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[thiscoldblack]

Isn't this the same thing people said when the 3DS was released?

Wii U is a great console and feels like a different experience (at least to me). It only needs to be more affordable and have more games. Give it time.

 

[Vinci]

I dont think NSMBU is different enough from the Wii game to be a system seller. Same with Wii Fit U. What is a system seller for Wii U is a strong lineup of strong, appeal to all ages games such as 3D Mario

I'm not saying it's impossible that 3D Mario might be the thing Nintendo needs. Just saying that historically that hasn't been the case.

 

[muu]

This dude said the 3ds and wii was fucked
How do he still have a job and get threads made about him?

Predictions fail all the time. And besides, it's not like he's any worse than most any other analyst of a specific sector: they know a little more than the average joe but it's still a crap shoot whether their 8-ball spits out anything useful.

 

[Cheebo]

Isn't this the same thing people said when the 3DS was released?

3DS hasn't hit a single sales target, is on a year over year downward trajectory hardware sales wises and software sales completely collapsed over the past year.

3Ds is in a bad place right now in the west.

This dude said the 3ds and wii was fucked.
How is he still getting threads made about what he says? How do he still have a job? What a hack.

He is right about the 3Ds, its a mess in the west and struggling. Last months sales in Jan were lower than DS ever was. And lower than 3ds was last year.

 

[goomba]

Seriously is pachter a joke character ?

He reminds me of Stephen colberts conservative persona.

 

[EricDiesel]

They'll recover. They recovered from the Gamecube, they can recover from this. They'll probably turn it around somehow. If their next piece of hardware sees these kind of numbers, then I'll worry.

 

[gamergirly]

This dude said the 3ds and wii was fucked.
How is he still getting threads made about what he says? How do he still have a job? What a hack.

Iwata came out and said in a Nintendo Direct not that long ago, indicating CLEARLY that Nintendo would have no new games for Wii U for the first 2 months of this year. The way these months are being scrutinized and heavily discussed indicates a false sense of long-term Wii U success or failure. We all know after the rough start in November and December that Wii U was going to have a bad January and February given what Iwata said. If a heavy hitter like Mario Kart had just been released last week and sold 10,000 units(as an example), then we should be more worried

 

[JoeM86]

3DS hasn't hit a single sales target, is on a year over year downward trajectory hardware sales wises and software sales completely collapsed over the past year.

3Ds is in a bad place right now in the west.

Winter 2012 didn't exactly have the most compelling software to encourage sales, and it still managed to do well, albeit not amazingly.

Winter 2013 will be coming off the release of the next generation of Pokémon. This downward trend (one instance doesn't make a trend) is undoubtedly going to end

 

[Cheebo]

They'll recover. They recovered from the Gamecube, they can recover from this

They had GBA to mitigate the GCN last time. 3DS is no GBA.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

- I mostly respond in his threads regarding Nintendo and for the most part it's always doomed vs. not doomed as well as they'll be fine once their games come out, so I tend not to bother making the same points every time. It's no secret that the Wii-U isn't doing good atm. Nintendo had their big direct but that isn't going to make everyone go out and buy one right away. People are going to wait until these titles are released before they purchase one. Now if they still have poor sales after this holiday when they've released some heavy hitters it would be a different story, but this is just another preposterous statement by him.

I don't really agree that you have to wait to make to make a prediction. If I say "I don't think the holiday games are going to turn the Wii U around; this start is just too bad," it's very well possible that I might be wrong. But why is that a terribly irresponsible prediction. Part of analysis involves making predictions about trends, and even good (i.e. for the sake of the argument lets just refer to the non-Pachters here) analysts get stuff wrong. It's just something you keep in mind the next time they make a prediction if you're keeping score.

Like if someone wanted to know what I thought, my own gut reaction is that we'll probably see middling results this holiday season. I think they might be able to assuage some of the people that think it's time to just pull the plug on the Wii U, but I honestly don't think they're going to set the charts on fire and turn it into an unarguable success.

So, if the Wii U goes on to be the clear winner of the holiday season, I'll be wrong should someone have this post handy. "Hey, Youngblood, remember when you didn't expect the Wii U to have a great holiday season? Well, guess who was wrong!"

But that wrong prediction wouldn't somehow make me an irresponsible idiot.

 

[kodt]

If GAF hates Patcher so much, why do you keep making threads about him?

 

[goomba]

They had GBA to mitigate the GCN last time. 3DS is no GBA.

3DS is easily on track to outsell the GBA...

 

[Vinci]

Frankly, it's a bit early to be making any long-term speculations. For all we know, Nintendo will release a game that does amazingly well on the 3DS and help it recover in the West, thus limiting its risk from the Wii U's difficulties. Or perhaps there will be a Wii U game that improves its position a bit.

We're still a bit early yet and there are still some heavy hitters yet to stage. I would say that I think the Wii U is in spectacularly worse shape than the 3DS is, though, and can imagine the former scenario more easily than the latter.

 

[Cheebo]

Winter 2012 didn't exactly have the most compelling software to encourage sales, and it still managed to do well, albeit not amazingly.

Winter 2013 will be coming off the release of the next generation of Pokémon. This downward trend (one instance doesn't make a trend) is undoubtedly going to end

Christmas 2012 for 3DS was weaker than DS ever did in it's lifetime (pre-3DS) and weaker than GBA ever had in it's life time (pre-DS).

Same with this month's January sales.

It isn't a one time trend. It has been going on month after month for nearly the entire past year. The gap between GBA and 3DS (it isn't even fair to try to compare 3DS to DS anymore) is growing wider and wider.

3DS is easily on track to outsell the GBA...

It won't reach the 80 mil+ GBA did unless it has a turn-around to stop the bleeding of lower and lower sales. But that is not the main issue. Software sales are way way way lower than GBA had.

 

[Sendou]

Nintendo could probably drop support for Wii U tomorrow and still "survive". It's an extremely broad term.

 

[RibMan]

While Pachter's hardware predictions are often questionable, I think he raises a very good point when he says:

their handheld business can't save them in the face of cannibalization from smartphones and tablets.

Nintendo run the very real risk of being in a position where the success or failure of the 3DS will determine the future of the Wii U. Some may argue that they're already in such a position.

From both a business and creative perspective, I think 2013 will be one of the more challenging years for Nintendo. I disagree with Lewis Ward; I don't think a "pump out more games" strategy will be enough for the Wii U. Especially in the face of new hardware from the competition.

I've said this before, but if both Sony and Microsoft get their next consoles "wrong" then Nintendo will have a lot of breathing room. But if they get it right, then Nintendo will need to have a very very strong E3 conference.

 

[SykoTech]

While I do believe they'll lose the dominance they had during the previous gen (sales-wise anyway), "never recover from"?

Sounds overly dramatic to me.

 

[ari]

Wii u have no system sellers. Period. That's all they need honestly.

Plenty of people will eat up a new zelda, a mario thats not 2d, smash bros and monster hunter.

 

[Glass Rebel]

3DS is easily on track to outsell the GBA...

Hardware sales aren't the issue (yet) but software.

 

[Terrell]

All we need is him saying that the Vita will survive and we'll know the Reverse Pachter theory is true.
And we know he will say it.

However, not all experts are so down on Nintendo's chances of recovering.

youdontsay.jpg


Pachter and journalists spouting all the WiiU doom and gloom are equally as guilty of the "echo chamber" effect NeoGAF is accused of. So it's no surprise that people who aren't in the echo chamber see a recovery possible.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Frankly, it's a bit early to be making any long-term speculations. For all we know, Nintendo will release a game that does amazingly well on the 3DS and help it recover in the West, thus limiting its risk from the Wii U's difficulties. Or perhaps there will be a Wii U game that improves its position a bit.

I think it's too early to make any long term predictions and expect them to be weighted with any meaningful degree of certainty. But I also don't think it's grossly irresponsible to speculate based on what we know. I'm not ready to make a ban bet (or significant money bet) about the lifetime Wii U numbers or anything, but I don't feel uncomfortable being very skeptical about the system's prospects at this point.

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

The Wii U is not going to replicate the success of the Wii. The best Nintendo can do is ride this generation out and hope to minimize their losses. At worst, they'll have to ditch the platform and start over.

 

[Baconsammy]

Wii u have no system sellers. Period. That's all they need honestly.

So now all of a sudden 2D Mario has been taken off the list of system sellers?

 

[ari]

So now all of a sudden 2D Mario has been taken off the list of system sellers?

Anything else worth picking up?

 

[Steve Youngblood]

The Wii U is not going to replicate the success of the Wii. The best Nintendo can do is ride this generation out and hope to minimize their losses. At worst, they'll have to ditch the platform and start over.

It's worth noting that this isn't reasonably considered the metric for success.

 

[Vinci]

I think it's too early to make any long term predictions and expect them to be weighted with any meaningful degree of certainty. But I also don't think it's grossly irresponsible to speculate based on what we know. I'm not ready to make a ban bet (or significant money bet) about the lifetime Wii U numbers or anything, but I don't feel uncomfortable being very skeptical about the system's prospects at this point.

I'm not saying you cannot do it. Hell, I did it. Just that it's a bit early to go all-in on a prediction. Discussing one's viewpoints about the future health of the platform is totally fine, especially if it leads to discussions about industry ramifications and how the industry itself is changing, how it might impact Sony and MS's systems, etc. Anything that adds to a wealth of intelligent discussion is more than fine.

But some people coming in here and going, "Yup. They're dead," or being overwhelmingly dreamy about their prospects, or doing the "Pachter = dumb, bizarro land" game? Not very interesting.

 

[miksar]

1. What, precisely, is your definition of a "real gamer"?
2. Are owners of Nintendo hardware automatically precluded from being part of said definition?

A real gamer is someone who considers video games to be more than just a futile exercise in jumping from one platform to another. Someone who realizes its potential as an art form, someone who supports constant innovation and ingenuity shown by the best artists in the industry. Unfortunately such companies as Nintendo keep thinking that video games are for man children unable to distinguish real works from cheap reproductions. But as the numbers lately show, they are a dying breed. Soon they will be an insignificant minority forever trapped in their own unfullfilled fantasies of plumbers having an affair with dumb-looking blond girls.

Of course you can simultaneously have a Nintendo console and be a real gamer as most likely you own at least one since childhood. But when you reach puberty, you realize there is more to life and upgrade to better, more mature gaming systems that show the potential of gaming in its true form.

 

[KojiKnight]

Glad to hear they'll recover from it.

Oh I see what you did there. You're a clever one

I wouldn't trust Pachter to tell me if it was going to rain today if he was standing outside, staring straight up into the sky as rain was pouring onto his face.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Pachter and journalists spouting all the WiiU doom and gloom are equally as guilty of the "echo chamber" effect NeoGAF is accused of. So it's no surprise that people who aren't in the echo chamber see a recovery possible.

The "echo chamber" is when a community segregates itself off into tighter space and feeds off of each others fantasies to create an entirely fictionalised version of reality that everyone there simply accepts due to no challengers.

Pachter and NeoGAF proclaimers of "WiiU doomed" are looking at real sales figures from around the world dropping harder and faster than the Gamecube ever did. Thats reality.

Nintendo as whole isnt doomed, thats stupid. They have like 10 billion just to coast on. The future of there ever being another home console from Nintendo that isn't a portable? Thats in serious question.

 

[Vinci]

A real gamer is someone who considers video games to be more than just a futile exercise in jumping from one platform to another. Someone who realizes its potential as an art form, someone who supports constant innovation and ingenuity shown by the best artists in the industry. Unfortunately such companies as Nintendo keep thinking that video games are for man children unable to distinguish real works from cheap reproductions. But as the numbers lately show, they are a dying breed. Soon they will be an insignificant minority forever trapped in their own unfullfilled fantasies of plumbers having an affair with dumb-looking blond girls.

Of course you can simultaneously have a Nintendo console and be a real gamer as most likely you own at least one since childhood. But when you reach puberty, you realize there is more to life and upgrade to better, more mature gaming systems that show the potential of gaming in its true form.

Awesome post. Such subtlety of arrogance and pretension without being annoying.

 

[IceDoesntHelp]

Honestly, I think Nintendo will be fine. Wait 'till next holiday season, then we'll talk.

 

[Interceptor]

It´s 2006 all over again. I was really worried about the Wii U but thanks to his patchness i can sleep again.

 

[AZ Greg]

A real gamer is someone who considers video games to be more than just a futile exercise in jumping from one platform to another. Someone who realizes its potential as an art form, someone who supports constant innovation and ingenuity shown by the best artists in the industry. Unfortunately such companies as Nintendo keep thinking that video games are for man children unable to distinguish real works from cheap reproductions. But as the numbers lately show, they are a dying breed. Soon they will be an insignificant minority forever trapped in their own unfullfilled fantasies of plumbers having an affair with dumb-looking blond girls.

Of course you can simultaneously have a Nintendo console and be a real gamer as most likely you own at least one since childhood. But when you reach puberty, you realize there is more to life and upgrade to better, more mature gaming systems that show the potential of gaming in its true form.

Still not sure...

 

[Plinko]

Wii u have no system sellers. Period. That's all they need honestly.

Plenty of people will eat up a new zelda, a mario thats not 2d, smash bros and monster hunter.

No offense, but 2D Mario has traditionally outsold 3D Mario by a fairly large margin.

 

[ozfunghi]

.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Pachter, a mistake humanity may never recover from.

So, do you think the Wii U is well-positioned and destined for great sales?

 

[WiiredShawn]

When I have enough money, I will buy a Wii U and I will play games on it and I will likely have fun. That's mainly what matters and if Nintendo can convince enough people to feel the same way, they will be fine.

They need stronger marketing, more opportunities for the general public to "get" the machine, and a healthier variety of games, perhaps one or two that will really catch the attention of casual players. These are all within the realm of possibility, and thus, their situation is hardly unrecoverable.

 

[XenodudeX]

A real gamer is someone who considers video games to be more than just a futile exercise in jumping from one platform to another. Someone who realizes its potential as an art form, someone who supports constant innovation and ingenuity shown by the best artists in the industry. Unfortunately such companies as Nintendo keep thinking that video games are for man children unable to distinguish real works from cheap reproductions. But as the numbers lately show, they are a dying breed. Soon they will be an insignificant minority forever trapped in their own unfullfilled fantasies of plumbers having an affair with dumb-looking blond girls.

Of course you can simultaneously have a Nintendo console and be a real gamer as most likely you own at least one since childhood. But when you reach puberty, you realize there is more to life and upgrade to better, more mature gaming systems that show the potential of gaming in its true form.

What the fuck is this garbage.

 

[Terrell]

The "echo chamber" is when a community segregates itself off into tighter space and feeds off of each others fantasies to create an entirely fictionalised version of reality that everyone there simply accepts due to no challengers.

Pachter and NeoGAF proclaimers of "WiiU doomed" are looking at real sales figures from around the world dropping harder and faster than the Gamecube ever did. Thats reality.

Nintendo as whole isnt doomed, thats stupid. They have like 10 billion just to coast on. The future of there ever being another home console from Nintendo that isn't a portable? Thats in serious question.

3 months. Dead in 3 months.

If I could judge the future of anything that quickly, I'd have a lot of free time on my hands.

Heck, I didn't even judge the Vita that quickly, I gave that a whole year before I declared time of death. And that is arguably a worse situation than Wii U by a country mile.

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

Good, then I'll counter act your survey by saying Best Paper Mario to date!

Do you really believe that?

 

[liger05]

The thing is even if the wii u was a complete failure it's not going to send the company out of business. This is no Sega.

 

[maquiladora]

.

You might want to read Evilore's stickied thread about attacking people for their positions.

 

[Sandfox]

Even if the Wii U never takes off I wouldn't go as far to say that Nintendo will never recover from it.

The thing is even if the wii u was a complete failure it's not going to send the company out of business. This is no Sega.

Sega is doing really well now so having their kind of problem isn't exactly a death sentence either.

 

[farnham]

Nsmbu is a system seller yes. However you need more than one game to get people to shell out 350$

 

[WiiredShawn]

A real gamer is someone who considers video games to be more than just a futile exercise in jumping from one platform to another. Someone who realizes its potential as an art form, someone who supports constant innovation and ingenuity shown by the best artists in the industry. Unfortunately such companies as Nintendo keep thinking that video games are for man children unable to distinguish real works from cheap reproductions. But as the numbers lately show, they are a dying breed. Soon they will be an insignificant minority forever trapped in their own unfullfilled fantasies of plumbers having an affair with dumb-looking blond girls.

Of course you can simultaneously have a Nintendo console and be a real gamer as most likely you own at least one since childhood. But when you reach puberty, you realize there is more to life and upgrade to better, more mature gaming systems that show the potential of gaming in its true form.

 

[Plinko]

Everybody keeps making the same statement about poor 3D software sales.

Can we all agree that portable games are overpriced and the public has rejected the pricing structure?

Is that a thread-worthy topic?

 

[polyh3dron]

Did Patcher ever eat his hat?

 

[Subitai]

Wii U is selling worse than GCN at this point without the benefit of making great margin on the hardware. In that sense I think Pachter is correct in pointing out that Nintendo will have a hard time recovering if this situation doesn't turn around dramatically soon.

 

[Pie and Beans]

3 months. Dead in 3 months.

If I could just the future of anything that quickly, I'd have a lot of free time on my hands.

Heck, I didn't even judge the Vita that quickly, I gave that a whole year before I declared time of death. And that is arguably a worse situation than Wii U by a country mile.

Except the Vita didn't get to such a woeful point in its first 3 months. The WiiU is alone in its shame there.

Its also not exactly just 3 months we have to go on is it? We know the release schedule. Only the most delusional are holding out hope games like Pikmin 3 or Lego City are going to turn things around. And thats before we get a gawk at HOW LOW CAN YOU GO with February's NPD. You're looking at July-August earliest for the 3D Mario people will presume to turn things around, giving you a good half a year of... this level of success.

 

[Gilby]

Desperate Nintendo is best Nintendo, I'm thinking there's gonna be a lot of experimental games on the Wii U over its lifetime from smaller teams. If they can get their online crap together sooner rather than later it could become a really great platform for indie devs.