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[PSYGN]

Considering a lot of the junk Disney has been putting out lately, it'll be at least a decade before they can even come close to sniffin Netflix's ass. Which coincides with their "estimated" subscriber numbers being completely in check with reality when they announced it.

The thing about Disney+ is most people have looked at it as a secondary service at best. Not an actual replacement of Netflix. Netflix has the advantage of dozens of networks/companies wanting their shows/movies on it (even when Netflix is trying to expand original content). Their un-original movie/show content is the greatest it's ever been. Plus they have tons of great original content (for every type of person). Disney has a target audience which only makes up for a small percentage of Netflix users & the type of shows/movies they watch.

Regarding Hulu, it's a joke in content compared to Netflix. Even if they combined Hulu into Disney+ (which they won't for financial reasons & separation), it still wouldn't make a difference. Unless Disney starts adding thousands & thousands of non-disney owned content so every person can enjoy it like Netflix, they won't ever compete/replace Netflix as the "main" service. I'm sure Disney+ will be a good service, but they'll just be another service add-on to coexist with Netflix. Netflix is the household name for streaming.

I think you underestimate how fast things can change now. People can just go and unsubscribe with one button under no contract. Disney+ as a "secondary service" is because Netflix came first and is a household name, but household in the way DVD can be for a period of time. Often you'll find it goes like this: Disruptor does the heavy lifting -> People adopt -> Big company has no infrastructure for their own so they end up sleeping with disruptor as the tides turn -> Either big company buys or invests in disruptor, or when the market trend and infrastructure is clear enough they pave their own path to regain complete control over their content. You think these OG companies liked Netflix? Actually, the OG companies that have enough content like Disney are probably happier off now. No middleman fees with cable companies aside from hosting content, direct engagement with audience.

The last bit was not directed at you, btw. And DVD did last a good while... but my point being in this age of one click subscribe/unsubscribe without having to jump through hoops and it being Disney (which continues to expand), I can see them catching up or passing a lot sooner than 10 years.

 

[bitbydeath]

I think you underestimate how fast things can change now. People can just go and unsubscribe with one button under no contract. Disney+ as a "secondary service" is because Netflix came first and is a household name, but household in the way DVD can be for a period of time. Often you'll find it goes like this: Disruptor does the heavy lifting -> People adopt -> Big company has no infrastructure for their own so they end up sleeping with disruptor as the tides turn -> Either big company buys or invests in disruptor, or when the market trend and infrastructure is clear enough they pave their own path to regain complete control over their content. You think these OG companies liked Netflix? Actually, the OG companies that have enough content like Disney are probably happier off now. No middleman fees with cable companies aside from hosting content, direct engagement with audience.

The last bit was not directed at you, btw. And DVD did last a good while... but my point being in this age of one click subscribe/unsubscribe without having to jump through hoops and it being Disney (which continues to expand), I can see them catching up or passing a lot sooner than 10 years.

Disney aren’t propositioning their streaming service as a primary service.

It’s a service you sign up for when there’s new content you want to watch but they aren’t intending on combatting Netflix content levels to keep people subscribed for long periods of time.

 

[ZehDon]

Disney have most of their fan base tied up in just one or two properties. Star Wars and Marvel chief amongst them. That’s not going to drive adoption. And they’re certainly not going to cut the legs off of Avengers at the cinema by releasing it on their service the same day. They can cannibalise home sales for a while, such as not releasing movies on physical media, but this is a stop gap solution until the market equalises out. Their acquisition of Fox is far more potent than anything directly created by Disney - it’s a hell of a back catalogue.

However, nothing here demonstrates to me that Netflix is worried or should be worried. Under cutting the price of Netflix just relegates then to “secondary” service position, and the corporate ego of Disney won’t stomach that for long. Especially if they’re looking to outright replace the home sales AND cable market profits of old. $7 a month won’t cut it. Instead, I see Disney leaning into a “premium service” label after launch and the initial wave of people have signed up. And once they’re more expensive than everyone else, people will just pirate again.

They’ll certainly muscle out a space for themselves, but they’re not killing Netflix in 175 days.

 

[TrainedRage]

….forgive me if I don't cancel my subscription right away. *skeptic*

 

[Eotheod]

Point me to what Disney has of interest in similar vein to Big Mouth, Black Mirror, Santa Clarita Diet, Umbrella Academy and Neo Yokio (I totally am being serious, toblerone serious). Disney suffer from the fact all their interesting IPs are tied up in cinema deals, and until the turnaround from cinema to home release is shortened substantially I am not going to subscribe to a Disney channel that has re-runs of Family Guy and barely legal teens dressing in skimpy outfits singing to some stupid pop song.

None of what Disney has holds a candle to Netflix's quality or hell even some of the other streaming services.

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

It’ll suck to see the Disney content go on Netfli (it’s always nice to know it’s there I guess), but I can honestly say I have not watched a single Disney piece of content for at least a year on Netflix. I’ve usually already seen the stuff I want to watch in theatres by the time it’s hit Netflix.

 

[CyberPanda]

RIP Netflix.

 

[xrnzaaas]

I fucking hate the splintering of streaming services. Gotta pay for Netflix to watch the movies I want to, and then a different one to get kids Disney and Nickelodeon stuff. Costs too much money

The great thing about streaming services is that you can pay only for how long you want to. I rotate between Amazon and HBO GO almost every month. That's assuming you can wait a month and don't want to watch every single new show or movie exactly when it releases.

 

[LordPezix]

Isn't MCU over now that endgame is out? A lot of people I've talked to have zero interest in seeing the any new MCU content. We spent 11 years of our lives building up to Endgame. I'd say people are ready for a break. On top of that Star Wars isn't exactly well received right now.

I am sure Disney+ will do well on its own but given that most of its content is very mild, viewers looking for more mature and serious content will probably remain faithful to other outlets.

 

[Brizzady]

Forbes contributors keep being morons. Netflix isn't scared of Disney. Netflix has a wider range of content than Disney will ever offer. Netflix does have to step up their movie game though.

 

[Stitch]

Isn't MCU over now that endgame is out?

Phase 3 ends with Spider-Man: Far From Home and they already have plans for Phase 4 so no, it's not over. It's never over. They also have plans for several MCU shows on Disney+..

 

[megamerican]

This is a new level of stupid even for Forbes.

 

[Starlight Lotice]

We have Netflix and Amazon Prime Video but I don't get why some content is behind a paywall on PV but not Netflix.

Disney+ sounds like the Disney channels combined and made cheaper.

 

[Tapioca]

This article is an ad for Disney.

 

[Susurrus]

Is Disney going to be global like Netflix & if so with roaming accounts (can use the same account when you cross a border) or am I gotta get fucked when I leave my home country like w/ most services?

 

[Chairman Tickles]

I fucking hate the splintering of streaming services. Gotta pay for Netflix to watch the movies I want to, and then a different one to get kids Disney and Nickelodeon stuff. Costs too much money

Which is why torrents are making an epic comeback. It has become too easy to download entire seasons.

 

[Gun Animal]

Honestly for a good while Disney+ will likely help Netflix. At the current price for most people it will be an add-on to Netflix rather than supplanting it, and will make cord cutting a more viable option. When Disney inevitably starts upping their fee things may become more difficult, but for the forseeable future Netflix will be fine. The vast range of 'crap' content is I think Netflix's biggest strength, they have something for everyone, and have enough content that there is always something to watch for pretty much everyone, they don't need the prestige 'must-see' shows as much anymore because they are the go to background show service.

this is correct, Netflix/Disney+ combo will be the PS4/Switch of streaming services.

Isn't MCU over now that endgame is out? A lot of people I've talked to have zero interest in seeing the any new MCU content. We spent 11 years of our lives building up to Endgame. I'd say people are ready for a break. On top of that Star Wars isn't exactly well received right now.

I am sure Disney+ will do well on its own but given that most of its content is very mild, viewers looking for more mature and serious content will probably remain faithful to other outlets.

So many people bought into this narrative that endgame was built up for "11 years" Not the case at all. The first five movies were building up to the Avengers, which included a brief Thanos cameo because Whedon was a fan of the character. They didn't even know that they were doing Thanos or the infinity stones as the metastory until Thor: The Dark World. That's 6-7 years. But the narrative that the entire mcu was leading up to Endgame helped build hype and ticket sales, and I'm sure when The New Avengers: Secret Wars comes out in six odd years they'll say "the MCU has been building up to this for 17 years!"

Disney won't stop making content in the MCU until it stops making money, probably around the next time society collapses. That's not necessarily a bad thing as long as we get a few great films out of it here and there.

 

[KonradLaw]

Maybe you haven't kept up with current events, but Disney+ is going to have a massive amount of new original MCU and Star Wars content.

Massive? Lol..few shows here and there. Come on. Disney has enormous library of past content and movies, but it will have fraction of original shows Netflix has, at least at launch.

 

[Liftplus]

Netflix is not in any danger atm, its the same situation as Steam vs Epic.

 

[mcjmetroid]

I wouldn't underestimate Netflix at all in this one.

Not everyone is interested in Disney movies and shows even if some of them are Marvel etc.

Netflix fills that gap for people who want realistic movies and TV shows and not fantasy ones if you get me.
Unless Disney broaden their media range this will be the case. Disney currently aren't making anything like "Dead to me" or "Birdbox" which are and were extremely popular. Movies that I can watch with my parents.
Being honest I wouldn't have called their app the "disney +". Disney have a brand name but it's also associated as being for kids.

That being said I'd get Disney purely because they announced an app for the Switch. That's extremely convenient for me and Netflix should really get on this.

 

[lock2k]

I use Netflix and Prime and for Disney shit I use Kodi. lol

 

[PennywisetheDancingClown]

I can't wait until it all crashes. All of the splintering is creating far too many streaming services, and it's going to become a huge pain in the ass for a lot of people.

I only plan to subscribe to Netflix, but I almost watch TV more than it anyways.

 

[DetectiveBananas]

Not gonna feel bad for Netflix if they go under. Most of their original programming is shit (Outside of Stranger Things and Mind Hunters), and they had a leg up on the rest of the competition for years but now everyone else caught on.
Every Corporation’s Dream is to sell you something you never actually own and you pay a subscription fee. Now Disney and Company want their bigger piece of the pie.

 

[haxan7]

I can't wait until it all crashes. All of the splintering is creating far too many streaming services, and it's going to become a huge pain in the ass for a lot of people.

I only plan to subscribe to Netflix, but I almost watch TV more than it anyways.

I’m feeling a similar way. On the current trajectory, we’re all going to be spending $100+ a month for all our streaming services in the next decade. Soon it won’t be any different from the cable/satellite model where you have the basic package that gets you a decent amount of content with ads, and then depending what you want you pay extra for your premium channels, your sports, your porn, etc.

Really is depressing to think about it.

 

[PennywisetheDancingClown]

I’m feeling a similar way. On the current trajectory, we’re all going to be spending $100+ a month for all our streaming services in the next decade. Soon it won’t be any different from the cable/satellite model where you have the basic package that gets you a decent amount of content with ads, and then depending what you want you pay extra for your premium channels, your sports, your porn, etc.

Really is depressing to think about it.

EXACTLY! And streaming doesn't offer sports, or most new network TV shows anyways. I prefer network TV to the Netflix originals I've watched, but I do have several of the bigger ones left to get to.

 

[Bullet Club]

Netflix stock drops more than 10% as earnings show huge decline in new subscribers

Netflix Inc. shares plunged more than 10% in the extended session Wednesday after the video-streaming giant badly missed projections for new paid subscriptions.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[ZehDon]

...Netflix attracts 2.7 million new paying customers, almost half its forecast and nearly one-third the previous quarter’s additions...

So they still added 2.7 million new subscribers. Growth is slowing, sure, however exponential growth is unsustainable.

 

[dextran]

EXACTLY! And streaming doesn't offer sports, or most new network TV shows anyways. I prefer network TV to the Netflix originals I've watched, but I do have several of the bigger ones left to get to.

Here in Australia we have Kayo which is streaming for sports. I watch F1, La Liga, AFL - all the sports I care about. The local channels have their own on-demand apps that give me recent shows. Although it's true it all adds up - still prefer it to the old paradigm.

 

[Kagey K]

My cable company recently started paying for Netflix Premium for me as part of our package, so they bought themselves some extra time.

But we were unsubscribed for the 4 months prior and didn’t miss it.

They need to do better.

 

[iconmaster]

I think the recent price hike motivated quite a few subscribers to reevaluate the value of the service. Add in the fact of content disappearing from Netflix, and the imbalance between customers’ perception of the service’s value and Netflix‘ own estimation of it becomes acute.

 

[manfestival]

I had netflix free for 2 years and I have hulu free for a year + now. hulu is trash but at least its free lol. Disney owns them too and I am sure disney plus is going to modeled after hulu since the monetization is pretty rabid in that system

 

[gatti-man]

Disney have most of their fan base tied up in just one or two properties. Star Wars and Marvel chief amongst them. That’s not going to drive adoption. And they’re certainly not going to cut the legs off of Avengers at the cinema by releasing it on their service the same day. They can cannibalise home sales for a while, such as not releasing movies on physical media, but this is a stop gap solution until the market equalises out. Their acquisition of Fox is far more potent than anything directly created by Disney - it’s a hell of a back catalogue.

However, nothing here demonstrates to me that Netflix is worried or should be worried. Under cutting the price of Netflix just relegates then to “secondary” service position, and the corporate ego of Disney won’t stomach that for long. Especially if they’re looking to outright replace the home sales AND cable market profits of old. $7 a month won’t cut it. Instead, I see Disney leaning into a “premium service” label after launch and the initial wave of people have signed up. And once they’re more expensive than everyone else, people will just pirate again.

They’ll certainly muscle out a space for themselves, but they’re not killing Netflix in 175 days.

They don’t have to muscle Netflix out. A 20% reduction in subs would kill Netflix on its own. Netflix made a huge bet that their debt would be covered by increasing subs. If Disney stops that Netflix dies.

Netflix needs to be a roaring success just to stay alive.

I think the recent price hike motivated quite a few subscribers to reevaluate the value of the service. Add in the fact of content disappearing from Netflix, and the imbalance between customers’ perception of the service’s value and Netflix‘ own estimation of it becomes acute.

Netflix has a lot of content but average quality is pretty damn low. Meaning most of it won’t appeal to people unless they already like the genre of the content. Netflix has a huge quality problem jmho

So they still added 2.7 million new subscribers. Growth is slowing, sure, however exponential growth is unsustainable.

They need far more to cover their costs that’s why the stock dropped.

 

[apocaliptic]

I had Netflix since the beggining, and a year ago I canceled it. The main reason was the quality of Netflix owned content. Could not get past that. They have a very big problem with the low quality of their originals which in my opinion will be their doom.

 

[demigod]

I had netflix free for 2 years and I have hulu free for a year + now. hulu is trash but at least its free lol. Disney owns them too and I am sure disney plus is going to modeled after hulu since the monetization is pretty rabid in that system

Thanks for reminding me, I just canceled my Hulu sub. It's trash even though i'm paying 99cents.

 

[manfestival]

Thanks for reminding me, I just canceled my Hulu sub. It's trash even though i'm paying 99cents.

Yeah I get it free and I barely use it.

 

[Panda1]

I fucking hate the splintering of streaming services. Gotta pay for Netflix to watch the movies I want to, and then a different one to get kids Disney and Nickelodeon stuff. Costs too much money

compared to what ? you cant afford $20 month? Im sure you double dip and buy DLC for games etc...give me abreak - everyone wants everything for nothing. Go to the public library and you can loan as many dvds and books as you want .

 

[A.Romero]

Netflix is not going anywhere. Just as it has always happened: some people will pay for the services they want, most people will settle for their favorite.

A lot of people don't realize the difficulty of offering a technically sound streaming service. Netflix has the best codecs and the best user experience. Others haven't been able to even come close to that.

Also, the worldwide market is dominated by Netflix because they were the ones that bet on it first. There is a lot of regionalized content that is very appreciated by their respective regions.

They have something for everyone.

I've been a Netflix subscriber since the moment they launched in Mexico and I can't see myself cancelling or switching. I cancelled HBO Go because their platform is an insult to consumers. The only reason I got prime is that it comes with the free shipping from Amazon if it wasn't for that I'd probably have a couple of months a year only. I suspect it would be the same with Disney+.

 

[pramod]

I cancelled Netflix 6 years ago and have never missed it. But then again I hardly watch any TV these days.

 

[TheShadowLord]

I have my own home media server but that's too bad. / no sarcasm

 

[GoodIdeaBadIdea]

I think most people just watch the Disney movies in the theaters. I don't really see them taking Netflix off of it's throne yet. To be honest I think it would be better to just go buy the movies instead of going with Disney+ I mean really I only watch like 1 movie a month anyways and then I'd own it forever if I just buy it.

 

[Nymphae]

Netflix has the best codecs and the best user experience

Which is weird, I still consider their user experience abysmal. There's almost nothing positive I can think of to say about the UI or how everything works in general.

And I'm still shocked that they haven't implemented a shuffle play, or random play feature. This would help keep people in the ecosystem, and help remove the problem of trying to find something to watch. Remember channel surfing and just leaving it on something that looked mildly interesting? Does anyone do this anymore? I've spent so much time in the past agonizing over which shitty netflix offering to turn on, and often times literally ended those searches by putting on a game or doing something else. Put in a way for me to say, randomly watch a horror movie, or comedy, or whatever filter I want.

 

[A.Romero]

Which is weird, I still consider their user experience abysmal. There's almost nothing positive I can think of to say about the UI or how everything works in general.

And I'm still shocked that they haven't implemented a shuffle play, or random play feature. This would help keep people in the ecosystem, and help remove the problem of trying to find something to watch. Remember channel surfing and just leaving it on something that looked mildly interesting? Does anyone do this anymore? I've spent so much time in the past agonizing over which shitty netflix offering to turn on, and often times literally ended those searches by putting on a game or doing something else. Put in a way for me to say, randomly watch a horror movie, or comedy, or whatever filter I want.

It's true. However they just need to be better than the competition (IMO they are).

 

[Nymphae]

It's true. However they just need to be better than the competition (IMO they are).

Perhaps in some ways, I don't have a lot of experience with streaming services, but I find AmazonPrime slightly better in terms of UI (and content that appeals to me.)

I absolutely hate the Netflix UI on PC which is where I use it if I ever do. You constantly have to keep your pointer off of the thumbnails or they will expand, hiding the other things you're trying to look at, it's incredibly frustrating. Not to mention they make it very hard for me to find things by year, whereas on Amazon the release date is listed next to the movie title so it's a lot easier for me to find things I want.

 

[A.Romero]

Perhaps in some ways, I don't have a lot of experience with streaming services, but I find AmazonPrime slightly better in terms of UI (and content that appeals to me.)

I absolutely hate the Netflix UI on PC which is where I use it if I ever do. You constantly have to keep your pointer off of the thumbnails or they will expand, hiding the other things you're trying to look at, it's incredibly frustrating. Not to mention they make it very hard for me to find things by year, whereas on Amazon the release date is listed next to the movie title so it's a lot easier for me to find things I want.

TBH I'm not that familiar on PC. I mostly use Shield TV and integrated apps (Samsung Taizen). They are probably not updated at the same rate.

 

[Nymphae]

Amazon Prime actually recommends me useful stuff too, I can't remember the last time Netflix recommended me something that made any sense, they are constantly pushing their originals.

I've watched a few 80's & 90's movies in the past week or so, and I just went to the AP Video homepage, and got these recommendations, I added every single one to my list: Single White Female (92), Sleepwalkers (98), Kingpin (96), The Crow (94), Airplane (80)....like these recommendations actually make sense based on what I've been watching.

 

[KorbinDallas]

Isn't this why Netflix started to create their own content? I'm not sure if that will be enough, but they did have a Disney deal some 5-6 years ago to stream much of their content. Shortly after, they started to produce their own, then lost the Disney catalog. Seems though long-term that may not be sustainable.

 

[Sorcerer]

How long before Disney gradually raises their subscription fees until they reach Netflix's current fee? No way they keep it at $6.99.

 

[H4ze]

Looks like it's time to buy some Netflix shares.

 

[Xaero Gravity]

How long before Disney gradually raises their subscription fees until they reach Netflix's current fee? No way they keep it at $6.99.

Disney has a substantial advantage early on in that it's main content is all based on properties they own, thus they don't have to pay out as many licensing fees. So I can see them sticking with this price point for a decent amount of time.

 

[SLoWMoTIoN]

175 days have passed. Is Netflix dead guys?