OmegaSupreme
advanced basic bitch
Not suprising based on the difference in population
Edit: beaten. And what he said lol
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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check
- Thread starter keraj37
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Edit: beaten. And what he said lol
Phunkydiabetic
Banned
Don't be obtuse. The reactions to the virus are what has caused the economic and societal impact. If there was no covid-19 these issues wouldn't be happening. It would be business as usual.
betrayal
Banned
I think it's human nature.
Everybody knows the feeling when he is ill, especially when you are seriously ill, that in this moment you realize that health is the most important thing in life. Things like the job or other problems just don't interest you that much anymore.
Of course, everyone can talk easily now, as long as hardly anyone is affected. Things would change very quickly if 10-15% of those who are ill actually had to be hospitalized. Things like the economy, money and jobs would then very quickly fall behind in personal importance. What I mean to say is that when you are well, your priorities are quite different compared to when your health is poor.
crowbrow
Banned
https://www.poemuseum.org/the-masque-of-the-red-death
Beautiful and haunting Edgar Allan Poe's tale about a pandemic and how the elites abandon the common folk to their fates and seek desperately but pointlessly to escape it.
I guess like all good art, it's as contemporary and relevant today as ever.
Beautiful and haunting Edgar Allan Poe's tale about a pandemic and how the elites abandon the common folk to their fates and seek desperately but pointlessly to escape it.
I guess like all good art, it's as contemporary and relevant today as ever.
Sakura
Member
If anything I would attribute it to the virus circulating longer in Italian parts of Switzerland than German parts (right next to Italy after all and same language). Same with French. It takes time for people to actually die from the virus, so deaths play a kind of catch-up with case counts.
For example, look at Germany.
Case fatality rate
13th 0.22%
20th 0.34%
Today 0.58%
It's going to keep going up, just like South Korea.
Jtibh
Banned
And so we have.
Confetti, all around!
Coronavirus timeline:
- January 19: 100 cases
- January 24: 1,000 cases
- January 31: 10,000 cases
- February 12: 50,000 cases
- March 6: 100,000 cases
- March 18: 200,000 cases
- March 21: 300,000 cases
- March 24: 400,000 cases
- March 26: 500,000 cases
Soon a 100k per day
Though we are already there if we include true numbers from iran and such
flibbertyjibbert
Banned
the virus is a mild cough.
if the government took all your rights and blamed it on a pebble, that doesn't mean the pebble caused it
Captain Zyrain
Member
We're still dealing with a 4.4% CFR even after all these other countries are reporting in. I do expect there are more cases than ever unreported, but that CFR is staying pretty constant.
flibbertyjibbert
Banned
letting some people get a sore throat >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> crashing the economy with no survivors
night. and. day.
Phunkydiabetic
Banned
Imagine living such a free and privileged life that being told you should stay home and self isolate is akin to being "enslaved". We are in the middle of the worst pandemic the world has seen in over a century, but God forbid someone tells electoral demon to stay home folks. Muh freedoms!
flibbertyjibbert
Banned
we're being told we can't work, meet up with anyone or go outside
it's house arrest for an entire country
edit: lol at "muh freedoms". god what kind of idiot would value having freedom right. no wonder you've got angela merkel in your avatar
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ricardo_sousa11
Member
You also have it in the rest of Europe and the death toll is much much higher. This is however, a good exercise between the US private system and the public system in EU.
Insane Metal
Member
300,000 cases in 8 days. Holy shit. This thing is out of control.
Phunkydiabetic
Banned
A mild cough eh. Go walk into any major hospital in Italy struggling with an overwhelming amount of people needing intensive care and tell everyone to just chill bro, it is just a mild cough.
Phunkydiabetic
Banned
Settle down pussy, it's just a "mild cough". Haven't you heard?
E-Cat
Member
"Sore throat", "mild cough"... you're an idiot. Your whole argument is based on an erroneous characterization of the severity of the infection for a sizeable chunk of the population.
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flibbertyjibbert
Banned
vast majority of cases are mild or no symptoms
1-5% of old people riddled with pre-existing cancer may or may not die, depending on how the very incomplete statistics are interpreted
QUICK BURN THE CONSTITUTION
edit: and there's no need for name-calling. reported
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crowbrow
Banned
E-Cat
Member
I was not name-calling, but making a judgement of your intelligence. Call it what you want
15-20% of people get severe symptoms, whether they die or not. Many of them may incur lasting lung damage, we don't know. Even the "mild symptoms" may include anything up to bilateral interstitial pneumonia. Have you ever had that? It's not pleasant.
Sakura
Member
Just a sore throat? Shit, now it ain't even the flu any more.
Leyasu
Banned
Probably due to the cultures of hand-shaking and kissing each other hello is more prevalent in those areas. Thus the chances of receiving a higher virus load at the beginning? Just a thought.
Jooxed
Gold Member
There is also no reason to downplay 22,000 lives lost so far. Some younger than us.
Today 100.000 in 1 day.
Jtibh
Banned
How did we go from 2 to4.4
Consistent for now but i see an increase to 6 soon.
If hospitals cant handle the influx of new patients a lot of them wont get the treatment they need to survive.
betrayal
Banned
10-15% have to be admitted to hospital, which in turn limits the capacity of some hospitals. This isn't even about death rates.
Triage has already been done in some hospitals, which means that the hospital staff determines who is ventilated and who is not and therefore possibly dies. This is a fact. Period.
If you want that scenario in almost every hospital, you don't do a complete lockdown. It doesn't take much intelligence to realize that this would lead to extreme friction between the population and the politicians.
Honestly, I don't want to offend anyone, but anyone who does not recognize these clearly demonstrable and comprehensible connections and considers the current measures to be over-the-top is a complete idiot.
Rock And Roll
Member
I'm sure you'll change your tune if you catch a nasty case of it and end up in the hospital.
Melon
Banned
Spineless, much? Idiot is one of the tamer words people have used here. People are gonna get mad, understandably so, when you are downplaying people dying.
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Leyasu
Banned
It is only for a bit though. Apparently only 20% of cases need ICU with a roughly 3% mortality rate. But if you have 20% of 10 million all at the same time, then it is almost certain that the ICUs nationwide will be swamped, and the mortality rate rises from 3% to say 10%. I thought that this was known?
How would you feel if your parents or immediate family needed ICU, but there wasn't any places or equipment to give them the care that they needed?
Elektro Demon
Banned
Yeah, keep believing what the media is telling you blindlessly withouth questioning anything. Be an obedient little fella and believe in everything you see on the news.
I'm not saying you're wrong and that I'm right. Questioning things is healthy. Being mindlessly obedient and believing everything there's on the news isn't.
betrayal
Banned
That was totally expectable and projected a thousand times. I'm not sure that now you have to wonder every day again about developments that were obvious.
Alebrije
Member
Sugarmonkey
Member
Pure conjecture here: I've been thinking a lot about how our president is handling this and I understand that he is trying to keep panic down although I'm not sure he's doing it to save lives but to help the economy.
My thought is that him going on camera saying that he hopes to have any ban lifted by Easter is going to bite him in the ass big time. It seems like that was directed at southern states and states that have a high go-to-church population. These also seem to be the states that have not even begun to or have barely started testing. Also in poorer states that seem to favor Trump more they have a population that doesn't travel as much. I have a feeling that the states will start to get hit really hard right around the time that Easter is to take place as the virus starts to reach them.
Thoughts?
My thought is that him going on camera saying that he hopes to have any ban lifted by Easter is going to bite him in the ass big time. It seems like that was directed at southern states and states that have a high go-to-church population. These also seem to be the states that have not even begun to or have barely started testing. Also in poorer states that seem to favor Trump more they have a population that doesn't travel as much. I have a feeling that the states will start to get hit really hard right around the time that Easter is to take place as the virus starts to reach them.
Thoughts?
crowbrow
Banned
You're suggesting to let people die and you get offended over someone calling you an idiot? I swear some people seem to have their moral priorities buried deep up their rectums.
flibbertyjibbert
Banned
really - they put an end date on it? I must have missed that
you want the population to live in a prison camp until the government decides otherwise. and you want me to believe you have morals?
Captain Zyrain
Member
Chiner was floating their magically consistant 2% CFR day-in and day-out for a while, it was a joke.
Italy is skewing it the other way though. As we see more countries continue to report in we should at least get a number that stops fluctuating as much.
Also, CA... yikes.
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Jooxed
Gold Member
You are okay with watching exponentially more people die? And you are talking about morals?
E-Cat
Member
I think he might be a libertarian.
Dr.D00p
Gold Member
If I remember correctly, German health care is not universal, its part state and part topped up by the population via insurance payments.
cryptoadam
Banned
Iceland is Doing Science — ~50% of People with COVID-19 Not Showing Symptoms, ~50% Have Very Moderate Cold Symptoms [UPDATED]
Science: do it. Iceland has decided to jump right into proper scientific methodology in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than "panic now and evaluate later." The country, which has followed similar social distancing strategies as other European nations, has been conducting a random...
cleantechnica.com
These results echo the results of another statistically helpful case. The small Italian town of Vo is where the virus was first identified in Italy. All 3,300 people living there were tested after being put into lockdown. A total of 66 people, 3% of the population, tested positive for the virus. Perhaps most importantly, most of the infected had no symptoms. After two weeks of self-isolation, 6 people still tested positive but were without symptoms, meaning that prevalence of the virus had dropped by 90% (from 66 people to just 6 people) and all symptoms of the virus were gone.
Interesting that 6% of the population was infected. Is 6% of the world infected now? Not sure about that. Another interesting fact, 90% were symptom free after 2 weeks.
BuzzFeed adds: “A study published on Monday in the magazine Science found that for every confirmed case of the virus there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections in the community. The scientists, which based their model on data from China, reported that these often milder and less infectious cases are behind nearly 80% of new cases.”
So 75K in the US can really be 375K to 750K in actuallity if we go by this study. Bad news yes, but good news is that almost all of those will survive and end up being immune in 2-4 weeks. Bad news is that still comes out to 10-40K deaths depending on CFR.
Captain Zyrain
Member
Italy deaths down a scootch
Deaths +662
Cases +6153
Thecake decline was a lie
Deaths +662
Cases +6153
The
flibbertyjibbert
Banned
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Phunkydiabetic
Banned
Who said I am being mindlessly obedient? I was responding specifically to your cringe inducing overreaction to what is fast becoming standard protocol across the world. What you described in your message can be explained using a rational and logical thought process. This isnt the government stormtroopers coming to take away your freedoms, they were checking to make sure you weren't some random jamoke out fuckin around.
In fact at the end of my message I even said the time to be truly concerned for your rights and freedoms may be coming later on. I am well aware that this whole situation is ripe for abuse. But your situation isn't it. So you might as well drop the whole "but you're a mindless sheep!" schtick. It isnt impressing anyone.
Leyasu
Banned
What annoys me the most is the way that the alarm bells in January were ignored by nearly all the governments worldwide.
Look at the timeline, January China announces a new strain SARS outbreak. Within days it locks down an entire province of 50 million people, and there is NO UN coordinated response spoken about. The US (well everyone knows that Trump has diminished America's leadership position so that it is almost nonexistent anymore, but something should have happened), allies and friendly nations didn't discuss a coordinated response, and the EU did exactly the same.... fuck all.
When you have a look at China in January, see the way the Chinese authorities reacted and then you realise just how many flights had been in and out of China since the beginning of the year, EVERY government has demonstrated nothing but complacence! We dodged a bullet with the first SARS outbreak.. This time, our luck ran out. Due to their complacence and their putting the economy first attitude, the costs once this calms down will be enormous. I am seriously expecting taxation to rise to levels not sen in decades. Most probably to levels that we on here have only ever winced at when reading about.
A coordinated response could have meant that the EU or the US went into immediate lockdown and frontier closures as soon as the first cases were reported. Complete with guaranteed assistance from other nations once the outbreak had been contained. Instead, they did nothing, talked about nothing, let it get a foothold and still did nothing in fear of damaging the economy until it was too late. Now it is everyone for themselves, with like I said massive economical damage worldwide thrown in for good measure.
But that is not all. Once individual countries start bringing things under control like China and South Korea have plus Hong Kong (I will come back to HK in a sec), the frontiers will have to be controlled with an iron rod until a vaccine has been found or other countries can demonstrate that they eradicated it or a medicine is available that renders it nothing more than a common cold. Going back to HK, they got it sorted, then opened the borders, and people brought it again. They have imposed strict quarantines since. China and South Korea also have strict quarantines in place to. All other countries are going to have to do the same. In the EU, the freedom of movement will HAVE to be stopped also. The risk is too high.
Look at the timeline, January China announces a new strain SARS outbreak. Within days it locks down an entire province of 50 million people, and there is NO UN coordinated response spoken about. The US (well everyone knows that Trump has diminished America's leadership position so that it is almost nonexistent anymore, but something should have happened), allies and friendly nations didn't discuss a coordinated response, and the EU did exactly the same.... fuck all.
When you have a look at China in January, see the way the Chinese authorities reacted and then you realise just how many flights had been in and out of China since the beginning of the year, EVERY government has demonstrated nothing but complacence! We dodged a bullet with the first SARS outbreak.. This time, our luck ran out. Due to their complacence and their putting the economy first attitude, the costs once this calms down will be enormous. I am seriously expecting taxation to rise to levels not sen in decades. Most probably to levels that we on here have only ever winced at when reading about.
A coordinated response could have meant that the EU or the US went into immediate lockdown and frontier closures as soon as the first cases were reported. Complete with guaranteed assistance from other nations once the outbreak had been contained. Instead, they did nothing, talked about nothing, let it get a foothold and still did nothing in fear of damaging the economy until it was too late. Now it is everyone for themselves, with like I said massive economical damage worldwide thrown in for good measure.
But that is not all. Once individual countries start bringing things under control like China and South Korea have plus Hong Kong (I will come back to HK in a sec), the frontiers will have to be controlled with an iron rod until a vaccine has been found or other countries can demonstrate that they eradicated it or a medicine is available that renders it nothing more than a common cold. Going back to HK, they got it sorted, then opened the borders, and people brought it again. They have imposed strict quarantines since. China and South Korea also have strict quarantines in place to. All other countries are going to have to do the same. In the EU, the freedom of movement will HAVE to be stopped also. The risk is too high.
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DragoonKain
Neighbours from Hell
We are going to blow past that number today, I guarantee you. We are about 12,000 behind and yesterday we had 14,000 infections. Today we could be looking at around 17,000+ with inflation.
Rat Rage
Member
Leyasu
Banned
Use China for an idea or work the numbers yourself to come up with a reasonable estimation.
China have started relaxing and opening up again after 7 to 8 weeks.
If you look at the figures, and work to the worst case scenarios using the available information, you can come to the following conclusions imo
Average incubation time 6-7 days (some outliers have been 14 apparently)
Average illness time 14 days
I have read conflicting lengths on the time that you stay contagious upto 14 days after you have recovered.
Adding it all together, it is over 30 days just there. Put that into weeks and correlate that with China's lockdown, and I think that we can easily assume that a lockdown with social distancing that is respected should equate to a minimum of 6 weeks.
Not ideal, but if that is what is needed for the virus to run out of hosts and burn itself out then so be it.
Captain Zyrain
Member
Italy good news?
At least recoveries are outpacing deaths (as they should).
At least recoveries are outpacing deaths (as they should).
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