2018 USA midterm elections: predictions thread

i_am_ben

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#1
https://www.newsweek.com/2018-midterm-election-projections-predictions-odds-latest-democrats-1192418


Just more than a week remains before Election Day in November. Next Tuesday Americans will take to the polls and long, contentious campaigns will come to a close. (Forget, for a moment, that the next long, contentious campaigns will begin soon thereafter.)

The question on everyone's mind concerning the 2018 midterm election is, of course, which party will have the better day. The latest projections seem to show that both parties might have victories to celebrate next Tuesday.

For instance, in FiveThirtyEight's tracker for a generic ballot—a simple Democrat vs. Republican question—the Democrats were up 50.3 percent to 41.9 percent, on average. AndFiveThirtyEight's election model projected a more than 86 percent chance that the Democrats would take back the House of Representatives from Republicans, who currently control both chambers of Congress. But FiveThirtyEight gave the Democrats just a slim chance—17.8 percent—of winning the Senate, meaning the site gave the GOP an 82.2 percent chance of holding onto control.

Title says it all really! What do you think the outcome of the 2018 US midterms will be?


In the House I think Democrats will probably win 30 seats, while in the Senate I think the Republicans will probably pick up a seat.
 

sahlberg

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Oct 27, 2017
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#2
Calibrating to compensating for poll error bias over the last few years, to me it sounds like:

Senate: Republicans will significantly increase their majority. Landslide.
House: Up in the air. Rep keeping the house most likely but outside chance of dem taking it can not be ignored. Even though minimal.
 
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Jun 1, 2013
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#7
As a Norwegian, I hope Dems win the house. The republicans are pretty nutty to me. Like the most right-wing party here is further to the left than the dems.
 
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Jun 1, 2013
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#9
I'd like to hear why you think they are nutty...just out of curiosity. If you don't mind...
Gun control, universal healthcare, lbgtq support, feminism, taxes, privatization, military funding, support for wars, climate change, money in politics.

Not to say that the dems are good at these, they are terrible at many of these, but the GOP is worse.

I also dislike how religious the GOP is. Norway is a very secular socialdemocratic country that uses the nordic model. Both the GOP and the Dems are complete opposite of that.
 
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Likes: YayNJ
Jul 25, 2013
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#11
I'd like to hear why you think they are nutty...just out of curiosity. If you don't mind...
The current POTUS launched his campaign by doing things like accusing Ted Cruzs father of assassinating JFK, spends his time parroting or alluding to lots of right wing conspiracy theories, called global warming a Chinese hoax, got caught stealing money from.people via fake educational institutes, tweets the most obviously incorrect and stupid stuff on a regular basis.

Etc

Etc

Etc

You people are insane over there in general tbh.
 
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Jun 1, 2013
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#12
The current POTUS launched his campaign by doing this like accusing Ted Cruzs father of assassinating JFK, spends his time parroting or alluding to lots of right wing conspiracy theories, called global warming a Chinese hoax, got caught stealing money from.people via fake educational institutes,

You people are insane over there in general tbh.
Also, last week, the white house released a 70 pages report called "The opportunity Costs of Socialism" naming Denmark and Norway as country that has gotten worse out of socialism. Which is funny since Denmark and Norway are not socialist, but socialdemocratic.
 
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appaws

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Jan 31, 2008
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#13
The GOP will gain a few in the Senate. Some of the senate races are very close, but conditions on the ground favor Republicans. McCaskill, Heitkamp, and Donnelly are going down. Manchin will hold on, but he often votes with the GOP. Heller and Scott might lose very narrowly. If they win comfortably, it is a red wave.

The house races structurally favor the Dems. The will gain, but might just miss control. I could see them gaining 40 if things break their way, or as few as 10-15 if things don't break their way.

Prediction:
Senate GOP +3
House Dems +20 (narrowly missing taking control.)

This will spare us 2 years of complete bullshit investigative committees every time Trump drops ass in the oval office.
 
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Sep 11, 2007
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#16
I would bet money the GOP keeps the Senate. Probably net gain of 1-2 seats.
It will be fairly close, I don't expect a blow out, but they will probably lose the House, although I hope I'm wrong.

I've read analysis that a Speaker Pelosi will actually help Trump's 2020 reelection chances.
 
May 16, 2005
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#17
Calibrating to compensating for poll error bias over the last few years, to me it sounds like:

Senate: Republicans will significantly increase their majority. Landslide.
House: Up in the air. Rep keeping the house most likely but outside chance of dem taking it can not be ignored. Even though minimal.
If the Democrats fail to even take control of the house,(i honestly believe there is zero chance they dont take the house)it will be bloodbath for the party. A cleansing and reorientation of the party, and even a splintering will take place, and two parties will emerge which will be devastating for the left. Regaining any semblance of power will take almost a decade.

It will be a complete and utter rebuke of their platform, politics, ideas, and agenda after rhetoric has been amped to 11 and the majority of the media and celebrities have sided with them. The loss would be total.

Even with just a narrow gain of the house and failing to win back the Senate is a horrible loss for the party after what has taken place this year.

If the dems fail to win control of the house I'll be shocked. Utterly shocked. I just dont think that is possible though. If they barely scrape though in the house it'll be a blow as well.

They have to win utterly in the house, and come close in the Senate for this to be any kind of win, period. Win both, and you've got traction.
 
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Likes: Square2015
Oct 3, 2004
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#19
As a Norwegian, I hope Dems win the house. The republicans are pretty nutty to me. Like the most right-wing party here is further to the left than the dems.
As a Canadian that's leaned left all my life the Republicans actually come across looking far more grounded and rational to me these days, which I didn't think I'd ever say, excluding the Tweeter-In-Chief of course. I just can't look past that Kavanaugh smear campaign. Republicans flat out told Dems they wouldn't vote on Garland, they had control of the Senate, no BS games played. Democrats, on the other hand, hijacked the #MeToo movement for their own political gain and dragged two families through the mud doing it, almost everyone in the mainstream media supporting that blatant partisan hackery. I was like Neo watching Morpheus jump across buildings for the first time in The Matrix... "This is what the Democrats have become?"

I expect Dems to take control of the House, but I do hope I'm proven wrong. Barring some 11th hour bombshells the Republicans will keep control of the senate. Either way, bipartisanship will be needed to accomplish anything substantial over the next couple of years.
 
May 22, 2018
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#22
HOUSE GOES BLUE

SENATE STAYS RED

So maybe some republican annoyance over the House loss and some democrat overconfidence over the House win but no major salt :(
This is my prediction as well. The Senate is the dream, but its just a lost cause in some states. Beto O'Rourke for example is a fantastic candidate and would win pretty much anywhere else in the country, but since he is running is the political shithole that is Texas he is likely to lose due solely to the fact that his name doesn't have a "R" next to it. Its kind of sad really because he could do great things for Texas. Certainly more than fucking Ted Cruz who is possibly the most useless sack of turds on either side of the aisle.


However I will gladly take the Dems controlling the House if we can get it. It will at least make the GOP's life that much harder.
 
Apr 9, 2009
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#25
This is my prediction as well. The Senate is the dream, but its just a lost cause in some states. Beto O'Rourke for example is a fantastic candidate and would win pretty much anywhere else in the country, but since he is running is the political shithole that is Texas he is likely to lose due solely to the fact that his name doesn't have a "R" next to it. Its kind of sad really because he could do great things for Texas. Certainly more than fucking Ted Cruz who is possibly the most useless sack of turds on either side of the aisle.


However I will gladly take the Dems controlling the House if we can get it. It will at least make the GOP's life that much harder.
As an El Pasoan I have to say Beto's fate is unfortunate. He was doing great work as our congressional rep but gave that up for a fight he can't win.

More so than anything Dems winning house and senate would make Neogaf the most entertaining forum on the Internet
Naw. If that happened you'd wanna check out /pol/. Thats where ground zero would be.
 
Oct 21, 2018
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#26
As an El Pasoan I have to say Beto's fate is unfortunate. He was doing great work as our congressional rep but gave that up for a fight he can't win.



Naw. If that happened you'd wanna check out /pol/. Thats where ground zero would be.
Eh nah. /pol/ has no basis in reality whatsoever. Everything is constant spin to the point where it’s not even funny, just stupid.

Here at least, it would be a great mix of gloating, downplaying, spin, anger, and fake tears.
 

old

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May 11, 2013
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#31
I’m a pessimist. The democrats will get close but get just below retaking the house. Trumps reign will unfortunately continue unabated.
 
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phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Jun 1, 2009
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#32
I expect the Democrats to take the House fairly comfortably with something to spare. Senate will likely be marginally redder than before, but with significantly reduced margins all round for the Republicans, which is going to set alarm bells ringing for 2020 when the map is much more favourable to the Dems.

There will be the usual spin of victories and defeats after the results are in, but there's no convincing narrative - barring a big red landslide - to say that the current administration is either sufficiently popular or sufficiently on the right course. I'd expect to see a slew of Republican retirements in the run-up to 2020.

Downballot, it'll be interesting to see the impact on state governors and legislatures - expecting to see Dem gains.

On the whole this will be good for democracy, as the more races are close the less room there is for the crazies. You want to win a close race, you don't primary from the extreme right or the extreme left.
 
Likes: Sub_Level
Apr 23, 2018
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#33
Its worth mentioning that virtually all talk from the fake news media about a blue wave has evaporated. Its now back to Orange man bad and Orange man racist. So far, Early vote is actually really good for republicans but pollsters say it doesn't count because reasons. Some of the reasons im seeing are The mythological republicans that will vote democrat to spite trump, even though they didn't in 2016 and the mythological suburban republican women disgusted by trumps rhetoric but somehow tolerate violent leftist mob mentality.

As for my actual prediction? Eh I think to a certain extent it will be rigged in favor of the dems at least in the house. If the election is free and fair I don't think gop loses the house and picks up at least 5 senate seats while holding all of theirs. Dems pick up a few governors seats. I could be completely wrong either way.

I do expect the news media cycle to go along these lines, short of anything crazy happening.

Sunday: Gop hold Slight Edge in Early Voting, will it last?
Monday: Gerrymandering is evil, heres why.
Tuesday: Please Vote for us!
Wednesday: Gop won, is it ok to commit political violence?
 
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Likes: Bryank75
May 22, 2018
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#34
I agree with the consensus that Dems take the
House, Reps hold the Senate. It's just numbers.

But I think Rourke can take out Cruz.
O'Rourke upsetting Cruz would be HUGE. Everything I have seen tells me that O'Rourke is obviously the better man for the job, but it's Texas so I'm not getting my hopes up.
 
May 10, 2009
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#37
This is my prediction as well. The Senate is the dream, but its just a lost cause in some states. Beto O'Rourke for example is a fantastic candidate and would win pretty much anywhere else in the country, but since he is running is the political shithole that is Texas he is likely to lose due solely to the fact that his name doesn't have a "R" next to it. Its kind of sad really because he could do great things for Texas. Certainly more than fucking Ted Cruz who is possibly the most useless sack of turds on either side of the aisle.


However I will gladly take the Dems controlling the House if we can get it. It will at least make the GOP's life that much harder.
I don’t think ‘Beto’ is all that good. Listening to him talk he’s awkward and gestures.. he reminds me of Napoleon Dynamite. It just goes to show how unliked Ted Cruz is no one likes him. Also, his father helped kill JFK, lolllll that still cracks me up.
 
May 17, 2018
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#38
One thing for sure voter turnout is huge. Early voting is triple what was last election, that bodes well for democrats.
 
Jan 7, 2018
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#39
I would bet money the GOP keeps the Senate. Probably net gain of 1-2 seats.
It will be fairly close, I don't expect a blow out, but they will probably lose the House, although I hope I'm wrong.

I've read analysis that a Speaker Pelosi will actually help Trump's 2020 reelection chances.
you really don't need to analysis to know that Trump will win. When was the last time a president only serve 1 term? Bush SR. I believe.
 
Likes: CausticVenom
Jun 7, 2013
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#43
As I have stated in previous threads. Republicans keep majorities in both the House and Sentate.
Although the polls has the house definitely going BLUE, the generic polls are based nationally, if you look at battleground races its more tight. But I'd have to say that I think the House goes blue. You are going to have to snatch that gavel out of the cold hands of Pelosi, no Boehner tears are going to save you. :)
 

Mihos

Gold Member
May 10, 2009
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#44
One thing for sure voter turnout is huge. Early voting is triple what was last election, that bodes well for democrats.
That is what I see as the democrats biggest problem. The turnout is huge, but most of those huge turnouts where in districts where the outcome was never really in question. I still think they take the house, but not as much as they think.

I expect a lot of sore losers and everyone blaming everyone of cheating.
 
Mar 30, 2011
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#45
I think this mid-term election cycle will buck the trend of mid-term wave elections when one party is in power. The Republicans will gain seats in the Senate, keep a majority of the Governorships and the Democrats will obtain a slight majority in the House. So basically, this isn't a wave election.
 
Aug 11, 2018
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#47
Senate was a long shot for Democrats from the start so I'd be surprised if they tied it up or got a majority.
I think the House should be a fairly comfortable majority for Democrats. 25 seat majority maybe?

I've seen many reports of increased turnout among people who haven't voted in the last midterm and even those who haven't voted at all before so it'll be interesting to see how the polls line up with the actual results. I think we could be in store for some upsets, but we'll see. I think a blue wave makes the most sense, but with how divided the country is these days it seems Republicans are also relatively motivated this time around. That said; a red wave isn't happening.