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[MANUELF]

PREDICTION LEAGUE MAY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from May 1 to May 28):

[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware [3rd month] (28 days) - 250000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe [2nd month] (28 days) - 300000
[PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (4 days) - 15000
[NSW] Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers (3 days) - 10000

 

[ZSaberLink]

You don't target western market and not put on something as popular as PS4 with a huge install base where third party Japanese publishers have found the most success. Is there a third party game that has found huge success in the west being just on Nintendo platform? I am talking dark souls, nioh, nier automata, persona level success atleast not huge like ff games. The only one I can think of is mh4 and personally that was mostly a success because it was bundled with the release of a new better version of the 3ds imo and even that we are talking less than a million sales.

No one is forgetting switch is not exclusively handheld but the majority of the fanbase treats it as more of a handheld than a home console because it is underpowered.

Plenty of Japanese games have failed on PS4 as well. Bravely Default sold 1M in the West right? Sonic like Hero of Legend said. Problem is nothing has sold on a Monster Hunter level scale on PS4 in Japan. It'd be fine to also put the game on PS4, but it better be on a portable for the vast majority of sales. This isn't an either/or. Pretty much all reasonable people are saying is that it shouldn't be a home console EXCLUSIVE. Given the Switch is basically the only new handheld, it makes sense to put it on Switch at least. Actually iirc, Kingdom Hearts 3DS actually sold better in the US than it did in Japan (like 400K+ there).

 

[sense]

Just curious, but what level of western success are you expecting of a hypothetical ps4 monster Hunter? (Numbers)

Imo a well made decent looking mh PS4 game could sell around 1 to 1.5 million ltd outside Japan. Anyways, It is not about what I am expecting but what capcom would expect. They would look at something like souls as the initial goal atleast. Obviously when we are talking PS4 MH, there is every possibility an easy port to steam/xb1 is also on the cards so the potential increases.

Plenty of Japanese games have failed on PS4 as well. Bravely Default sold 1M in the West right? Sonic like Hero of Legend said. Problem is nothing has sold on a Monster Hunter level scale on PS4 in Japan. It'd be fine to also put the game on PS4, but it better be on a portable for the vast majority of sales. This isn't an either/or. Pretty much all reasonable people are saying is that it shouldn't be a home console EXCLUSIVE. Given the Switch is basically the only new handheld, it makes sense to put it on Switch at least. Actually iirc, Kingdom Hearts 3DS actually sold better in the US than it did in Japan (like 400K+ there).

The argument is not whether PS4 also had failed Japanese games. If you are a publisher and are targeting western audience and looking at the reception and coverage of games like souls games, nioh, nier, persona 5 are getting compared to something like bravely default which platform would make the most sense? I am not expecting the game to be PS4 exclusive and do expect a switch release as well. My only point is switch exclusive can't be the logical choice for western success just because it has a docked mode.

 

[DrWong]

PREDICTION LEAGUE MAY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from May 1 to May 28):

[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware [3rd month] (28 days) - 230K
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe [2nd month] (28 days) - 330K
[PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (4 days) - 14K
[NSW] Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers (3 days) - 17K

 

[dno_1966]

PREDICTION LEAGUE MAY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from May 1 to May 28):

[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware [3rd month] (28 days) - 225000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe [2nd month] (28 days) - 240000
[PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (4 days) - 10000
[NSW] Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers (3 days) - 12000

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I mean, I'm really just trying to say that everyone keeps bringing up this Capcom quote as if it indicates a PS4 MH when it could just as easily be referring to the Switch.

It's undeniable that MH has grown in the west on the 3DS, so I don't really think there needs to be other examples of western success stories when MH itself is one and that's what we're talking about. But if I have to give other examples, then I'd say Bravely Default was a success, as well as Kingdom Hearts 3D, Super Street Fighter IV 3D and Fantasy Life.

Edit: And that's just in regards to more recent platforms (the Wii U didn't have much success in general). The Wii and DS of course had more examples of successful third party games.

This was in the very same report that Capcom predicted 100 million PS4s and 40-50 million XB1s by 2020. If you want to grow the franchise overseas, why would you be referring to a new Nintendo console that has not even launched, rather than the most successful console of the generation?

 

[jonno394]

Imo a well made decent looking mh PS4 game could sell around 1 to 1.5 million ltd outside Japan. Anyways, It is not about what I am expecting but what capcom would expect. They would look at something like souls as the initial goal atleast. Obviously when we are talking PS4 MH, there is every possibility an easy port to steam/xb1 is also on the cards so the potential increases.

When you put it like that then, imo Capcom must surely realise that a PS4 only MH will actually have a higher chance of declining in sales over previous 3ds versions (Bloodborne as a PS4 exclusive sold over 2m, Dark souls 3 as a multi title sold somewhere over 3m) so they must see a PS4/Swith as a necessity to still get over 4m sales.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

You don't target western market and not put on something as popular as PS4 with a huge install base where third party Japanese publishers have found the most success. Is there a third party game that has found huge success in the west being just on Nintendo platform? I am talking dark souls, nioh, nier automata, persona level success atleast not huge like ff games. The only one I can think of is mh4 and personally that was mostly a success because it was bundled with the release of a new better version of the 3ds imo and even that we are talking less than a million sales.

No one is forgetting switch is not exclusively handheld but the majority of the fanbase treats it as more of a handheld than a home console because it is underpowered.

Monster Hunter 4U shipped over a million month 2. It did 1.5 million in the west. Japanese number was 2.6 million if I have my numbers correct. Generations did 800k in the West. These are the baselines. None of those games you listed besides Dark Souls outdid MH on 3DS' western numbers alone. Only Persona outdid Generations.

The baseline for PS4 MH needs to be better than 1.5 million in the west. Persona 5, Nier, Nioh numbers would not be impressive.

Also, the series is going to have a huge popularity jump in the West with the next iteration on new hardware. Getting away from the 3DS is going to do them huge favors.

 

[megaStryke]

Imo a well made decent looking mh PS4 game could sell around 1 to 1.5 million ltd outside Japan. Anyways, It is not about what I am expecting but what capcom would expect. They would look at something like souls as the initial goal atleast. Obviously when we are talking PS4 MH, there is every possibility an easy port to steam/xb1 is also on the cards so the potential increases.

The thing to consider is whether those potential Western sales will offset the loss of guaranteed Japan sales by putting the game on a stationary platform. Also keep in mind that the Monster Hunter series has been produced rather inexpensively as it has more or less maintained the same hardware spec profile for over a decade. The jump to HD platforms will introduce wild new production costs, meaning market success will be that much more important.

The number range you tossed out for a PS4 game is 1-1.5 million out West. And XB1? Might as well not even consider that one for all the good it will do in Japan. That is chump change when the games can easily pull more than double that just in a single country on a handheld platform. If the next entry does come to PS4, it will be a port of a handheld version rather than an exclusive.

 

[sense]

When you put it like that then, imo Capcom must surely realise that a PS4 only MH will actually have a higher chance of declining in sales over previous 3ds versions (Bloodborne as a PS4 exclusive sold over 2m, Dark souls 3 as a multi title sold somewhere over 3m) so they must see a PS4/Swith as a necessity to still get over 4m sales.

Monster Hunter 4U shipped over a million month 2. It did 1.5 million in the west. Japanese number was 2.6 million if I have my numbers correct. Generations did 800k in the West. These are the baselines. None of those games you listed besides Dark Souls outdid MH on 3DS' western numbers alone. Only Persona outdid Generations.

The baseline for PS4 MH needs to be better than 1.5 million in the west. Persona 5, Nier, Nioh numbers would not be impressive.

Also, the series is going to have a huge popularity jump in the West with the next iteration on new hardware. Getting away from the 3DS is going to do them huge favors.

The thing to consider is whether those potential Western sales will offset the loss of guaranteed Japan sales by putting the game on a stationary platform. Also keep in mind that the Monster Hunter series has been produced rather inexpensively as it has more or less maintained the same hardware spec profile for over a decade. The jump to HD platforms will introduce wild new production costs, meaning market success will be that much more important.

The number range you tossed out for a PS4 game is 1-1.5 million out West. And XB1? Might as well not even consider that one for all the good it will do in Japan. That is chump change when the games can easily pull more than double that just in a single country on a handheld platform. If the next entry does come to PS4, it will be a port of a handheld version rather than an exclusive.

For the love of God, I do not expect the game to be PS4 only....

 

[Oregano]

You don't target western market and not put on something as popular as PS4 with a huge install base where third party Japanese publishers have found the most success. Is there a third party game that has found huge success in the west being just on Nintendo platform? I am talking dark souls, nioh, nier automata, persona level success atleast not huge like ff games. The only one I can think of is mh4 and personally that was mostly a success because it was bundled with the release of a new better version of the 3ds imo and even that we are talking less than a million sales.

No one is forgetting switch is not exclusively handheld but the majority of the fanbase treats it as more of a handheld than a home console because it is underpowered.

If NiOH counts then Fantasy Life, Youkai Watch and Bravely Default are all around the same ballpark.

 

[jonno394]

For the love of God, I do not expect the game to be PS4 only....

Calm down....

 

[cheesekao]

The thing to consider is whether those potential Western sales will offset the loss of guaranteed Japan sales by putting the game on a stationary platform. Also keep in mind that the Monster Hunter series has been produced rather inexpensively as it has more or less maintained the same hardware spec profile for over a decade. The jump to HD platforms will introduce wild new production costs, meaning market success will be that much more important.

The number range you tossed out for a PS4 game is 1-1.5 million out West. And XB1? Might as well not even consider that one for all the good it will do in Japan. That is chump change when the games can easily pull more than double that just in a single country on a handheld platform. If the next entry does come to PS4, it will be a port of a handheld version rather than an exclusive.

Who's talking about it being only on PS4?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

When you put it like that then, imo Capcom must surely realise that a PS4 only MH will actually have a higher chance of declining in sales over previous 3ds versions (Bloodborne as a PS4 exclusive sold over 2m, Dark souls 3 as a multi title sold somewhere over 3m) so they must see a PS4/Swith as a necessity to still get over 4m sales.

Bloodborne's 2 million was in 6 months before the expansion. If they are looking at Souls/Bloodborne, we're looking at sales of 3-4 million overseas, which is what the series does now globally iirc.

 

[Principate]

Bloodborne's 2 million was in 6 months before the expansion. If they are looking at Souls/Bloodborne, we're looking at sales of 3-4 million overseas, which is what the series does now globally iirc.

The fact the sales hasn't been reported since then doesn't exactly help your point. 2 million is the cap so far we've seen for Japanese exclusives on the PS4 or there about. Mainline MH games sell 4.1 million in Japan alone. If your talking about Xb1 PC and PS4 then yes I agree though at that point they may as well port to switch.

 

[cheesekao]

-

 

[Principate]

The last MH that did that was MH4 in 2013. MH4U and X had western sales and are both at 4.1 and 4.2

An a G version and a Spin off. Lower sales expectations on those.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

For the love of God, I do not expect the game to be PS4 only....

Where did I say PS4 only? If the assumption is that the PS4 is going to be where most of the sales are generated in the West because of third party success then imo the game needs to largely surpass what the 3DS games did.

Multiplat, Exclusive, doesnt really matter. Persona 5, Nier, Nioh sales in the west is not anything the series hasnt seen on Wii or 3DS. A multiplat MH that only made 1.5 million units in the west would be disappointing.

If they want to actually grow the series we are looking at 2+ million imo

 

[cheesekao]

An a G version and a Spin off. Lower sales expectations on those.

Ninja'd.

 

[sense]

Calm down....

I am calm but don't understand comments immediately assuming I am talking about it being PS4 exclusive when all I am doing is reading between the lines of what capcom has said and the current trend of games moving to PS4 that it is very likely PS4 version is in the cards. For all I know, mh5 is probably 3ds/PS4 in Japan with a switch version down the line. Either they are making two different games (one for each system) or a multiplatform game but my only point is that PS4 MH is most likely happening (I am sure some will bring up mh freedom unite as a joke but that won't likely be it)

 

[Maxinas]

Is there any other game that gets people more riled up then Monster Hunter's current exclusivity to Nintendo systems?

 

[Principate]

Is there any other game that gets people more riled up then Monster Hunter's current exclusivity to Nintendo systems?

Breh MH's loss was the single largest blow to the Vita's sales potential in Japan and ensured the majority of the PSP audience moved over to the 3DS. It's also a large reason why the PSP itself did well in Japan. It's a big deal regardless of what happens to franchise. Very few franchises not named pokemon sell 2-3+ in Japan on a yearly basis.

It's why it garners as much conversation as it does.

 

[Deku89]

PREDICTION LEAGUE MAY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from May 1 to May 28):

[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware [3rd month] (28 days) - 220000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe [2nd month] (28 days) - 190000
[PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (4 days) - 13000
[NSW] Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers (3 days) - 12000

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Is there any other game that gets people more riled up then Monster Hunter's current exclusivity to Nintendo systems?

It's a huge franchise. The discussion is pretty relevant.

 

[Calm Mind]

PREDICTION LEAGUE MAY 2017



[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware [3rd month] (28 days) - 275000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe [2nd month] (28 days) - 375000
[PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (4 days) - 20000
[NSW] Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers (3 days) - 25000

 

[sense]

Where did I say PS4 only? If the assumption is that the PS4 is going to be where most of the sales are generated in the West because of third party success then imo the game needs to largely surpass what the 3DS games did.

Multiplat, Exclusive, doesnt really matter. Persona 5, Nier, Nioh sales in the west is not anything the series hasnt seen on Wii or 3DS. A multiplat MH that only made 1.5 million units in the west would be disappointing.

If they want to actually grow the series we are looking at 2+ million imo

1.5m is what I think a good mh ps4/steam would do for the first entry atleast. The series still isnt popular as souls games in the west. 2 to 3 million is what capcom would expect/target and If you expect 2 million or more sales in the west then PS4 has to be one of the platforms.

 

[jrDev]

I wonder if Capcom is still salty for making SF5 exclusive? No way MH is exclusive to PS4...

 

[Herb Alpert]

You'll get your MH the movie action game by a random western dev and you'll like it. Like in the movie you'll fight rathalos with an assault rifle and will be able to call for an airstrike. Edgy lines, mature story of monsters invading our world like in the movie, guns, probably babes.

You wanted a "modern" MH. Be Careful with what you wish for.

 

[Fdkn]

Have you seen Snake Pass on Switch?

what does Snake Pass show in a context of AAA games? UE4 does not mean graphical powerhouse, but FFVII Remake will be one.

 

[Principate]

You'll get your MH the movie action game by a random western dev and you'll like it. Like in the movie you'll fight rathalos with an assault rifle and will be able to call for an airstrike. Edgy lines, mature story of monsters invading our world like in the movie, guns, probably babes.

You wanted a "modern" MH. Be Careful with what you wish for.

It's of Ninja Theory's 4 projects.

 

[cheesekao]

I wonder if Capcom is still salty for making SF5 exclusive? No way MH is exclusive to PS4...

It's Capcom's own damn fault SFV bombed. It was an undercooked game.

 

[Kyoufu]

I wonder if Capcom is still salty for making SF5 exclusive? No way MH is exclusive to PS4...

SF5 wouldn't have fared much better if it was on Xbox as well. Woefully rushed game sorely lacking in content. Made for the competitive crowd and only bought by the competitive crowd.

 

[sense]

I wonder if Capcom is still salty for making SF5 exclusive? No way MH is exclusive to PS4...

Lmao sfv had bigger issues than being exclusive. The genre isn't strong and they released it half baked with minimal content on top of that.

 

[Ōkami]

Stores are starting to get promotional material for Dragon Quest XI.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

1.5m is what I think a good mh ps4/steam would do for the first entry atleast. The series still isnt popular as souls games in the west. 2 to 3 million is what capcom would expect/target and If you expect 2 million or more sales in the west then PS4 has to be one of the platforms.

If you can get 1.5 on the 3DS and its not enough for Capcom, why would 1.5 on the PS4 be good?

I'm just confused as to what people think a good result is if the plan is to "grow" the series.

 

[Seiniyta]

I think the next new Monster Hunter will still have 3DS as a base, but probably will have a Switch and PS4 version. Which basically is an upgraded version of the 3DS version (like the WiiU game)

And then the game after it will probably be Switch/PS4.

I don't think it's desirable for Capcom to solely focus on the PS4, especially with a Japanese focussed powerhouse as Monster Hunter that thrived on the 3DS.

 

[Zedark]

what does Snake Pass show in a context of AAA games? UE4 does not mean graphical powerhouse, but FFVII Remake will be one.

Nothing, nor does Dragon Quest Heroes I+II, which is why I made the slightly snarky counter-question.

 

[cheesekao]

If you can get 1.5 on the 3DS and its not enough for Capcom, why would 1.5 on the PS4 be good?

I'm just confused as to what people think a good result is if the plan is to "grow" the series.

1.5 + (However much it would sell on the Switch/3DS)

Also, MH has never officially sold more than 1 million the west.

 

[Principate]

SF5 wouldn't have fared much better if it was on Xbox as well. Woefully rushed game sorely lacking in content. Made for the competitive crowd and only bought by the competitive crowd.

I still can't think of a time where a game went from multiplatform to singleplatform and it worked out to be great success for them (by that I mean sold more than 2 million). Tomb Raider boooooooooombed relative to it's potential SFV bombed. Bloodborne for all accounts seems to have sold way less than DKS3. Third party exclusives are practically dead.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

1.5 + (However much it would sell on the Switch/3DS)

Also, MH has never officially sold more than 1 million the west.

Monster Hunter 4G is at 2.6 million in Japan. According to capcom 4G/4U sold 4.1 million world wide. So unless my math is incorrect yes it did sell over a million in the West.

 

[cheesekao]

I still can't think of a time where a game went from multiplatform to singleplatform and it worked out to be great success for them (by that I mean sold more than 2 million). Tomb Raider boooooooooombed relative to it's potential SFV bombed. Bloodborne for all accounts seems to have sold way less than DKS3. Third party exclusives are practically dead.

Who's arguing against that though? Would SFV have sold more had it been on the bone? Yes. Significantly more? Eh...

Monster Hunter 4G is at 2.6 million in Japan. According to capcop 4G/4U sold 4.1 million world wide. So unless my math is wrong yes it did sell over a million in the West.

You're assuming that 4G sold zero copies in Japan during that duration.

 

[Dark Cloud]

I think the next new Monster Hunter will still have 3DS as a base, but probably will have a Switch and PS4 version. Which basically is an upgraded version of the 3DS version (like the WiiU game)

And then the game after it will probably be Switch/PS4.

I don't think it's desirable for Capcom to solely focus on the PS4, especially with a Japanese focussed powerhouse as Monster Hunter that thrived on the 3DS.

I could see this. 3DS then PS4/Switch.

 

[Principate]

Who's arguing against that though? Would SFV have sold more had it been on the bone? Yes. Significantly more? Eh...


You're assuming that 4G sold zero copies in Japan during that duration.

Even still that would require selling over 500k

 

[Dark Cloud]

If FFVIIR comes to the Switch I hope people don't trash it. People wanted to see it get big multiplats and it would be one. Of course it wouldn't be as graphically as good as a PS4 version because I can already see a ton posts of "lol going to be such a horrible bad looking game on Switch!".

All that matters is the Switch gets these type of games.

 

[cheesekao]

Even still that would require selling over 500k

Which is why I said "officially" and "in the west". The last report we got was 1 million shipped and I have no idea how it did in the Asian market.

 

[Oregano]

I actually don't think Monster Hunter has any wider relevance for the industry now. It was only relevant in that it made PSP a credible competitor and made other publishers follow.

3DS didn't need it to be a success and no one followed it's lead. It's not going to change the PS4's fortunes and it's looking like third parties are completely irrelevant in determining whether Switch is a success or not.(which should probably worry them).

I still can't think of a time where a game went from multiplatform to singleplatform and it worked out to be great success for them (by that I mean sold more than 2 million). Tomb Raider boooooooooombed relative to it's potential SFV bombed. Bloodborne for all accounts seems to have sold way less than DKS3. Third party exclusives are practically dead.

Nier.

 

[Principate]

Which is why I said "officially" and "in the west". The last report we got was 1 million shipped and I have no idea how it did in the Asian market.

I think it's a reasonable expectation it's near and or long passed that mark. 4G actually charted well in the NPD it launched in.

I actually don't think Monster Hunter has any wider relevance for the industry now. It was only relevant in that it made PSP a credible competitor and made other publishers follow.

3DS didn't need it to be a success and no one followed it's lead. It's not going to change the PS4's fortunes and it's looking like third parties are completely irrelevant in determining whether Switch is a success or not.(which should probably worry them).



Nier.

Where's that brain tapping gif.

Over 2 million

edit: Consumer's followed it's lead have a look at the Vita's Ltd and compare it to the PSP

 

[LordKano]

I actually don't think Monster Hunter has any wider relevance for the industry now. It was only relevant in that it made PSP a credible competitor and made other publishers follow.

3DS didn't need it to be a success and no one followed it's lead. It's not going to change the PS4's fortunes and it's looking like third parties are completely irrelevant in determining whether Switch is a success or not.(which should probably worry them).



Nier.

Well yeah, they all decided to drop support for the Switch once they saw Disgaea 5 bombing after all. Inevitable consequence.

 

[Kyoufu]

I still can't think of a time where a game went from multiplatform to singleplatform and it worked out to be great success for them (by that I mean sold more than 2 million). Tomb Raider boooooooooombed relative to it's potential SFV bombed. Bloodborne for all accounts seems to have sold way less than DKS3. Third party exclusives are practically dead.

Bloodborne did extremely well for a new IP early on in PS4's lifespan though. You can't tell me that's not a successful venture for From and Sony just because it sold less than the 3rd entry in a popular multiplatform IP.

 

[Zedark]

If FFVIIR comes to the Switch I hope people don't trash it. People wanted to see it get big multiplats and it would be one. Of course it wouldn't be as graphically as good as a PS4 version because I can already see a ton posts of "lol going to be such a horrible bad looking game on Switch!".

All that matters is the Switch gets these type of games.

On the contrary, nearly every time we have seen a PS4/Switch multiplat people started trashing the PS4 version!

Spoiler

Granted, that's happened only twice, but still.