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[mckmas8808]

But this is exactly why I'm disagreeing on this. Having a very consistent target in x86 arc should signficantly speed things up.

Example: Lets say ps5/X2 launch in 2019/2020. This becomes developers new and future baseline with the understanding that these systems are compatible with tools and APIs that can be applied to the PC versions as well.
They can consolidate their coding team and their target window becomes much MUCH smaller. Instead of having to release the same game targeting hardware 5-8 years old while also supporting the latest hardware and tools they have a smaller and reliable 3 year windows which they can increment. The end result would be faster game development using more recent tools because they are coding for such a wide install base. Think about it, Crysis 3 released in 2013 with these system requirements:
CPU:
Intel Core2 Duo 2.4 Ghz (E6600) / AMD Athlon64 X2 2.7 Ghz (5200+)
RAM:
2GB Memory (3GB on Vista)
GPU:
DirectX 11 graphics card with 1Gb Video RAM
Nvidia GTS 450 / AMD Radeon HD5770

Meanwhile developers also have to target Xbox 360 and PS3, systems where they have 512MB RAM total to share between them. Attempting to make the best PC game and scale down or starting at a low baseline and scaling up is hurting the industry and artificially holding back gaming. So many resources are devoted to supporting such a wide range of architectures and products that it really has little benefit to overall gaming. The idea of "coding to the metal" for exotic hardware is the same mindset which holds the industry back.

Yeah that's just not going to work. Have literal new generations every 3 years is too much of a shock to the system of every gamers like myself. It will only piss people off and it's not smart at all.

 

[kingpotato]

Real question here. Was thinking of upgrading my launch PS4 for a pro this month. Should I wait until after June to see if there are any official updates?

 

[halopower67]

I'd say PS4 backwards compat. is a given but no way on PS3. Completely different architecture. It'd need to be software emulation which woudl probably not be on launch and/or only be select titles.

 

[mckmas8808]

Real question here. Was thinking of upgrading my launch PS4 for a pro this month. Should I wait until after June to see if there are any official updates?

Get the PS4 this month. The fastest we'll really get a PS4 would be like 18 months from now.

 

[Sakura Doritos]

I'm not arguing against multithreading, I'm arguing multithreading isn't a replacement for clockspeed.

Example the Xbox 360 had a 3-core 3.2Ghz cpu. I'm a firm believing in multi-threading but not at the extreme detriment of clock speed like we have with the current generation. And when it comes to a price conscious system like a console you should invest in the highest single core performance with the most number of cores and threads. The current crop were not balanced. They took the approach of more cores at significantly lower frequencies and it didn't pay off long term. Having a decent clockspeed and decent number of threads should always be a balanced approach. It doesn't have to be either/or.

I don’t think you really want to prove your point with the 360 cpu. It was an in-order cpu design and from a work load perspective that needed the clock speed and SMT to make up for it being more like an embedded systems cpu than a modern at the time PC.

The Wii U’s cpu was more advanced with far less MHz. Had that been the cpu in the 360 from day one it probably would have seen some late PS3-like quality graphics earlier on and we’d may not even see Sony compete. Most of what we see with the Wii U third parties are rushed ports but BotW does actually play decent. Look what Nintendo did for BotW.

 

[TheMikado]

I don’t think you really want to prove your point with the 360 cpu. It was an in-order cpu design and from a work load perspective that needed the clock speed and SMT to make up for it being more like an embedded systems cpu than a modern at the time PC.

The Wii U’s cpu was more advanced with far less MHz. Had that been the cpu in the 360 from day one it probably would have seen some late PS3-like quality graphics earlier on and we’d may not even see Sony compete. Most of what we see with the Wii U third parties are rushed ports but BotW does actually play decent. Look what Nintendo did for BotW.

How could that possible be in the X360??? The 360 came out in 2005 and the Wii U released in 2012, a 6 year difference in hardware and software development, they weren't even the same generation. OoOE will always be superior but at the cost of die space and power. X360 launched using 90nm chips while the Wii U launched with 45nm chips.

 

[TheMikado]

Yeah that's just not going to work. Have literal new generations every 3 years is too much of a shock to the system of every gamers like myself. It will only piss people off and it's not smart at all.

I'm not seeing it. iPhones cost more, new versions every year, and go obsolete with software at a faster rate than consoles and Apple and consumers seem to be doing just fine. I can't even download and run the Hulu app to stream tv shows on an iPad 2. The gaming industry has always historically have hardware refreshes every 3 years. That's how it's always been until very recently.

 

[Kagero]

Real question here. Was thinking of upgrading my launch PS4 for a pro this month. Should I wait until after June to see if there are any official updates?

I upgraded to a pro and unless you have a 4K TV or your current PS4 is dying I wouldn't suggest against it. I'm not seeing huge differences TBH. I'm sure side by side the differences are noticeable but I'm not wowed by the upgrade. I will say that I am playing on 1080p TV and relying on super sampling but yeah....Not too impressed.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

I just hope they load up on RAM. I think the lesson learned from current gen is that you can never have enough.

 

[llien]

And when it comes to a price conscious system like a console you should invest in the highest single core performance with the most number of cores and threads.

I can't find the source for it, but as I remember, Sony's first studio guys were asked if they'd go with 50%-ish faster 4 core or 8 core Jaguar, they've picked Jaguar.

 

[mckmas8808]

I'm not seeing it. iPhones cost more, new versions every year, and go obsolete with software at a faster rate than consoles and Apple and consumers seem to be doing just fine. I can't even download and run the Hulu app to stream tv shows on an iPad 2. The gaming industry has always historically have hardware refreshes every 3 years. That's how it's always been until very recently.

iPhones have a completely different purchase model. Lots of people don't even pay the $800 cash for that phone. The price is wrapped up into a bill of some sort. Now if MS wanted to create a Xbox Live, Game Pass, Xbox bi-yearly upgrade model that cost $29.99 a month then maybe they would come out with a new Xbox every 2 years and no one would complain.

 

[photogaz]

I think next gen is going to cross over more than we think. Hopefully Sony will pull it off.

 

[Codes 208]

Ok since everyone is posting theirs... here are my predictions:

- The CPU will absolutely be Zen/Zen+/Zen2 based, no more than 8 cores;
- Aiming for 32GB RAM; but 16 or even 24 isn't out of the question;
- Aiming for an SSHD instead of an HDD or a pure SSD;
- GPU will be based on nextgen AMD Radeon, but custom built for VR purposes;
- Total system performance will be around 10 to 12TFs;
- Digital PS4 games you own will be downloadable and playable on PS5 in higher res/better performance;
- Backwards compatibility with PS4 and PS3;
- Next gen PSVR will be available from the beginning and it will be cheaper;
- PlayGo and OS will be taken to a next level and will be snappy and very functional.


And this is what I k... think will happen.

for the bolded.

-Why 32 though? Even with today's most demanding games 12gb of RAM is fairly overkill especially for a console. Why does the system need 32gb? 12-16gb sounds more likely.

-this has been brought up before but i personally doubt theyll switch to ssd. 4k textures will require more memory and it'd be cheaper to implement a 4tb hdd over say, even a measly 500gb ssd.

-i dont think itll automatically play ps4 games at a higher rez because devs to go into their games to specifically allow for that. It'd simply be the same thing as pro where some games may see a patch but not every game. That said, i do expect it to be BC with ps4. But probably not ps3. They cant just bruteforce the games to work, CELL was complicated AF to develop for.

 

[TheMikado]

I can't find the source for it, but as I remember, Sony's first studio guys were asked if they'd go with 50%-ish faster 4 core or 8 core Jaguar, they've picked Jaguar.

I wouldn't mind seeing what they have to say on it.

iPhones have a completely different purchase model. Lots of people don't even pay the $800 cash for that phone. The price is wrapped up into a bill of some sort. Now if MS wanted to create a Xbox Live, Game Pass, Xbox bi-yearly upgrade model that cost $29.99 a month then maybe they would come out with a new Xbox every 2 years and no one would complain.

But Microsoft literally already did that with the Xbox 360. It would only make even MORE sense in a frequent hardware refresh environment. What we are looking at is the real endgame of everything they've been doing to turn these systems into services rather than products.

https://www.theverge.com/2012/5/7/3004973/xbox-360-99-two-year-contract-launch

https://www.theverge.com/2012/10/23/3542196/xbox-360-250gb-two-year-contract-subsidy

 

[kingpotato]

I upgraded to a pro and unless you have a 4K TV or your current PS4 is dying I wouldn't suggest against it. I'm not seeing huge differences TBH. I'm sure side by side the differences are noticeable but I'm not wowed by the upgrade. I will say that I am playing on 1080p TV and relying on super sampling but yeah....Not too impressed.

I do not have a 4k tv, but my current PS4 is getting very loud and the UI isn't nearly as snappy as it once was.. I was hoping for a quieter machine and any framerate or loading improvements would be icing.

 

[kingpotato]

Sorry if someone said this earlier, but any chance it is just the psvr processing unit internalized into a ps4pro? Basically just a newer pro model?

 

[Kagero]

I do not have a 4k tv, but my current PS4 is getting very loud and the UI isn't nearly as snappy as it once was.. I was hoping for a quieter machine and any framerate or loading improvements would be icing.

I would say if your in need of a new one anyway then go for the pro for sure. It's not even much more money and you're getting a lot of benefits. Plus you can't afford to miss out on GOW and Spiderman.

 

[LordOfChaos]

rumors at present are that these new boxes (PS5 and XboxTwo) are coming in ~2 years to coincide with the availability of 7nm manufacturing yeah?

It's somewhat problematic to predict the future based on the past because a major shakeup In the methods used for technological progress and production are due for a major shakeup sometime in the future. assuming 7nm will be where we are at in ~2 years is not guaranteed, it could be off either too soon or too late, we'll just have to wait and see. moores law has been a historically reliable precedent in the past, but like I said a shakeup is coming. before we used the "nm" or "nanometer" scale, I'm talking about the past here, we used "microns" or "um" to speak about this kind of thing. that changed, now we use "nanometers" to speak about this kind of thing.

the sky isn't falling or anything, at least not within any of our lifetimes. but predictions about the future based on the past aren't necessarily reliable wrt computer technology. PlayStation and Xbox use the same basic technology as PCs and cell phones, "Playstation" and "Xbox" are just Brand Names(TM)

They'd be running engineering samples all along those two years to avoid nasty surprises no doubt. But worst case, they'd both have to delay it whatever months, so it's almost mutually assured competition anyways. If someone shipped a full fab node behind them they'd be uncompetitive on power.

 

[Garani]

Also the consoleprice sweetspot needs to be 500.

Having seen what happened between the PS4 and the XB1, I'd beg to differ.

The sweet spot is under 399. Anything more than that it won't sell. And we have seen this with the PS3 and the XB1, PS4Pro, XB1X

 

[magnumpy]

Sorry if someone said this earlier, but any chance it is just the psvr processing unit internalized into a ps4pro? Basically just a newer pro model?

yes, this needs to happen for next-gen VR. it's not something with universal appeal but there is enough interest already with the windows mixed reality, oculus rift, psvr, htc vive, etc. there are other examples but I think there is enough industry support from a wide variety of manufacturers that it's not going away anytime soon IMO.

the big problem with the PlayStation example is the ease of installation/use that it's just too convoluted requiring all kinds of adapters and a mess of cables going across your floor to get it running. for the next generation, it should be much simpler to install. this could be dealt with in a generational refresh. it could even be wireless, like with the Oculus go. give it an onboard battery and a charging cradle.

 

[mckmas8808]

I wouldn't mind seeing what they have to say on it.



But Microsoft literally already did that with the Xbox 360. It would only make even MORE sense in a frequent hardware refresh environment. What we are looking at is the real endgame of everything they've been doing to turn these systems into services rather than products.

https://www.theverge.com/2012/5/7/3004973/xbox-360-99-two-year-contract-launch

https://www.theverge.com/2012/10/23/3542196/xbox-360-250gb-two-year-contract-subsidy

They must have done a horrible job with this thing, because I've never even heard of it lol. What did GAF say when this was announced?

 

[daibaron]

X4? I suspect MS will give it a very lame name like Xbox One v2 or Xbox One 2020... I never understood why they can't number things like 1,2,3,4, etc.

I don't see 64GB ram happening in 2019 or 2020, i don't see how a console with 10-15tf aiming for 4k would even use more than 16-20gb except for cache (16-20gb available for games, not console total ram).

X1x Cpu can't catch up with nextgen CPUs, so it doesn't matter if it has 6tf or 20tf, it will still be 8th gen.

By pratically i meant a very big jump for mid gen refresh. I wasnt expecting games running in 4k with high settings. The cpu is still shit though.

 

[daibaron]

Having seen what happened between the PS4 and the XB1, I'd beg to differ.

The sweet spot is under 399. Anything more than that it won't sell. And we have seen this with the PS3 and the XB1, PS4Pro, XB1X

But remember it will be 2019/20, there is inflation, rise of salaries and costs. 400 now means much less than in 2007. It is not worse because we had a big crisis for several years, especially in europe.

 

[daibaron]

Having seen what happened between the PS4 and the XB1, I'd beg to differ.

The sweet spot is under 399. Anything more than that it won't sell. And we have seen this with the PS3 and the XB1, PS4Pro, XB1X

The xb1 cost 500 and was even worse than ps4, all because of kinect.

PS3 had bluray player, hdd as standard, free online plus a very exotic cell. But 600 at the time was a bit too much and the multiplats were easier on 360.

 

[Deputy Moonman]

iPhones have a completely different purchase model. Lots of people don't even pay the $800 cash for that phone. The price is wrapped up into a bill of some sort. Now if MS wanted to create a Xbox Live, Game Pass, Xbox bi-yearly upgrade model that cost $29.99 a month then maybe they would come out with a new Xbox every 2 years and no one would complain.

Not only that but phones can have significant upgrades in multiple areas. A console's biggest selling point is graphics alone, and the noticeable improvement in graphics from one gen to the next is going to be less and less if consoles try to come out with a new gen every 3 years. Its not just money but what will make someone spend that money. Devs need more time these days to make games, which kind of dictates that console generations are going to be longer and longer.

 

[TheMikado]

They must have done a horrible job with this thing, because I've never even heard of it lol. What did GAF say when this was announced?

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/us-9...with-two-year-subscription-15-a-month.472543/
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/99-xbox-w-2-year-15-month-contract-official.473185/
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/microsoft-expanding-99-xbox-program-to-best-buy-gamestop.477278/
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/pach...-720-400-or-99-with-subscription-plan.498354/

Then people realized this:
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/those-360-systems-for-99-yeah-you-cant-resell-them.512776/
Which led to more complaining about always online Xbox One

Here what Microsoft had to say about it:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-quietly-pulls-xbox-360-two-year-contract-plans-1394665538

The subsidy model was not applied to Microsoft's new Xbox One, which was introduced in November.


Microsoft's experience points to the difficulties of changing people's hardware-buying habits. BLOOMBERG
This week, Microsoft spokesman David Dennis confirmed the company discontinued the Xbox 360 offer in July. "This program was intended to be a pilot experiment from the start, and Microsoft routinely adjusts the mix of offers available to its customers and this change was simply standard business practice," he said.

When the program was launched in May 2012, some analysts speculated Microsoft might be testing the approach to use on the then-unannounced Xbox One. But Lewis Ward, a videogame analyst at IDC, said Microsoft executives last year told analysts the pricing shift had been a way to milk waning sales for the Xbox 360, the console version launched in 2005.

"Part of the calculus was probably the numbers of customers who were buying Xbox 360 through that approach tapered off," Mr. Ward said. The subscription option was for "squeezing the last 10-15% out of the potential market."

In October 2012, Matt Barlow, general manager for marketing in Microsoft's interactive entertainment unit, said the pricing scheme was likely to remain through future product launches. "This type of program is pivotal to our business," he said in an interview at the time.

Now, based on all this we have no idea if the original intent was to have a subscription option with the XBO being an always on console or if it will be used strictly for end of life consoles. Example: The X360 program was announced two years before the XBO and locked users into a two year rate at prices higher than what the console price was dropping at. Part of the complaint was that users were not getting enough with the 360 sub, but if they can offer these games on demand and other options it may make a more compelling service. But who knows what happens next in the industry.

 

[TheMikado]

My personal prediction is that consoles are moving more to closed box services and ecosystems which will be subsidized by those subscription services. Just looking at Playstation for example, it would be perfectly reasonable to subsidize their latest box to $99 or even free and have a Vue/Plus/Now/Music subscription.

We know MS just got their own games subscription service and are spinning up a streaming service of their own within the next couple of years, just in time for the next gen console.

 

[Insane Metal]

for the bolded.

-Why 32 though? Even with today's most demanding games 12gb of RAM is fairly overkill especially for a console. Why does the system need 32gb? 12-16gb sounds more likely.

-this has been brought up before but i personally doubt theyll switch to ssd. 4k textures will require more memory and it'd be cheaper to implement a 4tb hdd over say, even a measly 500gb ssd.

-i dont think itll automatically play ps4 games at a higher rez because devs to go into their games to specifically allow for that. It'd simply be the same thing as pro where some games may see a patch but not every game. That said, i do expect it to be BC with ps4. But probably not ps3. They cant just bruteforce the games to work, CELL was complicated AF to develop for.

Let's see what happens in 5 years and games running at 2160p.

 

[flashfire926]

Right now, in April 2018 The Xbox One X is retailing at $499. Microsoft isnt even making a profit, only merely breaking even.

How could a PS5 in 2019 possibly be much more powerful than the X at $399? The one thing that would advantageous to Sony is that their new hardware wont be tethered to an older, weaker console like the X is, but I still think waiting until 2020 is a must.

 

[Codes 208]

Let's see what happens in 5 years and games running at 2160p.

Well There are games today that run 2160p on both xb1x and pro. Ram isnt a bottleneck, the gpu is. Cpu too if we're talking framerate. Ram is important for textures and bandwidth for memory reading, but for overall performance and graphical fidelity, 8-12gb of unified memory is already good enough for a solid 4k experience. Anything higher than that, or 16 tops really, will likely go unused and just be a waste of space

 

[bitbydeath]

Right now, in April 2018 The Xbox One X is retailing at $499. Microsoft isnt even making a profit, only merely breaking even.

How could a PS5 in 2019 possibly be much more powerful than the X at $399? The one thing that would advantageous to Sony is that their new hardware wont be tethered to an older, weaker console like the X is, but I still think waiting until 2020 is a must.

Pro and X wouldn’t get the same deals from AMD as an OG console would as production lines are far smaller. Also keep in mind XB1X uses a 16nm chip which is more material/cost over the expected 7nm in the PS5, then we have two year gap in technology and costs and Sony could further take a hit on pricing to get it even further over whichever figure they’re aiming for.

 

[Ar¢tos]

The day gaming becomes streaming and/or subscription only is the day I quit gaming. I don't think that will happen anytime in the next 30 years. There is revenue in physical gaming and a large chunk of the world doesn't have great Internet and/or prefers physical. At least for Sony, adding a disc drive costs them pennies. They are a hardware manufacturer and already mass produce them for their other electronics, and for other companies. They also get royalties from every bluray drive and disc sold since they are the member of the bluray group with the most patents on the bluray tech.
MS is very America centered, (I can't blame them for that, since they don't "exist" in Asia and their success in Europe has been limited), maybe that strategy can work for them, but I doubt Sony would ever try it.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

The day gaming becomes streaming and/or subscription only is the day I quit gaming. I don't think that will happen anytime in the next 30 years. There is revenue in physical gaming and a large chunk of the world doesn't have great Internet and/or prefers physical. At least for Sony, adding a disc drive costs them pennies. They are a hardware manufacturer and already mass produce them for their other electronics, and for other companies. They also get royalties from every bluray drive and disc sold since they are the member of the bluray group with the most patents on the bluray tech.
MS is very America centered, (I can't blame them for that, since they don't "exist" in Asia and their success in Europe has been limited), maybe that strategy can work for them, but I doubt Sony would ever try it.

I always laugh at people making the argument that the world doesn't have good internet but always speak on behalf of 'others'. The world carried on without Blockbuster video.

 

[TheMikado]

The day gaming becomes streaming and/or subscription only is the day I quit gaming. I don't think that will happen anytime in the next 30 years. There is revenue in physical gaming and a large chunk of the world doesn't have great Internet and/or prefers physical. At least for Sony, adding a disc drive costs them pennies. They are a hardware manufacturer and already mass produce them for their other electronics, and for other companies. They also get royalties from every bluray drive and disc sold since they are the member of the bluray group with the most patents on the bluray tech.
MS is very America centered, (I can't blame them for that, since they don't "exist" in Asia and their success in Europe has been limited), maybe that strategy can work for them, but I doubt Sony would ever try it.

Man this reminds me of the people who swore that landlines would always be relevant.

 

[Swizzle]

Man this reminds me of the people who swore that landlines would always be relevant.

On the other side of the coin not whatever the industry pitches as good for everyone is good for anybody but itself... remember distal distribution being heralded as just the same as physical distribution, but just much cheaper because reasons? Yeah... hence why I get right of resale and pay less for games in general when I buy them physically on Amazon (brand new) instead of digitally. It turns out the industry was lying ... surprise...

 

[metareferential]

On the other side of the coin not whatever the industry pitches as good for everyone is good for anybody but itself... remember distal distribution being heralded as just the same as physical distribution, but just much cheaper because reasons? Yeah... hence why I get right of resale and pay less for games in general when I buy them physically on Amazon (brand new) instead of digitally. It turns out the industry was lying ... surprise...

Spot on. And it's a matter of quality of gaming too. I play on pc, and I (heavily) invest in my own processing power because I expect more out of my games, even through sheer brute-force (which is exactly what ps4pro and x1x are doing).

Man this reminds me of the people who swore that landlines would always be relevant.

They are, they just changed into something else (fiber internet). xD

Until they provide us with a service that is cheaper and better than buying our own hardware, we'll just keep doing that. It's more pc-related than console-related, though.

Eventually consoles will just fade away, as processing power goes up.

 

[bitbydeath]

I always laugh at people making the argument that the world doesn't have good internet but always speak on behalf of 'others'. The world carried on without Blockbuster video.

Blockbuster is still around.

 

[GoldenEye98]

Yeah I never understand the arguments about always online or digital only when it specifically comes to console gaming. Having to be always online and your internet speed is fine for everything else including using smartphone, YouTube, Netflix, but when it comes it gaming that's where it suddenly is a problem?

Also isn't PC gaming essentially digital only now?

It's seems to me that internet speed isn't the problem but not being able to resell the games is. Maybe they need to allow for digital game rentals.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

Blockbuster is still around.

Yet you're the same one going on about how the Xbox One requires you to be online to play your games.

Yeah I never understand the arguments about always online or digital only when it specifically comes to console gaming. Having to be always online and your internet speed is fine for everything else including using smartphone, YouTube, Netflix, but when it comes it gaming that's where it suddenly is a problem?

Also isn't PC gaming essentially digital only now?

It's seems to me that internet speed isn't the problem but not being able to resell the games is. Maybe they need to allow for digital game rentals.

Let's face it, people will put forward any argument because they like physical media. I do too. The industry wants to go digital there's no two ways about it. It's already happened pretty much on pc and mobile gaming. Music has basically gone the way of streaming, same with movies. Sony tried to not allow the PS4 to play music CD's (acted surprised people still have CD's and listen to mp3), Microsoft tried to go fully online (but never went through with it due to huge backlash). Many indie games can only be bought digitally. Sony paid hundreds of millions to get a streaming service. Microsoft is apparently doing well with Game Pass. So tell me, what direction are they heading towards?

 

[GoldenEye98]

Yet you're the same one going on about how the Xbox One requires you to be online to play your games.



Let's face it, people will put forward any argument because they like physical media. I do too. The industry wants to go digital there's no two ways about it. It's already happened pretty much on pc and mobile gaming. Music has basically gone the way of streaming, same with movies. Sony tried to not allow the PS4 to play music CD's (acted surprised people still have CD's and listen to mp3), Microsoft tried to go fully online (but never went through with it due to huge backlash). Many indie games can only be bought digitally. Sony paid hundreds of millions to get a streaming service. Microsoft is apparently doing well with Game Pass. So tell me, what direction are they heading towards?

Well clearly people are indifferent to physical media in every other entertainment medium. Music, TV, movies all pretty much digital/streaming now.

Anyway I think it's an economic issue not a digital vs physical issue. Gaming is expensive and for people who play a lot of games being able to resell games makes it more feasible. But I think the solution is for there to be digital rentals and or subscription services like gamepass. Because if you buy a new game for $60 and then sell it/trade it in for $40 a month later you are just essentially renting it for $20.

It's not a physical vs digital problem, it's a business model problem.

 

[grumpyGamer]

I understand the need for digital, but i am a collector, i don´t buy digital.
And just like me there are others, there will always be physical, but reduced i believe.

if it goes digital i will stop buying and start the pirating, i will not give money to someone who only "lends" me they re service and can block my console or games library just because they feel like i broke a rule or said something they did not like.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

Well clearly people are indifferent to physical media in every other entertainment medium. Music, TV, movies all pretty much digital/streaming now.

Anyway I think it's an economic issue not a digital vs physical issue. Gaming is expensive and for people who play a lot of games being able to resell games makes it more feasible. But I think the solution is for there to be digital rentals and or subscription services like gamepass. Because if you buy a new game for $60 and then sell it/trade it in for $40 a month later you are just essentially renting it for $20.

It's not a physical vs digital problem, it's a business model problem.

I don't know, we keep hearing how they don't dare piss off the retailers that's why the price is the same. Now the world is ending because Microsoft is putting their games on Game Pass day of release. The fact is the world never ended with Steam and the pc seems to be doing alright, not sure why console gamers think they are somehow immune and carry on about how they will quit gaming if it happens that physical dies out.

I do agree, much more needs to be done with trade-ins for digital games. I've been vocal about that in the past. Microsoft actually had some good ideas with the Xbox One prior to release in that area but it was so poorly explained they deserved the backlash.

 

[TheMikado]

On the other side of the coin not whatever the industry pitches as good for everyone is good for anybody but itself... remember distal distribution being heralded as just the same as physical distribution, but just much cheaper because reasons? Yeah... hence why I get right of resale and pay less for games in general when I buy them physically on Amazon (brand new) instead of digitally. It turns out the industry was lying ... surprise...

It’s only a matter time of time before physical media evaporates for the most part.

The day gaming becomes streaming and/or subscription only is the day I quit gaming. I don't think that will happen anytime in the next 30 years. There is revenue in physical gaming and a large chunk of the world doesn't have great Internet and/or prefers physical. At least for Sony, adding a disc drive costs them pennies. They are a hardware manufacturer and already mass produce them for their other electronics, and for other companies. They also get royalties from every bluray drive and disc sold since they are the member of the bluray group with the most patents on the bluray tech.
MS is very America centered, (I can't blame them for that, since they don't "exist" in Asia and their success in Europe has been limited), maybe that strategy can work for them, but I doubt Sony would ever try it.

https://ipcarrier.blogspot.com/2013/05/internet-speeds-have-grown-10x-every-5.html?m=1

Access speeds in the U.S. and other markets have grown by an order of magnitude (10x) every five years, since about 1990. If you assume that speeds were about 10 Mbps in 2010, that suggests U.S. consumers will be buying 100 Mbps services by about 2015, and could be buying 1 Gbps services by 2020.


That will be a shock for most ISPs, but would simply follow the pattern of typical bandwidth since 1990.

In 30 year bandwidth wont even be an issue. Gaming, and specifically console gaming is one of the few media where it’s consumers are desperately clinging to physical media. PC gaming has already far evolved into the coming business model through steam where you can get new releases, ad supported free games, and older back catalogue for pennies. The humble bundles and psn flash sales are better for consumers.

While I certainly sympathize with the economics of new games and game trades, I’d argue that they are far more damaging to the industry than helping it.

Here is what I see in the next 10-20 years.
The game industry has hit a threshold. The point of diminishing returns where the power to play most games in a resolution suitable for the screen and photorealistic real-time are realities. Game asset size has stabilized due to the best resolution for the human eye to discern being achieved in the same way that audio assessment s have for the most part stabilized in size. The specific platform is not very relevant for the experience you will achieve as parity is primarily there through equivalent platforms.

Internet speeds as such that physical media for mass market distribution of digital goods is actually more expensive then its worth.

The next 5-10 years will dramatically change this industry, but ironically I believe it will change into a more traditional model where you upgrade you box every few years and I think in 30 years it’s possible your TV or cell phone itself could be powerful enough to run the content developers make.

 

[onQ123]

Right now, in April 2018 The Xbox One X is retailing at $499. Microsoft isnt even making a profit, only merely breaking even.

How could a PS5 in 2019 possibly be much more powerful than the X at $399? The one thing that would advantageous to Sony is that their new hardware wont be tethered to an older, weaker console like the X is, but I still think waiting until 2020 is a must.

Easy because it will be on a 7nm process & it will be using new tech . it's like when the Wii U came out in 2012 using modified Wii processors then PS4 & Xbox One came out a year later & a lot more powerful.

 

[Sakura Doritos]

How could that possible be in the X360??? The 360 came out in 2005 and the Wii U released in 2012, a 6 year difference in hardware and software development, they weren't even the same generation. OoOE will always be superior but at the cost of die space and power. X360 launched using 90nm chips while the Wii U launched with 45nm chips.

You may be moving goalposts of the argument I was responding to. You were talking about balance of threads and MHz for this next gen and used the 360 as an example. I don't necessarily disagree with intent I disagree with the argument you made with the 360. Also, let's not forget the Wii CPU existed and had IBM not shafted Sony by giving Microsoft tech it was making for the Cell you could easily had seen a triple 90nm OoO Broadway based 360 CPU which would have been a a 65nm just one year later.

But that is all conjecture. If the current Jaguar at 2.1-2.3 are doing 4kish at 30 then the future gen looks bright even if they don't hit 3.0ghz on zen to get 4kish 60. And it may not even be that dire if we get variable refresh on the new TVs and consoles.

 

[Ar¢tos]

When games cost 69.99€ (85.98$) digital in EU vs 59.99$ (48.82€) in US, its very easy to see why the attachment to physical, at least in EU, since you can always resell and you can get new games for 55€ on release day if you have a pre-order, most retailers do this sort of promotions.
I switched to digital only because its cheaper for me to buy games from US PSN, otherwise I would be buying physical and reselling. But with 5mb Internet, it takes me 2 days to download a big game.

 

[flashfire926]

Easy because it will be on a 7nm process & it will be using new tech . it's like when the Wii U came out in 2012 using modified Wii processors then PS4 & Xbox One came out a year later & a lot more powerful.

But PS4 and XONE were $100 more in price then Wii U. If PS5 is $600, sure, we can see a good leap. But that aint gonna happen.
In this situation, people think that PS5 will cost $100 LESS then X1X. How will they provide a good leap without taking a good loss?

 

[TheMikado]

You may be moving goalposts of the argument I was responding to. You were talking about balance of threads and MHz for this next gen and used the 360 as an example. I don't necessarily disagree with intent I disagree with the argument you made with the 360. Also, let's not forget the Wii CPU existed and had IBM not shafted Sony by giving Microsoft tech it was making for the Cell you could easily had seen a triple 90nm OoO Broadway based 360 CPU which would have been a a 65nm just one year later.

But that is all conjecture. If the current Jaguar at 2.1-2.3 are doing 4kish at 30 then the future gen looks bright even if they don't hit 3.0ghz on zen to get 4kish 60. And it may not even be that dire if we get variable refresh on the new TVs and consoles.

I don’t think the goalposts are moving. We’re talking about the trade offs between more cores and core speed and that just adding cores especially at the expense of clock speed doesn’t translate into immediate gains. If we get the choice between a 4Ghz+ 6 core and a 3Ghz 8 core were at the point where you aren’t going to get much difference from the additional clockspeed. But if it was between a 3+ 6 core and a 2+ GHz 8 core I’m personally looking at the gaming PC standard each time which would be the 3+GHz 6 core. Which is of course with the expectations that consoles and PCs will share the same arch on the future.

 

[Codes 208]

But PS4 and XONE were $100 more in price then Wii U. If PS5 is $600, sure, we can see a good leap. But that aint gonna happen.
In this situation, people think that PS5 will cost $100 LESS then X1X. How will they provide a good leap without taking a good loss?

Wasnt the wii u $350 at launch? They dropped it to $300 as a countermeasure (lol what good did that do?) against ps4/xb1. Not to mention XBO was $150 more than the wii u because it launched at $500 with the kinect. And keep in mind it was Nintendo that priced the Wii u the way they did. These are the same guys who thought the og 3ds would sell at $250.

As for next gen. Two years after the X1X, a boost in performance thanks to a more modern up-to-date architecture with 7nm isn't a impossibility. Especially if theyre aiming for 11tflops.

And they could eat the cost. MS did that with 360 (And they took a pretty hefty loss alongside that due to RRoD) but they were able to pretty much break even because of xbox live gold

 

[longdi]

I can see where Sony is heading.
PS5 in 2019, a bit early but it is 6 years after PS4. $399 with backward compatibility, a pure gaming console. Strike while PS4 is beloved still.
Say XB2 launch in 2020, Sony will lose the specs war but gain the user base.
Then in 2022, we will probably have PS5 Pro and that will regain the graphics lead for Sony for that generation.

Unless MS wants to abandon the XB1X early, then they will keep playing catch up to Sony for next gen.