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[Spiegel]

comparisson is fine, its expectations that should be kept in check

Expectations in check? Why? KH3D is the next big (non-numbered) KH game and on a non-tanking console with a good userbase.

I can understand having the expectations in check for something like Project Mirai or Dynasty Warriors VS, but for KH3D?

 

[electroplankton]

358/2 days numbers = good
BBS numbers = great

I don't think either way will change SE's or any developers mind and support for the 3DS.

Moreover, 3D has more chances to sell in the West + I can see a Final Mix version more successful as the installed base increases.

 

[cw_sasuke]

What about the actual sales history which we can draw from? It performs exactly like the sort of games you say it is not like, and not like the sort of games you think it is like. What does that say?

I would say KH has historically performed like we expect a major core title from S-E to perform on the platforms it has been on.

Fair point - but for me its still a series with a casual appeal especially in 3D with its, Dream Eaters, AR minigames + Disney and its general style. There is nothing wrong with having casual appeal and there arent many RPGs with that appeal and those sales today. What im trying to say is a KH title would in general perform better on a Nintendo handheld, than for example a Persona title compared to other plattforms.

358/2 was a crappy title imo and it sales surprised me back than and it sold way more than i would have expected. It wasnt a main effort and still put of some good numbers and benefited form the DS userbase at that point.

 

[frankie_baby]

Expectations in check? Why? KH3D is the next big (non-numbered) KH game and on a non-tanking console with a good userbase.

I can see having the expectations in check for something like Project Mirai or Dynasty Warriors VS, but for KH3D?

simply because its selling to 5 million potential customers not 13 million (or 20 something million in the case of days), dont get me wrong i believe it will sell well but it will be taking a haircut from previous entries

 

[duckroll]

Fair point - but for me its still a series with a casual appeal especially in 3D with its, Dream Eaters, AR minigames + Disney and its general style. There is nothing wrong with having casual appeal and there arent many RPGs with that appeal and those sales today. What im trying to say is a KH title would in general perform better on a Nintendo handheld, than for example a Persona title compared to other plattforms.

I don't disagree with you. I think that many aspects of KH3D should enable it to do even better on the 3DS. The game is very much tailor made to the platform, more so than many other major releases of this sort. A lot of effort has been put into it.

What I am saying is that the core audience that cares deeply about KH will be there at day 1, like they would be if this was released on any other platform. Hence, there is no reason to expect the title to do worse than BbS. If anything, it should do even better in the long term, because it should be potentially appealing to even non-KH fans.

simply because its selling to 5 million potential customers not 13 million (or 20 something million in the case of days), dont get me wrong i believe it will sell well but it will be taking a haircut from previous entries

So what about MGS games?

 

[electroplankton]

Fair point - but for me its still a series with a casual appeal especially in 3D with its, Dream Eaters, AR minigames + Disney and its general style. There is nothing wrong with having casual appeal and there arent many RPGs with that appeal and those sales today. What im trying to say is a KH title would in general perform better on a Nintendo handheld, than for example a Persona title compared to other plattforms.

358/2 was a crappy title imo and it sales surprised me back than and it sold way more than i would have expected. It wasnt a main effort and still put of some good numbers and benefited form the DS userbase at that point.

Maybe are you referring to the big female base KH have always had? Girls are often seen as casual gamers even though sometimes they're not.

 

[Spiegel]

simply because its selling to 5 million potential customers not 13 million (or 20 something million in the case of days), dont get me wrong i believe it will sell well but it will be taking a haircut from previous entries

But usually a low userbase for big established franchises cuts the LTD sales, not the first week sales. And with a rapidly growing weekly userbase, KH3D shouldn't have that problem

 

[frankie_baby]

I don't disagree with you. I think that many aspects of KH3D should enable it to do even better on the 3DS. The game is very much tailor made to the platform, more so than many other major releases of this sort. A lot of effort has been put into it.

What I am saying is that the core audience that cares deeply about KH will be there at day 1, like they would be if this was released on any other platform. Hence, there is no reason to expect the title to do worse than BbS. If anything, it should do even better in the long term, because it should be potentially appealing to even non-KH fans.



So what about MGS games?

i seem to remember the ps3 had a severe lack of anything else to buy on it when mgs4 came out

 

[Erethian]

Regarding KH3D, does anyone have in hand the HW bumps from 358/2 and BBS launches?

Garaph has all the relevant figures.

358/2 Days:
Previous week
Release week

BBS:
Previous week
Release week

 

[duckroll]

i seem to remember the ps3 had a severe lack of anything else to buy on it when mgs4 came out

So MGS2 and MGS3 had the same PS2 userbase when they each came out?

 

[Nibel]

Now I understand why people assume it will sell a lot. Damn.

 

[frankie_baby]

Now I understand why people assume it will sell a lot. Damn.

anyone know how many of the bundles were made? its been going for stupid money for weeks on amazon so its safe to say they've sold all of them

 

[Laguna]

I'm not. I'm talking about MGS games. They sell above 700k in Japan, and the major releases have consistently sold similar first weeks and LTD sales on every platform regardless of userbase number.

MGS4 basically was PS3 Smash Bros (GameCube) and we know what kind of incredible attache rate this got on GC it even became a million seller on such a tiny GC userbase - exception to the rule... KH by no means takes the same importance in 3DSs lineup as MGS4 did back then on PS3. You can´t name exceptions to the rule as examples. KH3D is just another "big" game among others this is one of the reasons why it doesn´t get as much hype as BBS did back then. On PSP their were several Metal Gears releases before it got to this kind of numbers with MGPW.

2 MGAcid games, some Visual novels on UMDs, MGOps and MGSOps+. In other words in this case there obviously was a build up and the fact that by then the userbase was more than double as big as 3DSs today and the system had already some years and revisions. So MGS isn´t really a good example, actually it proofs my point.

When you want to go with Final Fantasy. We know how popular this series is, this is one of the definite system sellers in Japan, either way on PSP it took 2-3 years before Crisis Core hit stores. And FF13 sold quite worse than its predecessors and knowing its front-loaded nature (word of mouth takes its time) so the main reason it underperfomed was the way too small userbase.

In my opinion KH is a popular series that benefits a lot from the Final Fantasy fanbase. It also seems to be in decline looking at the bad sales for the second DS game and the impressions I got. At the very least KH3D got a lot less hype then other KH games some years before.

 

[BishopLamont]

I personally think DDD will outsell BBS. It has everything going for it. It will help towards showing third parties that the 3DS is really the PS2 of handhelds, for third parties games that aren't just 5M sellers, every result that exceeds expectations early on will go a long towards solidifying the 3DS as the de facto platform to go to for its entire future. Still, it really is just early days for the 3DS, its just that with all the successes and so much riding on the 3DS, its increased everyone's expectations in general, and so yes expectations should be kept in check.

 

[duckroll]

MGS4 basically was PS3 Smash Bros (GameCube) and we know what kind of incredible attache rate this got on GC. KH by no means takes the same importance in 3DSs lineup as MGS4 did back then on PS3. You can´t name exceptions to the rule as examples. KH3D is just another "big" game among others this is one of the reasons why it doesn´t get as much hype as BBS did back then. On PSP their were several Metal Gears releases before it got to this kind of numbers with MGPW.

2 MGAcid games, some Visual novels on UMDs, MGOps and MGSOps+. In other words in this case there obviously was a build up and the fact that by then the userbase was more than double as big as 3DSs today and the system had already some years and revisions. So MGS isn´t really a good example, actually it proofs my point.

I think that's all nonsense really. The MGS core fanbase doesn't care about any of those. There are some people who do, but the numbers are a lot smaller, so those spinoffs sell according. The type of MGS games that the core fans want are the ones directed by Kojima and play like a real MGS game with solid production values. That is why MGS, MGS2, MGS3, MGS4, and MGS PW all sold the same amounts. That is my point.

 

[Wazzim]

I personally think DDD will outsell BBS. It has everything going for it. It will help towards showing third parties that the 3DS is really the PS2 of handhelds, for third parties games that aren't just 5M sellers, every result that exceeds expectations early on will go a long towards solidifying the 3DS as the de facto platform to go to for its entire future. Still, it really is just early days for the 3DS, its just that with all the successes and so much riding on the 3DS, its increased everyone's expectations in general, and so yes expectations should be kept in check.

Seems a bit early to call it the PS2 of handhelds, it has only been out for a year.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I
What I am saying is that the core audience that cares deeply about KH will be there at day 1, like they would be if this was released on any other platform. Hence, there is no reason to expect the title to do worse than BbS. If anything, it should do even better in the long term, because it should be potentially appealing to even non-KH fans.

No argument there, i expect a similar outcome.

Maybe are you referring to the big female base KH have always had? Girls are often seen as casual gamers even though sometimes they're not.

Casual appeal for me just means that it appeals to different audiences without loosing too much of it charm. Hardcore KH fans can enjoy the titles as can beginners, there is no high entry barrier even if you havent played the first titles.

 

[Bruno MB]

I can't see how Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance can outsell Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep unless it opens with 400,000 units sold. Even with good legs it won't get past 600k - 650k with a debut in the low to mid 300k-ish.

To be honest I'm most interested in Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D after the disappointment Dragon Quest: Slime Morimori 3 was. I want that rumored Dragon Quest VII remake and the eventual Dragon Quest XI.

 

[Laguna]

I think that's all nonsense really. The MGS core fanbase doesn't care about any of those. There are some people who do, but the numbers are a lot smaller, so those spinoffs sell according. The type of MGS games that the core fans want are the ones directed by Kojima and play like a real MGS game with solid production values. That is why MGS, MGS2, MGS3, MGS4, and MGS PW all sold the same amounts. That is my point.

I know this may surprise you but there isn´t just MGS out there and especially PW isn´t exactly a great example since there was a build up with several MG titles, the userbase was around 15mio. and PSp was already out some years. Games like Gran Tourismo, Final Fantasy, PES, DW in other words former million sellers took a nose dive with the transition to PS3 but of course the limited userbase was only an insignificant factor It´s also just a coincidence that a lot of Nintendos own franchises sold multiple time more than last gen.

Obviously it isn´t only important how big a userbase is, the more important thing for a publisher is if the demographic is already on the plattform, a big userbase of course helps as well as similar games that build up a certain demographic and interest. This will also be one of the reasons why PSO2 probably will sell alot worse than PSportable if there won´t be a MH of some sort.

 

[test_account]

Obviously it isn´t only important how big a userbase is, the more important thing for a publisher is if the demographic is already on the plattform, a big userbase of course helps as well as similar games that build up a certain demographic and interest. This will also be one of the reasons why PSO2 probably will sell alot worse than PSportable if there won´t be a MH of some sort.

PSO2 is free to play, also free to download, and that most likely include the Vita version too. There might be a retail version as well, but the sales numbers wont mean much when you can download it for free.

 

[duckroll]

I know this may surprise you but there isn´t just MGS out there and especially PW isn´t exactly a great example since there was a build up with several MG titles, the userbase was around 15mio. and PSp was already out some years. Games like Gran Tourismo, Final Fantasy, PES, DW in other words former million sellers took a nose dive with the transition to PS3 but of course the limited userbase was only an insignificant factor It´s also just a coincidence that a lot of Nintendos own franchises sold multiple time more than last gen.

Obviously it isn´t only important how big a userbase is, the more important thing for a publisher is if the demographic is already on the plattform, a big userbase of course helps as well as similar games that build up a certain demographic and interest. This will also be one of the reasons why PSO2 probably will sell alot worse than PSportable if there won´t be a MH of some sort.

I understand where you're coming from, I'm just saying that I disagree that userbase is really a huge factor in this discussion at all, because there are tons of core KH fans who know that this is the follow up to BbS, and it has been announced for 2 years now.

There is no reason to expect it to automatically do worse than BbS. It's definitely a big title on a very healthy platform which is growing every day. The strong 3DS line-up in the future helps the game, and does not hurt it. Since people will be more willing to buy into the platform if they have not already, because there is clear support.

 

[AdventureRacing]

simply because its selling to 5 million potential customers not 13 million (or 20 something million in the case of days), dont get me wrong i believe it will sell well but it will be taking a haircut from previous entries

It will be 5.5 million by next week and the userbase is rapidly growing. I really don't think the size of the userbase can be blamed when we're talking about sales less than a million.

 

[electroplankton]

I understand where you're coming from, I'm just saying that I disagree that userbase is really a huge factor in this discussion at all, because there are tons of core KH fans who know that this is the follow up to BbS, and it has been announced for 2 years now.

There is no reason to expect it to automatically do worse than BbS. It's definitely a big title on a very healthy platform which is growing every day. The strong 3DS line-up in the future helps the game, and does not hurt it. Since people will be more willing to buy into the platform if they have not already, because there is clear support.

duckroll, don't you think that a successful Final Mix version + international sales could offset a partial loss in sales compared to BBS?

 

[Chris1964]

Word of mouth will determine KH3D sales if it opens low (<300k) and if it's good the 3DS increasing userbase will help it.

What was S-E advertising? Similar to BBS or they pulled a RE: Revelations?

 

[duckroll]

duckroll, don't you think that a successful Final Mix version + international sales could offset a partial loss in sales compared to BBS?

There is no way to answer that question at this point because:

a) I don't feel there will be a loss in sales at all compared to BbS. So asking me that doesn't make a lot of sense.

b) Final Mix sales depend heavily on what the Final Mix actually is. A meaningless question at this point in time.

International sales should be way better though. I wonder if there'll be sales synergy between Epic Mickey 2 and Kingdom Hearts 3D on the 3DS in the west. That could be interesting. We're looking at two games which would appeal to a very similar audience when we take into consideration the much larger fanbase outside of Japan.

Word of mouth will determine KH3D sales if it opens low (<300k) and if it's good the 3DS increasing userbase will help it.

What was S-E advertising? Similar to BBS or they pulled a RE: Revelations?

Can you expand on this question? I'm not sure what it means.

 

[Road]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201203/29012338.html

Famitsu 2011 Fiscal Year

2011-03-28~2012-03-25

Value:

Hardware: 170.24 billion yen (-0.3%)
Software: 272.28 billion yen (-9.8%)
Overall: 442.52 billion yen (-6.4%)


Hardware FY unit sales / LTD:

3DS: 4,640,601 / 5,442,024
PSP: 1,688,311 / 18,556,164
PS3: 1,531,402 / 7,873,352
WII: 804,614 / 12,339,204
PSV: 619,419 / 619,419
NDS: 250,190 / 32,849,060
360: 87,237 / 1,535,902


Top 5 software titles:

1 [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 1,607,741
2 [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 1,470,404
3 [3DS] Monster Hunter 3G (Capcom) - 1,289,794
4 [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 815,732
5 [PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors (Bandai Namco) - 770,873


FY 2010: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=26849533&postcount=290

 

[electroplankton]

There is no way to answer that question at this point because:

a) I don't feel there will be a loss in sales at all compared to BbS. So asking me that doesn't make a lot of sense.

b) Final Mix sales depend heavily on what the Final Mix actually is. A meaningless question at this point in time.

International sales should be way better though. I wonder if there'll be sales synergy between Epic Mickey 2 and Kingdom Hearts 3D on the 3DS in the west. That could be interesting. We're looking at two games which would appeal to a very similar audience when we take into consideration the much larger fanbase outside of Japan.

Ok, really sorry for the meaningless question.

 

[duckroll]

Ok, really sorry for the meaningless question.

Err.. you don't have to apologize for anything like that. That kinda makes me feel bad. It was a valid question which I answered based on my personal opinions on it. Just because I am unable to answer the question because there isn't enough data for me to make a meaningful answer doesn't mean it's your fault.

 

[king zell]

1 [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 1,607,741
2 [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 1,470,404
3 [3DS] Monster Hunter 3G (Capcom) - 1,289,794
4 [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 815,732
5 [PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors (Namco Bandai) - 770,873

fixed

 

[Road]

Road, thanks as always for your work with the predictions. There won't be any predictions this week, right?

There's SRW and really nothing else. Based on past feedback that doesn't seem that interesting.

New releases {2012.04.05}

[3DS] Poyo Poyo Observation Diary # <TBL> (IE Institute) (¥5.040)
[3DS] TOEIC Test: Ultra-Fast Training <EDU> (IE Institute) (¥3.990)

[NDS] Oshare ni Koi Shite 2 Plus <ETC> (Culture Brain) (¥3.339)

[PSP] 2nd Super Robot Wars Z: Saisei-hen <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥7.330)

[PS3] Mahjong Dream C Club <TBL> (D3 Publisher) (¥7.140)
[PS3] Borderlands: Game of the Year Edition (2K GAMES Collection) <RPG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥2.940)

[360] Kinect Star Wars # <ACT> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥5.880)

fixed

Yeah, I copy-pasted from last year and didn't change the publishers. haha (Coincidentally, FFXIII-2 was in the same position as DQMJ2) Thanks for noticing.

 

[Chris1964]

Can you expand on this question? I'm not sure what it means.

Strong advertising or not?

 

[electroplankton]

Err.. you don't have to apologize for anything like that. That kinda makes me feel bad. It was a valid question which I answered based on my personal opinions on it. Just because I am unable to answer the question because there isn't enough data for me to make a meaningful answer doesn't mean it's your fault.

Oke. I was asking because a Final Mix version (content-wise, in line with BbS Final Mix) might be a valid reason to buy the game for those who did not have the platform at that time (let's say, one year before). Well, let's, maybe it will open better than many of us really expect.

 

[duckroll]

Strong advertising or not?

Marketing seems on par with BbS in Japan at least. It's definitely known among series fans that this is the follow up to BbS, from the same team, with similar gameplay and even more improvements. The only downer seems to be the low number of worlds, but the expectation is that each world is larger than the ones in BbS.

 

[Chris1964]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201203/29012338.html

Famitsu 2011 Fiscal Year

2011-03-28~2012-03-25

Value:

Hardware: 170.24 billion yen (-0.3%)
Software: 272.28 billion yen (-9.8%)
Overall: 442.52 billion yen (-6.4%)

FY 2010: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=26849533&postcount=290

Famitsu adjusted software for 2010 (again).

 

[Bruno MB]

This year has been very week sales-wise, Mario Kart 7 wouldn't have made it into the top 5 two years ago.

Famitsu 2011 Fiscal Year

1. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 1,607,741
2. [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 1,470,404
3. [3DS] Monster Hunter 3G (Capcom) - 1,289,794
4. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 815,732
5. [PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors (Namco Bandai) - 770,873

Famitsu 2010 Fiscal Year

1. [NDS] Pokemon Black / White (Pokemon Co.) - 5,149,022
2. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 4,372,182
3. [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo) - 1,826,857
4. [NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 (Square Enix) - 1,283,423
5. [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 956,853

Famitsu 2009 Fiscal Year

1. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX (Square Enix) - 4,150,667
2. [NDS] Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver (Pokemon Co.) - 3,663,655
3. [Wii] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 3,587,755
4. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 3,085,838
5. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) - 1,881,972

 

[duckroll]

Yikes. The top end of software for 2011 really does look weak when you put it like that.

 

[sphinx]

You mean like Resident Evil in PAL territories ?

[off-topic] but talking about Germany (and I suspect, the majority of PAL) non-gaming dedicated stores aren't fond, in the least, of Mature titles in nintendo systems, specially handhelds.

I came to the conclusion that stores somply didn't order them because a nintendo handheld is mostly bought by and for underaged gamers so getting more than a few copies of it didn't make much business sense for them. I think the RE:R situation is related to these perception Issues. Same with MGS3D, both are featured in every booklet and demo station for 3DS, meaning Nintnedo did mean to promote them but when it came to the actual product, stores kind of rejected it.

KH3D isn't in this situation, at all, PAL or otherwise[/off-topic]

sorry, back to lurk.

 

[Chris1964]

Media Create White Paper came out today.

 

[frankie_baby]

Media Create White Paper came out today.

Mmmmm lovely delicious numbers we just need someone with lots of money to buy it and post it for us

 

[Erethian]

Yikes. The top end of software for 2011 really does look weak when you put it like that.

Should be a different story for the 2012 fiscal year. Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, and Pokemon at the very least. Maybe Tomodachi Collection if it repeats the success of the original.

 

[frankie_baby]

Should be a different story for the 2012 fiscal year. Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, and Pokemon at the very least. Maybe Tomodachi Collection if it repeats the success of the original.

I dont think tomodachi will be this year, i just cant see it releasing so close to animal crossing

 

[king zell]

Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance (this week biggest release)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/65212/

more releases for the week

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/65204/

 

[electroplankton]

New LKS is out this week? Wow. I fear it will sell nothing.

 

[Mpl90]

New LKS is out this week? Wow. I fear it will sell nothing.

It wouldn't be unprecedented. The original on Wii did around 5k in its first week.

 

[zroid]

I have a good feeling about Kid Icarus maintaining relatively good figures for a while by word-of-mouth. Hope I'm right.

 

[frankie_baby]

New LKS is out this week? Wow. I fear it will sell nothing.

Oh it will sell something, the 9000 people who buy vitas this week have got to buy something

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So... what are the top 10 selling series in japan that aren't nintendo property?

There's a bit of leeway. Like, is it bigger to have one 700K game, two 400K games, or three 300K games? But just looking at overall non-Nintendo/Pokémon sales from DS launch to present and listing series as they show up in descending order:
Monster Hunter
Dragon Quest
Final Fantasy
Inazuma Eleven
Kingdom Hearts
Tamagotchi (hahaha)
Gran Turismo
Winning Eleven
Love & Berry (hahaha)
Layton

Going past 10 to make up for those early DS successes that don't seem at all relevant anymore:
Musou/Warriors
Metal Gear Solid

Yeah, Garaph not working for previous weeks Famitsu charts at the moment,

Sorry about that, noticed it and got it taken care of yesterday. I changed the way weeklyoverview.php handled the URLs with // in them to be more like other newer pages, but put the new bits in out of order and it was trying to use a function before the script had any idea what the function was.

Why did they launch this so early?

Note that this is months later than the Wii version (December). Getting in early is the norm for this series. The 2008 Olympics games released in November 2007 and January 2008.

Prior to the Wii, how was the DS selling compared to all other consoles?

First year? OK. Second year? KABOOM!!

 

[Pai Pai Master]

Oh it will sell something, the 9000 people who buy vitas this week have got to buy something

You're off by roughly 1,030 buyers!

 

[mclem]

Prior to the Wii, how was the DS selling compared to all other consoles?

First year? OK. Second year? KABOOM!!

Not unakin to the 3DS right now, but I assume the scale of KABOOM!! - proportional to other system sales - is smaller?

 

[kassatsu]

Coincidence, or was there a big Sega sale?

Big sega sale. I think it ends next week.