons of digital sales there.

If there's a SD slot I don't see why not, just look at the internal storage of PSVita (0 on 1000 model and 4Go on 2000).
Now if it will be pushed heavily by Nintendo or not is another matter (hint : it probably won't)

 

[hiska-kun]

So are we getting numbers from either today (Wed) or are both Famitsu and MC on vacation this week?

Famitsu should update on time (they're always on time when Media Create is late).
4gamer is on vacation until the 6th (lucky them), so until Friday no Media Create numbers.
Still, gamer.ne should update on thursday with MC Top 30
(no harfware though). MC official website will update thursday or friday.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

It's been six months but I finally took time to update my monthly Famitsu Top 30 digital sales document.

There is now more than one year of data so I think we can consider the numbers to be more reliable now (there are even older data from famitsu, I might use them later on)

The point is to show how much extra digital sales the top 30 monthly sellers get each month by platform excluding special titles (like digital games only, or download cards like pokemon rgby and so on)
This way we can have a rough idea (famitsu number is still based on estimates after all) on what to expect for future titles.

First and foremost one easy-to-read graph

- There are ups and downs of course but the digital ratio tends to increase
- Overall the average digital sales seems to vary between 7-13% depending on the release schedule (with Pokemon and Youkai Watch the average value drops a lot obviously)
- The PS4 has the bigger average % hovering between 14-25% this year
- PSV is the second platform naturally with the more stable values between 9-15%
- Wii U well, there are just no games anymore so I will just stop tracking it like I did for PS3, I still use both for the overall average values though of course
- 3DS may be increasing (I think Chris made a comparison to show how Pokemon digital sales are growing, but going from 1 to 2% is not a huge achievement... yet) but its big games targeting young audiences probably explain why it's still the console with the lowest digital ratio overall between 2.5-7.5%

Looks like I was wrong. Though PS4 average was 10-15% but its surprisingly more inline with the West than I had thought with 15-20%.

 

[L~A]

Are you assuming a discount priced release for DQVIII to push it over?

I didn't think of that, but I guess they could do that leading to DQXI. Besides, DQVII did get a Ultimate Hits release, so I think it's only a matter of time until DQVIII gets one.

Monster Strike won't ever reach the million units, at least according to Famitsu and MC.

Yeah, I was thinking of Dengeki specifically.

So are we getting numbers from either today (Wed) or are both Famitsu and MC on vacation this week?

Media Create is tomorrow (Jan. 6th), Famitsu is January 6th.

4gamer is on vacation until the 6th (lucky them), so until Friday no Media Create numbers.

Actually, it's January 5th (Friday), and they also said numbers for Week 51 and 52 would be both out on the 5th (well, we already have those for Week 51). Never mind, data is on the 6th, though their vacations end on the 5th.

By the way, I just checked and Famitsu won't have numbers before Friday:

&#8251;&#27425;&#22238;&#26356;&#26032;&#12399;&#12289;2017&#24180;1&#26376;6&#26085;&#65288;&#37329;&#65289;&#12392;&#12394;&#12426;&#12414;&#12377;&#12290;

http://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/

It's like they used all their "on-timeness" with the two weeks 4Gamer was late, and therefore had to delay this week's numbers

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Looking at >50k rpg titles on PS4 for the past 12 months

Dec 15 : Fallout 4 => 9.15%
Jan 16 : Dragon Quest Builders => 21.85%
Mar 16 : Dark Souls 3 => 23.07%
May 16 : Dragon Quest Heroes II => 16.36%
Jul 16 : Toukiden 2 => 26.02%
Aug 16 : Tales of Berseria => 11.14%
Sep 16 : Persona 5 => 13.47%
Sep 16 : Utawarerumono => 13.99%
Oct 16 : SAO Hollow Realization => 34,52%
Oct 16 : World of Final Fantasy => 15.62%
Nov 16 : SD Gundam GGG => 24.87%

Closest titles, both sales wise and in target audience, are of course Tales of Berseria and Persona 5 which had an extra 11 and 13% digital sales on PS4.

Nothing has been below 9% so far, however

- FFXV is the first title to be "this" big on PS4 so a lower ratio on average is to be expected
- Also we all know it but the retail channel was stuffed and the game, while still no on bomba bins, had its price drop day after day, it's definitely the kind of thing which will not help digital sales
- However in term of different SKU and heavy promotion for the retail release I see it as somehow similar to P5 and ToB, I especially didn't expect the latter to have as many digital sales as it did seeing it was the very first entry in the series to have a digital version day one.

Saying all that a value in the 8-12% range is to be expected I think, which would put it around 70-105k digital sales.

Interesting so there is a good chance that the game might reach 1 million sales when all is said and done.

First and perhaps the only million seller on PS4.

 

[hiska-kun]

So no numbers today neither for Famitsu. On Friday 6th both trackers will be out for sure. Still, Media Create Top 30 might be out tomorrow thanks to gamer.ne (no hardware, though).

 

[Chris1964]

Monster Strike with digital and price clearance at its unsold copies at retail will clear 1m sales. It should be there already.
Dragon Quest VIII had showed good legs after its first week. It will be more difficult for it but 1m will eventually come.

 

[Eolz]

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 26 to Jan 29):

[PSV - PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (18 days) - 1300k

Hmmmmm

 

[noshten]

Mario Maker for 3DS, even being a downport, showed its sales were limited from Wii U userbase.

I'm not so sure Splatoon was held so back, it was the de facto game and the only system seller for Wii U last 2 years.

I think there isn't really a question whether Splatoon was held back by the Wii U. You mention it's a system seller but there is only so many consoles any system seller is able to push.
Splatoon released with 2.3 million Wii U sold right now Wii U is around 3.2 million. I think the upgrades, amiibos, marketing, concerts etc helped it's long tentacles. It's pretty much the only console game this gen that will get anywhere near 2 million in Japan and the first one since the Wii. Most of the time Splatoon was out it wasn't even bundled with the WiiU as Nintendo preferred to maximize profits and actually raised the price of WiiUs instead of aggressively bundling the game at a lower price point.
If it was a game on the prefer method of playing in Japan aka on a handheld/mobile device it would not be as hampered.

I think it has a chance to outsell New Super Mario Brothers Wii in Japan if it's bundled with the Switch fairly quickly. As long as the Switch isn't priced outrageously and closer to 3DS launch price than Wii U launch pricing. If that happens it would probably be making the "top 10 of all time best selling games in Japan".

The game is simply a very good choice of a pack-in because of the way the updates were released and it's focus is on multiplayer with both competitive/non competitive options. I'm interesting learning more about the "changes" since those are very important for the success of the game Westward - things like Spectator mode, Tournament Mode, Twich/Nico integration, better account system, better matchmaking, regional matchmaking, more community features etc
The best thing is that Splatoon doesn't necessarily need to have all these things at launch - if Switch is able to support them they might be updates in 3, 6, 12 or 24 months.
Anyhow expecting the Splatoon big reveals to happen at the eventual big tournament Nintendo is planning.

 

[Chris1964]

That 3DS had much bigger user base doesn't automatically mean it has much bigger sales potential for every game/genre. There were 3 other ports on 3DS before Mario Maker that didn't have the same behavior with Mario Maker and another one coming soon.

Splatoon was pushed hard on Wii U from Nintendo, it didn't sell on auto pilot, we'll see soon how much of that power it still has and how many sales were lost because of Wii U.

Splatoon 2 will be a different case but sales of first Splatoon on Switch will show where it will head.

 

[Oregano]

I think it depends on how much untapped appeal there is in local multiplayer. The bigger userbase is just a nice bonus.

 

[duckroll]

I think if Nintendo is serious about the Switch being a big success in Japan, they should call Square Enix right away and offer to fund a 30 million dollar SaGa game.

 

[noshten]

That 3DS had much bigger user base doesn't automatically mean it has much bigger sales potential for every game/genre. There were 3 other ports on 3DS before Mario Maker that didn't have the same behavior with Mario Maker and another one coming soon.

Splatoon was pushed hard on Wii U from Nintendo, it didn't sell on auto pilot, we'll see soon how much of that power it still has and how many sales were lost because of Wii U.

Splatoon 2 will be a different case but sales of first Splatoon on Switch will show where it will head.

We are talking about the biggest console game since the Wii. That for the first time will make it's way to handheld/console hybrid system. We are also talking about a game that according to rumors will be packed into the Switch. So the question mainly stems to what exactly is Switch's potential in its first two years on the market. The Switch will probably be frontloaded due to the initial lineup of games - we are talking about a system that will receive Splatoon as a pack-in and games like Pokemon*, MH, DQ, MKSwitch, New Mario in it's first year.

Splatoon Switch for all intensive purposes can be Splatoon 2 depending on how many additional updates they add to the game over time. I mentioned it previously but it doesn't really make too much sense in actually doing a sequel if they plan to treat Splatoon as a Platform. Just continue to roll out updates, leave it as a packin for Switch, possibly do some cross promotion via mobile spin-offs which are integrated in the Nintendo Account system and profit.

 

[viHuGi]

Numbers?

 

[Shizuka]

Numbers?

So no numbers today neither for Famitsu. On Friday 6th both trackers will be out for sure. Still, Media Create Top 30 might be out tomorrow thanks to gamer.ne (no hardware, though).

.

 

[viHuGi]

.

Damn.