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[MisterR]

What happened to those Monster Hunter legs? I was told it was a leggy title and would quickly sell through current shipment and another 100,000 more by March?

 

[Fukuzatsu]

Xenoverse 2 gives a positive indication they might. I could see both RE7 and Nier Auto doing well enough on Switch.

Again, I think it depends on the type of game. Even in the most ideal portable scenario I can imagine (you have a train commute with a guaranteed seat, for say, 1 hour per trip), I still don't think Nier would be a great experience in that space. Resident Evil perhaps even more so because you can't save anywhere you want.

As for what is a great portable game, Puyo Puyo Tetris--it was fantastic on Vita and is just as good on Switch. All you need to do is fire it up and you can be playing tetris or puyo puyo or any combination of both in the span of a few minutes, and stop when you have to get off at basically any time. Xenoverse is a game I haven't actually played, but is it safe to say it is more bite-sized than an RE game or Nier?

 

[Fukuzatsu]

What happened to those Monster Hunter legs? I was told it was a leggy title and would quickly sell through current shipment and another 100,000 more by March?

I think hitting 250,000 by the end of this fiscal year is itself pretty optimistic unless it just randomly gets a big boost somewhere.

 

[Herb Alpert]

Again, I think it depends on the type of game. Even in the most ideal portable scenario I can imagine (you have a train commute with a guaranteed seat, for say, 1 hour per trip), I still don't think Nier would be a great experience in that space. Resident Evil perhaps even more so because you can't save anywhere you want.

As for what is a great portable game, Puyo Puyo Tetris--it was fantastic on Vita and is just as good on Switch. All you need to do is fire it up and you can be playing tetris or puyo puyo or any combination of both in the span of a few minutes, and stop when you have to get off at basically any time. Xenoverse is a game I haven't actually played, but is it safe to say it is more bite-sized than an RE game or Nier?

The thing is, you're not forced to play in portable mode. It is not just an handheld.

 

[Fularu]

What happened to those Monster Hunter legs? I was told it was a leggy title and would quickly sell through current shipment and another 100,000 more by March?

It's about (or has) to sell through the initial shipment (wasn't it between 140 and 150k?)

 

[MisterR]

I think hitting 250,000 by the end of this fiscal year is itself pretty optimistic unless it just randomly gets a big boost somewhere.

I do as well, but several in the thread about the Monster Hunter Ships 300k thread felt it would easily sell 300k by March. I don't know if selling 12k this week really reflects that.

 

[Chris1964]

What happened to those Monster Hunter legs? I was told it was a leggy title and would quickly sell through current shipment and another 100,000 more by March?

Retailers expect good legs for MHXX but maybe you know better.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

The thing is, you're not forced to play in portable mode. It is not just an handheld.

Right, but the original comment is about a consumer who would (presumably) be buying it for the added portability, since the game is almost guaranteed to perform better on PS4.That's why I'm talking about the portable use-case.

 

[Herb Alpert]

Right, but the original comment is about a consumer who would (presumably) be buying it for the added portability, since the game is almost guaranteed to perform better on PS4.That's why I'm talking about the portable use-case.

Ho that makes sense then, you're right

 

[MisterR]

Retailers expect good legs for MHXX but maybe you know better.

Maybe so? It's current sales trajectory certainly doesn't seem to reflect that.

 

[Deku89]

Thanks for the feedback! I have in fact been looking at working more with the change per week instead of the absolute attach rate as some lines hardly show change. I will think a bit about maybe ejecting some data (for example 1-2-Switch, as it didn't chart on regular basis anyway) or breaking it up into two or more graphs, about using clearer (bar) graph types to present it, and how to transition to, or add to the mix, changes per week.

You should definitely do a pie chart .

Mine is kind of similar but different enough, I guess. Seems to be a lot more charts/graphs now.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Again, I think it depends on the type of game. Even in the most ideal portable scenario I can imagine (you have a train commute with a guaranteed seat, for say, 1 hour per trip), I still don't think Nier would be a great experience in that space. Resident Evil perhaps even more so because you can't save anywhere you want.

As for what is a great portable game, Puyo Puyo Tetris--it was fantastic on Vita and is just as good on Switch. All you need to do is fire it up and you can be playing tetris or puyo puyo or any combination of both in the span of a few minutes, and stop when you have to get off at basically any time. Xenoverse is a game I haven't actually played, but is it safe to say it is more bite-sized than an RE game or Nier?

This is about the Switch not the 3DS though.
Switch support all types of games - as long as devs can get them running on the system the audience will be there.

 

[Laplasakos]

The Switch version of AN2 has the best attach rate of all 3 versions. What does it say about the PS4 and Vita???

(Anyone can spin but lately you're taking it to a whole new level)

What is the game you are referring to by AN2?

Also, what do you mean with spins and new level? Are you sure you are not confusing me with someone else?

 

[Fukuzatsu]

What is the game you are referring to by AN2?

Also, what do you mean with spins and new level? Are you sure you are not confusing me with someone else?

Nights of Azure 2, I'm guessing. And, regardless of it having the best attach rate, it isn't like it sold gangbusters (or even especially well) on any system.

 

[WhatWeLeftBehind]

Maybe so? It's current sales trajectory certainly doesn't seem to reflect that.

Nothing about it's current sales suggest it won't hit that. It'll probably get a small holiday boost which will allow it to reach 300k by march.

 

[silpheed-mcd]

Famitsu:

https://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/

 

[boiled goose]

What is the game you are referring to by AN2?

Also, what do you mean with spins and new level? Are you sure you are not confusing me with someone else?

The point the poster is making is that "automatic success for any title" is an absurd standard to compare Switch (or any other platform) to.

Maybe so? It's current sales trajectory certainly doesn't seem to reflect that.

So your prediction is that weekly sales will keep dropping by the same percentage, no holiday boost, and therefore below 200k ltd by March?

That's your "know better" prediction?

 

[Fukuzatsu]

Nothing about it's current sales suggest it won't hit that. It'll probably get a small holiday boost which will allow it to reach 300k by march.

There are 28/29 weeks until the end of March, and in order for it to sell 300,000 by then it would have to sell an average of 6,000 or so per week. Now, in two weeks, the drop-offs have been pretty hard (-68% on second week, -53% this week). If it falls another ~50% next week, it has to then either stay at that level (not impossible) or increase (unlikely outside of aforementioned small holiday boost).

Will it definitely sell under 300k? Who knows, but it doesn't look fantastic.

 

[Chris1964]

Maybe so? It's current sales trajectory certainly doesn't seem to reflect that.

Capcom's shipment for Japan was 200k and the retail shipment was estimated 170k. What current sales trajectory reflects is that it will need additional shipments soon. Some online sites are already out of stock.

 

[Fiendcode]

Again, I think it depends on the type of game. Even in the most ideal portable scenario I can imagine (you have a train commute with a guaranteed seat, for say, 1 hour per trip), I still don't think Nier would be a great experience in that space. Resident Evil perhaps even more so because you can't save anywhere you want.

As for what is a great portable game, Puyo Puyo Tetris--it was fantastic on Vita and is just as good on Switch. All you need to do is fire it up and you can be playing tetris or puyo puyo or any combination of both in the span of a few minutes, and stop when you have to get off at basically any time. Xenoverse is a game I haven't actually played, but is it safe to say it is more bite-sized than an RE game or Nier?

That's a pretty limited use case for Switch though. I can't imagine Zelda being a great experience on a packed Tokyo train either and look how that sold.

 

[Fularu]

What is the game you are referring to by AN2?

Also, what do you mean with spins and new level? Are you sure you are not confusing me with someone else?

I'm not confusing you. You're making sure every week to remind us how a select few titles carefully chosen to illustrate your non existing point aren't selling on the system.

Nights of Azure bombed everywhere because the first game was a steaming pile of shit. Not because the Switcj was a bad fit for the title or because third party games can't succeed on it.

 

[Ōkami]

Famitsu retail + digital, best selling PS4 games

01. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 1.413.762
02. Final Fantasy XV - 1.087.398
03. Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition - 558.257
04. Grand Theft Auto V - 530.698
05. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 503.748
06. Dark Souls III - 468.668
07. NieR: Automata - 412.074
08. Persona 5 - 411.857
09. Call of Duty: Black Ops III - 411.856
10. Knack - 401.579

Selling an additional 60k is not far fetched for Nier, Resident Evil 7 should actually be here after the Gold Edition comes out, but that just shows how badly the original releases did.

Minecraft has sold over 470k units for the year so far, for it to sell over 700k is very reachable, last year it sold about a million, so its keeping consistent, and next year it should keep going well too.

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

Splatoon 2 at 1.1m in a 1.6m sold console.

This thing is the next Animal Crossing. 2.5m is a given for this year.

 

[schuelma]

There are 28/29 weeks until the end of March, and in order for it to sell 300,000 by then it would have to sell an average of 6,000 or so per week. Now, in two weeks, the drop-offs have been pretty hard (-68% on second week, -53% this week). If it falls another ~50% next week, it has to then either stay at that level (not impossible) or increase (unlikely outside of aforementioned small holiday boost).

Will it definitely sell under 300k? Who knows, but it doesn't look fantastic.

Its doing fine for what it is. I don't know what the big discussion is about.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

There are 28/29 weeks until the end of March, and in order for it to sell 300,000 by then it would have to sell an average of 6,000 or so per week. Now, in two weeks, the drop-offs have been pretty hard (-68% on second week, -53% this week). If it falls another ~50% next week, it has to then either stay at that level (not impossible) or increase (unlikely outside of aforementioned small holiday boost).

Will it definitely sell under 300k? Who knows, but it doesn't look fantastic.

Capcom's ability to channel stuff should not be underestimated. But really, by the end of the holidays we'll have a better idea. The drops don't strike me as anything crazy to be concerned about.

Also if XX and Nights of Azure 2 are actually examples of the Switch not being viable in the Japanese market . . . well. Let's just not do that.

 

[Fularu]

Its doing fine for what it is. I don't know what the big discussion is about.

Third party games don't sell on switch

As a variation of Capcom is stupid with Monster Hunter for a change

 

[schuelma]

The drops don't strike me as anything crazy to be concerned about.

The drops are fine, relatively speaking. Again, not sure what the big discussion is about.

 

[Chris1964]

Its doing fine for what it is. I don't know what the big discussion is about.

For what it is it's doing better than what it deserves.

 

[fortunato]

What happened to those Monster Hunter legs? I was told it was a leggy title and would quickly sell through current shipment and another 100,000 more by March?

You cannot really ask about a game legs after 3 weeks in the market. The game might stabilize around 5-10k units for months, and those would be extremely good legs.

 

[BanjoLayleeYookaKazooie]

For what it is it's doing better than what it deserves.

Well that I can agree with. Didn't even bother with the localisation bah.

Though I guess we need teacher Capcom to say for certain whether or not the test was passed.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

The drops are fine, relatively speaking. Again, not sure what the big discussion is about.

I don't want to really want to do my normal snarky routine so lets just say Capcom put out a shit product with a shit marketing campaign and segments of us disagree on what is and isn't reasonable.

For what it is it's doing better than what it deserves.

After 3 weeks we can't really gauge the legs. I think the opening was low but the drops look fine to me.

 

[Laplasakos]

I'm not confusing you. You're making sure every week to remind us how a select few titles carefully chosen to illustrate your non existing point aren't selling on the system.

Nights of Azure bombed everywhere because the first game was a steaming pile of shit. Not because the Switcj was a bad fit for the title or because third party games can't succeed on it.

What i am doing every week is sharing my opinion with others and discussing about the japanese market, not the fairy tales of spins that you are accusing me of. I could select more titles that in my opinion underperformed like DQH 1+2 but i chose the most recent ones. If you disagree with me, then you should answer with valid points or examples. I am tired with the angry posts from the usual suspects, every time someone dares to not say something positive about Switch.

 

[schuelma]

I could select more title that in my opinion underperformed like DQH 1+2. If you disagree with me, then you should answer with valid points or examples. I am tired with the angry posts from the usual suspects, every time someone dares to not say something positive about Switch.

I'm curious how much you were expecting for DQ Heroes.

 

[LordKano]

For what it is it's doing better than what it deserves.

Sadly.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

What i am doing every week is sharing my opinion with others and discussing about the japanese market, not the fairy tales of spins that you are accusing me of. I could select more title that in my opinion underperformed like DQH 1+2. If you disagree with me, then you should answer with valid points or examples. I am tired with the angry posts from the usual suspects, every time someone dares to not say something positive about Switch.

If anything DQH1+2 is a better example, because it was early to the party (in Japan) and the two sold quite well on PS4, as far as PS4 games go. The only real downside was the performance (and a big downside it was), but I have to wonder how much of the Japanese market for Switch had their eyes glued to things like Digital Foundry or reviews for performance issues. That is to say, if you want to argue the reason for its poor sales is solely or primarily the performance, then I think that's kinda weak.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

I'm curious how much you were expecting for DQ Heroes.

Is "half of the worse-selling of the original pair" too much to ask? DQH2 sold over 300,000 on PS4 and yet DQH1+2 is barely at 60,000 on Switch.

 

[Aleh]

Animal Crossing still selling and Splatoon 2 doing this well are a sight to behold.

 

[schuelma]

Is "half of the worse-selling of the original pair" too much to ask? DQH2 sold over 200,000 on PS4 and yet DQH1+2 is barely at 60,000.

I dunno. Its a really expensive collection of old games without any sort of improvements or extra content (I think?).

Maybe it could have done a bit better, but its kept selling consistently and hasn't hit the bomba bins.

 

[fortunato]

Is "half of the worse-selling of the original pair" too much to ask? DQH2 sold over 300,000 on PS4 and yet DQH1+2 is barely at 60,000 on Switch.

In my opinion, DQH I+II sold reasonably well for what it was: a late porting of a declining sub-series with some performance issues.

 

[LordKano]

Is "half of the worse-selling of the original pair" too much to ask? DQH2 sold over 300,000 on PS4 and yet DQH1+2 is barely at 60,000 on Switch.

DQH1+2 is also an awful port sold at an incredibly high price. I don't know how to interpret its sales but these two factors need to be taken in consideration.

 

[schuelma]

Is "half of the worse-selling of the original pair" too much to ask? DQH2 sold over 200,000 on PS4 and yet DQH1+2 is barely at 60,000.

I dunno. Its a really expensive collection of old games without any sort of improvements or extra content (I think?).

Maybe it could have done a bit better, but its kept selling consistently and hasn't hit the bomba bins.

Edit- I'd add that SE couldn't have been too disappointed given the Builders 2 announcement.

 

[noshten]

Famitsu:

https://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/

Splatoon 2 has passed 70% attach rate on the Switch in Japan on Famitsu, 67% on M-C.

 

[Laplasakos]

I'm curious how much you were expecting for DQ Heroes.

I talked about it in detail with Mpl90 in a previous thread. With the numbers the Switch is pulling the result is kinda disappointing. If you told me, before Switch launch, that it would sell 50k+, then i would say it's a great result. But now, i think it should do 80k - 100k. I mean Switch is selling like crazy, it's the only DQ game available for the system, it has exclusive content and both games were good received in Japan, why it shouldn't sell something like 80k?

Is "half of the worse-selling of the original pair" too much to ask? DQH2 sold over 300,000 on PS4 and yet DQH1+2 is barely at 60,000.

Why are you leaving out the PS3 and Vita versions?

 

[Hero of Legend]

I dunno. Its a really expensive collection of old games without any sort of improvements or extra content (I think?).

Maybe it could have done a bit better, but its kept selling consistently and hasn't hit the bomba bins.

Edit- I'd add that SE couldn't have been too disappointed given the Builders 2 announcement.

Pretty sure there was a bit of new content, forgot what though.

I'm still holding for that long listed localization by Nintendo, hopefully coming with fixes. Split them up if you need to!

 

[schuelma]

I talked about it in detail with Mpl90 in a previous thread. With the numbers the Switch is pulling the result is kinda disappointing. If you told me, before Switch launch, that it would sell 50k+, then i would say it's a great result. But now, i think it should do 80k - 100k. I mean Switch is selling like crazy, it's the only DQ game available for the system, it has exclusive content and both games were good received in Japan, why it shouldn't sell something like 80k?

I feel like you're quibbling a bit if your expectations are that reasonable- its at 58K and still selling. It could easily get to 75-80K LTD.

 

[Oregano]

DQ Heroes had an exclusive character and boss fight on Switch.

 

[cw_sasuke]

We are really discussing DQH1+2 performance 6 months later ? Yup, slow week confirmed....well until the Direct and whatever implications the announcements will have on MC.

 

[fortunato]

I talked about it in detail with Mpl90 in a previous thread. With the numbers the Switch is pulling the result is kinda disappointing. If you told me, before Switch launch, that it would sell 50k+, then i would say it's a great result. But now, i think it should do 80k - 100k. I mean Switch is selling like crazy, it's the only DQ game available for the system, it has exclusive content and both games were good received in Japan, why it shouldn't sell something like 80k?

With or without digital sales? As LTD or YTD?

 

[Ōkami]

DQ Heroes had an exclusive character and boss fight on Switch.

Ragnar McRyan and Malroth might be awesome, but not 9000 yen awesome.

You could buy a PS4 and both games new for less than Switch and the collection, 60k is good for what it was.

 

[Jawbreaker]

For what it is it's doing better than what it deserves.

Is the port not competent? Aside from being 30 FPS, it seems to be pretty solid.