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Catalan Independence Referendum(1-O) - The aftermath

Jackpot

Banned
And obviously the legality of the referendum is going to impact the turnout, particularly among people that believe Catalonia should remain a part of Spain

If they believed that they should have voted for it.

At this point I just have to assume you're being wilfully obtuse and don't actually want to engage in debate.
 

Theonik

Member
So, if one state of your country wants to secede by a minority of the people and the whole thing is illegal and unconstitutional. Your government says, voting for it would be illegal and criminal and you would be apprehended.

Would you go to the voting booth in that case to vote no?
Maybe the state should consider not making voting illegal in that instance because all they are doing is aggravating in the situation.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
An I right in thinking that if they actually went full retard and sent the military to Catalonia, Spain would (theorically) automatically be out of the EU because of sending the military against our citizens?

They will send Guardia Civil not the army.

Plus EU is not the same with the European Court of Human Rights. To trigger the specific article that could suspend Spain from EU it would require that very tragic events to happen in Spain. Even then, the action would be first again responsible people and the country itself (see all the Serbian guys condemned for example).
 

Jackpot

Banned
Maybe the state should consider not making voting illegal in that instance because all they are doing is aggravating in the situation.

It's a simple yes/no answer he asked to help acknowledge the concept that the referendum's result is flawed. Whether the state should have allowed it to go ahead doesn't enter into it.
 

Haly

One day I realized that sadness is just another word for not enough coffee.
What does Catalonia’s military capabilities consist of, or would they be at the mercy of Madrid in the event of civil war?
 

Walshicus

Member
At this point I just have to assume you're being wilfully obtuse and don't actually want to engage in debate.
Not at all. The government of their nation organised a vote to gauge their opinion on the subject. They should have voted if they wanted their opinions known.

This wasn't something done under the radar, they had ample opportunity to learn about it. They chose silence.
 
IMO, Portugal's President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa would be the best mediator to bring both Madrid and Barcelona to the negotiation table, plus he is a big history buff
 

trembli0s

Member
What does Catalonia’s military capabilities consist of, or would they be at the mercy of Madrid in the event of civil war?

Essentially at the mercy of the central government barring any defections from Catalan units of which I'm not sure how many there are.

I also love to see the dropping of Funky Bombas in here.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
2) hold a legal referendum, with a proper debate, and with proper EU backing (ie, the options are to stay in Spain, or join the EU as a new country).

No chance in hell.

The European Union will not accept states that break away from its own members, nor should it. There are too many strong nationalist movements in Europe that are getting stronger. Not only that, but EU membership is not automatic and continuous for a new state, so no. Any member can veto, and again, membership is not automatic.

Also, it's likely that the Catalan nationalists have the support of less than 50 percent of the population, so I don't see them being able to UDI, because they only have a majority of support in rural areas.
 
IMO, Portugal's President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa would be the best mediator to bring both Madrid and Barcelona to the negotiation table, plus he is a big history buff

Unless I misremember, I'm pretty sure that the goverment already said they wouldn't accept any offer to mediate.
 

Stop It

Perfectly able to grasp the inherent value of the fishing game.
Not at all. The government of their nation organised a vote to gauge their opinion on the subject. They should have voted if they wanted their opinions known.

This wasn't something done under the radar, they had ample opportunity to learn about it. They chose silence.
Voted in a referendum you see as unlawful?

Are you nuts? That's the last thing you do. It's legitimising the vote.

The solution is for both sides to compromise on an actual pathway for a properly administered vote on independence with equal billing for both sides.

It requires Rajoy to stop persecution of his political enemies and the seperatists to stop trying to control the narrative in Catalonia while preventing unionists from being heard.
 

correojon

Member
Not at all. The government of their nation organised a vote to gauge their opinion on the subject. They should have voted if they wanted their opinions known.

This wasn't something done under the radar, they had ample opportunity to learn about it. They chose silence.

Stop it, at this point you´re only embarrassing yourself.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Not at all. The government of their nation organised a vote to gauge their opinion on the subject. They should have voted if they wanted their opinions known.

This wasn't something done under the radar, they had ample opportunity to learn about it. They chose silence.

You cannot be serious...but assuming you are...

No, their nation is Spain, hence why they ignored the illegal, shady, internationally unobserved referendum, counted by a corrupt regional government who pulled a voters list out of thin air. The nationalists counted the votes themselves, on a referendum most Catalans either didn't recognise or were prevented from voting in. You cannot trust the nationalists to count the votes themselves, or that there wasn't multiple voting at different polling stations.
 

correojon

Member
So there won't be any peaceful conclusion then

Both sides (Rajoy and Puigdemont) think they are getting a huge amount of votes for this charade and both of them are so stupid that they are going to keep on going down this path. The only thing that can stop them is a shift in popular opinion in one of the 2 sides (PP and independence supporters) that makes their respective idiotic leaders think that they may actually be losing votes, but it may be too late when something like that happens.
 
Both sides (Rajoy and Puigdemont) think they are getting a huge amount of votes for this charade and both of them are so stupid that they are going to keep on going down this path. The only thing that can stop them is a shift in popular opinion in one of the 2 sides (PP and independence supporters) that makes their respective idiotic leaders think that they may actually be losing votes, but it may be too late when something like that happens.
Agreed,, both being stubborn doesn't do any sides any favors.


Plus King Felipe was totally useless
 

TimmmV

Member
If they believed that they should have voted for it.

Their abstention is as good as a no vote when a referendum has no legal grounds to take place

Cause, not effect.

No, the ethnic cleansing came after different parts of ex-Yugoslavia declared independence and the country broke up.

Either way, that's beside the point - ethnic cleansing was a consequence of Yugoslavia breaking up, its insane that you are being so blasé about that happening

Edit: oops sorry, didn't notice the first point had already been made by other posters
 
Maybe the state should consider not making voting illegal in that instance because all they are doing is aggravating in the situation.
The state doesn't "make" things illegal. There is a legal framework that protects the rights of citizens, and a regional government cannot just proclaim they are the absolute vouce of their people and they are no longer allegiant to their parent state, and misuse critical data like an electoral census.
The position of the central government is awful, but a regional government cannot just ignore all the laws and expect a recognition of legitimacy.
 

Theonik

Member
It's a simple yes/no answer he asked to help acknowledge the concept that the referendum's result is flawed. Whether the state should have allowed it to go ahead doesn't enter into it.
My point is it doesn't matter. The moment the Catalan government chooses to do this they are effectively proclaiming independence from the laws of Spain. There is nothing binding you to the concept of legality when seceding. The majority of independent states did so in this way.

The state doesn't "make" things illegal. There is a legal framework that protects the rights of citizens, and a regional government cannot just proclaim they are the absolute vouce of their people and they are no longer allegiant to their parent state, and misuse critical data like an electoral census.
The position of the central government is awful, but a regional government cannot just ignore all the laws and expect a recognition of legitimacy.
Auctoritas non Veritas Facit Legem.
 

Hari Seldon

Member
The state doesn't "make" things illegal. There is a legal framework that protects the rights of citizens, and a regional government cannot just proclaim they are the absolute vouce of their people and they are no longer allegiant to their parent state, and misuse critical data like an electoral census.
The position of the central government is awful, but a regional government cannot just ignore all the laws and expect a recognition of legitimacy.

So in Spain you don't have local elections and local referendums? The feds in the US have no say into what goes into local referendums, they can only fight it after the fact if it violates federal law. That is what Spain should do. Allow the local vote and only contest it after the fact.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Edit: We're just regurgitating the same talking points. I hope the situation there doesn't deteriorate though.
 

Walshicus

Member
Why are you commenting on stuff you clearly have no idea about?

The breakup of Yugoslavia was messy because the state itself was a hodgepodge amalgam with little alignment to the nations within. National tensions weren't created from nothing by the split, they were the cause of it.

States being realigned and created to fit the nations within should be routine in the EU. Egos and control freakery - on the part of the Spanish regime in this instance - is the problem here, not national identity.

The UK is far from perfect, and I'd vote to leave it in a heartbeat, but at least it has the balls to defend its existence via the ballot box rather than via a paramilitary thug's baton.
 
So in Spain you don't have local elections and local referendums? The feds in the US have no say into what goes into local referendums, they can only fight it after the fact if it violates federal law. That is what Spain should do. Allow the local vote and only contest it after the fact.
There are local elections and local referendums.
Imagine now the Governor of a State announces a referendum to be celebrated in 3 months to unilaterally declare independence. Would that be legal?
They love valencia, cuz their dream is to replace catalonia economical power with valencia. So they can finally repress our culture without fear.
They love it in words only, PP keeps fucking it fiscally and lack of investment. (Mediterranean Corridor, anyone) Which speaks to our need for fiscal reform.
 

Alebrije

Member
Why does the central goverment just now allows the referendum since even people from Cataluña are split and it seems more than 50% do not want to go independent. ?? Unless I am misssing somehting.
 

Walshicus

Member
There are local elections and local referendums.
Imagine now the Governor of a State announces a referendum to be celebrated in 3 months to unilaterally declare independence. Would that be legal?

Assuming there was a evidence that such a vote was demanded by the state's population (regardless of which way they intended to vote), it would be the moral duty of that governor to facilitate it. Legality should not factor into the process, so long as there is no viable legal path to fulfill the democratic mandate provided. Any legal system which would prevent such a path is inherently immoral.

Of course, where a political process exists, it is imperative to follow it.

Or in short; don't follow bad laws.
 

Acidote

Member
Why does the central goverment just now allows the referendum since even people from Cataluña are split and it seems more than 50% do not want to go independent. ?? Unless I am misssing somehting.

First and foremost because they don't want to. And because they are corrupt. And assholes. And idiotic. Man I hate our current government.

And second but most important because it's not legal for them to allow it either. There should be a lot of work done first modifying certain laws and the constitution. That's the part where I believe the Catalonian government really is in the wrong. They're even bending their own laws to keep going forward.
 

Theonik

Member
If Catalonia's total state liabilities are only 70bn Euro they are absolutely fine. Catalonia has a nominal GDP of $255.204bn which puts their debt per GDP at under 50% which is considerably lower than that of Spain which has a debt to GDP of almost 100%. An independent Catalan republic could be far more sustainable financially than Spain is.

But all of that is largely theoretical anyway the question is how much money Catalonia would need for independence, the size of the micro and macroeconomic impact of the split, whether they default on their share of the Spanish debt etc etc.
 

Metal B

Member
Assuming there was a evidence that such a vote was demanded by the state's population (regardless of which way they intended to vote), it would be the moral duty of that governor to facilitate it. Legality should not factor into the process, so long as there is no viable legal path to fulfill the democratic mandate provided. Any legal system which would prevent such a path is inherently immoral.

Of course, where a political process exists, it is imperative to follow it.

Or in short; don't follow bad laws.
This isn't how any of this work. In your opinion anything should be legal, if people have the desire, that it should be. That isn't democratic, it's anarchy!
 

TimmmV

Member
Assuming there was a evidence that such a vote was demanded by the state's population (regardless of which way they intended to vote), it would be the moral duty of that governor to facilitate it. Legality should not factor into the process, so long as there is no viable legal path to fulfill the democratic mandate provided. Any legal system which would prevent such a path is inherently immoral.

Of course, where a political process exists, it is imperative to follow it.

Or in short; don't follow bad laws.

What you're saying is contradictory though

On the one hand you say that its ok to "not follow bad laws", yet earlier you refused to accept abstention when a person doesn't recognise a referendum as legal
 

tolkir

Member
If Catalonia's total state liabilities are only 70bn Euro they are absolutely fine. Catalonia has a nominal GDP of $255.204bn which puts their debt per GDP at under 50% which is considerably lower than that of Spain which has a debt to GDP of almost 100% an independent Catalan republic could be far more sustainable financially than Spain is.

image.php
 

Metal B

Member
If Catalonia's total state liabilities are only 70bn Euro they are absolutely fine. Catalonia has a nominal GDP of $255.204bn which puts their debt per GDP at under 50% which is considerably lower than that of Spain which has a debt to GDP of almost 100% an independent Catalan republic could be far more sustainable financially than Spain is.
For a few months before it will completely collapse in on itself. Spain and the EU will let them bleed to death.
 
what if they go independent and someone dont want the new nationality, does that person loose rights in the new country for being a foreigner , do they believe the double nationality would be granted or the central government would make you choose?
 

Walshicus

Member
This isn't how any of this work. In your opinion anything should be legal, if people have the desire, that it should be. That isn't democratic, it's anarchy!

I'm saying that legitimacy comes from the people within states and not from the states themselves. Law is a tool to facilitate justice, not a cudgel.

Liberal states govern by consent.
 

Theonik

Member
For a few months before it will completely collapse in on itself. Spain and the EU will let them bleed to death.
This isn't really how it works, but yes, short term they will need to borrow money and those bonds would probably have to carry a pretty hefty premium. It is impossible to tell how any of this would play out. My point is the existing debt is a no factor on Catalonia's future, their biggest issues is FUTURE financing they need after breaking away and keeping businesses in Catalonia. The later I would argue plays in their favour as businesses cannot move overnight though equally the mechanisms for raising revenues/taxes internally can't either. Who knows.

what if they go independent and someone dont want the new nationality, does that person loose rights in the new country for being a foreigner , do they believe the double nationality would be granted or the central government would make you choose?
Spain cannot remove their Spanish nationality. That would be illegal.
 
If Catalonia's total state liabilities are only 70bn Euro they are absolutely fine. Catalonia has a nominal GDP of $255.204bn which puts their debt per GDP at under 50% which is considerably lower than that of Spain which has a debt to GDP of almost 100%. An independent Catalan republic could be far more sustainable financially than Spain is.

But all of that is largely theoretical anyway the question is how much money Catalonia would need for independence, the size of the micro and macroeconomic impact of the split, whether they default on their share of the Spanish debt etc etc.
It doesn't work like that, Catalonian debt is also 100% of it's GDP unless they refuse to pay the part of Spain debt that was spent in Catalonia. Also the Generalitat haven't been able to sell debt in quite some time and they have deficit so they will have to default and stop paying their workers for a while.
 

Theonik

Member
It doesn't work like that, Catalonian debt is also 100% of it's GDP unless they refuse to pay the part of Spain debt that was spent in Catalonia. Also the Generalitat haven't been able to sell debt in quite some time and they have deficit so they will have to default and stop paying their workers for a while.
I'll have you know that all of these are powers sovereign states possess.
 
Then you aren't paying any attention at all.

Which is par with the course in this whole mess.

The biggest problem is not even the referendum, but the fact that the Catalonian government was determined to launch an unilateral declaration of independence even before the referendum. To this point they engineered an spurious vote rife with irregularities in which the separatist side could only succeed.

Even if you exclude the Spanish Constitution and the legal argument the entire process is is a complete disaster. The Catalonian government went all the way to organise it, even if that meant breaking its own rules. Which it did plenty of times.

The usual retort is to claim that Rajoy could have negotiated a proper referendum and avoid this mess. That's a logical trap. It's simply not true. Article 2 of the Constitution makes that impossible. For that the current Spanish government, which doesn't even have the numbers to pass a new budget by itself, let alone pass critical legislation (or the will to entertain the separatist side), would have needed to rebuild the Constitution so Spain would have to aknowledge that its regions can simply break away after a vote. That's basically a non starter, not just for Spain, but basically for any country. And the separatist side knew it, so knowing that Rajoy would act like the malignant fool that he is, hastened a referendum, fingers crossed for a confrontation. At the end of the day, this is about a local government declaring itself in rebellion. No country is ever going to agree to that.

And it's not like Catalonian government is acting in representation of the majority of the population anyway.



According to the official numbers of the Catalonian government before the referendum only a minority of Catalonians (around 41% or so) wanted the break away from Spain. The 49% was on the remain side and wanted none of this.

Despite this, the Catalonian government decided to rally the masses, claiming that they were being silenced and hastened a referendum that was anything but democratic. Puigdemont and his allies made a mockery of the requirement of neutrality by continously campaigning for the "yes" side, used the resources of the government towards the same aims and mounted a process enterely ran by the separatist side. There were no guarantees of any kind, next to no supervision and no proper census. The census, as a matter of fact, is my favourite bit regarding this event, as the Catalonian government declared a "universal census". This means that anybody could vote anywhere. Thus the hilarity:


That table comes from a partial source so I had to check if it was true. As far as I've seen, it is. A number of small towns in inner Catalonia, where the separatist movement is the strongest, had more people voting for independence than their actual population, let alone the voting census. Espinelves is particularly brazen, as the "yes" campaign obtained 527 votes in a small town of 156.

The numbers for each locality can be checked using the official results at La Vanguardia and the site of the institute of statistics of Catalonia.

Even if we are to accept the explanation of those tiny towns in profoundly pro-independence regions receiving such an aberrant amount of "yes" votes because of the police closing down a number of polling stations elsewhere, it goes on to show that the numbers cannot be trusted at all. As a matter of fact, the Catalonian government has yet to provide the full results three days after proclaiming the victory of the separatist side. They are using percentages and color bars instead now. Because that is something acceptable and not odd at all.

Yet here we have the separatist-led Catalonian government, using a referendum with no requirement for a minimum turnout yet binding with a simple majority, rife with damning irregularities, no guarantees, no neutrality, conducted in a state bordering on civil unrest (which can be partly blamed on Rajoy, no doubt about that) and violating the terms of the Venice Commission to proclaim what will probably be an unilateral declaration of independence. That is some nation building right there.

I mean, Rajoy should be in jail. He's been my most despised acting politician since the 11-M and I've actually made threads about it, but acting like the Catalonian government is being treated unfairly here or that there are no arguments against the referendum outside of the legalese regarding the Spanish Constitution... well... it's brazen, to say the least.





This is a sectarian confrontation spurred by two governments (Barcelona and Madrid) with barely enough political support to stay afloat, yet acting like they are absolute rulers with no regard towards half (and more) of their respective populations. Both Rajoy and Puigdemont need to go so we can right the situation.




The problem here is that Rajoy believes that this is going to reinforce his pathetic popularity in the rest of Spain (it won't).


1-

The Catalonian endgame was not the UDI, the fact that their are still debating internally about it, makes it clear. The endgame was the legal referendum which would inevitably end of a better autonomy. If people fully believes that the referendum wasn't more than a bluff they had to follow until the end, they don't get either Catalonia, the proces or it's politics.

2-

which doesn't even have the numbers to pass a new budget by itself[/B


If PP wants to change the constitution to allow a referendum, won't be alone like in the budget. Most parties in Spain would be favorable to it, except C's, which they would end allowing it.

The problem is not the finding the majority, the problem is PP itself, they are the ones that DON'T want to. They've been building a lot of votes over the extreme unionism they preached over for years, they would lost all these votes, aside from the ideological issue.

3-

A number of small towns in inner Catalonia, where the separatist movement is the strongest, had more people voting for independence than their actual population, let alone the voting census

Is called universal census. which was activated 30 minutes before the voting begins, which admitedly was a genious move that made all the police plan irrelevant.

I'm not gonna claim that the referendum is not illegal or have any kind of validity, only gonna claim that it became a social movement, a massive one of people that wanted to vote. 80% of catalans wants to vote on a proper referendum.

http://www.publico.es/espana/80-catalanes-favor-del-referendum.html

The thing is: People here wants to vote, for years central goverment denied a referendum (votes is not the problem, we changed already our constitution to obey our EU and banks overlords, this is an actual issue).

PP dosn't want to allow it, because they been feeding themselves with votes from spanish radical nationalists (and because they have Franco in their DNA). It's totally spitful hate agaisnt catalonia used as a scapegoat to their corruption.

I'm not gonna defend the actual Catalonian goverment, but PP is not leaving them with much choice now. They asked to pact a referendum, and they only found a wall, all this for years.

There's also the issue that if the 2006 catalonian estatut wasn't ruined by PP, we wouldn't be in this situation. Right now, they are the major block in this situation, that's undeniable, the catalonian goverment is willing to speak, they won't.

A referendum is absolutely the best solution to this, Catalonia wants it, and well used it would end the raise of secession nationalists. Insteado of repression, which is only going to further the movement. We need PP to actual sacrifice some votes for the good of his own country for fucking once in their whole history.

But they won't, because they are the politcal children of franco. And neither the catalonian goverment can't stop now, because the nationalist movement is gonna surpass the political spectrum and get out of their control. It already happened in a way, it was society who fighted to vote in 1-0, it was society who basically organized the whole thing, who had to fight and stand against repression.

Even if the catalonian goverment falls, there's not stopping this, and in the end, is gonna end on independence, sooner or later, unless the goverment or other national parties in Spain, accepts that the constitution needs a reform to basically remade Spain, and made it truly a plurinational country.
 

Metal B

Member
I'm saying that legitimacy comes from the people within states and not from the states themselves. Law is a tool to facilitate justice, not a cudgel.

Liberal states govern by consent.
Laws can only work, if those get enforced and they can't just be easily thrown over. The biggest laws are the hardest to change and the strongest to enforce. And then there are laws, which are impossible to change, and need to be protected under all cost, or the complete systems will collapses. That's why nobody can change them! Not citizen or politicians. There are the foundations of the state and law.

Thanks to this security a nation can create safety for its citizen, buissnes and allies. If you want to change such a big thing, you should be willing to destroy anything. People will die, money will be gone and allies will become enemies.

Laws aren't just tools, they are the construct of civilization. Don't play them down as just words and ideas, they have world destroying power. And they will explode, if you're not careful.
 

Theonik

Member
Laws can only work by force or by consensus. Any law is meaningless if the citizen will not obey it is how independence is always gained. By renouncing sovereignty of an entity.
 

Walshicus

Member
Laws can only work, if those get enforced and they can't just be easily thrown over. The biggest laws are the hardest to change and the strongest to enforce. And then there are laws, which are impossible to change, and need to be protected under all cost, or the complete systems will collapses. That's why nobody can change them! Not citizen or politicians. There are the foundations of the state and law.

Thanks to this security a nation can create safety for its citizen, buissnes and allies. If you want to change such a big thing, you should be willing to destroy anything. People will die, money will be gone and allies will become enemies.

Laws aren't just tools, they are the construct of civilization. Don't play them down as just words and ideas, they have world destroying power. And they will explode, if you're not careful.

This is almost ridiculous in how much it excuses tyranny. I presume you don't recognise those views as authoritarian?

Sorry, I find it hard to empathise with beliefs that place people second to systems.
 

Walshicus

Member
And people withheld theirs by boycotting the referendum.
Perhaps some did. Perhaps others feared being beaten up or killed by the Spanish regime's thugs.

Polling indicated consistently that an absolute majority of Catalans wanted to vote on the matter, and when offered, 90% voted positively.
 
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