Support NeoGAF

[Chris1964]

Actually he's right: there was nothing for those weeks, combined or separate. I was wondering how that could've slipped, and upon research see we talked about it a little a couple years back. There was some discrepancy between sources for those weeks, you said it seemed like the site and magazine must've had some different numbers, and it would be cleared up when we got half-year hardware totals. So I left them blank for the time being, and forgot to ever come back. I've now filled them in with what Game Data Museum has listed.

Ah, that story. We had figured it out from then.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=22289040&postcount=44

 

[Father_Brain]

The Vita isn't just any product in the market, though. It launched 5 days before this accounting month began. That doesn't guarantee great sales for the Vita, but it is certainly possible for a brand new product to behave differently than the market at large.

I would guess we'll see numbers near those last month (i.e. 200k+). Significantly lower than that would be a very bad sign. Significantly higher than that would be a success. Hitting 200k+ would neither be a good or a bad sign; I sort of expect the real market trends to only be evident in April for this system in the US, but I'm certainly open to being wrong.

I'd be genuinely shocked if Vita's numbers were anywhere near February's; I haven't been convinced by any argument I've seen that Vita won't follow a similar proportionate sales curve to 3DS post-launch. Which would put it around 135K, give or take a few. Any more than 150K, and I'll be surprised.

 

[FoneBone]

I'd be genuinely shocked if Vita's numbers were anywhere near February's; I haven't been convinced by any argument I've seen that Vita won't follow a similar proportionate sales curve to 3DS post-launch. Which would put it around 135K, give or take a few. Any more than 150K, and I'll be surprised.

Especially if the First Edition Bundle actually made up a significant portion of the February total (admittedly, I'm not clear if it did).

 

[frankie_baby]

Sony are idiots if they don't have a plan for this fall. They'll have something surprising coming for sure.

Even if sony do have sonething for this autumn they are still idiots, they needed to be telling people now, not waiting til E3/TGS/the cows come home, they had the perfect chance with the announcement thibg last month but instead chose to show a barely started port of pso2

 

[Father_Brain]

We also have the French numbers to go by, in which nearly two-thirds of Vita's first-month sales were in the first week. Maybe the US sales will prove to be much less frontloaded, but I doubt it.

 

[Opiate]

I'd be genuinely shocked if Vita's numbers were anywhere near February's; I haven't been convinced by any argument I've seen that Vita won't follow a similar proportionate sales curve to 3DS post-launch. Which would put it around 135K, give or take a few. Any more than 150K, and I'll be surprised.

Easily the best explanation is that the Vita has a 5 week month, while the 3DS had 4 weeks.

 

[frankie_baby]

We also have the French numbers to go by, in which nearly two-thirds of Vita's first-month sales were in the first week. Maybe the US sales will prove to be much less frontloaded, but I doubt it.

But then also consider the american first week was in fact sort of 2 due to the pre release bundle thing

 

[Road]

The 3DS averaged 50k per week after the launch week or 12.5% of it.

If the Vita averages the same ratio for five weeks, it's 140k.

Maybe it won't drop as badly as the 3DS, but if it remained over 200k, it's the best news Sony has had this year.

 

[FoneBone]

Easily the best explanation is that the Vita has a 5 week month, while the 3DS had 4 weeks.

I'm pretty sure that Father_Brain's estimate is taking the number of weeks into account.

The 3DS averaged 50k per week after the launch week or 12.5% of it.

If the Vita averages the same ratio for five weeks, it's 140k.

Maybe it won't drop as badly as the 3DS, but if it remained over 200k, it's the best news Sony has had this year.

What he said.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Evil, lol.

 

[donny2112]

Easily the best explanation is that the Vita has a 5 week month, while the 3DS had 4 weeks.

GAF predictions are expecting 156K. I can't work out a scenario wherein Vita sells what it did in February (successor to PSP, so much less popular in U.S. then in Japan, and in Japan, it only just sold again what it did in its launch week; March being down generally; No Easter in March to spur sales; Lots of B2G1 sales the first week for Vita, but not really any afterwards), but we'll hopefully find out tonight either way.

 

[Father_Brain]

The 3DS averaged 50k per week after the launch week or 12.5% of it.

If the Vita averages the same ratio for five weeks, it's 140k.

Maybe it won't drop as badly as the 3DS, but if it remained over 200k, it's the best news Sony has had this year.

I was using 48K/week for the 3DS number, in which case the same math would get you 27K/week for Vita, or 135K in a 5-week month. Basically the same, though, and contra Opiate, I was indeed taking the extra week into account; I'd expect Vita to do around 110K if March had been a four-week month.

 

[Kandinsky]

This thread is getting unbearable, can't wait for the Vita MH announcement.

 

[donny2112]

can't wait for the Vita MH announcement.

What would you expect that announcement to entail as far as the actual game would go, and what would you expect the reaction on Vita sales to be from that same announcement?

 

[Chris1964]

This thread is getting unbearable, can't wait for the Vita MH announcement.

Banned together with BurntPork, came back together with BurntPork. Who will last longer this time.

 

[Salvadora]

What would you expect that announcement to entail as far as the actual game would go, and what would you expect the reaction on Vita sales to be from that same announcement?

Its Kandinsky.

 

[Opiate]

GAF predictions are expecting 156K. I can't work out a scenario wherein Vita sells what it did in February (successor to PSP, so much less popular in U.S. then in Japan, and in Japan, it only just sold again what it did in its launch week; March being down generally; No Easter in March to spur sales; Lots of B2G1 sales the first week for Vita, but not really any afterwards), but we'll hopefully find out tonight either way.

This is compelling reasoning. I may be wrong, then.

 

[Dalthien]

The Vita isn't just any product in the market, though. It launched 5 days before this accounting month began. That doesn't guarantee great sales for the Vita, but it is certainly possible for a brand new product to behave differently than the market at large.

I would guess we'll see numbers near those last month (i.e. 200k+). Significantly lower than that would be a very bad sign. Significantly higher than that would be a success. Hitting 200k+ would neither be a good or a bad sign; I sort of expect the real market trends to only be evident in April for this system in the US, but I'm certainly open to being wrong.

I agree with your general sentiment, but when I said that I don't think it will do too bad in March, I meant that I expect it to keep fairly safely in 6 figures. I wouldn't go so far as to say that I expect it to outsell February though, because I don't. However, I don't think the really bad sub-100k numbers hit until April.

 

[Mpl90]

This thread is getting unbearable, can't wait for the Vita MH announcement.

Be ready for a looooooooong wait.

 

[BurntPork]

http://i.minus.com/iUu8NFG6liUnz.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/qZ91E.png

http://i.minus.com/ibhVyU4MkLi51X.png

http://i.imgur.com/0CY3i.png

Best. Page. Ever.

 

[Kandinsky]

What would you expect that announcement to entail as far as the actual game would go, and what would you expect the reaction on Vita sales to be from that same announcement?

I expect MH4P no less and Vita sales will explode thats for sure.

 

[sphinx]

Be ready for a looooooooong wait.

Am I mistaken or was there the appearance of a MH logo for VITA at some expo or something?

I somehow can't picture Vita not getting a MH game ever in its whole life. Capcom can not be such an asshole.

that would be the biggest backstabbing move in gaming I can think off since FF7 went to PS1 from N64 and remained there exclusive.

I can see games losing exclusivity like FFXIII and RE4 but plain changing platforms and giving the middle finger? I'd be careful if I were capcom to not piss off any hardware makers so blatantly.

 

[BassForever]

Am I mistaken or was there the appearance of a MH logo for VITA at some expo or something?

I somehow can't picture Vita not getting a MH game ever in its whole life. Capcom can not be such an asshole.

that would be the biggest backstabbing move in gaming I can think off since FF7 went to PS1 from N64 and remained there exclusive.

I can see games losing exclusivity like FFXIII and RE4 but plain changing platforms and giving the middle finger? I'd be careful if I were capcom to not piss off any hardware makers so blatantly.

It is Capcpom we're talking about

And there is no garuntee MH Vita would save the system with the 3DS having both MH3G and MH4.

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

Trolling. The Vita heart beat was never that high before the flatline.

 

[frankie_baby]

Am I mistaken or was there the appearance of a MH logo for VITA at some expo or something?

I somehow can't picture Vita not getting a MH game ever in its whole life. Capcom can not be such an asshole.

that would be the biggest backstabbing move in gaming I can think off since FF7 went to PS1 from N64 and remained there exclusive.

I can see games losing exclusivity like FFXIII and RE4 but plain changing platforms and giving the middle finger? I'd be careful if I were capcom to not piss off any hardware makers so blatantly.

But going to vita would've been changing platforms anyway, psp owners arent sheep that would automatically go with the vita, its a new generation so obviously it had to go to a new platform, capcpom chose to put it on the system the believed would sell more

 

[Road]

I was using 48K/week for the 3DS number, in which case the same math would get you 27K/week for Vita, or 135K in a 5-week month. Basically the same, though, and contra Opiate, I was indeed taking the extra week into account; I'd expect Vita to do around 110K if March had been a four-week month.

I didn't see your post when I made mine -- didn't reload before posting.

I just used the round figures for the 3DS 400k and 200k and 225k for the Vita to make my quick math easier. =P

 

[sphinx]

I suspect that something bad happened in those negotiation meetings between Capcom and Sony, (have no proof or anything, just intuition) I guess Sony wanted something Capcom didn't like and thus they are behaving like that.

Something is very odd here because Capcom does not usually behave like this, they support new hardware, they give exclusives to them, they release crossplatform whenever possible (360<->PS3)

Capcom saying back then "MH4 is on 3DS, period" is a huge slap in the face, anyway we look at it and very unlike them.

 

[AceBandage]

I suspect that something bad happened in those negotiation meetings between Capcom and Sony, (have no proof or anything, just intuition) I guess Sony wanted something Capcom didn't like and thus they are behaving like that.

Something is very odd here because Capcom does not usually behave like this, they support new hardware, they give exclusives to them, they release crossplatform whenever possible (360<->PS3)

Capcom saying back then "MH4 is on 3DS, period" is a huge slap in the face, anyway we look at it and very unlike them.

Or maybe it was Nintendo offering something better to Capcom than Sony could/would.

 

[test_account]

http://i.imgur.com/0CY3i.png

Hehe Ok, just one more:

 

[frankie_baby]

I suspect that something bad happened in those negotiation meetings between Capcom and Sony, (have no proof or anything, just intuition) I guess Sony wanted something Capcom didn't like and thus they are behaving like that.

Something is very odd here because Capcom does not usually behave like this, they support new hardware, they give exclusives to them, they release crossplatform whenever possible (360<->PS3)

Capcom saying back then "MH4 is on 3DS, period" is a huge slap in the face, anyway we look at it and very unlike them.

If it came to moneyhats (and we probably never know if it did) the price to sony would undoubtably have been higher than the price to nintendo

 

[sphinx]

Or maybe it was Nintendo offering something better to Capcom than Sony could/would.

absolutely, that too, Iwata never made a secret out of nintendo doing strong efforts to get the IP in their hardware, I think is a mix of events.

all unfortunate for Sony.

If it came to moneyhats (and we probably never know if it did) the price to sony would undoubtably have been higher than the price to nintendo

I'd say that for nintendo it must have been a child's game to secure MH on 3DS. Just offer advertising and maybe even publish in the west and just that is several times more than whatever Sony would have offered.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

As I have said before... still waiting for Capcom to announce this year's Monster Hunter. For all I know, it could be for Vita, so let's calm our tits downe. MH3G was announced three months before its release date, there's still time, not only for Monster Hunter, but other games as well.

And I think TGS will be more important than E3, so we gon have to wait till September before having a concrete opinion on Vita's third-party support.

 

[plufim]

Amazing, Sony learnt absolutely nothing from the first 6 months of the 3DS. They still charged the super high price, and they had no important games to keep momentum up after the launch batch.

 

[test_account]

Amazing, Sony learnt absolutely nothing from the first 6 months of the 3DS. They still charged the super high price, and they had no important games to keep momentum up after the launch batch.

25k yen isnt exactly super high. The problem they faced however is when Nintendo dropped their price from 25k yen to 15k yen, making the difference big.

 

[Dalthien]

Or maybe it was Nintendo offering something better to Capcom than Sony could/would.

Or maybe the 3DS was just a better fit for what Capcom wanted to do with the series.

- the 3DS was perfect in terms of power for what MH needed.
- the year-long headstart for the 3DS meant that the Vita would likely never be a serious challenge to 3DS in terms of userbase
- I said a couple years ago that Capcom would want to bring their top franchises to 3DS early on in order to establish themselves on the platform, because they had the worst performance of any of the top Japanese publishers on the DS
- Nintendo brings a solid publishing/distribution partner to help keep the series growing in the west

Once it was clear that Sony was going to be late with the Vita, there was never much incentive to bring the series to Vita instead of the 3DS, other than it being the successor to PSP. But without backwards compatibility for the millions of MH UMDs out there - even that advantage was largely negated.

 

[AceBandage]

As I have said before... still waiting for Capcom to announce this year's Monster Hunter. For all I know, it could be for Vita, so let's calm our tits downe. MH3G was announced three months before its release date, there's still time, not only for Monster Hunter, but other games as well.

And I think TGS will be more important than E3, so we gon have to wait till September before having a concrete opinion on Vita's third-party support.

Wouldn't it just be a Best Version of 3G with 4 coming out early next year?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

I expect MH4P no less and Vita sales will explode thats for sure.

Or have all the folks wanting a MH game moved to 3DS?

I'd say that for nintendo it must have been a child's game to secure MH on 3DS. Just offer advertising and maybe even publish in the west and just that is several times more than whatever Sony would have offered.

Or lower royalty rates as long as the game is exclusive. That way Nintendo spends no money out of pocket to secure it and Capcom saves more money the more copies they make. Not spending money is the same as making money.

25k yen isnt exactly super high. The problem they faced however is when Nintendo dropped their price from 25k yen to 15k yen, making the difference big.

Don't forget the required memory card purchase.

 

[test_account]

Don't forget the required memory card purchase.

Good point, another ~2k yen to the price, makes the difference even bigger.

 

[saichi]

I can see games losing exclusivity like FFXIII and RE4 but plain changing platforms and giving the middle finger? I'd be careful if I were capcom to not piss off any hardware makers so blatantly.

why would Capcom care if they piss off the hardware maker while they hold the power?

 

[muu]

As I have said before... still waiting for Capcom to announce this year's Monster Hunter. For all I know, it could be for Vita, so let's calm our tits downe. MH3G was announced three months before its release date, there's still time, not only for Monster Hunter, but other games as well.

And I think TGS will be more important than E3, so we gon have to wait till September before having a concrete opinion on Vita's third-party support.

You're mad if you think Capcom's going to spoil the release of their own new game (4) by announcing a similar game on another system before its release, assuming something even exists. Not even Sega does that, seeing as how they avoided announcing the next Miku Diva series before Mirai's launch. Hell, there's probably a higher likelihood of something like a playable MH4 at TGS which ends up taking attention away from whatever support Sony manages to round up.

 

[Nirolak]

Yes, it's hard to tell whether it is because it being on a Nintendo system where KH games have a bad stigma attached to them, or if it is because of franchise fatigue.

The one thing we do know is that it is performing sub-par to other entries in the franchise.

While I think not having a Final Fantasy audience (back when the brand was much stronger) on the platform already like the PSP did didn't help, I have to blame most of this on franchise implosion, and to an extent, publisher implosion.

I feel Square Enix Japan's games have a bit more of a halo effect than most publishers (like how Blizzard and Rockstar games are helped by other titles they make), but that this also works in the opposite direction.

 

[Wazzim]

Be wary that most MH players still play on the PSP.
Sony has the chance to get some love as long as they have their MH game before MH4 (which I doubt).
They could also try to make the game multiplatform, that'd be great for everybody.

 

[Truth101]

While I think not having a Final Fantasy audience (back when the brand was much stronger) on the platform already like the PSP did didn't help, I have to blame most of this on franchise implosion, and to an extent, publisher implosion.

I feel Square Enix Japan's games have a bit more of a halo effect than most publishers (like how Blizzard and Rockstar games are helped by other titles they make), but that this also works in the opposite direction.

I've actually never considered that, it's an interesting idea. Thanks for sharing.

 

[frankie_baby]

Be wary that most MH players still play on the PSP.
Sony has the chance to get some love as long as they have their MH game before MH4 (which I doubt).
They could also try to make the game multiplatform, that'd be great for everybody.

being a psp player now doesnt make them an automatic vita owner in the future and capcpom knows this

 

[GameplayWhore]

25k yen isnt exactly super high. The problem they faced however is when Nintendo dropped their price from 25k yen to 15k yen, making the difference big.

The Playstation Portable debuted at ¥19.8k. The Nintendo DS debuted at ¥15k. It's 25% higher than any mainstream portable line had ever released at and, 3DS aside, 67% higher than any market-winning portable line had ever released at. Maybe it's not super, but it's still a pretty big leap of what we'd had before. I don't think that the Vita would have sold any better had the 3DS not dropped. I think both, in fact, would have continued to sell poorly.

 

[Luigiv]

being a psp player now doesnt make them an automatic vita owner in the future and capcpom knows this

I don't think that's what he's trying to say. I think what he means is that most Monster Hunter players haven't made the generational jump yet. Those guys will go where the games are.

 

[frankie_baby]

I don't think that's what he's trying to say. I think what he means is that most Monster Hunter players haven't made the generational jump yet. Those guys will go where the games are.

but a good chunk of them already have and for a game that relies on local multiplayer it makes sense to send them in the same direction

 

[ShironRedshift]

but a good chunk of them already have and for a game that relies on local multiplayer it makes sense to send them in the same direction

Exactly. Switching to Vita would likely just confuse people, and with the jump from PSP --> 3DS --> Vita would start to make them lose confidence in the idea of buying a new system for the IP due to no knowledge of if it will even stay there beyond that game and not just make another jump back and forth again, potentially leading to the situation we seem to be seeing with Kingdom Hearts here. Granted, at least MonHun doesn't really have to worry about story like KH does, but it's still not a good idea at all, especially when the series is rooted in local multiplayer, and thus such jumps making it more difficult to wind up with the same game and system that your fiends have. Such a strategy is just terribly risky and offers no real inherent rewards over just picking one platform and sticking with it for a while, and releasing everything they have on it, as doing otherwise can ultimately only end up splitting the base and have the sales split between the two platforms instead of getting the whole group (as much as possible) on one and thus each entry getting the full benefit from that.

But really, convoluted or no, I don't get how many people saw the writing on the wall and how Square-Enix messing around with the KH handheld entries was probably a bad idea (due to how what people are interested in are the numbered titles, similar to how the focus in MonHun is actually knowing you'll actually be able to play the games with your friends without risking that you have the game on different systems or something), but think Capcom splitting the MonHun base and trying to develop a MH4 base on the 3DS and a MH P4 base on the Vita or some other such situation wouldn't similarly end up disappointing, at least compared to how they would perform if both were simply put on one or the other and thus drive each other's growth in the time in between them instead of splitting the base between two sytems. It just makes no sense to me, especially when the best you'd be hoping for by putting them on separate systems is essentially just maintaining the status quo anyway--too much risk for no likely potential rewards, so I'm not sure why that would be a strategy that Capcom would want to employ.

 

[Road]

Worth noting that Z2-1 didn't have a digital copy. It's not going to be a huge amount of Z2-2 sales, but just looking at the ratings (which are already more than Gravity Daze which we figured did about 15-20k DD) I wouldn't be surprised if physical + DD is only a slight drop that doesn't matter much.

Media Create reads GAF confirmed:

&#12373;&#12425;&#12395;&#21069;&#20316;&#12302;&#30772;&#30028;&#31687;&#12303;&#12398;&#12480;&#12454;&#12531;&#12525;&#12540;&#12489;&#36009;&#22770;&#12399;&#12497;&#12483;&#12465;&#12540;&#12472;&#29256;&#12363;&#12425;&#32004;1&#24180;&#12434;&#12362;&#12356;&#12390;&#12398;&#12522;&#12522;&#12540;&#12473;&#12384;&#12387;&#12383;&#12398;&#12395;&#23550;&#12375;&#12390;&#12289;&#20170;&#20316;&#12302;&#20877;&#19990;&#31687;&#12303;&#12391;&#12399;&#21516;&#26178;&#30330;&#22770;&#12392;&#12394;&#12387;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12383;&#12417;&#12289;&#12480;&#12454;&#12531;&#12525;&#12540;&#12489;&#29256;&#12408;&#12398;&#27969;&#20837;&#20998;&#12434;&#32771;&#24942;&#12377;&#12428;&#12400;&#12289;&#21069;&#20316;&#12434;&#36092;&#20837;&#12375;&#12383;&#12518;&#12540;&#12470;&#12540;&#12398;&#22810;&#12367;&#12434;&#22258;&#12356;&#36796;&#12416;&#12371;&#12392;&#12395;&#25104;&#21151;&#12375;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12418;&#12398;&#12392;&#25512;&#28204;&#12373;&#12428;&#12427;&#12290;

http://www.m-create.com/ranking/

Preorders

358/2: 90k
DDD: 150K

Comg points

358/2: 588pt
DDD: 241pt

We need a specific comgnet pro to give his lights.

Again:

MC tracked pre-orders

SRWZ2: 124k
SRWZ2-2: 140k

Comgnet:

SRWZ2: 498pt
SRWZ2-2: 413pt



Let's see how it'll be for this:

2008-08 [NDS] Fire Emblem: Shadow Dragon: 68pt (145k first week)
2010-07 [NDS] Fire Emblem: Shin Monshou...: 67pt (136k first week)

6 days left:
2012-04 [3DS] Fire Emblem: Awakening: 128pt

 

[matmanx1]

Stuff

If Capcom thinks they can make good money doing it then they will. That's pretty much the bottom line for any company and any franchise unless you have a very strong creative director at the helm who targets their game at a specific system only and even that practice is quickly going out of style. Costs are simply too high and generally there's less risk by spreading your assets around. I'm sure Capcom will/is weighing the potentials re: MH on other platforms (PS3? PS4? WiiU?, Vita?) and if they feel they can make a profit on it and not break any sort of exclusivity clause (if there is one) then they'll do it.

And in case no one else posted it a reputable Gaf poster (creamsugar) said the Vita did a little over 200k for the month of March in the US which works out to be about 40k a week for the 5 week month.