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[Alexios]

Oh, I thought it did much less for some reason. What other successful games did they make on their own (so not some Dragon Quest)?

I know WKC did well but don't know of another.

Edit: wait, they have insane popular stuff like Inazuma too right? Maybe I had a brain fart and confused them with another...

Anyway, there are games that do well when handled well, see the Tales of games on PS3, Sengoku Basara 3, and others.

But really, what JRPG for example, on a home console, could possibly appeal to people as much as DQIX did? X could have, alas it's an MMORPG now.

 

[Alrus]

Oh, I thought it did much less for some reason. What other successful games did they make on their own (so not some Dragon Quest)?

I know WKC did well but don't know of another.

Edit: wait, they have insane popular stuff like Inazuma too right? Maybe I had a brain fart and confused them with another...

Inazuma and Layton yeah. The original LBX on the PSP did close to 400k (or more, I don't remember) too.

 

[Erethian]

On a side note I wanna ask you guys one thing: if FFXIII-2 doesn't sell well, how much your sure it's related to XIII's output and how more related to japanese players loosing interest in home console games? Afterall, Skyward Sword too had low sales and was already a sequel of a great game and even better than the previous one. Ni No Kuni had a bad destiny too. Monster Hunter tri on Wii too didn't achieve the same success of portable versions. And so on.

The point I make then is easy: maybe it's not FF loosing fans, it's japanese players that want their saga to move on portables like Dragon Quest did.

Tales of Xillia sold extremely well, so I don't think there's any absence of people wanting to play RPGs on consoles.

 

[Perfo]

Tales of Xillia sold extremely well

It's rare anyway a success like that. And I was not speaking only of jRPGs though. All console games I "think" sell less in this generation in Japan compared to portables. Do we have total sales for software in Japan, PS3 vs DS vs PSP? I'd be curious to see if there's really a big difference in that.

 

[Road]

Dengeki Sales, Dec 05 - 11, 2011 (Week 50)

01. (__) [3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G (Capcom) - 525,138 / 525,138
02. (01) [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 179,757 / 602,216 (-57%)
03. (03) [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 88,157 / 713,503 (+20%)
04. (__) [PS3] The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda) - 76,271 / 76,271
05. (02) [PS3] Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. (Bandai Namco) - 63,940 / 399,830 (-81%)
06. (__) [PS3] Dragon Ball Z: Ultimate Tenkaichi (Bandai Namco) - 45,050 / 45,050
07. (__) [NDS] Magician's Quest: Osharena Mahoutsukai (Konami) - 44,324 / 44,324
08. (07) [WII] Kirby's Return to Dream Land (Nintendo) - 41,024 / 318,225 (+62%)
09. (__) [360] The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda) - 32,364 / 32,364
10. (__) [PSP] Toaru Kagaku no Railgun (ASCII Media Works) - 31,448 / 31,448
11. (17) [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo) - 30,367 / ? (+88%)
12. (15) [WII] Just Dance Wii (Nintendo) - 29,765 / 278,042 (+66%)
13. (__) [WII] Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games (Nintendo) - 29,519 / 29,519
14. (__) [NDS] Metal Max 2: Reloaded (Kadokawa Games) - 29,400 / 29,400
15. (16) [WII] PokePark 2: Beyond the World (Pokemon Co.) - 25,929 / 112,458 (+56%)
16. (05) [WII] The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Nintendo) - 21,859 / 258,081 (-36%)
17. (21) [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 21,747 / ?
18. (12) [NDS] One Piece: Gigant Battle! 2 New World (Bandai Namco) - 21,212 / 190,247 (+9%)
19. (13) [PSP] Little Battlers eXperience - Boost (Level 5) - 20,606 / 102,930 (+6%)
20. (18) [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii: Ketteiban (Bandai Namco) - 20,127 / 69,250 (+27%)

*ST: Sell-through => estimated copies shipped.


Other software (first week / LTD):
2009-08-01 [WII] Monster Hunter Tri (Capcom) - 527,000 / 1,099,000


[3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G - 85~90% sell-through in almost every shop.

[3DS] Hardware - 357,000 (+73.5%) / 3.26 million LTD.


http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/439/439442/
http://megalodon.jp/2011-1216-1855-57/news.dengeki.com/soft/ranking/ranking.html

Week 49: 11-28~12-04

 

[Erethian]

It's rare anyway a success like that. And I was not speaking only of jRPGs though. All console games I "think" sell less in this generation in Japan compared to portables. Do we have total sales for software in Japan, PS3 vs DS vs PSP? I'd be curious to see if there's really a big difference in that.

If you're talking about total software sales the DS in its peak years destroys everything else.

But if we're talking about mainline Final Fantasy titles, those can still do well on a console, and arguably the kind of experience that people look for from the series are more easily achieved on a console.

 

[Kenka]

[3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G - 85~90% sell-through in almost every shop.

Alright, so we have had a 521/.9 = 580k first shipment ? Or does this number include the restock that occured quickly after launch ?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Other software (first week / LTD):
2009-08-01 [WII] Monster Hunter Tri (Capcom) - 527,000 / 1,099,000


[3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G - 85~90% sell-through in almost every shop.

[3DS] Hardware - 357,000 (+73.5%) / 3.26 million LTD.

Spookily close to Tri's FW sales, but clearly with a far, far better ST.

It sounds like a major restock went out over the last day or so, so the question now is whether it's going to perform like Tri and hit ~750-800k before slumping and crawling to a million, or whether it will have the legs of its PSP cousins. I still think Capcom should exceed their 1.2 million shipment estimate, but this coming week should be the decider - the game will be restocked, we're hitting the height of the Christmas period and the system is popular. If it's going to do better than Tri, we'll see the signs next week.

 

[electroplankton]

Happy about this:

14. (__) [NDS] Metal Max 2: Reloaded (Kadokawa Games) - 29,400 / 29,400

The third one went to sell roughly 80k copies, and these results are way higher than Metal Saga on both DS and GBA. Hope the series will continue somewhere since there are the conditions to do that.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Spookily close to Tri's FW sales, but clearly with a far, far better ST.

It sounds like a major restock went out over the last day or so, so the question now is whether it's going to perform like Tri and hit ~750-800k before slumping and crawling to a million, or whether it will have the legs of its PSP cousins. I still think Capcom should exceed their 1.2 million shipment estimate, but this coming week should be the decider - the game will be restocked, we're hitting the height of the Christmas period and the system is popular. If it's going to do better than Tri, we'll see the signs next week.

It's going to crush Tri.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

It's going to crush Tri.

I would hope so - it has far more going for it in terms of platform, launch period etc. - but I've seen so many sales surprises over the past year or two that I'm no longer prepared to be so certain. I think DCharlie is right in his interpretation of the appeal of the game to the MH fanbase, though wrong in his conclusions about where that will leave sales, but I think we need at least one more week's data to get a real idea of what's going to happen.

PS Vita first shipment may top 700k

http://andriasang.com/comze0/vita_shipments/

Ah, finally. Will be interesting to see how things go here...

 

[Road]

Alright, so we have had a 521/.9 = 580k first shipment ? Or does this number include the restock that occured quickly after launch ?

The shipments numbers trackers estimate aren't necessarily the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. shipment. They estimate how many copies were available on stores and how many were sold by the end of that week (then, they just divide one number by the other).

It could have been that the first shipment for MH3G was 600k or that it was 420k and got a second shipment. We can't be 100% sure just from the sell-through number.

Also, since Dengeki was more vague about the ST in this case, I didn't make any extrapolation. But using 87.5% (the average between 85% and 90%), the first week shipment would be 600k. We'll probably only have better info with the MC White Paper released in 2012.

 

[Kenka]

PS Vita first shipment may top 700k

http://andriasang.com/comze0/vita_shipments/

Alright. Sounds like a good start to begin with.

 

[Magicpaint]

PS Vita first shipment may top 700k

http://andriasang.com/comze0/vita_shipments/

Sounds good!

 

[allan-bh]

Best debut in Japan is PS2 with 630K (famitsu) I believe.

 

[Kenka]

I didn't make any extrapolation. But using 87.5% (the average between 85% and 90%), the first week shipment would be 600k. We'll probably only have better info with the MC White Paper released in 2012.

Thanks for the explanation in your post. I hope we can witness a maximal 50% drop rate each week until the end of the holidays and see its sales level off 20k for the rest of the winter. In this comfortable scenario, it could reach 1.5M easily. I don't see it go further though.

Recall me please : the game has no online but it has local multi, right ? How limited is that compared to MHP3 ?

 

[Nirolak]

I'm going to split your first post out for a new thread in a moment.

I hope you don't mind.

I'll leave the rest in here though.

 

[Erethian]

Thanks for the explanation in your post. I hope we can witness a maximal 50% drop rate each week until the end of the holidays and see its sales level off 20k for the rest of the winter. In this comfortable scenario, it could reach 1.5M easily. I don't see it go further though.

Recall me please : the game has no online but it has local multi, right ? How limited is that compared to MHP3 ?

MHP3 didn't have online either, unless you count adhoc party.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Seriously?
One's a popular game to play in schools while the other is a popular game to play in schools. No friction there at all.

Previous Mario Karts and Monster Hunters coexisted leggily. I don't see why it would be much worse now that it's more convenient to supplement one with the other by taking up an additional cubic centimeter of pocket space.

 

[king zell]

FINAL FANTASY XIII-2 (this week biggest release)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/52609/
http://www.true-gaming.net/home/52582/

more releases for the week

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/52595/

 

[Kenka]

FINAL FANTASY XIII-2 (this week biggest release)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/52609/
http://www.true-gaming.net/home/52582/

more releases for the week

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/52595/

Mashallah. But where are the queues ?

 

[guek]

Mashallah. But where are the queues ?

Yesss, DCharlie led me to believe more queues = more sales greater than 800k!

FFXIII sold a little more than 1.7mil in japan, right?

XIII-2 will probably break a million, but is FF still a huge draw in Japan? And by that I mean do people go nuts for it, not will people buy it.

 

[Sage00]

Looks like 3DS finally caught up with DS first year trend. Really interesting complete shift from launch aligned PSP performance to DS performance actually.

It'll be a big ask for it to keep up with that pace though, since the DS holiday season is coming up.

It all hinges on how Monster Hunter continues to push hardware in the first few months of the new year.

 

[slaughterking]

Very promising first shipment.

 

[Gravijah]

Very promising first shipment.

here's to a successful handheld gaming gen!

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

So next week will be the last for predictions this year, there are a few interesting software releases so I think we'll do them and no hardware or older software. Is it okay or do everyone want pissing contest entries (MH3G 3rd week vs FFXIII-2 2nd, 3DS vs Vita)?

 

[wazoo]

It'll be a big ask for it to keep up with that pace though, since the DS holiday season is coming up.

In aligned plots, 3DS will always be behind DS because of its launch date, and then catch up and then lose it and so on. Ds has the benefits of launching around christmas, so after approx 1 year it had benefited from two christmas, as your plot shows up.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Yeah, DS will definitely take the lead again. When it comes to the first 52 weeks, though, looks like 3DS's only real competition is GBA.

Note: tracker mixing since Media Create info starts after GBA launch.

 

[Jonnyram]

Previous Mario Karts and Monster Hunters coexisted leggily. I don't see why it would be much worse now that it's more convenient to supplement one with the other by taking up an additional cubic centimeter of pocket space.

DS audience was spread across many age groups, PSP was more specific. Right now, we don't know where 3DS is, as Nintendo has yet to release data with the current userbase.

 

[Chris1964]

So next week will be the last for predictions this year, there are a few interesting software releases so I think we'll do them and no hardware or older software. Is it okay or do everyone want pissing contest entries (MH3G 3rd week vs FFXIII-2 2nd, 3DS vs Vita)?

There isn't the big release, taking a break for some weeks won't be bad.

 

[Jokeropia]

Do we have total sales for software in Japan, PS3 vs DS vs PSP? I'd be curious to see if there's really a big difference in that.

PS3: ~33.7m.
PSP: ~61.4m.
DS: ~168.2m.

 

[Spiegel]

Sell-through percentages in the first week (Famitsu)

[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd - 746,313 90.29%
[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2ndG - 823,265 95.83%
[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 3rd - 2,146,467 95.08%
[Wii] Monster Hunter 3 - 582,548 54.36%

 

[Mpl90]

Sell-through percentages in the first week (Famitsu)

[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd - 746,313 90.29%
[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2ndG - 823,265 95.83%
[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 3rd - 2,146,467 95.08%
[Wii] Monster Hunter 3 - 582,548 54.36%

In line with the portable entries. MH3 the original seems out of place after those three 90%.

 

[Perfo]

PS3: ~33.7m.
PSP: ~61.4m.
DS: ~168.2m.

That's it

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

There isn't the big release, taking a break for some weeks won't be bad.

No faith in Orochi, is it? Not a bad way to end the year with the Vita launch week (plus whole december results in early january) either. Could be a long break though.

 

[Mpl90]

Get6-2 has shared his impressions on yesterday
Looking at it with Google Translator, I can only understand that FFXIII-2 is considered bad and unexpected, while Inazuma Eleven Go sold more than the expected (with growth in weekend that will follow according to him) on the first day, and the shipment shouldn't be so low with Holidays incoming?

Since this is coming from Google Translator, I'm asking to you to translate, Japan GAF!

FFXIII-2

昨日発売の「PS3&360：FF13-2」は、
個人的には期待していなかった分悪くないスタートという印象。

しかし世間的にはメーカー提示数をそのまま発注していた問屋が、
発売前から掛安案内をしている事から不調という事なのかも。

スクエニのタイトルはコンビニ枠や量販シェアが高く、
販売数予測はとても難しいためパス。

当然の事ではありますが「13」超えはないでしょう。

Inazuma Eleven Go

2番手には発売前にバタバタしていた「3DS：イナズマイレブンGO」。

週末以降からの伸びに期待したいタイトルでしたが、
発売初日から予想以上に売れているようです。

ただ、出荷数がそこそこなので、
品薄感は今のところありません。

人気コンテンツですしクリスマス～正月まで品揃えしたいタイトルです。


その他のタイトルは忙しくて細かくみれませんでした。

 

[Cosmonaut X]

It really isn't looking good for XIII-2 so far...

 

[Kenka]

I am also interested in the translation. It can't be that late in Japan, right ? J-GAF has gone clubbin or wat

 

[Zhund0r]

Well, it launched during the middle of the week. This is quite unusual for a Final Fantasy, but the Vita took the weekend spot away Probably many people will buy it the coming days. XIII-2 isn't the typical "must have day 0 title". Let's wait and see

 

[DCharlie]

I think DCharlie is right in his interpretation of the appeal of the game to the MH fanbase, though wrong in his conclusions about where that will leave sales, but I think we need at least one more week's data to get a real idea of what's going to happen.

my theory also banks on Nintendo still having a shitty pressing deal on carts and that -if- sales slump they'll slam the brakes on. If this coming week does slump into sub 100k units, then i'd say 800k is a lock. 200k it's clearly all over!

but yeah, i agree that i've still probably got the figures wrong - i expect about 180k this week. Seems to be massive stock everywhere, but the price is super attractive now. I think that's been driven by Amazon rather than it being an attempt to spur on flaggin demand (though it's clearly went down since the first few days)

 

[Kenka]

Well, it launched during the middle of the week. This is quite unusual for a Final Fantasy, but the Vita took the weekend spot away Probably many people will buy it the coming days. XIII-2 isn't the typical "must have day 0 title". Let's wait and see

There are VERY few examples of J-RPGs showing legs. The Final Fantasy series has never been known for showing for a long time in the charts. It's almost as legless as the Gundam series.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

PS3: ~33.7m.
PSP: ~61.4m.
DS: ~168.2m.

What about Wii and 360?

 

[Zhund0r]

There are VERY few examples of J-RPGs showing legs. The Final Fantasy series has never been known for showing for a long time in the charts. It's almost as legless as the Gundam series.

Sure, but it's still only the very first week.

 

[cvxfreak]

Get6-2 indeed does paint a bleak picture for FFXIII-2 and says that it's pretty obvious it won't do as well as FFXIII.

Inazuma Eleven Go should do well during the weekend, but it had a better than expected start.

 

[test_account]

What about Wii and 360?

Wii: ~56.8m

Xbox 360: ~8.4m


Does anyone have 3rd party numbers VS 1st party numbers for all the systems in this generation by the way?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Wii: ~56.8m

Xbox 360: ~8.4m

Cool, thanks.

 

[onipex]

Seriously?
One's a popular game to play in schools while the other is a popular game to play in schools. No friction there at all.

I don't think the audience overlaps enough to stop one game from selling.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I don't think the audience overlaps enough to stop one game from selling.

Agreed. I mean it's not like Pokémon killed Mario Kart or vice versa before.

 

[djplaeskool]

Get6-2 indeed does paint a bleak picture for FFXIII-2 and says that it's pretty obvious it won't do as well as FFXIII.

I don't think anyone was really expecting it to do as well as XIII.
I think more people will be using the X:X-2 ratio to determine success.
It will do well enough, but I have a feeling they won't be needing another shipment.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

my theory also banks on Nintendo still having a shitty pressing deal on carts and that -if- sales slump they'll slam the brakes on. If this coming week does slump into sub 100k units, then i'd say 800k is a lock. 200k it's clearly all over!

but yeah, i agree that i've still probably got the figures wrong - i expect about 180k this week. Seems to be massive stock everywhere, but the price is super attractive now. I think that's been driven by Amazon rather than it being an attempt to spur on flaggin demand (though it's clearly went down since the first few days)

I do wonder about the manufacturing process - it was the source of lots of complaints from publishers with the DS, but with Sony moving to solid-state as well I wonder if there's actually less pressure on Nintendo to improve that side of things. A glimpse behind the curtain would be interesting...