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NPD Sales Results for October 2013 [Up2: 3DS, 360, Pokemon Combined, GTAV]

What.? The game was expensive, no doubt about it
$27M without marketing. Not very expensive compared to other games. Heavy Rain was $22M for comparison and they broke even at about 700k copies sold IIRC. Now Beyond definitely had more advertising in the US at least, so I figure they probably need about 1.2m copies sold to break even on that game. Beyond may reach that goal eventually in lifetime sales, although it's doubtful. So it's a bomba, but I doubt Sony is loosing a lot of money on it, so not a big bomba all things considered.


They played Heavy Rain?
Costumer satisfaction with Heavy Rain was rather high. Mediocre reviews and release timing is the culprit here.


Beyond was awesome WTF is wrong with people.
They have no money to spend on a mediocre reviewed game after they just bought GTA and have Battlefield, AssCreed, Batman and the like coming up. Wallets are tight, so reviews matter more than ever for a new full priced IP. Also female protagonist. A shame that so many people will miss out on it, but what can you do...
 

Effect

Member
Ahahahaha

And people seriously thought the Wii ____ crowd was coming back? Fit and a retail version of Sports will bomb too. That audience has moved on, these numbers were inevitable.

People have been suggesting that for a long time now. Even Nintendo fans have been saying it. It's part of the frustration I believe many are feeling and have been feeling for a long time now. That audience isn't there. They weren't and never were part of the early adopter crowd. They likely won't be coming back as they've moved on as the uniqueness is no gone. It's a known quantity to them and the offerings on the Wii, if they're still interested, are still good enough.

Even if the audience was still there and could be made interested Nintendo has done nothing to engage them. These are the people that you need to play ads during primetime regularly in order to grab and make interested. These are the people Nintendo engaged and made take notice of the Wii when they had the Wii appear on the Today show and I believe Ellen. These are the people that were grabbed by the "Wii would like to play" commercials that show cased how the Wii was played.

What has Nintendo done at all to reengage these people after they allowed the Wii to die off in it's last few years and did almost no advertising launching the Wii U? No one should be surprised by this.
 
Party U < Batman U, I'm not kidding.

TW101 LTD < 25k

Amazing news about Batman. No idea why anyone including Nintendo thought the casual Wii ________ titles were a good idea for this system. The hardcore hate 'em and the casuals ain't coming back. The only people who will buy the Wii titles are the ultra hardcore Nintendo fans. Should have delayed some of that crap and ensured Donkey Kong was out this year so people have more than one game to play.
 
Amazing news about Batman. No idea why anyone including Nintendo thought the casual Wii ________ titles were a good idea for this system. The hardcore hate 'em and the casuals ain't coming back. The only people who will buy the Wii titles are the ultra hardcore Nintendo fans. Should have delayed some of that crap and ensured Donkey Kong was out this year so people have more than one game to play.

Hopefully, Nintendo will get the lesson if/when Wii Fit bombs. It'd be nice to have some of Nintendo's top teams on some meatier games. It feels like between Nintendo Land, Game&Wario, Wii Party, Wii Sports, and Wii Fit, half their Wii U output so far has been minigames.
 

Effect

Member
Japans possible total and bizarre indifference to 3D World so far is concerning and hopefully some incredibly localised phenomenon at Comgnet or worse Japan.

If its not and the WiiU has contracted some incurable "invisible console" disease where even a new big 3D Mario does nothing to stimulate the market, I'm not sure what people will expect Mario Kart and Smash to do. Will Nintendo just be breaking even or worse on software like 3D World and a Zelda now with HD development costs? Not to mention all the other potential bombas along the way (Bayonetta 2, Yarn Yoshi, X).

Those results would put a nail on the head of their console business even if it does bizarrely conform to the MINUS 10 MILLION CUSTOMERS trend they have going. I still think it can maybe eek it out to 15, depending on how long they leave it to flail around on the market and when that big savage price cut comes down.

Nintendo is going to be in a really bad place if Super Mario 3D World doesn't sell.

Here's the thing that should have Nintendo worried the most and I'd like to know if anyone else has anything to add to this or if I have said something wrong. While the GameCube didn't sell a lot many GameCube games sold well. Weren't many million sellers or even more? Those that bought the GameCube bought game after game. That's how it ended up making Nintendo profitable during those years I believe.

This is is a massive problem for Nintendo. There are what 4 million Wii U system or just under that world wide? Why didn't Wonderful 101 sell at least a million? Why didn't Zelda Wind Waker, Pikmin 3, Lego City Undercover, Game & Warrio, or Sonic: Lost World all sell significantly more?

Why are current Wii U owners not buying Nintendo published or exclusive Wii U games? Why did games at least sell for the GameCube not the Wii U? Did Nintendo drive off or let the core audience it did have get taken by Sony/Microsoft? Are they all on the 3DS and Nintendo simply has not engaged them beyond getting them (us) to buy the system and really nothing else?

This is something I think needs to be answered and addressed and I don't I've ever seen it addressed in a serious manner.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Here's another good example I think, and an area NCL is better than NOA. Marketing/advertising.
Which region had the best Wii U launch ad IMO? NCL's. (Watch it HERE.)
Which region has the most Super Mario 3D World ads? NCL's.

NOA has produced/released one Super Mario 3D World ad, while NCL has released four?

Nintendo is going to be in a really bad place if Super Mario 3D World doesn't sell.

Here's the thing that should have Nintendo worried the most and I'd like to know if anyone else has anything to add to this or if I have said something wrong. While the GameCube didn't sell a lot many GameCube games sold well. Weren't many million sellers or even more? Those that bought the GameCube bought game after game. That's how it ended up making Nintendo profitable during those years I believe.

This is is a massive problem for Nintendo. There are what 4 million Wii U system or just under that world wide? Why didn't Wonderful 101 sell at least a million? Why didn't Zelda Wind Waker, Pikmin 3, Lego City Undercover, Game & Warrio, or Sonic: Lost World all sell significantly more?

Why are current Wii U owners not buying Nintendo published or exclusive Wii U games? Why did games at least sell for the GameCube not the Wii U? Did Nintendo drive off or let the core audience it did have get taken by Sony/Microsoft? Are they all on the 3DS and Nintendo simply has not engaged them beyond getting them (us) to buy the system and really nothing else?

This is something I think needs to be answered and addressed and I don't I've ever seen it addressed in a serious manner.

I think your numbers are a bit off (25% attach rate worldwide for the unmarketed Wonderful 101 lol?), but yes, why didn't Nintendo published titles sell better (even like 200k) is a valid question. Maybe it's that Smash audience from the GameCube that went on to buy other games?

I think Pikmin 3 was probably the biggest seller since NSMBU right? It at least sold 110k or something in its first month. At least that game was advertised a bit though from what I'm hearing.

Anyways, I think I'm done caring about Wii U sales. It's just depressing anyways. Congrats to the 3DS/2DS/Pokemon, and I'll just enjoy some holiday titles (Mario & Zelda).
 

Yanikun

Banned
Mobile mostly I presume.

I don't buy that. Mobile devices satisfy cravings for a section of casual games that's mostly found on handhelds. A tablet or a phone can replace a 3DS or a Vita for casuals, but not a home console. If you want to dance/karaoke/do yoga/have a party/beat drums, your mobile device can't do it properly.

I think saying "that audience is gone, they're on mobile now" is nothing but the meme of the moment. Something people have heard applied correctly once and now think applies to everything. It's been the meme of the moment for maybe three years or something.

In my opinion, people should look into whether a decent part of that audience might actually still be there but the Wii U has not convinced them to leave their Wii and mobile devices behind. The Wii isn't just gone because it stopped selling and its successor is out. My sister and her husband are playing it. Wii Sports is still fun. The Wii U hasn't convinced that segment of the market, is more like it. Casuals aren't gonna adopt a more expensive version of what they have early if they see sequels to stuff they already have.

Maybe Wii Party/Fit/Sports Club still have sales potential, but not as some of the first intended system sellers. I always thought releasing those games early was incredibly stupid. Same with NSMBU. Those games should have been released later on, after they had built a higher user base and had already convinced some casuals with new stuff. If they bought a Wii U for something else, might as well buy the new versions of Party/Fit/Sports as well. That, I think, should have been their strategy.

I think the Wii U is a good product with lots of potential both for core Nintendo fans and casuals, but Nintendo is making it look like a reheated product with little potential to the casual audience. If my sister and her husband asked me why they should consider a Wii U purchase, I wouldn't have much to say.
 

liger05

Member
Nintendo is going to be in a really bad place if Super Mario 3D World doesn't sell.

Here's the thing that should have Nintendo worried the most and I'd like to know if anyone else has anything to add to this or if I have said something wrong. While the GameCube didn't sell a lot many GameCube games sold well. Weren't many million sellers or even more? Those that bought the GameCube bought game after game. That's how it ended up making Nintendo profitable during those years I believe.

This is is a massive problem for Nintendo. There are what 4 million Wii U system or just under that world wide? Why didn't Wonderful 101 sell at least a million? Why didn't Zelda Wind Waker, Pikmin 3, Lego City Undercover, Game & Warrio, or Sonic: Lost World all sell significantly more?

Why are current Wii U owners not buying Nintendo published or exclusive Wii U games? Why did games at least sell for the GameCube not the Wii U? Did Nintendo drive off or let the core audience it did have get taken by Sony/Microsoft? Are they all on the 3DS and Nintendo simply has not engaged them beyond getting them (us) to buy the system and really nothing else?

This is something I think needs to be answered and addressed and I don't I've ever seen it addressed in a serious manner.

Is it because people have basically traded the console in or packed it away. Having a console collect dust for months waiting for the next release doesnt inspire confidence and maybe people now are so turned off they have no desire to buy software for the console.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
Releasing the system without a gamepad and bundling Mario Kart for $199 is the only option left for Nintendo if they really want to avoid premature death. They may be willing to eat losses to avoid the disaster of having to pull a major console from retail.
 
Not seen it done this month, so I made it myself going off the 55k figure.

Mn7W3tf.png
 

GulAtiCa

Member
TW101 LTD < 25k

I feel sad now. :(

i tried looking for it, but i could only find it in gamestop. wii u games aren't on wii u section display shelves anymore if the retailer even carries them.
Yep. Target no longer sells most 3rd party games for Wii U. I think this is a trend that will just continue.

Though I hope that Nintendo continues to develop an ecosystem where indies devs can release their games on. But yeah, I have no expectations that third parties will greenlight WiiU games unless Nintendo foots the bill.
Me too. Luckily the # of sales I need to make profit is very low. But does make me worried.
 

Effect

Member
I think your numbers are a bit off (25% attach rate worldwide for the unmarketed Wonderful 101 lol?), but yes, why didn't Nintendo published titles sell better (even like 200k) is a valid question. Maybe it's that Smash audience from the GameCube that went on to buy other games?

I think Pikmin 3 was probably the biggest seller since NSMBU right? It at least sold 110k or something in its first month. At least that game was advertised a bit though from what I'm hearing.

Anyways, I think I'm done caring about Wii U sales. It's just depressing anyways. Congrats to the 3DS/2DS/Pokemon, and I'll just enjoy some holiday titles (Mario & Zelda).

Likely was reaching with that Wonderful 101 number (don't see why it couldn't have gotten close to that had Nintendo really pushed it) but question is still valid as you said. We constantly talk about third party games on the Wii U when I think what is more troubling is 1st party situation. Why haven't Nintendo's published games sold better in general outside of NSMBU and Nintendo Land (which was included with the version of the system that sold the most.)?
 
Where did the audience go, tho?

Just Dance?

My guesses would be Candy Crush, Angry Birds SW, Minecraft, and Kinect. Only one of which is on Nintendo hw, at a greatly inflated price.

Or they stopped gaming altogether, because to them 'gaming' was that 18 months when Guitar Hero and Wii Sports were hot shit at parties.
 
So for instance, tell us how it would work in games like Zombi U, Nintendo Land, Wii Party U, WiiFit U, Game & Wario, among others.

...

Impossible, right?
=> They'd have to discontinue these games.

And ask first and third parties to patch all other games. Sure thing.

They'll rather stick with their vision, no matter how cold the market has been on their first batch of games.
Or they could keep selling the gamepad as an additional accessory for those that want it.

They could also rebrand the console as Wii 2 and rebrand the new games cases as Wii 2 games; Wii U games would need the gamepad, and Wii 2 games wouldn't.

It's not undo-able, but I doubt they'd go that direction. I think they're probably going to ride the console out until it dies.
 
Here's my thought:

They should've had Smash for launch and ditched the 3DS version.

They also should've handed Kid Icarus Uprising to someone else or not have made it at all, why?

So Sakurai and company could've began Smash 4 with the intent on it being a launch title, since the game's taken a while, if they got a head start in say late-2009/2010, a Nov 2012 release for launch would've been very doable.

They could've started on PC as Sega did for Lost World and then brought it to Wii U when they were able to, but with everything finalized by that point.

Smash is without a doubt the biggest core IP they have, if any game will grab the veteran Nintendo fan, that is it. Mario Kart also should've been a Spring 2013 game to hook what casuals along with veterans they could grab. MK is the #2 biggest or #1 when you consider all audiences together.

The only other IP that's bigger than all is Pokemon, but that's of course handheld-only, because the main crowd doesn't really buy the console games in droves because they're not the main series. As much as I adore Stadium 1 & 2. :p

Nintendo's to blame for not getting their top tier games out as quickly as possible. Hopefully Smash 4 comes soon enough in 2014, they need it badly.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
So you think it makes more sense for Nintendo to go bankrupt paying
for exclusive deals for games that probably wont offer any ROI for them?
OK.

If they did this early enough and had enough meaningful exclusives perhaps they could have avoided this mess.
 

AOC83

Banned
If you want to dance/karaoke/do yoga/have a party/beat drums, your mobile device can't do it properly.

But nobody wants that anymore. It was cool for a while but like so many fads it died rather quick. And if someone really wants to play these games he can just do it on his Wii, it´s not like a higher resolution adds anything substantial to the experience.
 
Not seen it done this month, so I made it myself going off the 55k figure.
http://i.imgur.com/Mn7W3tf.png
This hits me in the feels a bit :/

Does anyone still update that ".Vs Dreamcast" graph? I know the DC is ahead but I'm wondering by how much.

According to SegaBase (The most complete data we have), they had crossed 2.1M in NA by August 2000.

I know October 2000 was the month that the PS2 launched, as well as the month that NFL2K1 surpassed Madden 2001 in sales (410K )


One quote I was able to find was "According to PC Data, in the three weeks since its release, NFL 2K1 has sold 409,260 units, which equates to approximately 17 percent of the total Dreamcast owners in North America." (October 3, 2000)

I'm sure that probably includes Canada and Mexico, but that puts the Dreamcast at around 2.4M in NA

(Sidenote, I wonder if that NFL exclusivity paid off for EA)

Worldwide, the Dreamcast was hovering the 6M WW mark in July 2000, but had just broke 1M units sold in Japan at that time. It was a bigger success in the US and Europe.

The Dreamcast went on to sell 8.2M units worldwide before Sega pulled the plug in March, 2001. The Wii U is doing better in Japan, and worse in Europe and US.

Kind of makes me wonder how a 4-year Dreamcast or Dreamcast/Xbox would have turned out.
 

Rocky

Banned
Or they could keep selling the gamepad as an additional accessory for those that want it.

They could also rebrand the console as Wii 2 and rebrand the new games cases as Wii 2 games; Wii U games would need the gamepad, and Wii 2 games wouldn't.

It's not undo-able, but I doubt they'd go that direction. I think they're probably going to ride the console out until it dies.

I think they should just scrap the Wii name entirely. It's a dead brand. Maybe rebrand the console as the Nintendo U or something.
 

rawk

Member
I wonder what this means for Nintendo's software output for the next few years. Nintendo can't really afford to keep dumping expensive games on the Wii U, especially when they could use the budget to fund (let's say) two 3DS games that would each sell better. They also can't really afford to alienate their hardcore fanbase by just totally shutting down the Wii U game pipeline, as meager as it is.

Will we end up seeing more direct sequels to already released or nearly done Wii U games? More HD remakes? More games developed for 3DS and Wii U at the same time? I would guess all of the above.

Since they probably can't put out any kind of Wii U replacement until 2016 (if they even want to), and most of 2014's games are probably well under way, I bet that the remaining chunk of 2014 releases and almost all of 2015 and 2016's Wii U releases fall into the above categories. Maybe we'll see 3D World 2, Pikmin 4, Animal Crossing New Leaf U, and Metroid Prime HD. Something like that.
 

Pociask

Member
But nobody wants that anymore. It was cool for a while but like so many fads it died rather quick. And if someone really wants to play these games he can just do it on his Wii, it´s not like a higher resolution adds anything substantial to the experience.

What's interesting about the faddish nature of some of those genres is how the publishers themselves did it. For example, plastic instrument games were released so quickly that a collapse was inevitable. So what does Ubisoft do with Just Dance?

Just Dance, Wii, Release 11/17/2009.

Just Dance 2, Wii, Release 10/12/2010

Just Dance 3, 360, PS3, Wii, Release 10/07/2011

Just Dance 4, 360, PS3, Wii, Wii U, Release 10/09/2012

Just Dance: Disney Party, 360, Wii, Release 10/23/2012

Just Dance Kids 2014

Just Dance 2014, 360, PS3, PS4, Wii, Wii U, Xbone, Release 10/08/2013

So, Ubisoft, think you should give Just Dance a break? Ubisoft, September 2013:

Ultimately, we want to continue to find new ways to grow the brand in other avenues that is bigger than the game itself. From the Just Dance Auto Dance mobile app to the World Dance Floor, the franchise still has plenty of room to spread its proverbial wings. The next-generation of systems provides yet another palette for the development team to work from and expand the Just Dance franchise in new and exciting ways.
 

jcm

Member
What's interesting about the faddish nature of some of those genres is how the publishers themselves did it. For example, plastic instrument games were released so quickly that a collapse was inevitable. So what does Ubisoft do with Just Dance?

Just Dance, Wii, Release 11/17/2009.

Just Dance 2, Wii, Release 10/12/2010

Just Dance 3, 360, PS3, Wii, Release 10/07/2011

Just Dance 4, 360, PS3, Wii, Wii U, Release 10/09/2012

Just Dance: Disney Party, 360, Wii, Release 10/23/2012

Just Dance Kids 2014

Just Dance 2014, 360, PS3, PS4, Wii, Wii U, Xbone, Release 10/08/2013

So, Ubisoft, think you should give Just Dance a break? Ubisoft, September 2013:

It depends. On the one hand, you can claim that people got sick of music games because there were so many RB and GHs in such a short time. Or, maybe they were going to get sick of the genre either way, in which case it makes perfect sense to try to extract as much money as you can in a short time.

I used to think Activision was stupid to have driven GH into the ground, but it hindsight I'm not sure that's what did it. I think it was probably just a fad.
 

starmud

Member
just dance was one of the wii ___ franchises. its not about the audience going somewhere as much as the audience for the wii dying/maturing. the games that still rake in $ for wii are largely for kids with an invested interest in a series, look at skylanders. the extended audience lost interest in wii offerings sometime back.

how many consumers are going to care to double dip for a few hundred bucks, for basically the same experience?

if the price was cheap maybe we'd have some cross interest but instead, nintendo spent an entire year building up the console for a more core gamer versus families. the system isn't packaged to be family friendly. its expensive.

saying the audience for software like just dance/wii fit/etc just went to mobile is lazy. something like just dance or many of the wii ___ experiences isn't on mobile or tablet. the problem is the experience and its packing hasn't been messaged or sold correctly to make that audience jump. the consumer is still reachable.

wiiu is too expensive and suffers from bad messaging. period. its cage is that the only new offerings is a tablet controller that is keeping the system at a higher price point. if anything the lesson here was go cheap and up sell for the casual/family audience.

this is board game night were talking about, not people looking for a set top box in the living room. the tablet controller should be an add on, it should be the balance board of add ons. the sorry fact now is that it may be too late to go back and change course successfully.

also, nintey should be way into f2p on wiiu by now. sports club is a weak entry into the field. these should all be pack in's and advertised as so.
 
Wii U wins, I believe. Handily.
You sure about the term "handily" ?

Sonic Lost World - <30K on 2 platforms (10K WiiU sounds about right?)
Wind Waker HD - <77K
Batman Arkham Origins - <11.7K
Wii Party U - <11.7K
Assassin's Creed - <6.5K
The Wonderful 101 - <5K

= <121.9K

I doubt Rayman Legends and the like sold enough to make the difference "handily". It's pretty close I think lol
 
Do people really think that the Wii U will be Nintendo's last console?

It may well be the last one resembling a traditional one.

I doubt Rayman Legends and the like sold enough to make the difference "handily". It's pretty close I thin

+ Everything that has released for Wii U since launch.

I wonder what this means for Nintendo's software output for the next few years. Nintendo can't really afford to keep dumping expensive games on the Wii U, especially when they could use the budget to fund (let's say) two 3DS games that would each sell better. They also can't really afford to alienate their hardcore fanbase by just totally shutting down the Wii U game pipeline, as meager as it is.

Will we end up seeing more direct sequels to already released or nearly done Wii U games? More HD remakes? More games developed for 3DS and Wii U at the same time? I would guess all of the above.

Since they probably can't put out any kind of Wii U replacement until 2016 (if they even want to), and most of 2014's games are probably well under way, I bet that the remaining chunk of 2014 releases and almost all of 2015 and 2016's Wii U releases fall into the above categories. Maybe we'll see 3D World 2, Pikmin 4, Animal Crossing New Leaf U, and Metroid Prime HD. Something like that.


I expect a lot of Mario, 3DS ports, and GC/Wii Ports. Personally i just hope X and FExSMT are unscathed, but the latter may well be moved to the 3DS or cancelled. X seemed pretty far along though. It will be sent to die along with Bayonetta 2 though. Once Nintendo realizes what hole they are in they'll probably be as conservative as possible. At least with the GC their software sold extremely well.
 

Sandfox

Member
It may well be the last one resembling a traditional one.

I really wouldn't even call the Wii U a traditional console tbqh. Depending on how the company is run in the next year or two I can see them going either a route more like the other consoles but with something else to stand out or try to do something completely innovative.
 

Square2015

Member
Just updated for you guys =) compare with DC and GC

xvyx.jpg
[/URL][/IMG]

Edit: Oh error, that was suppose to mention the WiiU price drop
 
If we see the WiiU increase like the DC (which it almost looks to follow so far, albeit lower), then we are looking at ~100k mark in November... Eeeek!

I think it'll be higher than that though, but still way under 200k.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
I really wouldn't even call the Wii U a traditional console tbqh. Depending on how the company is run in the next year or two I can see them going either a route more like the other consoles but with something else to stand out or try to do something completely innovative.

You expect Nintendo to suddenly produce some better than PS4 box in 2016 or find another golden goose that lays the innovative "hey come back 80 million extended audience people after 8 years of you leaving!" egg again? Neither seem based in the realities of the company right now.

The harsher lesson is going to be the nextNintendo Handheld being quasiHD if not 720p, taking near to the same money to dev games on to WiiU where they actually can make money on software, or even higher development costs on a system third parties will avoid like the plague at launch and also may only ever hit a 10 million unit ceiling after a really quite clear and present "Nintendo home consoles brah, they're noooooooooooooo good" mindset.

At most, the age of exclusive to home console platform Nintendo software is going to be over.

Just updated for you guys =) compare with DC and GC

xvyx.jpg
[/URL][/IMG]

Edit: Oh error, that was suppose to mention the WiiU price drop

Wow thats... wow. Is WiiU going to sell 200k now to stick as CLOSE AS POSSIBLE to the Dreamcast line?
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
I honestly think that with a multitouch and capacitive touch screen the folks they were going after would have been less surprised (disappointed or baffled) by the initial impression.

(It wouldn't have saved them - and I doubt they could have made the finances work but it might have been more attractive to the mobile/iPad segment)
 
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