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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
BigBooper
Member
This is what I was saying a year ago. Around me, in rural country, housing prices have skyrocketed from people moving out of cities and buying too high. So many sellers have been their prices exorbitantly high to try to catch someone moving from the cities. That made everyone else who lives here longterm unable to afford to buy, so if they are tied to the location and need to move or their kids move they are renting instead. With interest rates rising though, the prices will have to drop some, at least locally.To whom this may concern,
HoodWinked
Member
Let's fucking go, norwegian cruise line up 7% yesterday, 4% today and another 2% after hours. Bag held this during thier stock dilution. Finally positive.
GHG
Gold Member
I hope the same thing happens with everything I'm bag holding.
Half my fucking portfolio is swing trades gone wrong from back in February when the market decided to suddenly take a turn on us.
ManofOne
Plus Member
Raven117
Gold Member
Goodness....
I don't think buying is a great idea right now...(Though I'm constantly talking myself out of it and putting money in the market instead).
Would you buy in this market?
(You definitely know your stuff about all of this).
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ManofOne
Plus Member
Ya lumber and steel prices have nearly doubled. Plus skilled labor is becoming more scarce.
ManofOne
Plus Member
It’s a Great Time to Own Financial Stocks. Here’s Why.
The Davis Advisors portfolio manager sees an upward revaluation of durable value stocks generally, and of financials such as Capital One and Wells Fargo.
www.barrons.com
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Tapered off to +0.92%. Good enough.
Toronto is hot again. Red hot. Everyone who owns any home (aside from a condo) has their home probably up 20% vs last year. Low mortgage rates and people itching to move as last year everyone was in covid dead mode. Winter came around which always means home sales drop, but now with April spring, people have had enough waiting around and are buying and selling to get it out of their system.
As my dad always told us at the dinner table as kids in the fucking 80s!, always buy. Never rent unless broke. And if you're broke we'll help you buy. Renting just pays off some other dude's mortgage for him.
Ka ching! Cant believe semis and towns are even around $1M. lol
The sad thing is when the gov enacts laws to suppress home prices thinking they are robin hood (stress test and foreigner tax years ago), it just makes it harder for people wanting to buy a home for the first time who might not make much money. Those people will be related to buying a condo or an hour away. People with money and good jobs are the ones who can afford it and are flipping back and forth. We know even if the mortgage goes up, we'll get approved and over time home prices go up so it's a long term gainer.
Adding a 2% stress test calculation hurts a first time buyer a lot more than someone who's got money and will get approved for a big mortgage anyway.
Then at some point dump it when we retire for a mountain of money and move 90 miutes out of town for 1/3rd the price and bank the difference for retirement. lol
www.cp24.com
Splitting the month in two is significant: the first half of March 2020 looked relatively average, but restrictions enacted after the pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization on March 11 rapidly sent home sales plummeting.
A year on, available inventory hasn't caught up to the number of people seeking new homes, putting pressure on prices.
“While the robust market activity is indicative of widespread consumer optimism, it is also shedding light on the sustained lack of inventory in the GTA housing market, with implications for affordability,” she said.
The average price of a home in the region jumped 21.6 per cent to $1,097,565 from $902,787 last year, while listings shot up by about 57 per cent to reach 22,709 from 14,434.
The most dramatic price increases were seen in detached housing, where the average price was up by 26.6 per cent to hit $1,402,849.
The average semi-detached home was sold for $1,045,519, a 17.5 per cent hike, while townhouses spiked by 20.7 per cent at $870,553.
Condos saw the smallest growth in prices. The average condo price climbed by 2.6 per cent to $676,052.
Awesome. Best way to make money is real estate. Unless someone lives in a shitty town where people are leaving and the city doesn't want to put money to cleaning up the streets (derelict homes), home prices go up in time. And if you get lucky, your market shooting up.
Toronto is hot again. Red hot. Everyone who owns any home (aside from a condo) has their home probably up 20% vs last year. Low mortgage rates and people itching to move as last year everyone was in covid dead mode. Winter came around which always means home sales drop, but now with April spring, people have had enough waiting around and are buying and selling to get it out of their system.
As my dad always told us at the dinner table as kids in the fucking 80s!, always buy. Never rent unless broke. And if you're broke we'll help you buy. Renting just pays off some other dude's mortgage for him.
Ka ching! Cant believe semis and towns are even around $1M. lol
The sad thing is when the gov enacts laws to suppress home prices thinking they are robin hood (stress test and foreigner tax years ago), it just makes it harder for people wanting to buy a home for the first time who might not make much money. Those people will be related to buying a condo or an hour away. People with money and good jobs are the ones who can afford it and are flipping back and forth. We know even if the mortgage goes up, we'll get approved and over time home prices go up so it's a long term gainer.
Adding a 2% stress test calculation hurts a first time buyer a lot more than someone who's got money and will get approved for a big mortgage anyway.
Then at some point dump it when we retire for a mountain of money and move 90 miutes out of town for 1/3rd the price and bank the difference for retirement. lol
Toronto home sales increase by 97 per cent in March: TRREB
Home prices in the Toronto area continued to climb in March while sales were almost double that of the same month a year earlier, when the rapid spread of COVID-19 led to widespread economic shutdowns, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported Tuesday.
www.cp24.com
Splitting the month in two is significant: the first half of March 2020 looked relatively average, but restrictions enacted after the pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization on March 11 rapidly sent home sales plummeting.
A year on, available inventory hasn't caught up to the number of people seeking new homes, putting pressure on prices.
“While the robust market activity is indicative of widespread consumer optimism, it is also shedding light on the sustained lack of inventory in the GTA housing market, with implications for affordability,” she said.
The average price of a home in the region jumped 21.6 per cent to $1,097,565 from $902,787 last year, while listings shot up by about 57 per cent to reach 22,709 from 14,434.
The most dramatic price increases were seen in detached housing, where the average price was up by 26.6 per cent to hit $1,402,849.
The average semi-detached home was sold for $1,045,519, a 17.5 per cent hike, while townhouses spiked by 20.7 per cent at $870,553.
Condos saw the smallest growth in prices. The average condo price climbed by 2.6 per cent to $676,052.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Small Ontario towns jumped like crazy. People want out of the city due to covid, no more condos and flex work arrangements.
Have fun and google where Tillsonburg is. That's on average a $500,000 house.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Rise By Tens of Thousands Just Last Month - Better Dwelling
Canadian real estate prices are making huge leaps higher, and not just in big cities. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows prices hit a record in February. Rapid price growth is nothing new, but where it’s occurring is. Big cities, that typically lead the market, are seeing prices...
betterdwelling.com
Biggest Annual Price Gains In Southern Ontario
Small towns in Southern Ontario saw the biggest annual percent gains. Tillsonburg’s benchmark reached $476,000 in February, up 39.79% ($135,489) from the same month last year – the biggest gain of any market. Lakelands was in second, with a benchmark of $513,800, up 37.11% ($139,064) over the same period. Woodstock came in third, with a benchmark of $520,400, up 36.49% ($139,127) from a year before. If you’re from BC and have never heard of any of those places, don’t worry. Most people from Toronto probably couldn’t find them on an unmarked map. Yet, at least.Canadian Real Estate 12-Month Price Change
The 12-month change in price for a benchmark home in Canadian dollars in February 2021.
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HoodWinked
Member
Fucking hell. Couple weeks back I was thinking about NFTs and how the shit that sells is so fucking bad like it's not anything that people would ever collect in the real world. Sports highlights? Terrible gif art? But thought about playboy centerfold images make far more sense as a collectible.
Playboy stock has doubled since 5 days ago.
Playboy stock has doubled since 5 days ago.
ManofOne
Plus Member
Really interesting read
StreetsofBeige
. I enjoyed that. Thanks for the info
StreetsofBeige
. I enjoyed that. Thanks for the info
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
No worries. Toronto and area has got to be outlier for pricing stupidity in North America, but it's been like this for probably 10 years. There was a lull from 2017-2020 due to extra tests and covid, but prices still held fine. Starting late last year, it's back.Really interesting read
There's too much demand for places (esp detached homes). And the low mortgage rates seem to trump any slow down policies they add.
And the work from home flexibility is real for propping up home prices an hour away. I know two people who bought a place last year due to covid and work telling workers there is WFH flex plans, so they are approved to come in only when needed. It's all planned out. At worst, the worker comes in once in a while for important stuff with a super long commute, but who cares if that barely happens.
They sold their places and bought a new place literally twice as big for the same price at probably triple the commute time if done. So not a money banking situation, but for them more of a pure house size upgrade.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Its early but hope it holds. Up +1%. Might be 4 days in a row of green. Probably first time in months getting this.
AmuroChan
Member
Plenty of pricing stupidity in the US as well. DC is a complete shit show and has been for a while now. Private and foreign investors coming in and scooping up homes in droves with all cash offers. Then renting them out at exorbitant prices. Suburbs just outside of Manhattan are starting to see that as well. My folks live in Westchester and they've gotten multiple all cash offers for their home, even though their house is not on the market nor are they planning to move.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
As Toronto has been condomania for probably 15-20 years, it's got to a point the builder puts policies in that someone can only buy a single unit (or some limit). If they don't foreign investors swoop in and buy up entire floors!
HawksWinStanley
Member
Hey look, it's my gains for the day!
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Same boat. Was up +1%. Now +0.1%
Ass of Can Whooping
Banned
Nearly up 6%
All green baby
All green baby
ipukespiders
Member
SpartanN92
Banned
Another relatively flat day.
Up .25% the highest I got today was up .4%
Up .25% the highest I got today was up .4%
HoodWinked
Member
Weird I did a $43.61 limit order for viac and it got executed after hours but the ticket never went below $43.64
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Holy shit. I didn't follow Viacom and just read about why it crashed from $100 to $40s in 2 weeks. Wow.
HoodWinked
Member
It was an after hours order cause 2 days ago the stock sold for way less during after hours/premarket then popped up when the market opened so I just put a low ball order just surprised it got filled but the after hours never appeared to hit that low.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Feels like any gains are quickly sold off out of fear from recent dip or recovery by more speculative investors thus pushing back down against any gains made.
The comments on property investment are pretty spot on. Wife and I tripled our wealth with our first home buy, looking at an rental investment at the moment, we're setting up our own immediate family trust for that. Australia over the last 10-15 years has been insane for property median price rise.
The comments on property investment are pretty spot on. Wife and I tripled our wealth with our first home buy, looking at an rental investment at the moment, we're setting up our own immediate family trust for that. Australia over the last 10-15 years has been insane for property median price rise.
ManofOne
Plus Member
So I gonna put something crazy out here.
Before the March dip in the NASDAQ, I had placed something of a 10% correction on the market ( I got the correction right but the index wrong). I also have a idea that the market could pull back another 10% if inflation builds ( we will see the next report on April 13th). Plus a greater higher chance of market pull back if actual inflation exceeds expected in Q3-Q4
However, there is a greater more looming threat, that I think could lead to the mother of all market melt ups. Economic warefare. Basically the concept is that countries will seek to strain their opposition's economy by exploiting current weaknesses. War or war like scenarios are not cheap. Countries like the U.S rack up a fairly large bill during actual wars. For example WW2, the country had issue war bonds to help fund their campaign. In today's dollars that would nearly be $4 trillion dollars. In the 1970s the Vietnam war cost nearly $1 trillion dollars (2019 dollars) which would be nearly the same amount for the Iraq war (which we are still paying to this day).
However, over the last few weeks we've seen an escalation of tensions by Israel against Iran, Russia against Ukraine and China against Taiwan. These events would normally be consider the typical posturing for a new administration. However, I'm going suggest something different.
The costs to continually enhance surveillance and make preparations is certainly not cheap. With the 10 year yield on the rise, for every 100 basis point increase in government lending rates, the net interest expense for the federal government increases by $200 billion.
So if continue aggression is shown the U.S would most certainly have to step in to protect its allies and its interest. That cost a pretty dime. If an actual war break out, that too cost a pretty dime.
Overall the U.S will have to either print more money and release more bonds and use a larger portion of its budget to pay off interest. All of which will overheat its economy and destroy the value of the dollar in the process. Maybe this is what China and Russia wants. To destroy the store of value in the U.S dollar and get rid of it as being the world's reserve economy.
What do you guys think?
Before the March dip in the NASDAQ, I had placed something of a 10% correction on the market ( I got the correction right but the index wrong). I also have a idea that the market could pull back another 10% if inflation builds ( we will see the next report on April 13th). Plus a greater higher chance of market pull back if actual inflation exceeds expected in Q3-Q4
However, there is a greater more looming threat, that I think could lead to the mother of all market melt ups. Economic warefare. Basically the concept is that countries will seek to strain their opposition's economy by exploiting current weaknesses. War or war like scenarios are not cheap. Countries like the U.S rack up a fairly large bill during actual wars. For example WW2, the country had issue war bonds to help fund their campaign. In today's dollars that would nearly be $4 trillion dollars. In the 1970s the Vietnam war cost nearly $1 trillion dollars (2019 dollars) which would be nearly the same amount for the Iraq war (which we are still paying to this day).
However, over the last few weeks we've seen an escalation of tensions by Israel against Iran, Russia against Ukraine and China against Taiwan. These events would normally be consider the typical posturing for a new administration. However, I'm going suggest something different.
The costs to continually enhance surveillance and make preparations is certainly not cheap. With the 10 year yield on the rise, for every 100 basis point increase in government lending rates, the net interest expense for the federal government increases by $200 billion.
So if continue aggression is shown the U.S would most certainly have to step in to protect its allies and its interest. That cost a pretty dime. If an actual war break out, that too cost a pretty dime.
Overall the U.S will have to either print more money and release more bonds and use a larger portion of its budget to pay off interest. All of which will overheat its economy and destroy the value of the dollar in the process. Maybe this is what China and Russia wants. To destroy the store of value in the U.S dollar and get rid of it as being the world's reserve economy.
What do you guys think?
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GHG
Gold Member
Anyone got any opinions on parking some money in a CEF purely for the dividend? The yields on some of the ones I've seen are quite tasty but what are the pitfalls in doing so (other than the obvious fact that your initial investment is unlikely to grow much)?
I'm sat here researching this stuff at 5am... Need to stop going down these endless rabbit holes.
I'm sat here researching this stuff at 5am... Need to stop going down these endless rabbit holes.
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Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
China have been wanting to become the global centre for finance for decades now, Russia have wanted a similar down grading of the US for a long time too. The enemy of my enemy is my friend type thing. It's not far fetched at all. Russia had a program for exactly this over decades and China has been making these sorts of financial moves for the last 10-15 years as well. I forget the trio of advisors to a number of US presidents but if I recall correctly they basically blocked China on a world stage for a number of financial cornerstones for decades, it seems those virtual sandbag walls are breaching these days.
The US has always been a militarised money maker, they'll continue place themselves as a power player in other areas e.g. economic warfare. Why? Because they have the means to. Many countries employ exactly what you describe with economic warfare, China included. The US did it to Russia, Trump did it to China, back in the day the Brits did it to India and they all have a go at each other at some point. China is currently doing it to specific Australian industries since Covid. The greenback has had a massive run at being the king of world financial influence, those days have been numbered for a long time now. For example I get pissed off how the ASX is so heavily influenced by what the US markets do, why? We only export approx. 4% to the US these days, China is 40% so it seems very weird to me how we're so influenced by the US.
I get what you're saying and I agree to an extent, specifically China throwing around their financial weight, they're on par with the US in terms of GDP but I consider China far more aggressive in other areas e.g. cyber or economic warfare. I shudder to think of the capabilities China has been developing that we're not aware of as yet. They've been underestimated by the US, and allies, for a long time now. In relation to money markets I feel you're spot on, currently cyber and politics are the wild west with little recourse of action besides war itself, which no-one really wants. China and similar are willing to go further in many areas and the global community very much lacks cohesion and gumption to halt such advances.
Will this affect the US or world markets for a downturn or change of power players? It's already happened for the most part but I think we're in for more rough waters given the current political climate irrespective of which methods they choose to employ. There's still opportunity to make money in a downturn anyhow.
ManofOne
Plus Member
You're right, China and Russia has long made their economic goals clear. I've always wondered what would be a good way for China to capitalize on the U.S losses. Now would be a good time to do so and make a move.
The DXY is expect to go lower as more federal bonds hit the market. Normally a cheaper dollar would be phenomenal for a trade in the U.S but the dollar also serves as a stable store of value. If the U.S keeps printing it puts its economic goals in harms way.
I think China and Russia are sensing weakness, rather go into a direct full escalation, they will strain U.S resources via making things more expensive, war like activities have tendency to do that. Geopoltical events will be the next black swan imo.
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BigBooper
Member
I think that's what China's been in the process of doing for a long time. It feels like they've had help within the government for a long time with things that Trump brought to the forefront that no one else has discussed for 30 years. Why would we still grant China favored nation status when they blatantly steal IP, medical technology, etc? How are US companies supposed to compete with Chinese companies when China backs them financially from profits gained by stealing from US companies?
It doesn't seem as likely that Russia would support the future of China as the superpower, because while we have a cold war era mistrust of Russia, China is their neighbor. Based on the history of the CCP, I don't they'd stop until they controlled everything. At least that's what Communism ultimately aspires to, right? Without the US as an ally, Russia would have a hard time against China in a real war.
What I think the US should do immediately is ban any ownership of physical land or structure property in the US by China or Chinese citizens. That's priority #1 in my mind. After that, and I don't have a strong good feeling about it but I have thought about it for a few years, I think it might be time for an actual military war with China. Maybe spark it with some CIA psyops. We have to do something to stop the bleeding.
So what would be a good investment to hold during a cross-continental war?
ManofOne
Plus Member
So what would be a good investment to hold during a cross-continental war?
Nothing. Short the market or hold cash
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
The scary part is China isn't just leaning on the US, example Belt and Road Initiative.
Cherry picking just one local example in Cambodia.
China loaned more to developing countries than the World Bank and is close to double that of the US. What you're suggesting is well and truly underway the world over already. China is merely going to bankroll and amass in the short term. Long term they're gunning for the US to move more than just one rung down the ladder. Yes this will affect the US centric world markets.
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ManofOne
Plus Member
The scary part is China isn't just leaning on the US, example Belt and Road Initiative.
Cherry picking just one local example in Cambodia.
China loaned more to developing countries than the World Bank and is close to double that of the US. What you're suggesting is well and truly underway the world over already. China is merely going to bankroll and amass in the short term. Long term they're gunning for the US to move more than just one rung down the ladder. Yes this will affect the US centric world markets.
Yah, their debt trap has been pretty well documented. In Latin America, the bank I work for has been advising governments to diversify their external loan portoflio. Most of them owe China more than 35.0% of the total external debt. Caribbean countries are the worst of in this case.
China been biding its time. If I were Xi JingPing, I would use this next year to weaken the U.S further.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
It's a good idea and a better one to not buy into said debt trap to start with. We had a close call here in the state I live in (Victoria, Australia) where our state premier signed a Belt and Road Initiative (MoU) with China and our federal government enacted a law so they could override and cancel the state contract.
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SpartanN92
Banned
*conspiracy theory inbound*
Covid was first strike in China’s financial warfare plan.
Covid was first strike in China’s financial warfare plan.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
If we were playing Monopoly and people were paying each other, and mortgaging properties due to being one step away from bankruptcy, I'd agree.
But with countries seemingly being able to go into infinite debt (the US is what? Over $10 trillion?), it seems like some countries are teflon. Places like Greece got nailed to the cross, but for the big boys it seems like whatever they do in terms of borrowing makes no difference to every day life or economy.
The biggest factors to kill the economy and markets in the powerhouse countries arent even debt and printing money. It's shit like dot.com bust, covid shutdowns and global financial mortgage crisis, which are all different vs. something like naturally going into the shitter due to debt.
ManofOne
Plus Member
I disagree at some point debt becomes an issue as interest on debt crowds out other expenditures and global debt capacity becomes maximized. We could argue that fed could inflate debt away but that would require significantly high inflation and if significantly high inflation returns alongside greater global tensions then inflating the debt away will do little.
I think the financial market is teetering on something dangerous. Whether it be housing prices, global tensions, inflation etc. 2021 and 2022 will be pivotal in US recovery. The country needs things to remain calm for it to thrive
ManofOne
Plus Member
JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE
for U.S. state unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week for the second consecutive week , underscoring the uneven nature of the labor market recovery.
Initial claims in regular state programs increased by 16,000 to 744,000 in the week ended April 3, Labor Department data showed Thursday. Economists in a Bloomberg survey estimated 680,000 claims. The prior week’s data was revised up to 728,000. California and New York led states with the biggest increases in unadjusted claims.
The unexpected increase in claims shows the labor market still has a long way to go to recover the millions of jobs lost during the pandemic. Still, companies are poised to ramp up hiring in the coming months as vaccinations accelerate and business restrictions ease.
for U.S. state unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week for the second consecutive week , underscoring the uneven nature of the labor market recovery.
Initial claims in regular state programs increased by 16,000 to 744,000 in the week ended April 3, Labor Department data showed Thursday. Economists in a Bloomberg survey estimated 680,000 claims. The prior week’s data was revised up to 728,000. California and New York led states with the biggest increases in unadjusted claims.
The unexpected increase in claims shows the labor market still has a long way to go to recover the millions of jobs lost during the pandemic. Still, companies are poised to ramp up hiring in the coming months as vaccinations accelerate and business restrictions ease.
CrankyJay™
Member
Nasdaq is up like $900 from the recent lows and I’m still down a bunch from my highs. Feels bad.
just goes to show that money has rotated out of biotech and spacs
just goes to show that money has rotated out of biotech and spacs
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Raven117
Gold Member
The West absolutely has to take China seriously. They are not interested in joining the world order. They want to knock off the US and the EU as the financial center of the world.
everyday that goes by that we don’t, collectively, recognize that we have to actively fight for our position as the world financial center, is a day we get weaker.
everyday that goes by that we don’t, collectively, recognize that we have to actively fight for our position as the world financial center, is a day we get weaker.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
+0.5%. Not bad. Might be 5 days in a row green totaling maybe about 3%. I'll take it.
CrankyJay™
Member
up 1.73% currently