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Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2012 (Oct 22 - Oct 28)

I expected MH on 3DS. What I didn't expect was for there to be no parallel Vita announcement in the later Sony conference. That's what really took me by surprise.


Since then I've thought more about the benefits of single platform in Japan for local multiplayer, but I hadn't thought that through back then, and that *really* surprised me at the time.

That's what I wrote. Some people expected a MH on 3DS (3G was hinted before) but no one really expected the IP would have been a Nintendo exclusive for so long, with a mainline 4th episode as well.
 
http://www.siliconera.com/2012/10/3...-for-monster-hunter-4-re6-drops-to-6-million/

So 2M in less than one month. Let's go Capgod!

Famitsu Biggest 3DS FW:
Dragon Quest Monsters 3D - 488,508

Famitsu Biggest 3DS LTD:
Mario Kart 7 - 1.817.821

After Dragon Quest VII, 3DS might well be over 10 million units so Monster Hunter 4 could reach a very high mark to begin with; I'm not sure if 2 million units are possible in a few weeks, though, but I can see starting at over 1 million units the first week.
 

LayLa

Member
from Garaph

Atelier Rorona: Alchemist of Arland 83,680
Atelier Totori: The Alchemist of Arland 2 110,836
Atelier Meruru: The Alchemist of Arland 3 140,412

with Atelier Ayesha at 120k then you could either see it as a drop off from the last game or a good start to the new trilogy. spin how you like!
 
Even though you make some solid points, I completely disagree with your conclusion that the Video Game Industry is crashing, is the complete opposite that's true. Gaming is booming however its now more diverse than ever before and the profits for the industry and coming from multiple avenues that aren't reported on NPD group public reports. Steam/IOS/f2p/Facebook/xbla/Psn/Gree/GOG/origin/etc.

Facebook gaming? Already burst, look at Zynga. f2p? has to show it can create profits and not only revenues. XBLA/PSN? Sony and MS aren't reporting bigger profits because of these new distribution platforms and the companies releasing games on it neither do. Steam/GOG/Origin? EA reports loss after loss every quarter and nobody knows how many games are sold on Steam or GOG, we only know, the games, that generate the biggest revenues for these platforms come from the same companies as in retail and the revenues of these companies are down, as are their profits.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Facebook gaming? Already burst, look at Zynga. f2p? has to show it can create profits and not only revenues. XBLA/PSN? Sony and MS aren't reporting bigger profits because of these new distribution platforms and the companies releasing games on it neither do. Steam/GOG/Origin? EA reports loss after loss every quarter and nobody knows how many games are sold on Steam or GOG, we only know, the games, that generate the biggest revenues for these platforms come from the same companies as in retail and the revenues of these companies are down, as are their profits.
Eventhough EA is big, what about all the other game companies? I dont think that all of them are reporting loss after loss. Some companies have had problems for sure, but the whole game market is not crashing. People are still very interested in playing games.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
After Dragon Quest VII, 3DS might well be over 10 million units so Monster Hunter 4 could reach a very high mark to begin with; I'm not sure if 2 million units are possible in a few weeks, though, but I can see starting at over 1 million units the first week.

It also depends on when it'll be released. If it's released in the first week of March ( or even during the second one), then there are pretty good possibilities for MH4 to reach 2 millions shipped until the end of March.
 

Cuddler

Member
I think that they will have much more focus on a multimedia box. It already happened with PS3 and Xbox 360, yet the gaming side is still very strong.

Speaking about multimedia, any words on the sales of how Nasne PS3 is selling?

I was talking more about a new type of controller, being a multimedia box is something everyone expect from the PS4/720. No news about the sales of Nasne that I'm aware of.

MS could just include a Kinect that actually works, & Sony can have an Eye-Toy 3(which would be another good way of making sure they get full multi-platform support), but I would think they will both push the "normal" console things alongside its media capabilities.
Absolutely, I was just talking about the possibility that both the new Kinect or the Eye-Toy 3 (or something completely new and unexpected) can change things about the sales of the console.
 
Facebook gaming? Already burst, look at Zynga. f2p? has to show it can create profits and not only revenues. XBLA/PSN? Sony and MS aren't reporting bigger profits because of these new distribution platforms and the companies releasing games on it neither do. Steam/GOG/Origin? EA reports loss after loss every quarter and nobody knows how many games are sold on Steam or GOG, we only know, the games, that generate the biggest revenues for these platforms come from the same companies as in retail and the revenues of these companies are down, as are their profits.

Zynga is dreadfully run. They have some great assets, and good revenue coming in but for some unknown fucking reason they have like 30 developers and massive costs. Its insane.

EA? Dreadfully run. Like terribly.

Still, theres big profits out there. The idea the industry is crashing is silly.
Also F2P is a new business model, it works for some and for others it doesn't. Why? Because its a difficult business model to get right and some people don't understand it. Thats not an industry crash, thats just people trying new things.
 

Takao

Banned
Take2 is like the worst run third party company though. How in the world can a company that sells that many games continually lose money.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
I was talking more about a new type of controller, being a multimedia box is something everyone expect from the PS4/720. No news about the sales of Nasne that I'm aware of.
I ment more that the focus might be more as an universal box. Like focusing that this is the only device you need for all your gaming and multimedia things, meaning that it wont be looked upon more as a traditional gaming console.

As for the controllers, i think it will be something optional. I hope that there will be a standard type controller as the main controller.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Take2 is like the worst run third party company though. How in the world can a company that sells that many games continually lose money.

Well, to be fair, revenue from multiplayer games has to be recognized evenly over the expected lifetime of the game's online mode, so you're going to lose money when you're marketing and releasing games and make money when you're releasing nothing since you have no costs, but a ton of deferred revenue.

Your costs only reflect your sales in the same quarter if you make almost exclusively singleplayer titles.

That said, Take-Two still has horrible management, but losing money in the quarter they release games is pretty normal.

I wouldn't be surprised if they lose hundreds of millions when GTA V comes out due to this.
 
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=379025022172166&id=173822029359134

Bravely Default - 1.9GB

They weren't planning to release Bravely Default on the eShop, but were forced to as supply couldn't meet demand.

After Dragon Quest VII, 3DS might well be over 10 million units so Monster Hunter 4 could reach a very high mark to begin with; I'm not sure if 2 million units are possible in a few weeks, though, but I can see starting at over 1 million units the first week.
The legendary MHP3:

1. 2,146,467 (Nov 29)
2. 514,198 (Dec 06)
3. 434,837 (Dec 13)
= 3,095,502

I think Capcom will have to overship the game to meet their forecast, I can see MH4 doing ~1.5M in three weeks. A bit over 3M LTD.
 

Takao

Banned
Well, to be fair, revenue from multiplayer games has to be recognized evenly over the expected lifetime of the game's online mode, so you're going to lose money when you're marketing and releasing games and make money when you're releasing nothing since you have no costs, but a ton of deferred revenue.

Your costs only reflect your sales in the same quarter if you make almost exclusively singleplayer titles.

Can you explain to me what exactly that means? It was mentioned in the EA report thread as well but I'm not sure I completely follow. Is revenue generated from online content not reported as it is earned? So lets say the latest Call of Duty DLC is downloaded ___ million times for ___ million in revenue within a span of one quarter. Instead of reporting that revenue in that quarter's report Activision has to spread it for as long as they think the game will be active online?
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
The legendary MHP3:

1. 2,146,467 (Nov 29)
2. 514,198 (Dec 06)
3. 434,837 (Dec 13)
= 3,095,502

I think Capcom will have to overship the game to meet their forecast, I can see MH4 doing ~1.5M in three weeks. A bit over 3M LTD.

You post numbers for three weeks of short supply.
 

BowieZ

Banned
So according to my crude calculations, at this rate (of 3DS being 40,000 ahead of PS3 every week), it'll take 18 more weeks for 3DS LTD to catch up to PS3's LTD i.e. early March 2013 [thus 2 years lifetime vs over 6 years lifetime]

Does this sound accurate? Or will 3DS zoom stratospherically ahead through the holiday?
 

zroid

Banned
They weren't planning to release Bravely Default on the eShop, but were forced to as supply couldn't meet demand.

760779_o.gif


It's very interesting to know it's that easy to get a game on the eShop. Within a couple of weeks the decision was made and the game was released.
 
Capcom must be aiming for MH4>MHP3 though - there now on a Nintendo system, they've converged the userbase and will be looking to also sell to non-traditional MH fans.

Am not saying by a massive margin but by the time MH4 comes out. On the week MH3P came out the PSP had 16m LTD; 3DS will possibly be above or around 10m by MH4.

I know were not talking LTD; but I still think Capcom will be disappointed if sales are not similar to portable 3.

2m in one month certainly seems achievable.


Also good to hear that Square were able to get BD on eshop pretty quickly when they need to. Shame the sales will be skewed but what can you do.
 
So what's the buzz in Japan in anticipation for MH4? Are they going apeshit and 2M by the end of March is looking good? That's an incredible achievement considering that would be the highest seller LTD.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Can you explain to me what exactly that means? It was mentioned in the EA report thread as well but I'm not sure I completely follow. Is revenue generated from online content not reported as it is earned? So lets say the latest Call of Duty DLC is downloaded ___ million times for ___ million in revenue within a span of one quarter. Instead of reporting that revenue in that quarter's report Activision has to spread it for as long as they think the game will be active online?
Not quite. Let me get the text and then explain.

EA said:
Change in Deferred Net Revenue (Packaged Goods and Digital Content). Electronic Arts is not able to objectively determine the fair value of the online service included in certain of its packaged goods and digital content. As a result, the Company recognizes the revenue from the sale of these games and content over the estimated online service period. In other transactions, at the date we sell the software product we have an obligation to provide incremental unspecified digital content in the future without an additional fee. In these cases, we account for the sale of the software product as a multiple element arrangement and recognize the revenue on a straight-line basis over the estimated period of game play. Internally, Electronic Arts' management excludes the impact of the change in deferred net revenue related to packaged goods games and digital content in its non-GAAP financial measures when evaluating the Company's operating performance, when planning, forecasting and analyzing future periods, and when assessing the performance of its management team. The Company believes that excluding the impact of the change in deferred net revenue from its operating results is important to (1) facilitate comparisons to prior periods during which the Company was able to objectively determine the fair value of the online service and not delay the recognition of significant amounts of net revenue related to online-enabled packaged goods and (2) understanding our operations because all related costs are expensed as incurred instead of deferred and recognized ratably.

So, basically, the following situation arrives.

Let's say that EA decides that, after analyzing accounting rules, that Battlefield 3's online component should be considered to have an expected lifetime of three years, because after that a minimal number of players will play the game for more than three years after purchase, even if the servers are left online. This means that the revenue gotten from Battlefield 3 must be divided by 12 (three years with four quarters each), and only 1/12th of the revenue the game makes can be counted in the quarter it releases. The reason this happens is because when EA sells you a game with multiplayer, they are technically providing you with a service, and can't count all of the revenue until that service is delivered in full.

However, costs will be counted immediately because costs aren't deferred, since no continuing service is being provided from EA spending marketing dollars or printing discs.

This gives us the following math if EA sells 15 million full priced copies of Battlefield 3 in a single quarter:

Revenue: $48/game (we subtract the retailer markup) * 15,000,000 copies / 12 quarters = $60 million per quarter for the next three years. This is despite the fact that in reality they made $720 million in revenue this quarter.

Cost: $12 per disc (console licensing fee plus physical cost) * 15,000,000 copies + $100,000,000 in marketing = -$280,000,000

So, while in reality EA made ($720 M - $280 M) = $440,000,000 of profit in this scenario, by GAAP rules, they had ($60 M - $280 M) = $220,000,000 in losses for the quarter.

Now, if we hit the April-June 2012 where EA released nothing, if we just take costs related to Battlefield 3, they made $60 million in profit on the game with zero costs by GAAP, even if they sold zero copies.

This is why companies with online games make money in the quarters where they release nothing, but lose money in the quarters where they release their biggest games.
 

Tenki

Member
So according to my crude calculations, at this rate (of 3DS being 40,000 ahead of PS3 every week), it'll take 18 more weeks for 3DS LTD to catch up to PS3's LTD i.e. early March 2013 [thus 2 years lifetime vs over 6 years lifetime]

Does this sound accurate? Or will 3DS zoom stratospherically ahead through the holiday?

It'll be before March, probably during holidays. 3DS is going to sell way more than just 40k more than PS3 per week.
 
at the date we sell the software product we have an obligation to provide incremental unspecified digital content in the future without an additional fee

Right so because EA will have ongoing costs of providing the online service over lets say 2 years; they'll have to take the profit out of that time period. Otherwise it'd be BIG PROFITS then a lot of ongoing losses I suppose. Makes sense.

So the profits basically go into the balance sheet and get taken out each quarter to pay for the service then becoming what they can actually call a profit or loss.
 

Cuddler

Member
I ment more that the focus might be more as an universal box. Like focusing that this is the only device you need for all your gaming and multimedia things, meaning that it wont be looked upon more as a traditional gaming console.

As for the controllers, i think it will be something optional. I hope that there will be a standard type controller as the main controller.

I still don't think that being a universal box can make a big difference. As for the controllers, optional is not the right way if you really believe in your idea, you have to sell it to everyone (like with the Wii and the Wii U). I hope too that the main controller will be a standard type, and I think some games will be playable only with the new controller, some games only with the standard and in other games one can choose which one to use.
 

jimmypython

Member
2M for MH4 is reasonable if not underestimated. The mass MH population should have already realized 3DS is THE MH machine at this point
 
Not quite.

...

This is why companies with online games make money in the quarters where they release nothing, but lose money in the quarters where they release their biggest games.

Thanks for this. This always had me scratching my head, but it now makes perfect sense.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
2 million shipment for MH4 seems low unless it only counts as the initial shipment with release date last week of March.
 

piteru

Banned
Do we know if Capcom is going to have a digital version of mh4 with the release of the game?also one offtopic question:up to how many sd gbs is the 3ds compatible?32? If I was living in japan I would go digital crazy!
 
Do we know if Capcom is going to have a digital version of mh4 with the release of the game?also one offtopic question:up to how many sd gbs is the 3ds compatible?32? If I was living in japan I would go digital crazy!

We don't, but I'd say it's a lock. Bravely Default, AKB48+Me, and soon (probably) MH3G will be on the eshop.
 
from Garaph

Atelier Rorona: Alchemist of Arland 83,680
Atelier Totori: The Alchemist of Arland 2 110,836
Atelier Meruru: The Alchemist of Arland 3 140,412

with Atelier Ayesha at 120k then you could either see it as a drop off from the last game or a good start to the new trilogy. spin how you like!

It's also worth noting that Ayesha is year to date, and the other three are end-of-year. Ayesha still has the holiday coming up, which I could see pushing another easy 10k copies. It'll end up in sneezing distance of Meruru when all is said and done, so a very good performance for Ayesha. Curious to see what they do next with the franchise, though, since without spoiling much the "Land of Twilight" setting sort of doesn't lend itself overly well to sequels.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
I just want more good news.

Yes, same here - but i guess it wont be doing too bad :)

btw. With retailers already selling Animal Crossing eShop cards, could the game end up in the charts even before its actual release ?
 
btw. With retailers already selling Animal Crossing eShop cards, could the game end up in the charts even before its actual release ?

Is it 100% confirmed that the charts even count these?
Interesting use of the cards though - that actually works well for a good pre-order market; whereas buying the card over just online or physical was more hassle.
 
We don't, but I'd say it's a lock. Bravely Default, AKB48+Me, and soon (probably) MH3G will be on the eshop.

In fairness, Bravely Default wasn't planned; they stuck it on the eShop when they couldn't get enough physical cartridges out.

I agree that it's very likely that MH4 gets a digital release, though.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
No word from SE about the first sales of BD on the eShop?

The closest thing we'll get is if Square Enix decides the game did well enough to brag about in their fiscal release on the 5th.

It's unlikely we will get a breakdown, but someone here might have the total retail shipment, from which you can work backwards.
 
Yes, same here - but i guess it wont be doing too bad :)

btw. With retailers already selling Animal Crossing eShop cards, could the game end up in the charts even before its actual release ?

We don't even know if they are tracked. Considering they aren't sold in every shop the margin of error may be too big to estimate correctly.
 

vareon

Member
I feel Bravely Default getting eShop treatment is multiple good news:

- The demand is still high.
- Square Enix responds to the demand, which means they're treating this new IP carefully.
- It's probably not that hard to get an existing game to have an eShop version.
 
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