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Report: Call of Duty sales slowing down, Modern Warfare 3 down year over year

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
It seems that Call of Duty may have finally hit its peak.

Gamasutra said:
Call of Duty sales slow down as casual buyers find entertainment elsewhere
by Frank Cifaldi

Previous analyst predictions were right: it looks like ongoing sales of the annual Call of Duty franchise are beginning to slow down.

Life-to-date sales of 2011's entry Modern Warfare 3 are behind where 2010's Black Ops was at this time last year, despite the former having a stronger debut.

While exact sales numbers are not public, analysts at Macquarie Equities say that Modern Warfare 3 volume sales are behind by around 4.2 percent.

Notably, March sales in particular were damning, with last month's sales of Modern Warfare 3 reportedly less than half the amount that Black Ops sold at that time last year.


Analysts at PiperJaffray say that these numbers cound indicate significant changes in the market: specifically, the firm believes that casual players -- those who don't necessarily purchase a game at launch -- are buying less games at retail, and are instead using their consoles primarily for video streaming and other forms of media consumption.

Webush Securities analyst Michael Pachter added that March's weak performance could indicate that software sales are becoming more reliant on new releases, meaning consumers are less often buying games after their initial debut.

Publisher Activision Blizzard does not rely entirely on boxed retail sales for Call of Duty revenue. In fact, 34 percent of the company's revenue in its last fiscal quarter came from digital sales, much of that from the 1.5 million annual premium subscribers to its Call of Duty Elite service.
Source: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...asual_buyers_find_entertainment_elsewhere.php
 

JWong

Banned
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I don't think anyone really thought it'd be sustainable for much longer.

It'll still sell a lot for the next few iterations though. Assuming it doesn't just immediately crash.
 

wwm0nkey

Member
Was bound to happen eventually. People get tired of paying full price for games with minimal upgrades and worse and worse maps.
 

Hex

Banned
Soo the next batch of sales will only be a few times the gross budget of most third world countries?
 
Quick release 2 mainline games each year, it's the only hope!




needs more next gen


I could see Nextgen being the real turning point (ie decline) in CoD, they will probably have the game across the current consoles 360, PS3, WiiU and the new ones 720, PS4, they won't be able to push things as far technologically or focus on high quality tailored experience.


The sales won't tank but people would find a new hot shit to get into.
 

pramath

Banned
No surprise, MW3 sucked, and it was all the more disappointing after how much fun the consistently exhilarating Black Ops was.
Hopefully Black Ops 2 is a return to form.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
How about... competition? 4.6% moved on to BF3?
 

TriGen

Member
Black Ops 2 and the next CoD after that will probaly sell really well, but I do think this is the start of CoD slowing down.
 
So, like, when I was busy researching for a post about just how aggressively shitty Mass Effect 3 actually is, I discovered that there's actually one game with a worse critic-to-user gap*: Modern Warfare 3.

So, as much as GAF likes to shit on these games in general, I think there really is something to say about the level of quality the COD audience expects from their titles vs. what they actually get. Infinity Ward was a lot less... crowd-pleasing than Treyarch in how they approached these games, but historically they made up for it with a certain level of "quality" that helped elevate the series to where it is now. I'm going to guess that the MW3 that's lacking both halves of that equation (the quality polish of IW and the crowd-pleasing of Treyarch) could actually be crappy enough to get people to start asking why they were paying $60 for the latest year's entry and not getting as much fun as they expected out of it.

*That is, what you get when you subtract the user percentage score on Metacritic from the Metascore.

EDIT:

No surprise, MW3 sucked, and it was all the more disappointing after how much fun the consistently exhilarating Black Ops was.
Hopefully Black Ops 2 is a return to form.

Exactly like this!
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Not surprising to me.

In previous years, the buzz about COD went on all year round. Now there only seems to be buzz shortly before and shortly after a new one gets released.
 

soultron

Banned
It's no wonder. MW3 and BLOPS are at the top of the XBL activity list.

XBL Activity for week of March 26 said:
Most Played Xbox Live Titles Based On Unique Users

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3

2. Call of Duty: Black Ops

3. Fifa 12

4. Battlefield 3

5. Halo: Reach

6. Modern Warfare 2

In my opinion, it seems that this year being sluggish for software and the yearly installments of COD means that sales are cannibalizing themselves.

There's so little to differntiate the core MP experience of COD that it means you don't really need to get the new one. I say this as a washed-out COD addict. I bought every single new one up to and including MW3 and I burnt out faster with every subsequent release. I could've saved myself >$240 if I just stuck to COD4.
 

MrDaravon

Member
Of course, Call of Duty Elite money probably more than makes up the difference.

Modern Warfare 3 online blows. That's why. A lot of people I know got so sick of it they went back to Black Ops.

This and this. Given how fucked Elite STILL is it's pretty embarrassing but has probably made them a fuckton of money from people who probably wouldn't have dropped the full $50 in map packs previously. But yeah, MW3 is just really not as good as Black Ops as unbelievable as I find that (thought WaW was shit). Especially in hindisght Black Ops was just much better balanced and had significantly better netcode; honestly I'd go back as well but MW3 has just kinda bummed me out after about 10 prestiges and I'm just not playing CoD at all.
 
Just in time for a new generation. Will be interesting to see who the new online multiplayer king will be next gen. I can only hope it's not something as predictable as Battlefield.
 

rdrr gnr

Member
I wonder how they will hold going into next gen. I really do think the brand is still ridiculously strong. Get new hardware and a new engine and I think the franchise will continue its dominance early into next gen.
 

soultron

Banned
Just in time for a new generation. Will be interesting to see who the new online multiplayer king will be next gen. I can only hope it's not something as predictable as Battlefield.

The core mechanics of COD are being changed up for the next title, so it might be COD all over again.

Trying to find the quote right now. Will link if I can find it.
 

Eusis

Member
Infinity Ward was a lot less... crowd-pleasing than Treyarch in how they approached these games, but historically they made up for it with a certain level of "quality" that helped elevate the series to where it is now.
This leads me to wonder if we'll see Black Ops 2 (or whatever) manage to surpass BO's peak performance, and thus end up making Activision re-evaluate how to approach the series rather than it actually going down. At this point it really could be better to treat it as a bi-annual event and just get even more map packs made for each Treyarch game rather than keep the shell of IW producing installments. Or they'll just groom Sledgehammer into taking IW's old place if not outright absorb what's left of them.

I'd love it if the series fell from its heights though, even if it stays around. Hell, I'd PREFER it stay around, I just don't want it (and perhaps Battlefield) to represent the pinnacle of game sales and to be what everyone strives for. Even if it does risk having something less desirable pop up, but that too would fade in time.
 

Auto_aim1

MeisaMcCaffrey
They should make Treyarch the A team now lol.

But seriously, it was sort of unrealistic to expect each Call of Duty instalment to outperform its predecessor, considering there wasn't a lot of leap in tech and the level of gameplay offered was mostly similar. I don't really think Black Ops 2 will do much better than Modern Warfare 3, the series has peaked and will decline now. Incredible achievement though. Things might change next-gen but I doubt it.
 

Guevara

Member
This reminds me I still need to buy MW3 to finish the Modern Warfare story arc. I guess I can safely wait for a sale.
 
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