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[Luminaire]

Bit too optimistic, but I expect sales to spike once they kill off the god damn 3DS and focus all their studios on the Switch.

 

[Neoxon]

I'm as hopeful about the Switch's future as the next guy, but 130 million units sold in 5 years is a bit too optimistic.

 

[Fushin]

I mean if Nintendo doesn't release a new handheld then the Switch just becomes handheld + console sales combined. 130 mil isn't that far of a stretch.

 

[rekameohs]

If Switch sales ever pass Wii, there will be some serious, serious crow to be had. Including by me.

 

[reelbigtink]

Probably a bit too high but I'd be thrilled if it hit that number. Once Mario hits, then Animal Crossing, then Pokemon, then a price drop, I can see this thing hitting 100 mil.

 

[RandomExpletive]

I love my switch but 130M by 2022 insane. 70M I could see, maybe even 100M if they can figure out how to avoid Apple stealing all their RAM

But 130M? Bruh... fingers crossed

 

[timshundo]

with price drops and new, upgraded models, i can see it happening.

 

[aadiboy]

At the risk of getting quoted in a wall of shame post 5 years from now, I'm pretty sure the Switch won't get anywhere near that number. The 3DS needed a million different skus and 6 years to sell 70 million units. No way Switch is getting double that in 5 years.

 

[hanspampel]

*that's not as recognized as the other big banks in most of their departments, so take it with a grain of salt. At the same time they're looking to break into Asia wealth management so maybe their coverage has improved.

Just wanted to point out, that all big banks give ratings on various stocks. That does not make them market research firm, tho. And also neither rating agencies.

One could also make the destinction between a regular back and investment bank only...

 

[phanphare]

Bit too optimistic, but I expect sales to spike once they kill off the god damn 3DS and focus all their studios on the Switch.

they already are focusing all of their studios on the Switch so you can go ahead and check that box

the 3DS lives on because it's amassed a huge library of games and the hardware is selling for anywhere between $70-$200 not to mention the massive install base

 

[Usobuko]

150% of ( 3DS + Wii U LTD sales ).

Seems legit.

 

[Jonneh3003]

I'm expecting Wonderful 101 sales.

 

[VariantX]

If Switch sales ever pass Wii, there will be some serious, serious crow to be had. Including by me.

How the fuck do you even follow that up if they did?? I swear all I can think to do is keep releasing upgraded versions of the switch every 3-4 years with full BC until that tech hits its limit which forces you to a different architecture

 

[Liabe Brave]

This is extremely bullish. Assume Switch will sell 15m by the end of 2017; this is much more than Nintendo is projecting, but let's say so. That leaves 115m in the next four years, or an average of almost 29m per year.

That average is better than the best year Wii ever had. Only two years of DS surpassed 29m, and its best four-year period didn't average this much. And if Switch hits that number on time, even a Wii-like crash afterwards wouldn't stop them from selling millions and millions more units

So in other words, Credit Suisse is predicting Switch will be the fastest-selling and best-selling video game console of all time. This isn't impossible, but it definitely doesn't match their reasoning that "it sells like a handheld console". They don't seem to understand the import of their own prediction, which makes it less likely to be well-founded in data.

 

[Memento]

I mean if Nintendo doesn't release a new handheld then the Switch just becomes handheld + console sales combined. 130 mil isn't that far of a stretch.

Yes it is

Do you really think the handheld and console public are entirely different demographics? Come on

 

[jayu26]

I mean if Nintendo doesn't release a new handheld then the Switch just becomes handheld + console sales combined. 130 mil isn't that far of a stretch.

That's not how math works. A person buys home console to play those games and buys handheld to play those games. That is two units of hardware sold to same person. That would not happen with Switch.

 

[Graphics Horse]

I'm sure Nintendo Switch will become a family of systems.

The current Switch as it is, but eventually lower price.

Switch Go (smaller 5 inch screen, joycons built in)

Switch Pro (more powerful unit, fully BC like New 3DS, DSi, GameBoy Color, etc)

I'm thinking 80m to a max of 110m lifetime sales. Betting on the lower end of that.

Switch home 4k media hub.

I don't think it's impossible that they sell that many in that way, and they were selling vastly more units than that last decade if you combine DS and Wii sales together, I wouldn't want to bank on it though.

 

[Hattori]

I can see it happen

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Oh is that all?

 

[TAS]

If it outsells PS4 then prepare for extreme salt just like the Wii days.

It would actually be much worse considering the PS4 had like a 3+ year head start whereas PS3 and Wii launched 1 week apart. NeoGAF would turn into a Peruvian salt mine.

 

[King_Moc]

Seems a touch optimistic, I must say.

Great for a console. But no where near top selling iOS and android devices.

Err...why would it be? A mobile phone is pretty much a necessity these days. A dedicated video game console will never be that.

 

[DeuceGamer]

I've thought it would be successful since day one, but that's way too optimistic for me. That's an extremely high number of units to sell each year and continue to do so for every year. I still think it will be successful but 130 million in 5 years is bonkers.

 

[sinonobu]

That's a bit too high...

I can see it reaching beyond 3ds numbers tho

 

[KingdomHeartsFan]

That's not gonna happen lol.

 

[chaosblade]

The original 70m number seems way more plausible to me.

But what do I know? I expected the thing to crash and burn like the Wii U due to the unclear messaging and price tag. Bring on 130m I guess.

 

[Skittzo0413]

This is extremely bullish. Assume Switch will sell 15m by the end of 2017; this is much more than Nintendo is projecting, but let's say so. That leaves 115m in the next four years, or an average of almost 29m per year.

That average is better than the best year Wii ever had. Only two years of DS surpassed 29m, and its best four-year period didn't average this much. And if Switch hits that number on time, even a Wii-like crash afterwards wouldn't stop them from selling millions and millions more units

So in other words, Credit Suisse is predicting Switch will be the fastest-selling and best-selling video game console of all time. This isn't impossible, but it definitely doesn't match their reasoning that "it sells like a handheld console". They don't seem to understand the import of their own prediction, which makes it less likely to be well-founded in data.

Agreed, I'm not sure this logic holds up all that well. He's expecting the peak year to be 31m sales but then I'm not quite sure how the rest of the numbers add up to 130m. I guess it depends on the timeline- through 2022 would be 6 years and I suppose with a revision or two revitalizing sales it could get there.

I think it could get there eventually, depending entirely on Nintendo's own long term strategy with the product, but reaching this number by 2022 seems basically impossible. They need to reevaluate their expectations a bit.

At the very least this is interesting insomuch as it shows a drastic change in perception of Nintendo and their future viability, at least with this bank.

 

[Neff]

Not unrealistic if the software is there. It's a damn sexy thing.

 

[Indelible]

If Nintendo keeps up this momentum, I could see this happening. They are going to dominate this holiday season.

 

[Jonneh3003]

The original 70m number seems way more plausible to me.

But what do I know? I expected the thing to crash and burn like the Wii U due to the unclear messaging and price tag. Bring on 130m I guess.

What did you find unclear?

 

[SatoAilDarko]

100 Million lifetime is the optimist in me. Realistically I see 60-80 million.

 

[phanphare]

Not unrealistic if the software is there. It's a damn sexy thing.

ahhhh believe in miracles
since ya came along

The original 70m number seems way more plausible to me.

But what do I know? I expected the thing to crash and burn like the Wii U due to the unclear messaging and price tag. Bring on 130m I guess.

why would the unclear messaging and price tag of the Wii U affect the Switch?

 

[Lylo]

Too optimistic, i believe it'll sell 129m, maximum.

Now, serious, this will be an interesting thread to revisit in 2022...someone will have the final laughter.

 

[ThisIsMyDogKyle]

DEAD. ON. ARRIVAL.

In all seriousness this seems way over the top, at the absolute max I could see 20M a year and 15M or so in 2017 which would be 95M by 2022 but I don't think it'll be that high even, maybe 65M to 70M.

 

[Prodigenius10]

The software would have to be KILLER and they'd have to get the price down.

To be fair, Nintendo has always delivered on the handheld front (I know they consider switch a console but let's be real). Also having Nintendo concentrate on one device should lead to some godly results software wise.

 

[True Fire]

They would need to release a lot of SKUs to hit that number. Namely a $199 Switch Mini. Every kid on the playground needs to have one.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Pffft. Alright guys. First you say they only sell 6
Million the first year now we're going that far for five years? Good job.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

It is not impossible but i don't see that happening.
Was thinking more like 70 to 90 million .

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

The Switch is and will continue to be a huge success, but 130m? Yeah, no. The only way it even has a prayer of getting that far is if they start pumping out even more variants than the 3DS, and even then it would seem pretty unlikely. I'm legitimately not sure how you could divine that number. The far cheaper 3DS will top out a bit over half of that when it's all said and done, so I don't expect "it's a handheld" to suddenly push it near OG DS territory.

 

[ArtHands]

In 3 years when ps5 and xbox two is out and every multiplatform games on switch looks like last last gen port running at 15fps? Nah.

They can always release a Nintendo Switch Pro by then.

 

[massoluk]

Last time I saw something like this and said nahh, the Wii ended up happen. So....

 

[Blobbers]

Nintendo does from time to time make consoles that sell a shitload in a relatively short period of time (i.e. not 10 years), but if this prediction came true it would literally make the Switch the 3rd best-selling console in the history of humane kind. That's a bold prediction half a year into a system's life

 

[chrisPjelly]

Probably talking about the Switch family. ie. Switch, Switch portable, Switch plus, etc.

 

[Cert.in.Death]

Whew, that's quite the prediction. As in, "internet forums"-esque.

Temper yourself Switzerland.

 

[Neiteio]

Kimishima right now

 

[NewGame]

That's a big number.

If they come out with a cheaper Switch with a re-release of every Touch! Generation games developed for the more modern era then it might crack 100+ mil.

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

Last time I saw something like this and said nahh, the Wii ended up happen. So....

The Wii came in at 100 million though. 30 million is a massive leap.

 

[franklyshankly]

I'd feel very safe betting the under on that myself.

 

[The Last One]

I really don't think the Switch is close to being as popular as the Wii. But who knows, maybe the sales will skyrocket next year or so.

 

[phanphare]

The Wii came in at 100 million though. 30 million is a massive leap.

the Wii never had a mainline pokemon game nor was it a hybrid device meant to appeal to both japanese and western markets

 

[Expansion Pack]

I predicted 200M LTD last month. Increasingly looking like I'll be right. Naysayers be damned. lol