2018 USA midterm elections: predictions thread

Aug 11, 2018
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#55
Also another good thing, it might make the democrats reevaluate their extreme leftward tilt.

According to bipartisan polling, their whole "enforcing immigration laws is racist" is a losing position.
Do you have a link on said polling?
I'm actually kind of curious how the both parties' immigration stances are viewed. I found a Pew poll that sort of includes it, but refers to it as 'America's openness is essential to who we are as a nation' which sounds a bit vague.
 
Jan 12, 2018
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#57
Red Senate and..... a Red House.
I really don't understand what anyone would get out of voting blue... you want to stagnate a healthy economy just to spite the party you oppose!?
You want to oppose a party that has got minority unemployment down t unprecedented levels?
 
Likes: pramod
Aug 11, 2018
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#58
Now that is a very bold prediction given the circumstances.
The year of the libertarian party is upon us
Red Senate and..... a Red House.
I really don't understand what anyone would get out of voting blue... you want to stagnate a healthy economy just to spite the party you oppose!?
You want to oppose a party that has got minority unemployment down t unprecedented levels?
The economy was on about the same trend under Obama. I don't think it's a reason for a lot of people not to vote Democrat.
 
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old

Member
May 11, 2013
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#59
I also predict some really close races will be decided among controversy where votes that could swing it are not counted, in others where votes magically appear to swing it, and in one case where an unreadable ballot is determined by officials to be for X and thus swinging the election to X.
 
Jan 12, 2018
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#60
The year of the libertarian party is upon us

The economy was on about the same trend under Obama. I don't think it's a reason for a lot of people not to vote Democrat.
No, I don't agree with that. GDP never rose above 2%. He himself admitted that the jobs were never coming back and Trump needed a "magic wand" and the stock market has been very strong apart from when the Fed touch the interest rate... which also signals that the economy could be doing even better than is evident.
 
Nov 5, 2016
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#62
Red Senate and..... a Red House.
I really don't understand what anyone would get out of voting blue... you want to stagnate a healthy economy just to spite the party you oppose!?
You want to oppose a party that has got minority unemployment down t unprecedented levels?
Isn’t “spiting the party you oppose” basically the norm now for the vast majority of Americans?
 
Oct 10, 2018
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#67
Don't forget to screencap all news articles from all big and independent sites on both sides when the results are called. A lot of people forgot to do this in 2016 where all the media were blaming black people for the democrats lost then they switched it to white people in a "white lash' or whatever nonsense.

Some people did, my phone didn't have that feature and my work computer disabled it so I was just mad no one was taking about it the next 48 hours because they were blaming us like the plague.
 
May 16, 2005
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#70
If the house stays red I'll be in complete shock, much like I was when I was watching the results roll in on 2016(I had three monitors going and it was surreal)

There are so many outlets hedging their bets though so there is a ton of confusion all over the networks. This is what 2016 did to them. Polling is only as good as the people are honest about their intentions, as many of the actual pollsters learned.

We'll see.
 

i_am_ben

running_here_and_there
Feb 5, 2008
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#73
People keep saying Beto has a chance at winning, but i'm skeptical.

I hope he does win though. It's never good when parties start taking voters for granted.
 
Nov 1, 2017
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#84
Please quote me where I implied all early votes were for Democrats. Much appreciated!
Pimentel predicted Democrats take House and Senate as they have never seen so many young people afraid of Trump, I replied that could be so though the internet is a young person echo chamber, then you posted stats to try show that it's not just all talk from people on the internet, young voter early showing is strong with you implying they are voting for Democrats.

I asked if you knew who the early turn out was voting for and you replied with 'do you?'
 
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Oct 24, 2017
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#85
No idea what will happen, but it would seem crazy to me that a populace isn't going to vote strongly for a party that is giving them the lowest unemployment rate in history plus strong wage growth. So do people NOT want to have more jobs and more money?
 
May 17, 2018
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#86
Here is what's really scary, Trump has a legit positive to throw all in the media and lefts faces. He could talk all day about the economy and the jobs.

The truth is whatever force is controlling wants him to stay on the negative topics that divide this country.
 
Nov 1, 2017
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#87
Here is what's really scary, Trump has a legit positive to throw all in the media and lefts faces. He could talk all day about the economy and the jobs.

The truth is whatever force is controlling wants him to stay on the negative topics that divide this country.

Have you seen his Facebook and Twitter feeds?

He’s constantly talking about how good the economy and jobs are.

Most of the 'negative' posts he does is replying to the media or posting about how the Democrats are blocking his immigration reforms.

I'd wager it's just your chosen new sources that are failing to report on what he is saying about the economy hence why you feel he is only harping on about perceived negatives.
 
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Likes: pramod
Apr 15, 2018
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#88
Here is what's really scary, Trump has a legit positive to throw all in the media and lefts faces. He could talk all day about the economy and the jobs.

The truth is whatever force is controlling wants him to stay on the negative topics that divide this country.
Whoever is controlling him? Who is that? Putin....The illumanati.... crab people...

Liberals really don't take losing well:messenger_tears_of_joy:
 
Likes: pramod
May 17, 2018
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#89
Judging by current early voting turnout, it seems its more than just internet echo chambers such as forums like this:

http://www.electproject.org/early_2018
Bigger turn out does not automatically equal bigger share for one particular party.
Also young voters are leaning more liberal / democratic in general, but they're also more conservative / republican than used to be at the same time.

But yeah early voter are more skewed towards a demographic that tends to vote more liberal / democratic. Could chance a percentage point and be enough for toss up states.
 
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Sep 11, 2007
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#90
What metrics and sites are people using here to stay informed on the midterms?
Realclearpolitics.com has a ton of polling data. They also do a decent job of aggregating opinion articles.

Blue House. Blue Senate. Young voters are afraid like I have never seen before and more reds are unsure of supporting Trump.
Regarding young voters, I saw Karl Rove the other night say O'Rourke is claiming a 500% increase in young voter turnout. Rove said the only areas in Texas that had that information available were some of the big cities. And when he checked, the 20-29 age group was at 9% of all early votes vs 10% the last election. So basically there is no evidence that young voters are turning out in higher numbers than usual (at least in Texas).

Also, Trump's approval rating among registered Republicans is historically high. The vast majority will not cross over and vote Democrat.
 
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Oct 24, 2017
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#91
So far Democrats have offered the same things to voters when they lost the 2016 elections....ie nothing. Except identity politics I guess. And maybe more Obamacare? Obamacare Part 2? Obamacare Deluxe? Who really wants that?
 

i_am_ben

running_here_and_there
Feb 5, 2008
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#93
So far Democrats have offered the same things to voters when they lost the 2016 elections....ie nothing. Except identity politics I guess. And maybe more Obamacare? Obamacare Part 2? Obamacare Deluxe? Who really wants that?
Healthcare is the number one issue.

People are very upset after the Republicans tried to repeal Obamacare and their attacks on pre-existing conditions.

That's not identity politics. And it's not a minor thing.
 
Mar 30, 2011
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#94
Blue House. Blue Senate. Young voters are afraid like I have never seen before and more reds are unsure of supporting Trump.
Not sure where you are getting this, but as a Republican myself, who has a large amount of friends and family who are Republican as well, Trump is actually extremely popular and his numbers are up there with Eisenhower and Reagen among Republicans.

Donald Trump Job Approval

Weekly averages from Gallup Daily tracking

Republicans
2018 Oct 29-Nov 4
88%
2018 Oct 22-28 89%
2018 Oct 15-21 91%
2018 Oct 8-14 88%
2018 Oct 1-7 86%

In comparison, George W. Bush's job approval rating among Republicans during his second term averaged 77%.
 
Likes: pramod
Oct 10, 2018
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#97
When can we expect first early results?
Also where to watch live coverage that is not that one sided.

Is there something between CNN and FOX?
Yes, there's uh...........

You know instead of looking for an unbiased source, just look at the real time map and look at the states fill in and the numbers climb up because at least that will be accurate and not be someones made up opinion.

Also Newswars
 
Oct 21, 2018
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#98
Also another good thing, it might make the democrats reevaluate their extreme leftward tilt.

According to bipartisan polling, their whole "enforcing immigration laws is racist" is a losing position.
Obama defeating GOP candidates twice didn't moderate the GOP, so that's unlikely.

If anything, the GOP is now more right-wing than it was in the time of GWB. Especially on immigration.
 
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May 17, 2018
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Yes, there's uh...........

You know instead of looking for an unbiased source, just look at the real time map and look at the states fill in and the numbers climb up because at least that will be accurate and not be someones made up opinion.

Also Newswars
I'm not from the US, that's why i ask.
I don't know where to find those juice real time maps and graphs.