The Sega Saturn shat on PS1 in terms of power
Misleading and generally WRONG.
It had the better CPU, but in terms of handling 3D, the big thing that defined that generation, it was much weaker than the PS1. However, there were so many things that went wrong with the Saturn that lead to its demise.
Of course power isn't everything, but it's important, otherwise there's little reason to consider upgrading a console at all if it doesn't provide additional features. That power has been an important element in marketing is also a fact, since the days of BLAST PROCESSING and SUPER POWER and probably before. There's of course a lot of other things that determine success, from price, release, features, marketing, games, etc, but impressions of power certainly is likely to be one as well to help. I think being in the ballpark is probably fine with the general consumer, but they'll also be faced with "Xbox Series X - the most powerful console yet", which might sway them. It might further be affected by there being actual difference in performance on titles. With 3rd party being a big part of what you play, having the better experience might also lead to preferring a console. Of course, Sony could in this case bank on their faster SSD providing "a better experience", but if they fail overall in terms of other aspects, it might not be enough.
For me, I'm curious about sound. Not 3D sound, but the actual noise made by the consoles. PS4 has been hell in terms of noise and that might be the defining thing to tip things over. If not for me, then for my wife.
The controller is another. PS4 battery time has also been terrible and the lack of battery packs and my wife being terrible at charging things, has lead to a lot of headache in terms of the controller running out of power.
What will sell the next generation is a vision. That was what Sony did so masterfully last time with the PS4. It was allowed to sell this vision due to Microsoft's poor vision for the Xbox One. Being tuned into the consumer's wants, even those they didn't know they wanted. That's what matters. See Microsoft going for battery packs for their controller. Making the consumer have the best experience is important.
Games are also important, but I can only think of a handful of IPs that are selling for me and they're unlikely to show up on either. If anything new IPs are probably far more important and an important part of establishing the next generation. Heck, PS4 launch window games were rather "meh" (outside of Resogun and honestly, that's still likely an enthusiast title) and was probably slightly outdone by the Xbox One.
I'd say both Microsoft and Sony have overall done a few mistakes with regards to the next generation consoles. Microsoft the least, but I feel like they've been a bit too early. In return they've been pretty straight forwards in terms of message and has without doubt been perceived as the most actual console. Thus Sony has had to follow. However, they've presented a lot in some areas, but underrepresented other areas. They've been revealing a lot more about the hardware, but much less about anything else. I don't know if that's necessarily the best. More so they've gone pretty conservative with their controller, which I felt could've used a new feature. Sony tried with the light on the PS4 controller and although it's likely generally seen as a failure, at least it was an attempt at something new. I actually like the touchpad button on the PS4, so I'm curious whether that stays.
Sony has failed by disclosing too much before the hype reveal. What they did masterfully in 2013, they seemingly took a different approach to this time around. Maybe, as some have suggested, they wanted the talk about teraflops to calm down, so it doesn't take the focus from other feature reveals and game reveals. More so they've talked a lot, but not shown anything. So selling a vision becomes harder. What they've done is create a vision of a quick loading console that doesn't waste your time and which provides you with 3D audio. However, that's hard to distinguish itself on compared to a simple thing like "most powerful". Then again, maybe their strategy will work better. I had hoped that they'd follow more along the 2013 strategy though.
This IGN poll is just bollocks though and isn't representative of anything other than IGN readers that saw the poll and bothered voting. My guess based on current data is that Microsoft likely will regain ground. They do have a problem in terms of Europe, Japan and the Middle East (which from my impression at least is Sonyland). However, I don't think that's set in stone, although brand power is definitely affecting things. The Switch has sold very well because it has really sold the vision and Nintendo has handled that marketing really well. It also controls its own market space being a hybrid, as well as having a defining feature that allows ports to be attractive.
Microsoft needs to get into the EU market by focusing on why Xbox is what you want to play Fifa on. It must be able to sell the vision of why going over to Xbox isn't a hassle. It needs some third person action/adventure games. It probably should have a RPG game that'll be defining. Even if they don't tend to be the biggest seller (outside of a few examples), they add value to a lot of gamers in considering a console purchase. In my impression a lot of story driven games tend to draw a lot of women in. Having something that'll appeal to families or groups of people is important, whether more cartoony games and platformers with 2+ player capabilities (hate on Knack if you want, but it definitely was played by my daughter and my wife) or social games like Buzz, Singstar and That's you!. Most important of all is trying to show that you're trying to appeal to those various people and not just make the games, so making it an integral part of the marketing of the console is important. Heck,
look at some of Sony's masterful commercials that really pulled the nostalgia strings for a lot of people.
TL; DR
No about Saturn. However, yes to power not meaning everything (but who has claimed that?).
Poll is crap
I think Microsoft will gain ground on Sony, but they need a good vision and strategy to do well in other areas like EU, JAP and the Middle East.