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[Boke1879]

Please come back and revisit this in 6 months to a year.

We dont know how successful or average Switch will be, it was always going to sell well in first 6 months to the hardcore fans anyway and sales results are just a function of shipping logistics.

Sony and MS and Nintendo have no Idea how well Switch will sell after 6 -12 months (after it has been adopted by the hardcore fans).

I was one of those people very unsure of the Switch. And yes we have to wait at least a year to see how it all pans out.

But I think the console handheld nature of it is going to work well. The thing is a hit in Japan so far and right now based on the info we have it's a hit in the states.

First party wise I think Nintendo is locked for the first year. Mario Kart, Splatoon 2, ARMS, and then they have a Mario game launching this Holiday season. So I think it's first year will look pretty good.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I think you should add "features" to that pyramid. Multiamedia functionality, online, stuff like that is a large factor.

 

[Primethius]

Please come back and revisit this in 6 months to a year.

We dont know how successful or average Switch will be, it was always going to sell well in first 6 months to the hardcore fans anyway and sales results are just a function of shipping logistics.

Sony and MS and Nintendo have no Idea how well Switch will sell after 6 -12 months (after it has been adopted by the hardcore fans).

No, I disagree with this assessment. While I definitely do think the long term success of Switch is up in the air, the way it launched and how much it sold is already a drastic step-up from the Wii U.

Besting the XB1 launch in March is impressive for Nintendo, even if it's just largely Nintendo fans. Because even then, it means at least they are regaining fans rather than bleeding them again .

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I kinda disagree that MS is focusing on the short term. I think it's a misconception, and that they're working on the long term more than what people are expecting. But they do it differently than Sony.

Microsoft is shifting the way the Xbox brand is earning money. Progressively, they're aiming for the service market. They're trying to maximize profits from their userbase, instead of focusing on its expansion. Xbox Game Pass, Xbox Live, service games, going for W10/Xbox games instead of exclusives, not funding many singleplayer Xbox games, it all seems to point at it. Scorpio, a powerful machine made for the premium userbase, isn't made to be massively sold, but to bank on their faithful userbase. Not to say they won't make efforts to expand their userbase ofc, but I'd say the focus has changed.

I don't know if it will work. We'll have to see. But to me, the plan is pretty obvious.

I was talking about long term plans to have a broader appeal. I wasn't saying they don't have long term plans at all.

 

[Fiendcode]

Please come back and revisit this in 6 months to a year.

We dont know how successful or average Switch will be, it was always going to sell well in first 6 months to the hardcore fans anyway and sales results are just a function of shipping logistics.

Sony and MS and Nintendo have no Idea how well Switch will sell after 6 -12 months (after it has been adopted by the hardcore fans).

Switch is the second best selling launch in NPD history and now eight weeks after launch is still heavily supply constrained. All this well outside the holiday season and up against a record stacked Q1 for the competitively priced competition.

I feel like we can probably set aside the narrative that this was an expected volume of sales, is only representative of hardcore Nintendo fans or that we can't take away any idea as to the system's trajectory for another 6-12 months. Switch did great, much better than most expected, seems to continue doing well and appears to be a desirable product for consumers in general. There's no need to downplay that, even at this stage the platform is behaving markedly different from Nintendo's disappointing last gen launches.

 

[Zedark]

Switch is the second best selling launch in NPD history and now eight weeks after launch is still heavily supply constrained. All this well outside the holiday season and up against a record stacked Q1 for the competitively priced competition.

I feel like we can probably set aside the narrative that this was an expected volume of sales, is only representative of hardcore Nintendo fans or that we can't take away any idea as to the system's trajectory for another 4-6 months. Switch did great, much better than most expected, seems to continue doing well and appears to be a desirable product for consumers in general. There's no need to downplay that, even at this stage the platform is behaving markedly different from Nintendo's disappointing last gen launches.

Yeah, saying it is not in the clear compared to the Wii U is nonsense, since we know the Wii U practically died after the first holiday period, when its sales dropped to 5 digits in the US in January. Switch will have sold quite a bit more than Wii U had at that point in time, and is still flying off the shelves, so holding on to a Wii U trajectory is nonsensical.

Whatever comes after that tier is still up for debate, naturally.

 

[LordKano]

I was talking about long term plans to have a broader appeal. I wasn't saying they don't have long term plans at all.

I know, I was explaining my reasoning as to why they don't plan to have a broader appeal as fast as Sony.

 

[geordiemp]

But I think the console handheld nature of it is going to work well. The thing is a hit in Japan so far and right now based on the info we have it's a hit in the states.

We dont know if its a hit or not, if Nintendo had shipped 3 million it would of sold out, if Ps4 had shipped more in first month it would of sold out, core fans do that to new consoles.

There is NO real indication at all in first 6 months how successful a console is as hardcore fans buy it as soon as they can anyway, everyone knows that deep down...

Its the non hardcore fans that determine wild success and whether there are roof top parties or not.

 

[geordiemp]

Switch is the second best selling launch in NPD history and now eight weeks after launch is still heavily supply constrained. All this well outside the holiday season and up against a record stacked Q1 for the competitively priced competition.
.

Does not mean anything really, first 3-6 month sales = production and logistics.

Most consoles are supply constrained in first 6 months, hey what a surprise, and if you make em quicker and ship them quicker they sell quicker.

If Ps4 had stuffed double into the channels first month it would also sold out, it does not tell you anything other than will be Fine / OK / good / very good / excellent / apple busting,

At least we know it wont be bad. Sales trajectory will be easier to estimate once your above something like 5 million and stock is widely available in shops, then you can hypothesise.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

We dont know if its a hit or not, if Nintendo had shipped 3 million it would of sold out, if Ps4 had shipped more in first month it would of sold out, core fans do that to new consoles.

There is NO real indication at all in first 6 months how successful a console is as hardcore fans buy it as soon as they can anyway, everyone knows that deep down...

Its the non hardcore fans that determine wild success and whether there are roof top parties or not.

Within 6 months it was obvious the PS4 was going to be a wild success, the X1 was going to be relevant in only North America and the UK and a flop everywhere else and the WiiU was dead in the water. I beg to differ that you can't tell how a console will play out in 6 months. Frankly you are wrong.

 

[Fiendcode]

We dont know if its a hit or not, if Nintendo had shipped 3 million it would of sold out, if Ps4 had shipped more in first month it would of sold out, core fans do that to new consoles.

There is NO real indication at all in first 6 months how successful a console is as hardcore fans buy it as soon as they can anyway, everyone knows that deep down...

Its the non hardcore fans that determine wild success and whether there are roof top parties or not.

We knew Wii U was screwed around 6 weeks in. That was the point the dissapointing sales metrics after week 1 started coming in and 3rd parties started backing off the system.

You saying these sales are simply hardcore fans is also a statement rooted in nothing but conjecture. People said the same about Wii way back, as if there are record numbers of Nintendo fans who'll show up in the first month and then just disappear. Odd how they didn't bother with Wii U.

 

[Fiendcode]

Does not mean anything really, first 3-6 month sales = production and logistics.

Most consoles are supply constrained in first 6 months, hey what a surprise, and if you make em quicker and ship them quicker they sell quicker.

If Ps4 had stuffed double into the channels first month it would also sold out, it does not tell you anything other than will be Fine / OK / good / very good / excellent / apple busting,

At least we know it wont be bad. Sales trajectory will be easier to estimate once your above something like 5 million and stock is widely available in shops, then you can hypothesise.

The only system in the US that was still constrained 6 months in was the Wii. I sincerely hope Switch is readily available by that point.

 

[hanspampel]

I kinda disagree that MS is focusing on the short term. I think it's a misconception, and that they're working on the long term more than what people are expecting. But they do it differently than Sony.

Microsoft is shifting the way the Xbox brand is earning money. Progressively, they're aiming for the service market. They're focusing to maximize profits from their userbase, while also trying on its expansion. Xbox Game Pass, Xbox Live, service games, going for W10/Xbox games instead of exclusives, not funding many singleplayer Xbox games, it all seems to point at it. Scorpio, a powerful machine made for the premium userbase, isn't made to be massively sold, but to bank on their faithful userbase. Not to say they won't make efforts to expand their userbase ofc, but I'd say the focus has changed.

I don't know if it will work. We'll have to see. But to me, the plan is pretty obvious.

FTFY

 

[geordiemp]

Within 6 months it was obvious the PS4 was going to be a wild success, the X1 was going to be relevant in only North America and the UK and a flop everywhere else and the WiiU was dead in the water. I beg to differ that you can't tell how a console will play out in 6 months. Frankly you are wrong.

OK maybe 2 -3 months then, the point still stands, we are in NPD MONTH 1, so we know nothing, I said good extrapolation iafter 6 months which is fair I think - you can then say if you think Switch will catch MS, Sony or neither.

Even WiiU sold out initially, but I cant be arsed to look up how many months it was before it hit a wall....Maybe 2 or 3.

https://mynintendonews.com/2015/01/16/npd-wii-u-closes-2014-with-bggest-month-of-sales-in-its-history/

I could not be bothered to look up WiiU sales by month....Its too early to call is my point with Deja vu links above.

I still think Switch = WiiU + 3DS eventually if Nintendo price cut as its expensive for a DS substitute.

 

[Bgamer90]

I feel people focusing on ONE thing tend to fall to the same trap MS kept falling into continuously since this gen started: which the magic bullet - that conceit that one and only thing made the PS4 successful and we find what it is then everything reverse.

Imagine a pyramid made up of three components.

Power
Games
Price

You need at least two of these to be successful - now I'm going to be generous and say that Xbox's software offering was superior to PS4 when it launched but the competition had the other two components, price and power.

I wouldn't say Microsoft focused on one thing with the Xbox One. The Xbox One from the jump was a jack of all trades -- a system pushed for its gaming features as well as its apps and media integration. The system would have done better early in the gen if it had more of a gaming (only) focus with things then spreading into media and other functions a few years after it launched.

Scorpio is a repeat of that situation - it will have the power but it will lack the price and games.

Not sure how anyone can say this before the games are shown and the price is announced. It doesn't have to be the cheapest box. It simply has to be a good price for what it offers. The PS4 during its first year or two was being bought by many to play games that were available on the cheaper Xbox 360 and PS3. Those games played much better on the PS4, and the PS4 was a solid price vs. the competition (i.e. The Xbox One) for what it did -- hence why the PS4 has a larger user base in North America than the Xbox One.

 

[Fiendcode]

OK maybe 2 -3 months then, the point still stands, we are in MONTH 1, so we know nothing, I said good extrapolation iafter 6 months which is fair I think - you can then say if you think Switch will catch MS, Sony or neither.

Even WiiU sold out initially, but I cant eb arsed to look up how many months it was before it hit a wall....Maybe 2 or 3.

Wii U was readily available in stores it's second week. That's really when it hit the wall.

8 weeks in and it's still tough to actually buy a Switch and it's already ahead of Wii U Nov+Dec 2012. Consoles aren't still generally sold out after 8 weeks, I think previously 360, Wii and PS4 were the only recent ones that still were at this point. Don't know about 6th gen or older though.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

OK maybe 2 -3 months then, the point still stands, we are in MONTH 1, so we know nothing, I said good extrapolation iafter 6 months which is fair I think - you can then say if you think Switch will catch MS, Sony or neither.

Even WiiU sold out initially, but I cant be arsed to look up how many months it was before it hit a wall....Maybe 2 or 3.

https://mynintendonews.com/2015/01/16/npd-wii-u-closes-2014-with-bggest-month-of-sales-in-its-history/

I could not be bothered to look up WiiU sales by month....Its too early to call is my point with Deja vu links above.

I still think Switch = WiiU + 3DS eventually if Nintendo price cut as its expensive for a DS substitute.

First 2-3 months? I would agree you can't get a full picture. You should have some encouraging or worrying signs across most regions by month 3 but to definitely be sure I agree with you. WiiU, the signs were appearing around 6 weeks but it took our first full 3 months of data to be sure it was going to be a no show in the US, about 6 weeks in Japan and varying periods in Europe.

With Switch thus far though, from what we can see in Japan it looks decent and it seems to be a marked improvement over the WiiU in many European regions (some signifcantly so, some better but still not great). By the time the next NPD comes out (mid may), we should have a pretty good handle on if the system is going to tail off or if it will at least remain relevant.

6 months in we will know if it's here to stay.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

Alright I can't anymore, I know slimysnake, he is not looking for attention, he believes this stuff. But how dare anyone have a different opinion, oh no! Yeah he likes his graphics, he is all for pro and Scorpio and all that, I'm not. He looks at Nintendo and sees a company who doesn't care about power, about moving the specs forward. I understand Nintendo is more about coming up with unique hardware which is fine but at the same time a part of me would love to see their properties be cutting edge graphically like in the N64 days. They can't compete that way with PS and Xbox so they try this method, worked with Wii, failed miserably with Wii U. He feels the Sony and MS way is better than what Nintendo's method is, and seeing the market I am going to assume most people agree with him.

And zelda is a Wii U game, LITERALLY a last gen console. He is absolutely right, zelda is a last gen game that got a port to a current gen system. Hopefully we don't have to wait another damn 5 years to see what a zelda game with more modern graphics looks like which I assume the switch will be able to do when developed properly for it. BOTW is beautiful but it's no PS4/one level game.

All of this is nonsense. You sound incredibly salty but let me give you the benefit of the doubt because it's hard to distinguish tone from an internet comment. When you frame any argument around it being controversial, you are intending on getting a bunch of replies most of them being dissent. And I don't care if he has a different opinion, his arguments were either misinformed or non-sense "it's just my opinion" is a weak defense if your factual arguments used to back up your opinion are crap.

Also this is going to blow your mind but power has never held the industry back or been the deciding factor the majority of customers. It may seem like that because the PS4 is technically the most powerful console for a number of years now and that's selling really well but everyone's taking its success the wrong way. The PS4 did well because of strong marketing and a healthy variety of good games and regardless of how powerful the PS4 is, it would've still done phenomenal with those factors. If anything the push to making every major game graphical showcases has led to a more bloated industry.

Also while Zelda might be a "port" it was released simultaneously along with the Wii U version, is the better version, and was the version to get as evidenced by its sales numbers. Saying it doesn't count is either feigning ignorance or an attempt downplaying the Switch's success which should and is being dismissed by anyone.

Honestly, I don't know what your trying to accomplish besides being woken up to a fact that has been known for years now: power doesn't matter.

 

[Fiendcode]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Zelda Switch the best selling launch title ever for NPD tracking?

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Zelda Switch the best selling launch title ever for NPD tracking?

Exclusive maybe. Third party not even close.

 

[Fiendcode]

Exclusive maybe. Third party not even close.

What multiplatform launch title sold more? BOTW itself is a multiplatform game really too.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

What multiplatform launch title sold more? BOTW itself is a multiplatform game really too.

I don't have time to look it up but I'm sure any of the maddens or cods or game like that that released at the PS3's launch undoubtedly outsold zelda seeing as how they would have released on both ps3 and 360

Yeah i know. That's why I'm counting both ps3 and 360.

If you're saying exclusively on switch vs exclusively on any other one console than probably.

 

[Bgamer90]

I'll just have to agree to disagree (especially about territories not owning an Xbox, yea that'll happen when MS doesn't give two shits about them).

Those territories would never move away from PlayStation though. This was evident last gen when the PS3 was still doing better than the Xbox 360 even when the PS3 had its bad press. Xbox 360 had titles aimed to these audiences early on but the system still didn't do much.

That's not to say that it's wrong for MS to try, it's more so to say that I can't see the Xbox brand growing at all in doing this since there's simply no interest in the console brand in these territories regardless. It's like what I said earlier about Nintendo. Nintendo could have various third party AAA titles but most people aren't going to move to Nintendo for those games since PlayStation/Xbox have been widely known as being the place to play them for many years thanks to 15+ years of better marketing, game support, and features.

Their Scorpio strategy comes off as incredibly stupid and short sighted (retain base vs. attempting to expand) and almost everything they are doing is attempting to cling on to market share instead of having a decent foot hold to expand later on, especially with a new generation.

That MS thinks that staying contained to US/UK 4 years into this gen is a smart idea speaks volumes about what they expect going forward. They haven't made many moves or attempted to do much for the start of next gen and that stuff doesn't happen over night.

I don't see how it's stupid. They are doing the same thing that Nintendo did when it was obvious that their portable devices weren't selling as well as they were previously. They made new versions that were bought by people as upgrades to what they already had, on top of some people that never owned the device it improved upon.

Microsoft can only really expand their userbase in territories in which the brand is relevant in. These territories previously knew the Xbox brand for being the best console to play multiplats and for a solid price. That ended with the Xbox One though. The reason why the PS4 is in the lead worldwide is greatly in part due to the gains the system made in North America and U.K. because of the Xbox brand losing the strengths of better power and price. Getting these strengths back will make Xbox One owners upgrade as well as some PS4 owners move over. This move is not going to put Xbox on the same level as PlayStation worldwide though and honestly, I can't see how that will ever happen unless Sony has a massive screw up. The PlayStation brand simply has more history and relevancy worldwide and this has always been the case.

It honestly reminds me of something like the GameCube. Good luck just trying to retain a base and play to your strengths when the other two competitors are making moves on everyone.

Many of GameCube's failures came from poor marketing and not jumping on trends. The system had pretty solid third party support (EA sports for example), exclusives, and was a solid price. On top of this, console gaming back in 2001 was far more exclusive dominant than it is now.

Hell, even with Scorpio they got one upped by the Pro a year earlier which will definitely have an impact on sales as some potential owners will have jumped on the Pro vs. Scorpio.

Some will but others held off. PS4 was pushed more as a "PS4+" while MS is pushing Scorpio almost as if it's a new box. There has been seemingly more buzz about the Scorpio than the PS4 Pro+ and I wouldn't be surprised if the Scorpio causes a larger percentage of Xbox One owners to upgrade in comparison to PS4 owners that upgraded to the PS4 Pro. I can't see Xbox ever catching up to the PS4's overall worldwide sales though.

Edit: Let's look at this holiday. Sony is gearing up with a plethora of absolutely massive markrting deals in some or gamings biggest IPs. Nintendo has Switch's first holiday season with a game from one of their biggest brands coming off a summer season with some pretty big titles as well. As for MS, the biggest thing of note right now is that they are reasing an enthusiast aimed console and hope that the XB1S can compete with the PS4/Switch.

Well, this is also on top of Xbox having its own console exclusives as well as the Xbox selling thanks to popular multiplats. I mean, people are taking these marketing deals that the PlayStation has this year as if they're new when they aren't. They've been around for a while this gen but yet Xbox consoles have still done well during the Holiday season. I can't see that changing now. If anything, the Xbox brand now getting the best looking multiplats should at least help in comparison to the earlier years this gen in which they didn't have that ON TOP of PlayStation also having marketing deals.

And maybe​ it's just me, but I see the success of Switch negatively affecting the second place console far more than I do the market leader.

I feel there's room for everyone to do well. The Switch isn't getting the popular AAA multiplats that people play on Xbox so I don't see how the success of the Switch will cause a deeply negative impact on the Xbox brand. Switch is doing very well but it still looks like its mostly being bought as a "secondary console". The advertisements for the Nintendo Switch have so far been aimed at 18-40 year olds that play games on Xbox and/or PlayStation so it seems that even Nintendo knows this and they don't mind it.

 

[thestopsign]

I don't have time to look it up but I'm sure any of the maddens or cods or game like that that released at the PS3's launch undoubtedly outsold zelda seeing as how they would have released on both ps3 and 360

Yeah i know. That's why I'm counting both ps3 and 360.

If you're saying exclusively on switch vs exclusively on any other one console than probably.

Uh no. No multiplatform launch game SKU has sold better in one month than Zelda.

 

[jroc74]

Power mattering for development is different than power mattering for sales. Especially more so 4 years in the generation.

If you're trying to tell me that Switch sold so much because of power, I don't know what to tell you given Nintendo & Sony's past history in the handheld space.

Exactly.

If that was the case the Vita would have sold alot more.

I feel people focusing on ONE thing tend to fall to the same trap MS kept falling into continuously since this gen started: which the magic bullet - that conceit that one and only thing made the PS4 successful and we find what it is then everything reverse.

Imagine a pyramid made up of three components.

Power
Games
Price

You need at least two of these to be successful - now I'm going to be generous and say that Xbox's software offering was superior to PS4 when it launched but the competition had the other two components, price and power.

Later on when MS decide to go full ham with the price cuts, PS4 still had two thing - power and games.

Scorpio is a repeat of that situation - it will have the power but it will lack the price and games.

I like this pyramid. I feel it's a good guide.

 

[Fiendcode]

I don't have time to look it up but I'm sure any of the maddens or cods or game like that that released at the PS3's launch undoubtedly outsold zelda seeing as how they would have released on both ps3 and 360

Yeah i know. That's why I'm counting both ps3 and 360.

If you're saying exclusively on switch vs exclusively on any other one console than probably.

COD3 was only a launch game on PS3 and Wii, the 360 version wouldn't really count as a launch game. Maybe that's where the confusion comes in but yes I mean among actual launch releases. I wouldn't include BOTW Wii U either.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

Uh no. No multiplatform launch game SKU has sold better in one month than Zelda.

Really madden 07 didn't sell more than a million on 360 and ps3 at launch? I don't have the numbers but that's kinda nuts if it didn't.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

COD3 was only a launch game on PS3 and Wii, the 360 version wouldn't really count as a launch game. Maybe that's where the confusion comes in but yes I mean among actual launch releases. I wouldn't include BOTW Wii U either.

Yeah then under those conditions I think Zelda would have to be because I don't know of any games that had near a 100% attach rate on a single console.

 

[Welfare]

Really madden 07 didn't sell more than a million on 360 and ps3 at launch? I don't have the numbers but that's kinda nuts if it didn't.

Madden 06 was the Xbox 360 launch.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

Madden 06 was the Xbox 360 launch.

That's not what i was saying.

If you see the conversation i had assumed the poster was taking wii u and switch. But he or she clarified.

I'm saying 07 because that was at ps3s launch and came out on 360 at the same time.

 

[thestopsign]

Really madden 07 didn't sell more than a million on 360 and ps3 at launch? I don't have the numbers but that's kinda nuts if it didn't.

Do you know how much the PS3 itself sold at launch? Because it wasn't much. I honestly think Zelda probably doubled the next highest launch game.

The PS3 launched to 196k in its first month, the Wii did 476k in its first month. So for a game to beat BotW first month sales it would have had to either sell at a 5:1 rate to the PS3 or a 2:1 rate on the Wii.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

I went and looked it up. Wow even madden 07 only sold 250k between both consoles. I had no idea it was that low.

And CoD only 333k.

 

[Primethius]

*snip*

I'll just snip this because I largely disagree from various perspectives but it's all rooted in one key disagreement. Namely the notion that territories won't care about Xbox because they just don't want the brand.

Of course those territories don't want the brand if MS isn't willing to put in the work long term. MS tried last gen and were more successful than they were this gen. This stuff doesn't happen quickly and certainly not if you bail out. Hence the short term vs. long term perspective. This gen they practically stopped caring about anything outside US/UK. What do they expect? People to care about the brand if they are in a tier 2/3 country?

And yea, I expect a larger percentage of XB1 owners to jump to Scorpio but not by much. It will sell considerably less than Pro, that much is clear.

 

[NolbertoS]

I miss Nintendo being king again for at leadt a month abd the fanboys going to war. It wasn'y much of a contest with MS vs Sony but now Nintendo vs Sony. Shitjustgotreal.gif . But seriously its great for the industry that Nintendo is back in the game and seems once again they introduced a new feature yhat people are warming up to (aka Switching)

 

[pastrami]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Zelda Switch the best selling launch title ever for NPD tracking?

I think the only titles that has a chance is Call of Duty: Ghosts on PS4/Xbox One. The split was something like 14% of the copies sold were Xbox One/PS4.

I can't find any numbers for Ghosts other than $1 billion sold-in on day 1, but we do know sales of COD: Ghosts were down from COD: Black Ops 2, which sold 7.5 million copies (November 2012 NPD). If Ghosts managed to sell ~6.5 million copies, that gives about 910k copies, which is close to Switch BOTW numbers. My money is on BOTW though. Just an insane attach rate.

 

[thestopsign]

I think the only titles that has a chance is Call of Duty: Ghosts on PS4/Xbox One. The split was something like 14% of the copies sold were Xbox One/PS4.

I can't find any numbers for Ghosts other than $1 billion sold-in on day 1, but we do know sales of COD: Ghosts were down from COD: Black Ops 2, which sold 7.5 million copies (November 2012 NPD). If Ghosts managed to sell ~6.5 million copies, that gives about 910k copies, which is close to Switch BOTW numbers. My money is on BOTW though. Just an insane attach rate.

No way in hell are 80-90% of initial console buyers are going to get COD. I'm kind of doubting any title has sold more than the 411k that Twilight Princess did. Maybe Super Mario 64? And COD Ghosts could be close to that 411k mark.

Also that would be 14% split between 2 consoles and if you are assuming 6.5 million then that would mean an even split would result in 455k sales from both.

 

[e-gamer]

I can't see why a ps4 pro on steroids(scorpio) would cost more than a ps4 one year later...

I'm​ still confident with 399 price tag.

 

[e-gamer]

I'll just snip this because I largely disagree from various perspectives but it's all rooted in one key disagreement. Namely the notion that territories won't care about Xbox because they just don't want the brand.

Of course those territories don't want the brand if MS isn't willing to put in the work long term. MS tried last gen and were more successful than they were this gen. This stuff doesn't happen quickly and certainly not if you bail out. Hence the short term vs. long term perspective. This gen they practically stopped caring about anything outside US/UK. What do they expect? People to care about the brand if they are in a tier 2/3 country?

And yea, I expect a larger percentage of XB1 owners to jump to Scorpio but not by much. It will sell considerably less than Pro, that much is clear.

How much pro is selling? Where can I find that information?

 

[pastrami]

No way in hell are 80-90% of initial console buyers are going to get COD. I'm kind of doubting any title has sold more than the 411k that Twilight Princess did. Maybe Super Mario 64? And COD Ghosts could be close to that 411k mark.

Also that would be 14% split between 2 consoles and if you are assuming 6.5 million then that would mean an even split would result in 455k sales from both.

Um, yeah, it would be combined 910k. I thought that was obvious. Otherwise, it's no contest, BOTW by a mile. How many consoles have even launched to 900k sales? I think it's basically just Switch, PS4, Xbox One?

Edit: Ah, I see, you are the one who brought up single SKU. The original question just asked about launch games though.

 

[Primethius]

How much pro is selling? Where can I find that information?

We only really got the holiday sales where it did about 500-600k in NPD which means about 1.5ish million world wide by the end of 2016. Don't think we got any more data.

 

[Skux]

Nice to see Horizon in good company. My game of the generation so far.

 

[thefro]

First 2-3 months? I would agree you can't get a full picture. You should have some encouraging or worrying signs across most regions by month 3 but to definitely be sure I agree with you. WiiU, the signs were appearing around 6 weeks but it took our first full 3 months of data to be sure it was going to be a no show in the US, about 6 weeks in Japan and varying periods in Europe.

With Switch thus far though, from what we can see in Japan it looks decent and it seems to be a marked improvement over the WiiU in many European regions (some signifcantly so, some better but still not great). By the time the next NPD comes out (mid may), we should have a pretty good handle on if the system is going to tail off or if it will at least remain relevant.

6 months in we will know if it's here to stay.

I'd say the early signs are very good for the Switch. It seems to be pulling its early adopters from the core Wii U/3DS/Vita audience plus some lapsed Nintendo fans early on, at least in the US. If you add some social gamers and kids to that later you'd have a nice chunk of the market and a viable ecosystem.

 

[Liabe Brave]

No way in hell are 80-90% of initial console buyers are going to get COD.

What are you referring to? The number he proposed for Ghosts is about 45% attach rate.

How many consoles have even launched to 900k sales? I think it's basically just Switch, PS4, Xbox One?

Gameboy Advance is pretty close at ~875k.

 

[slavesnyder]

Imagine a pyramid made up of three components.

Power
Games
Price

Agree. MS won't get overall sales up just by delivering a luxury version in a less attractive environment. It's baffling that a company that has it's roots in software development believes it can solve this problem through hardware.
microhard so to say.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

And maybe​ it's just me, but I see the success of Switch negatively affecting the second place console far more than I do the market leader.

Yeah, I think the real loser as the result of a successful Switch is Xbox. Sony and Nintendo now offer two very different and compelling products. The only reason to even consider a Scorpio is if you only care about third party games, you care about power (but not too much, otherwise you'd just buy a PC), and you are ok with paying a premium for it.

Sony offers all the third party options + fantastic first party, for less money. Nintendo offers a completely unique experience you cannot get anywhere else and it's resonating with consumers. I genuinely don't see what MS offers a potential buyer anymore, outside of power. That' alone is not a great proposition.

 

[blakep267]

Yeah, I think the real loser as the result of a successful Switch is Xbox. Sony and Nintendo now offer two very different and compelling products. The only reason to even consider a Scorpio is if you only care about third party games, you care about power (but not too much, otherwise you'd just buy a PC), and you are ok with paying a premium for it.

Sony offers all the third party options + fantastic first party, for less money. Nintendo offers a completely unique experience you cannot get anywhere else and it's resonating with consumers. I genuinely don't see what MS offers a potential buyer anymore, outside of power. That' alone is not a great proposition.

You do realize that Microsoft also publishes games. It's one thing to not be a fan and another to completely ignore their software output to prove a case. Invalidates your entire argument

 

[OrbitalBeard]

You do realize that Microsoft also publishes games. It's one thing to not be a fan and another to completely ignore their software output to prove a case. Invalidates your entire argument

Well, first off, I'm absolutely an Xbox fan.

My problem with MS first party at the moment is that it's not resonating with the general public all that much. Many of the IP tend to do decently on release, but fail to have legs or lasting appeal, outside of that core audience. Excluding Forza Horizon, all of their franchises have seen pretty large declines this generation. But we'll see what happens moving forward.

 

[blakep267]

Well, first off, I'm absolutely an Xbox fan.

My problem with MS first party at the moment is that it's not resonating with the general public all that much. Some of the IP tend to do decently on release, but fail to have legs. Outside of maybe Forza, all of their franchises have seen pretty large declines this generation. But we'll see what happens moving forward.

Not resonating with the general public? Fail to have legs? Where are you getting your numbers from. They have the best selling racing game this gen, halo 5 shipped 5 million copies in 3 months, and while Gears has seen a decline, its sales weren't bomba by any means. It was like ~450k in its launch month not counting digital

Things decline. That doesn't mean that they are failures. It's not the 360 anymore

 

[Boke1879]

You do realize that Microsoft also publishes games. It's one thing to not be a fan and another to completely ignore their software output to prove a case. Invalidates your entire argument

That's a fair point, but are Halo, Gears, Forza bringing in new users? Or is it keeping the existing userbase happy?

Everyone know MS publishes games. It's just they lack diversity right now and that doesn't look to change any time soon. Offering a more expensive box relative to the One S isn't going to bring in many new users. It's really there their enthusiast base.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Not resonating with the general public? Fail to have legs? Where are you getting your numbers from. They have the best selling racing game this gen, halo 5 shipped 5 million copies in 3 months, and while Gears has seen a decline, its sales weren't bomba by any means. It was like ~450k in its launch month not counting digital

Things decline. That doesn't mean that they are failures. It's not the 360 anymore

I'm aware. I mentioned this in the post you responded to.

I never claimed these IP were failures, so I'm not sure why you're putting words in my mouth.

If you can't see why Xbox may be in for some rough times ahead, especially when compared to their competition, we'll have to agree to disagree. Strictly regarding first party, I think the fact that not a single MS-published title is in this month's top 20 is kind of telling.

O think it's pretty false that they don't offer diversity. I wish that would stop floatinga round. Look at all the games they e published this gen and tell me there's no diversity

I think during the first two years or so, you absolutely have a point. It's now 2017.