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Opinion: A $99 Disc-less Xbox One could lead to another Kinect-level success!

Let's say at the GDC Microsoft comes on stage reveales the disc-less Xbox One, and Phil comes in with a kings crown on his head shouts "$99.99" and drops the mic. It would be an epic conference because the message will be clear: The gen is over.

If MS can pull it off, since you can get an original Xbox One or S for <$200 and $250 respectively, you could have a Kinect level success. World Wide digital is growing, and there are already millions of people all over jumping in on it. Xbox One already has several of the biggest games on XBL, but with Gamepass it gives a new incentive for people to go all digital, and add the fact that Microsoft is the only one of the big 3 with BC and actual long-term digital support consistency, it would be a steal.

Adding to the damage, you have the upcoming streaming platform allowing even more options on you're all digital gaming device. This could be a huge deal.

Sony could potentially counter with a disc-less PS4, but the likely hood of it being $99 is slim, but even so, Microsoft currently objectively has the better digital infrastructure (technology and server wise) and has a better record of long-term support and compatibility that may cause some to Switch or new buyers to Jump in

Using a $250 base Xbox One S as an example:

-Remove the 4K blu-ray drive from the: shave $100
-Remove unnecessary optional ports that aren't popularly used: shave $25
-Shrink the box size making manufacturing process cheaper: Shave $25

Total: $99

That's an easy $99 all digital box that could take off selling Kinect-like numbers, closing the gap. Going into Best Buy and Gamespot and not only seeing a $99 digital Xbox One, but also gamepass making games cheaper and streaming coming in the future gives a good reason

Even parents will pick it up for their kids, as they will still be playing MP with strangers and/or friends, but this time they don't have to spend $190 on 6 games, don't have a shelf cluttered with plastic, and a console that costs only $99!
 
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For 99 dollars I’d consider it for the game pass access that I already pay for as just a PC user.

Knock 150 bucks off for a discless X and I’m pre-ordering instantly
 

jshackles

Gentlemen, we can rebuild it. We have the capability to make the world's first enhanced store. Steam will be that store. Better than it was before.
In 2016 when the Xbox One S released, the manufacturing cost of the 1TB internal hard drive and the 4K blu ray disc drive, were TOGETHER about $88. Even if the optical drive was half of that, that means Microsoft's cost of the part (two years ago) was only about $45. I imagine that years later and economies to scale and all that, Microsoft probably isn't paying more than about $25 in manufacturing costs on these drives.

Shrinking the box design would probably end up costing them WAY more than they would ever save in manufacturing costs as well. They would need to come up with new designs, a new manufacturing process, new components that fit (the current S motherboard takes up the full size of the bottom of the console). Redesigns cost money - money they're not likely to make up for by saving a few pennies each on plastic.

The only reason they would have for dropping the consumer price by $100-$150 for not having a disc drive would be to incentivize people away from the second hand market.
 
Nah. Such a move could bolster Xbox One sales in the short term, but at this point, I see Xbox One as a sunk cost transformed into the staging grounds for the next Xbox, where Microsoft is busy prototyping the ideas and services that are to define the next Xbox. There's no 'saving' the Xbox One in a manner that will turn it into a huge sales success, and I don't even think it's in Microsoft's best interest to attempt to.
 
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Stuart360

Member
Had no idea we had 35 million people on Gaf, Take that Resetera!
35mil Kinect sold, yet it lasted like 2 years tops, and gamers revolted against the XB1 for having Kinect as part of it. That tells you how successful Kinect was. Sales figures dont always tell the whole picture.
 

alienator

Member
Its still an xbox one s. less powerfull than a base ps4 rite? Would ms want to market this as the least powerfull digital only streaming console ?

I know,.. i know.. they are just testing the waters for a digital only future, no need to sacrifice an xbox one x for that.
But what happened back then when the one s had a 4k drive and stoopid Sony didnt even bother? Streaming 4k movies was bad rite ?

I have an og xbox one here , not even an s, and its my least used console of any generation, it has a few great games i really really love (hello Killer Instict!) but im seriously wondering who wants to buy this and who they are aiming for. (as the X seems the best platform to play on , as i must believe all the PR talk.)

i just dont get it. u can go digital only already since the start of this gen and still have a drive (backward compatibility?)

So who's thinking, hey i never had an xbox but at 99$ i would definately buy this! Ive had 6 years this gen to buy one but i never seem to have interrest in one anyways, but now i will ?

questions, questions.
 
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In 2016 when the Xbox One S released, the manufacturing cost of the 1TB internal hard drive and the 4K blu ray disc drive, were TOGETHER about $88. Even if the optical drive was half of that, that means Microsoft's cost of the part (two years ago) was only about $45. I imagine that years later and economies to scale and all that, Microsoft probably isn't paying more than about $25 in manufacturing costs on these drives.

Shrinking the box design would probably end up costing them WAY more than they would ever save in manufacturing costs as well. They would need to come up with new designs, a new manufacturing process, new components that fit (the current S motherboard takes up the full size of the bottom of the console). Redesigns cost money - money they're not likely to make up for by saving a few pennies each on plastic.

The only reason they would have for dropping the consumer price by $100-$150 for not having a disc drive would be to incentivize people away from the second hand market.

Thanks for continuing to assert this every single time.
 

jshackles

Gentlemen, we can rebuild it. We have the capability to make the world's first enhanced store. Steam will be that store. Better than it was before.
I mean that's the reason why they are doing this in the first place so might as well.

Don't get me wrong dude, I'm all for a discless Xbox. I don't think I've put a single disc into my X before. I played a few disc-based games (and did some BC with discs) on my S and that was fine - but they started re-releasing digital copies of backwards compatible games that were previous disc-only, like Blue Dragon, and I re-bought them digitally for the convenience of it. For me, the disc drive is a waste and if I could have paid less for my X because I didn't plan on using it, it would have been all the better.

The rumor is that these things are going to MRSP for $249.99 - but I think their DOA if they're any more expensive than $149.99. At $99 I'd probably pick one up just for the novelty of it. Just don't delude yourself that Microsoft won't be taking a hit on the hardware if they discount it that heavily.
 
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35mil Kinect sold, yet it lasted like 2 years tops

Actually over 3 years, plus the first 5-6 months of the Xbox one before it was forced to unbundle.

But this time it wouldn't be a peripheral so it could potentially be more successful in a shorter period of time. Especially since 360 Kinect was over $150 with tax at launch.

A successful $99 discless console could sell a range of 20-40 million Xbox One's, PLUS whatever the S and X sell. That would end the gen with some very great sales numbers and tons of momentum for whatever the next console is called, especially the cheaper streaming version, which this arguably is a prototype for.
 
Its still an xbox one s. less powerfull than a base ps4 rite? Would ms want to market this as the least powerfull digital only streaming console ?

I mean it wouldn't have competition unless Sony pulls a counter out of nowhere, so it would be THE ONLY digital streaming console. Excluding whatever Googles plans are, but Google would have to start the game library from scratch and doesn't have a gamepass equal. As for as we know anyway.

At $99 I'd probably pick one up just for the novelty of it. Just don't delude yourself that Microsoft won't be taking a hit on the hardware if they discount it that heavily.

You're assuming they would be taking a hit but that's the thing we have seen streaming devices in the affordable range, so it may end up being cheaper than expected.

The S and the PS4 have been slow on real price drops, and even retailer price cuts aren't that big, a sudden $99 console would shake up the market. Especially if they do it right. If they do it right.
 

Stuart360

Member
Actually over 3 years, plus the first 5-6 months of the Xbox one before it was forced to unbundle.

But this time it wouldn't be a peripheral so it could potentially be more successful in a shorter period of time. Especially since 360 Kinect was over $150 with tax at launch.

A successful $99 discless console could sell a range of 20-40 million Xbox One's, PLUS whatever the S and X sell. That would end the gen with some very great sales numbers and tons of momentum for whatever the next console is called, especially the cheaper streaming version, which this arguably is a prototype for.
Kinect wasn't really supported in the last year or two of 360's life though, and people were against Kinect well before the XB1 even launched, hense why they had to drop it only a few months into XB1's life, as you said yourself.
 

DanielsM

Banned
Don't get me wrong dude, I'm all for a discless Xbox. I don't think I've put a single disc into my X before. I played a few disc-based games (and did some BC with discs) on my S and that was fine - but they started re-releasing digital copies of backwards compatible games that were previous disc-only, like Blue Dragon, and I re-bought them digitally for the convenience of it. For me, the disc drive is a waste and if I could have paid less for my X because I didn't plan on using it, it would have been all the better.

The rumor is that these things are going to MRSP for $249.99 - but I think their DOA if they're any more expensive than $149.99. At $99 I'd probably pick one up just for the novelty of it. Just don't delude yourself that Microsoft won't be taking a hit on the hardware if they discount it that heavily.

Generally agree with you, I'm just not sure the price is the issue but yes, a $150-250 makes very little sense and is DOA.

If they announce a Xbox Two, Xbox One cheap edition, and the ability to play Xbox games on PC officially at E3 or around E3, I'm going under 6m units for 2019, possibly under 5m units and it doesn't matter if they sell it for $99 - its a much bigger issue than just pricing, pricing is only one component of many.
 
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Kinect wasn't really supported in the last year or two of 360's life though,

The last two years of the 360's life would be 2016 and 2015 so yes I would agree on that considering the 360 itself was a dying console and the Xbox One had it's own version.

If you're referring to before the XBox One release that's not right either as Kinect in 2012 sold a bunch and many games came out and MS converted a bunch of studios to make only or support kinect releases, including 2 iirc, TV-based studios. Which continued into 2013 but due to the pre-reveal issues of the Xbox One, and the cancellation of their DRM 24.hr check-in plan kinect for 360 took a hit as well. But that was toward the end of the year. Some of that was off-set by a price drop though, for the individual 360 kinect, and the Kinect console bundles. One of which was close $99 with 4GB slim. Also Xbox One E.
 

Stuart360

Member
The last two years of the 360's life would be 2016 and 2015 so yes I would agree on that considering the 360 itself was a dying console and the Xbox One had it's own version.

If you're referring to before the XBox One release that's not right either as Kinect in 2012 sold a bunch and many games came out and MS converted a bunch of studios to make only or support kinect releases, including 2 iirc, TV-based studios. Which continued into 2013 but due to the pre-reveal issues of the Xbox One, and the cancellation of their DRM 24.hr check-in plan kinect for 360 took a hit as well. But that was toward the end of the year. Some of that was off-set by a price drop though, for the individual 360 kinect, and the Kinect console bundles. One of which was close $99 with 4GB slim. Also Xbox One E.
Well you obviously know your Kinect stuff, so i'll give you that, but i remember a ton of threads on here, and other forums, talking about how they had sold all these millions of Kinects but Microsoft isnt releasing anything for it. This was before the XB1 launched.
 

Jigsaah

Gold Member
Generally agree with you, I'm just not sure the price is the issue but yes, a $150-250 makes very little sense and is DOA.

If they announce a Xbox Two, Xbox One cheap edition, and the ability to play Xbox games on PC officially at E3 or around E3, I'm going under 6m units for 2019, possibly under 5m units and it doesn't matter if they sell it for $99 - its a much bigger issue than just pricing, pricing is only one component of many.

Question is, who is this for? I really hated that argument when it came to the X, but I think it really applies well here.

I wouldn't buy it...I still need to upgrade PS4 to a pro. Also would buy a switch or an upgrade to my processor in my PC before buying this.
 
Well you obviously know your Kinect stuff, so i'll give you that, but i remember a ton of threads on here, and other forums, talking about how they had sold all these millions of Kinects but Microsoft isnt releasing anything for it. This was before the XB1 launched.

Because Microsoft gave up on trying to aim games toward the hardcore and aimed for the casual market exclusively.

The issue you saw on the boards was how either:

A. Kinect can't work for most types of hardcore games.

B. All the hardcore games sucked except, maybe, rise of nightmares, and if it's voice commands were used in a non-kinect game.

So Kinect after a point became mostly dance, party, and casual games, and strange titles like Kinectimals. It's a shame they never had got some devs together to actual put time and polish in a hardcore game. It was obvious that casual market was going to move eventually, but MS never tried to make a safety net for it by getting some hardcore gamers on board. So in order to try and add longevity, they tried to force it with the Xbox One. But they didn't have anything prepared for it thinking the name itself was going to sell Kinect 2.0, they had like 2 retail launch games for nearly a year before Kinect Sports rivals in 2014. Such bad moves killed off the 360 kinect in 2014 as well, just some digital guitar titles are all what it got. Funny enough, that's all Kinect 2.0 got until last year to after 2015.

It's also why the change in strategy caused some major damage to Microsofts First-party studio count.

Question is, who is this for? I really hated that argument when it came to the X, but I think it really applies well here.

I wouldn't buy it...I still need to upgrade PS4 to a pro. Also would buy a switch or an upgrade to my processor in my PC before buying this.

It's for those that want a cheap consoles and still play all the big FP and TP games, at the expense of a disc drive. Plus, Gamepass may also be an added incentive.

I would actually say that despite the X's success, the X made less sense when it was announced, but it ended up turning out well.
 
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Stuart360

Member
Because Microsoft gave up on trying to aim games toward the hardcore and aimed for the casual market exclusively.

The issue you saw on the boards was how either:

A. Kinect can't work for most types of hardcore games.

B. All the hardcore games sucked except, maybe, rise of nightmares, and if it's voice commands were used in a non-kinect game.

So Kinect after a point became mostly dance, party, and casual games, and strange titles like Kinectimals.
It's a shame they never had got some devs together to actual put time and polish in a hardcore game. It was obvious that casual market was going to move eventually, but MS never tried to make a safety net for it by getting some hardcore gamers on board.

It's also why the change in strategy caused some major damage to Microsofts First-party studio count.
Exactly, and thats why Kinect sucked.
 

DanielsM

Banned
Question is, who is this for? I really hated that argument when it came to the X, but I think it really applies well here.

I wouldn't buy it...I still need to upgrade PS4 to a pro. Also would buy a switch or an upgrade to my processor in my PC before buying this.

Yes, I think from a business perspective its a difficult sell. The Xbox isn't selling because it cost too much, obviously people are buying the competitors. I'm with you, you either wanted a Xbox or you don't before, very similar to what they did with Lumia (Windows Phone) about 3 years ago, they went cheap $150-250, than dumped those on the market for sub $80, I bought a brand new Lumia 640 for $29.99. It didn't help them because the masses were already committed and price is only one component.

I mean we all know they want you to buy digitally, so they knock some off the price and this gets you locked in. The rumor if I remember correctly is it would be sold online only, but even Google sells their $30 chromecast at retails.
https://venturebeat.com/2017/10/04/...-chromecasts-up-from-30-million-in-july-2016/

Should be interesting to watch, I'm expecting a ton of Xbox stuff between now and end of E3. Maybe they will put a cheap one out there and it will sell, but they could have sold the S or the original for very cheap long ago if they wanted to but not upgrading it and keeping the lower tier one. This all seems kind of late to the party, if it was just a redesigned slim situation I guess no harm, just not getting the overall strategy - seems like they need to pull the bandaid off in one take with cloud gaming. They are trying to play the middle of the road, and grapes get crushed in the middle of the road.
 
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EverydayBeast

thinks Halo Infinite is a new graphical benchmark
I’ll do the OP one better, $59.99 if M$ is desperate enough they better consider that price point.
 
Yes, I think from a business perspective its a difficult sell. The Xbox isn't selling because it cost too much, obviously people are buying the competitors. I'm with you, you either wanted a Xbox or you don't before, very similar to what they did with Lumia (Windows Phone) about 3 years ago, they went cheap $150-250, than dumped those on the market for sub $80, I bought a brand new Lumia 640 for $29.99. It didn't help them because the masses were already committed and price is only one component.
.

I don't get your Lumia Comparison, the 640 was the low-end model that was $150 for new ATT customers with discount, and was $100 by the holidays. A year later it was dropped to $29,99 at wal-mart and Best Buy (for prepaid ATT units btw) because of the 650, which was a better reviewed more premium device that was less than $200.

Similar price cut was done from 635 to 640, had nothing to do with trying to convince to buy it, especially since it sold well. (not as well as the 520 series however)

A better example here would be the Essential Phone from 17 or the Razor Phone 2 which already cut the price from $799 to $499.
 

Jigsaah

Gold Member
Yes, I think from a business perspective its a difficult sell. The Xbox isn't selling because it cost too much, obviously people are buying the competitors. I'm with you, you either wanted a Xbox or you don't before, very similar to what they did with Lumia (Windows Phone) about 3 years ago, they went cheap $150-250, than dumped those on the market for sub $80, I bought a brand new Lumia 640 for $29.99. It didn't help them because the masses were already committed and price is only one component.

I mean we all know they want you to buy digitally, so they knock some off the price and this gets you locked in. The rumor if I remember correctly is it would be sold online only, but even Google sells their $30 chromecast at retails.
https://venturebeat.com/2017/10/04/...-chromecasts-up-from-30-million-in-july-2016/

Should be interesting to watch, I'm expecting a ton of Xbox stuff between now and end of E3. Maybe they will put a cheap one out there and it will sell, but they could have sold the S or the original for very cheap long ago if they wanted to but not upgrading it and keeping the lower tier one. This all seems kind of late to the party, if it was just a redesigned slim situation I guess no harm, just not getting the overall strategy - seems like they need to pull the bandaid off in one take with cloud gaming. They are trying to play the middle of the road, and grapes get crushed in the middle of the road.

I mean, I guess there what, like a year, yeah and a half til next gen drops. Maybe this is a final push for those PS4 owners to get an xbox cheap in order to try out........wait........SHIT...

Gamepass. They are trying to use this to get more people on Gamepass! That's who this is for. Cheap entry plus access to 200+ games. I mean if I didn't have an xbox already but was considering one and didn't wanna buy any games...I'd just pick up this lil rinky dink box and get game pass.

That being said, still think $249 would be too expensive. It needs to be $149 and include 3 months of gamepass and xbox live.
 

Iced Arcade

Member
A $99 console would be a giant hit... but i doubt it would happen.

Btw people seem to think its only subtracting the blu ray drive BUT it also eliminates patient payments as well.
 

Three

Member
I mean it wouldn't have competition unless Sony pulls a counter out of nowhere, so it would be THE ONLY digital streaming console. Excluding whatever Googles plans are, but Google would have to start the game library from scratch and doesn't have a gamepass equal. As for as we know anyway.

You're assuming they would be taking a hit but that's the thing we have seen streaming devices in the affordable range, so it may end up being cheaper than expected.

If it's streaming only then it is dead. PS TV was a cheap sub $99 streaming box but did not set the world on fire. Also have you heard of something called nVidia Shield TV and Geforce Now? You can buy it now and it's a product that currently exists.

Your idea that it would be the only digital streaming console is truly misguided.
 

Stuart360

Member
If it's streaming only then it is dead. PS TV was a cheap sub $99 streaming box but did not set the world on fire. Also have you heard of something called nVidia Shield TV and Geforce Now? You can buy it now and it's a product that currently exists.

Your idea that it would be the only digital streaming console is truly misguided.
And didnt Nvidia recently come out and say they are dropping streaming?, i'm sure i read that somewhere. I dont think the world is ready yet, or even wants streaming yet.
 

cryptoadam

Banned
Sure it would be tempting but its all about the games.

Sony has the mindshare, and Nintendo has the 1st party and portability.

After the initial surge, it will die down and people will return to what they have been buying, mainly PS4's and Switchs.

Also with next gen being rumored a 99$ Xbox will get lost in the PS5 and XBOX 2 hype.
 

demigod

Member
A successful $99 discless console could sell a range of 20-40 million Xbox One's, PLUS whatever the S and X sell. That would end the gen with some very great sales numbers and tons of momentum for whatever the next console is called, especially the cheaper streaming version, which this arguably is a prototype for.

How much is MS paying you? I'd like in on it.
 

Allandor

Member
Well, $99 would really be a killer price, but not possible.
I know, currently a used xbo s won't sell for much more than $100 (tried to sell mine "old" s (also have an x) but I kept it because only 80€ were offered, for that money I kept it). But with production, a controller etc I don't think you will get it down there.
Well maybe subsidized because of the online store and therefore no used games (-> more money for MS), but even than this would be a big bet. The BR drive won't save 100 bucks. Maybe 50 if you calculate with the drive, less licensing fees, a smaler case, a bit less power-consumption (therefore a bit less electronics to power the drive), … but after all it is not that much.
7nm would reduce the power consumption even more and could lead to a much smaller device, cooler, power-unit, … but 7nm is currently not really cost-effective. Maybe something like the "12nm" amd used for their ryzen processors and rx590 gpus. This would not need much more effort, is quite cost-effective.
The funny thing is, it should be cheaper for MS to get such device running with DDR4 than with DDR3, because there are much bigger DDR4 capacities. This would also reduce power-consumption a bit. But than this s-device would be again just a bit faster than the older "s" device. But I don't thing that would be a big problem overall, as the s is already faster than the original xbo but the difference is quite small.
 

HeresJohnny

Member
It needs to be $99 seeing as it's releasing at the end of the generation and the user will get very limited use out of it. That and the whole butt-screwing of not actually owning any content if you step away from the Xbox ecosystem.
 

Grinchy

Banned
I don't believe for a second that the disc drive costs MS $100 per unit. And I also don't believe that "unnecessary optional ports" cost them $25 per unit. These are asinine assumptions.

Getting past that, I suppose MS could theoretically put this out at a $99 price and just take a financial hit with the idea that Live, Gamepass, and digital sales will make up for it and continue on to a profit. I just don't really see that working out very well either since we are at the end of this generation.

Doing that at the beginning of a generation would be profitable in the long run, but how many people will realistically pick up a Xbox One at the end of the gen and pay for those 3 things to a large enough degree to overcome the financial hit from making the system $99? I guess I just don't see it working.
 

DiscoJer

Member
The thing is, why would people want a $99 Xbox? The X at least offers the best console graphics. But the regular Xbox basically has a worse game selection than the PS4 and worse graphics

At Black Friday, our stole sold out of the PS4 Spiderman bundle basically immediately. OTOH, I was the only one that bought the Xbox S Horizon 4 bundle. Okay, it was $220, not $200, but still, 1 vs 100s of sales.
 

HeresJohnny

Member
The thing is, why would people want a $99 Xbox? The X at least offers the best console graphics. But the regular Xbox basically has a worse game selection than the PS4 and worse graphics

At Black Friday, our stole sold out of the PS4 Spiderman bundle basically immediately. OTOH, I was the only one that bought the Xbox S Horizon 4 bundle. Okay, it was $220, not $200, but still, 1 vs 100s of sales.

There is a huge market of people who don't buy in until a system hits sub-$129 price.
 

Three

Member
And didnt Nvidia recently come out and say they are dropping streaming?, i'm sure i read that somewhere. I dont think the world is ready yet, or even wants streaming yet.
Sony removed it from everything not a PC or PS4 but I think nVidia have only just begun and still support it.
 

jshackles

Gentlemen, we can rebuild it. We have the capability to make the world's first enhanced store. Steam will be that store. Better than it was before.
The thing is, why would people want a $99 Xbox? The X at least offers the best console graphics. But the regular Xbox basically has a worse game selection than the PS4 and worse graphics

At Black Friday, our stole sold out of the PS4 Spiderman bundle basically immediately. OTOH, I was the only one that bought the Xbox S Horizon 4 bundle. Okay, it was $220, not $200, but still, 1 vs 100s of sales.

If this thing ends up releasing for $99, the Black Friday prices will be insane. $50? $100 but with a $50 Xbox Credit? $100 with a new (normally $60) digital game? Positioned this holiday against a lineup choice of this or a $200 PS4 base system and I bet it'll flip the tables over last year's performance.
 
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Vawn

Banned
What if Sony releases a new PS4 Slim for $9.99? Wouldn't that be neat? Should I make a new poll?
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
There is no way a discless Xbox One OG comes out for $100.

And besides, even if it did who is the targeted audience? Digital only gamers who want to play the worst port?
 

leo-j

Member
Even if they sell 20-40 million Xbox one consoles on top of the 41 million sold so far, that’s still tens of millions less than the ps4. So how is the gen going to be over if they did that based on your guesstimated sales for the future?
 
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