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[DragonSworne]

I'm startin g to wonder if the hardcore Nintendo fanbase is actually smaller than most people think. You'd think just from Nintendo fans alone that Wii U would be performing better.

They either moved on to Playstations/Xbox or Iwata's philophosy is driving the fans away.

I wonder how many people will reluctantly purchase a Wii U when smash comes out.

 

[schwabdizzle]

So 3D World, Knack and Tearaway bomb while the top 10 is littered with first-person shooters.

It appears me and this industry are going in opposite directions :/

At the same time, all of those shooters are muliplatform where the games you mentioned are all one devise exclusives. I would multiply each number by 4 to get a better gage on what they would sell if they were multiplatform.

 

[PaulLFC]

But that's the situation at hand. Sony knew and chose to release the game at launch. KZ doing ok compared to the user base doesn't contradict the fact the series is losing traction and isn't sustainable by itself. The alternative is just to not use SW to say anything about the series, but that way then you can also suggest you shouldn't do comparisons if one game released in period with other similar titles and the other didn't and bring up various caveats.

How have you arrived at this conclusion? Given the smaller userbase of the PS4 and some buyers of SF getting it in a bundle (not counted in the above numbers) - what more is the game required to do to be "sustainable" in your opinion? If these numbers were on PS3 I'd agree, but they aren't. They're on PS4 and PS4 only.

Let's take a very extreme made up example.

Sample Game
Released on: System 1.
System 1 sales at time of game release - 3000 units.
Sales of game 1 - 1000 units (33% of userbase)

Sample Game 2 (sequel)
Released on: System 2
System 2 sales at time of game release - 1000 units
Sales of game 2 - 900 units (90% of userbase)

As I said, extreme example. Illustrates however that lower sales don't mean a franchise is declining one you take potential available userbase into account.

 

[Ricky_R]

This isn't the kind of game that has "legs"

You're wrong. It has "Hindle" legs.

 

[Derrick01]

One day we'll stop pretending mario and zelda are fresh with each game. Zelda especially rehashes the same goddamn world as a 20 year old game and plays mostly the same as it. In fact it's actually easier than the original was due to several kind of bad design decisions. It's still a fun game but stop trying to argue it's fresh or unique. That's like saying AC4 is unique because it changed a couple things around.

Come on Bruce, I never said Ryse would do Halo 3 numbers. I merely said it would sell well. I still think Ryse will be the best selling exclusive overall, as I expect Killzone sales to drop very quickly.

Your predictions are always horribly wrong and I can't get enough of them. Don't ever stop.

 

[BronsonLee]

Is Saty still talking about fucking Killzone?!

 

[driver116]

So 3D World, Knack and Tearaway bomb while the top 10 is littered with first-person shooters.

It appears me and this industry are going in opposite directions :/

This is America we're dealing with.

 

[marrec]

This is America we're dealing with.

What if...

We made The Messenger form Tearaway wear and American flag?

Not enough?

What if his 'Message' was a Nuke?

 

[ab.aeterno]

Same for mobile games. Angry Birds ain't DEVICE6 ain't XCom ain't The Room etc..

I'm starting to think that many people bemoaning the current state of the industry can't see past the end of their own nose. Or chosen console.

Agreed. SmokyDave, you're good people.

well to be fair, most indies are sidescrollers or 2D over the top which limits their scope. There are only so many of these games I can play before i just don't care about them anymore.

That's a really unfair characterization of indie games because it is changing. Star Citizen is indie; the idea of what can be done without publishers and their money is changing.

 

[SmokyDave]

So 3D World, Knack and Tearaway bomb while the top 10 is littered with first-person shooters.

It appears me and this industry are going in opposite directions :/

Littered? There are two. There are more sports games on there than FPS'.

 

[satam55]

Come on Bruce, I never said Ryse would do Halo 3 numbers. I merely said it would sell well. I still think Ryse will be the best selling exclusive overall, as I expect Killzone sales to drop very quickly.

Are You serious? All the Xbox1 loyalists I know are skipping out on Ryse.

 

[BronsonLee]

What if...

We made The Messenger form Tearaway wear and American flag?

Not enough?

What if his 'Message' was a Nuke?

It'll need a new title... How about Braid?!

 

[harSon]

Is Sony not pleased with their numbers or something? I thought they'd get down to specifics now that they were on top of the charts...

 

[Usobuko]

Is Sony not pleased with their numbers or something? I thought they'd get down to specifics now that they were on top of the charts...

Maybe because they still have to cough out Vita numbers as a whole.

 

[satam55]

so KZSF is the best selling exclusive?

awesome, hopefully Sony continues the franchise

If this happens, than I'd like to see the next PS4 Killzone made by Guerrilla Cambridge.

 

[curb]

So 3D World, Knack and Tearaway bomb while the top 10 is littered with first-person shooters.

It appears me and this industry are going in opposite directions :/

Tearaway didn't stand a chance being released in the middle of two console launches. Not that it would have done much better at a different time of year but the timing certainly didn't help.

I would also think that Tearaway sold alright digitally as well which I believe isn't represented in the NPD numbers.

 

[sörine]

Tearaway was an 8 person team, so people need to relax with the hyperbole. It'll probably do better than Etrian Odyssey IV, and that got a sequel.

EO4 did 15k in February while Tearaway did 14k in November. Nevermind that EO4 sold ~120k in Japan which might well be more than Tearaway manages worldwide until it's given away. This is really a terrible comparison on your part.

 

[QaaQer]

Tearaway didn't stand a chance being released in the middle of two console launches. Not that it would have done much better at a different time of year but the timing certainly didn't help.

I would also think that Tearaway sold alright digitally as well which I believe isn't represented in the NPD numbers.

Someone said >60%, which is pretty huge.

 

[StoOgE]

Is Sony not pleased with their numbers or something? I thought they'd get down to specifics now that they were on top of the charts...

My guess is Sony is waiting to hit WW 3 million which they ought to be getting relatively close to.

Either that or the number is somewhat close to the Xbox Ones number in the US and they would rather have people thinking it was 1.2-1.5 million which it may have been closer to 1 mil.

Who knows.

At the end of the day both consoles are doing about as well as they could do so I'm sure both platform holders are relatively pleased.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Littered? There are two. There are more sports games on there than FPS'.

And sports games never sold until 2 years ago, when the industry when to shit instead of embracing Nintendo and their 45 Mario games.

 

[Ricky_R]

Maybe because they still have to cough out Vita numbers as a whole.

They are in a meeting with Major Nelson as we speak figuring out a way to make the Vita numbers look good.

 

[Saty]

How have you arrived at this conclusion? Given the smaller userbase of the PS4 and some buyers of SF getting it in a bundle (not counted in the above numbers) - what more is the game required to do to be "sustainable" in your opinion? If these numbers were on PS3 I'd agree, but they aren't. They're on PS4 and PS4 only.

If SF was a new IP it probably would have been ok and you could only go up. But it's a part of a ever-dwindling costly series that's hasn't proved itself by selling well or moving consoles.What can Sony do that they haven't tried with this franchise to make it worthwhile to keep funding. Why would they still take a loss from it? Being a launch title doesn't reduce the budget. If Killzone was a game published by 3rd party publisher, it would likely been benched already.

An installment released in the height of the PS3 generation and with little competition sells around the same as the installment that is flagship console launch title, enjoying all the hype. ~300K in your debut month in the strongest market for an expensive AAA title doesn't cut it. What would you do that Sony hasn't to have that IP break out? What argument can you present for Sony funding KZ5 instead of funneling that money to a different game?

 

[ionicbluebird]

Yeah, so I'll agree with famous and say that yeah, prepare for winter, the Xbox One is going to lead the way in NDP December. Two reasons: Microsoft are likely diverting quite a bit of stock the US's way for whatever reason. And the second reason is simple math, Sony is accommodating a lot more countries with PS4 than Microsoft is with Xbone.. so even if Microsoft weren't diverting more bones the US's way, they would still be supplying more inventory than Sony all else being equal. It's basically a foregone conclusion at this point. But a technicality. Should come with an asterisk really. Now the first six months of 2014... that will be more interesting.

 

[QaaQer]

EO4 did 15k in February while Tearaway did 14k in November. Nevermind that EO4 sold ~120k in Japan which might well be more than Tearaway manages worldwide until it's given away. This is really a terrible comparison on your part.

IMO, there is more of a chance of a Tearaway II than EO VI, but we'll see.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

If this happens, than I'd like to see the next PS4 Killzone made by Guerrilla Cambridge.

Absolutely. GG Cambridge is superior in every way

 

[Razdek]

Jesus Christ if those Vita numbers are correct then it's worst than I expected. I thought that the synergy with PS4 for remote play would get more people to buy it but it's dead. Those Tearaway numbers are sad as well.

 

[Hindle]

One day we'll stop pretending mario and zelda are fresh with each game. Zelda especially rehashes the same goddamn world as a 20 year old game and plays mostly the same as it. In fact it's actually easier than the original was due to several kind of bad design decisions. It's still a fun game but stop trying to argue it's fresh or unique. That's like saying AC4 is unique because it changed a couple things around.



Your predictions are always horribly wrong and I can't get enough of them. Don't ever stop.

On the other hand, most of your comments in general are about as inconsistent as you can go, and you rarely make any sense.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

They are in a meeting with Major Nelson as we speak figuring out a way to make the Vita numbers look good.

"On Chicago, Illinois, on a certain Wal-Mart Vita was the fastest selling console in US the 13th November between the 12:00 a.m and 6 p.m, all the other consoles were out of stock, but it shows a raising trend on Vita sales"

 

[Bowler]

Saddened by the vita/tearaway/3dmario numbers.

<ididmypart.gif>

 

[quetz67]

This is America we're dealing with.

Yeah I hope for europe. Tearaway is top selling Vita game on amazon.de. That plus the really nice bundle for 149€ should make europe numbers quite a bit higher than US.

Not that I expect(ed) it to be a mega seller.

 

[gamechanger87]

So correct me if I'm wrong but NPD does not pick up digital sales, correct?

I bought everything digital and I think that may be a factor on the software side. I think only MS, Sony and the devs know actually how many games were moved.

 

[BronsonLee]

On the other hand, most of your comments in general are about as inconsistent as you can go, and you rarely make any sense.

What are you talking about? Derrick is the most consistent poster in the world

THIEF is great
Everything else sucks
Especially other stealth games
New THIEF sucks too
Also The Game

In all seriousness, Derrick is fine. At least he doesn't go full doofus for console war madness

 

[jmdajr]

Things will pick up after the Holidays!

 

[Lagaff]

Sad for Nintendo I hope thing goes better for them and they need something new..

 

[quickwhips]

One day we'll stop pretending mario and zelda are fresh with each game. Zelda especially rehashes the same goddamn world as a 20 year old game and plays mostly the same as it. In fact it's actually easier than the original was due to several kind of bad design decisions. It's still a fun game but stop trying to argue it's fresh or unique. That's like saying AC4 is unique because it changed a couple things around.



Your predictions are always horribly wrong and I can't get enough of them. Don't ever stop.

He was really close with the PS4 and X1 numbers

 

[The Librarian]

One day we'll stop pretending mario and zelda are fresh with each game. Zelda especially rehashes the same goddamn world as a 20 year old game and plays mostly the same as it. In fact it's actually easier than the original was due to several kind of bad design decisions. It's still a fun game but stop trying to argue it's fresh or unique. That's like saying AC4 is unique because it changed a couple things around.

Haven't you heard? The time of Mario has come to an end.

 

[satam55]

Absolutely.
GG Cambridge is superior in every way

Isn't Guerrilla Cambridge a WAY smaller studio with less resources than Guerrilla Games?,

 

[N.Domixis]

Come on Bruce, I never said Ryse would do Halo 3 numbers. I merely said it would sell well. I still think Ryse will be the best selling exclusive overall, as I expect Killzone sales to drop very quickly.

You always think and you are always confident, but most of the time you turn out to be wrong. Rise is going to drop, it won't have legs. Even though killzone sucks, at least it's fan base should ensure it sells more.

 

[Drakeon]

Is there a reason why Tearaway didn't get released on PSN, for the PS4?

Have you seen anything for Tearaway at all? It's quite-possibly the most vita-centric designed game to date. It wouldn't work on any other system.

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

Your predictions are always horribly wrong and I can't get enough of them. Don't ever stop.

Yeah, they're amusing. Another day, another spin.

 

[Effect]

Sad for Nintendo I hope thing goes better for them and they need something new..

Don't feel sad for them at all. They brought this on themselves. If anything people, especially Wii U owners should feel angry with them for not doing the proper things required to make sure people that bought the Wii U didn't waste their money buying the system and even supporting it until now.

I'm really annoyed if not a little pissed that things are turning out this way and I blame Nintendo 100%.

 

[besada]

I'm starting to think that many people bemoaning the current state of the industry can't see past the end of their own nose. Or chosen console.

I'm with you. I've been gaming for more than thirty years, and I've never seen a period so robust in its choices.

 

[sörine]

IMO, there is more of a chance of a Tearaway II than EO VI, but we'll see.

I'd say there's definitely more chance of additional 3DS EO games than there is additional Vita Tearaway games.

The comparison makes little sense though, one was a niche 3rd party dungeon crawler released in the off season, the other a system defining hyped 1st party platformer released during the busiest shopping season of the year. You trying to equate the two comes off as really reaching and a little desperate.

 

[Plinko]

Littered? There are two. There are more sports games on there than FPS'.

I'm thinking more along the lines of number of copies sold.

I get the sale of sports games. Basketball is different from hockey is different from football is different from soccer, etc, etc. I do not understand the sale of first person shooters, as the gameplay is nearly identical in all. There are subtle differences, I guess.

 

[Derrick01]

He was really close with the PS4 and X1 numbers

I'm personally still waiting for MS to buy off every major third party game because they "can". But not only did they not do that at all, each of the major games sold way more on PS4.

 

[Jonboy]

Wow. Looks like I picked a bad day to be away from GAF!

Quick question...do we still not have hard numbers for what PS4 sold? Just between 909K and 1.6 million? That's a really wide range there...

 

[Donnie]

The Nintendo brand is finally over. Maybe next decade!

It's over, period. Nintendo lost the casuals, and that's the end of their Wii U hopes and dreams.

It's not hyperbole, it's not fanboy drivel. It is LITERALLY it for Wii U. Nintendo has nothing left, nothing they have can fix the hole now created. There is no reason left for anyone, hardcore or casual, to substantially invest in a Wii U. Except if they want to play Bayonetta 2. Which will also come to PS4 at some point.

Microsoft and Sony took the last reason away that anyone would NEED to own a WiiU over a PS4 or Xbox one(except Miiverse LOL GAMING), and the cavalcade of tiny titles that will be nice but won't stir up any sales is not going to salvage the underpowered non-entity that was Wii U.

There may be some hardcore gamers that stick around. Some did it for PS3 too. But the last bell tolled. Maybe next decade.

The age of Nintendo is done.

Why should we assume Bayonetta 2 will come out for PS4 when the game is funded by Nintendo?

Also the "this is not hyperbole" remark is funny because that post is just about the definition of hyperbole. Doesn't mean there's no truth at all there, but its certainly extremely hyperbolic.

EDIT: Seems I've missed a joke, sorry.

 

[Hindle]

You always think and you are always confident, but most of the time you turn out to be wrong. Rise is going to drop, it won't have legs. Even though killzone sucks, at least it's fan base should ensure it sells more.

I predicted Ryse would sell despite many people saying it would bomb. My basis is MS are pushing the game very hard so I expect the game to sell via bundles, and price cuts.

 

[marrec]

Wow. Looks like I picked a bad day to be away from GAF!

Quick question...do we still not have hard numbers for what PS4 sold? Just between 909K and 1.6 million? That's a really wide range there...

Hardest number I could come up with is 1,138k based on an earlier post.

 

[BrokenIcarus]

Why should we assume Bayonetta 2 will come out for PS4 when the game is funded by Nintendo?

Also the "this is not hyperbole" remark is quite funny because that post is just about the definition of hyperbole.

I'm pretty sure that's just his unique take on the legendary Amir0x post about FFXIII becoming multiplatform.