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[Neuromancer]

if you was around the PS2 days, the same was said about MGS2, FFX and GTA III, its not going to be one game but the combination of a bunch. MS just launched or will, Gears, H5, TR, Forza 6, RR, along with all the 3rd party games BF, FO4, COD. That lineup is amazing, IMO.

I have no doubt a significant number of people are buying XB1s this Fall because of Halo. I know a couple of guys at work who are doing just that. I think you're right that RotTR pads out the lineup a little bit, but taken individually, I don't think it's going to make much of a difference one way or another. My gut feeling is this game has less hype/buzz/excitement than even the last one, which I thought was pretty muted.

 

[Ghost Slayer]

Personally I find it hard to believe a significant number of people are going to buy a ~$350 console for a timed exclusive. Microsoft themselves admitted they did the deal to counter Uncharted 4.

Agreed. It seems like RoTR timed exclusive deal is just temporary solution when MS don't have same Indiana-like game to counter Uncharted 4 in Holiday. I wonder if Sony announced the delay sooner, would MS abandon the deal?

 

[Steverulez]

Agreed. It seems like RoTR timed exclusive deal is just temporary solution when MS don't have same Indiana-like game to counter Uncharted 4 in Holiday. I wonder if Sony announced the delay sooner, would MS abandon the deal?

I doubt it, they seem to like the developer and franchise a lot, I bet they were pretty stoked to get it

 

[Mushroomer25]

The facts are most definitely not simple -- Ultimately, claims that go against basic economic facts like similar products being substitutes requires strong evidence, not conjecture

Except you yourself admitted the products may not even be substitutes, since they're different genres and styles. People have an appetite for more than one game at a time.

Plenty of people subscribed to Netflix to watch House of Cards, and ended up watching plenty of Orange Is The New Black, because of strong internal promotion. Same basic premise.

 

[Garlador]

Except you yourself admitted the products may not even be substitutes, since they're different genres and styles. People have an appetite for more than one game at a time.

Plenty of people subscribed to Netflix to watch House of Cards, and ended up watching plenty of Orange Is The New Black, because of strong internal promotion. Same basic premise.

Yeah, but one Netflix sub covers all shows. There's no financial risk to trying out a new show since it's included in the package.

Tomb Raider isn't included with Fallout 4. It's a separate investment, and thus a separate financial risk for someone not familiar with either the franchise or genre. It's not a compliment like Orange is the New Black is to House of Cards on Netflix; it's the competition competing for your dollars.

 

[Ghost Slayer]

I doubt it, they seem to like the developer and franchise a lot, I bet they were pretty stoked to get it

I doubt it. It's just another PR for them

 

[qko]

Way to screw your third party partners Microsoft. I don't think many people out there would have made the comparison and now the success of Tomb Raider depends on not selling like crap in comparison to Fallout 4. And I see Greenberg is also insisting on responding on Twitter. How has Microsoft HR not yet told this guy to shut his trap?

 

[DR2K]

This is one of those deals that SE really should have thought through. This needs to be delayed to Q1, but I imagine their deal with MS is forcing them to release this holiday.

 

[Maengun1]

Well I will be buying Tomb Raider day one and won't be buying Fallout at all, but I already know I'm an extreme minority.

I'm a massive Tomb Raider fan who will also be picking this up in the first week. I have no interest in Battlefront or Call of Duty at all. I've never played a Fallout or Halo game in my life.

There are dozens of us!

 

[Steverulez]

Im getting Tomb Raider too, undecided on Fallout 4 at launch because I haven't played New Vegas yet... might play it between Halo and COD Blops 3 I guess

 

[Bgamer90]

We'll see. I thought it would have been fine if it was the main Xbox Holiday bundle but MS is just adding on to its competition with the 5-6 other Xbox bundles.

Good reviews should help though.

 

[Obliterator]

TR will likely sell around 10% - 20% of FO4s opening.

So I guess depends on what expectations are

 

[glassgannon]

if you was around the PS2 days, the same was said about MGS2, FFX and GTA III, its not going to be one game but the combination of a bunch. MS just launched or will, Gears, H5, TR, Forza 6, RR, along with all the 3rd party games BF, FO4, COD. That lineup is amazing, IMO.

Anyone interested in that lineup will buy an xbox with or without Tomb raider.Itll have little impact. Also, ps2 was well, ps2.The successor to PS1 and the console market king, when all those games came out.

 

[PeregrinSe7en]

thats cringe worthy

grabbing both
roofles, FO may sell more, but I'm going to love the shit out of TR2015. grabbing both as I love both.

mmm i dontt see how that is cringeworthy.

he's basically describing them for what they are.

 

[hawk2025]

Except you yourself admitted the products may not even be substitutes, since they're different genres and styles. People have an appetite for more than one game at a time.

Plenty of people subscribed to Netflix to watch House of Cards, and ended up watching plenty of Orange Is The New Black, because of strong internal promotion. Same basic premise.

I did no such thing.

No, it's not the same basic premise, because the marginal price of the second Netflix show is zero. C'mon.

 

[Klendathu]

Given the choice of those three games, FO4 is def. the best choice to launch against. Still going to get crushed, though.

Had this come out before Fallout 4 by just a few days I would have happily played this then moved ont to Fallout 4 but releasing after Fallout 4... Well I'm pretty sure I'll be playing Fallout 4 a lot, crazily a lot, so I'll be leaving Rise until much later and the advantage of this is that it'll also be cheaper.

The current/imminent game line up is crazy complelling though, particularly for Xbox One owners!

 

[Sjefen]

A fast look at Amazon top seller list and xb1 Fallout 4 is at 5th spot while TR isnt even in the top 100. I think TR should have been released outside of the holiday season, it needs space to sell well...

 

[whyman]

Is Tomb Raider really a thing anyone except MS cares about anymore?

 

[panty]

Rip Tomb Raider.

 

[PoroAhri]

Eh, Microsoft also believed that persistent online connection and 24-hour check were a good Idea.

 

[Birgitte2004]

It's really too bad they couldn't have moved it up to last week, right before Halo 5. I think that would have probably done the best for them.

 

[dork]

The audiences aren't remotely similar so I can see him being right. More casual fans would probably choose Tomb raider by name recognition of the last one That's not saying fallout is gonna do bad. But I don't see them overlapping audiences

I don't think the audiences are that different. Im excited for both. That being said, there is no way I would pick Tomb Raider up over fallout, considering I truly believe tomb raider is just a reskinned version of the last tomb raider. While fallout...oh baby bring on the crafting. I will pickup tomb raider after I finish fallout for sure though

 

[Nimby]

I feel like this game is going to flop, regardless if it launches with Fallout or not. There was a lot of hype surrounding TR2013 but I'm just not feeling it here, even though this game looks like a step-up to the previous.

Tomb Raider isn't a must-buy for most people, and it certainly would not win out against a Bethesda title.

I hope this isn't the case.

 

[Dibils2k]

for me it was easy decision, since i dont want fallout 4.

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

Well Aaron Greenberg, good luck with that, Fallout 4 is gonna sell a shit ton, I wouldn't fancy going up against it, if Tomb Raider was my game.

 

[PeterLegend]

Why not both gif?

 

[Ashtar]

Both for me, but I will be playing Rise of the Tomb Raider first. The game looks way too good to put on the backburner.

Me too I was going to hold off on fall out because my wife was going to get it on pc but she can't run it so I'll get it for ps4 that way I can still play tomb raider on my xbone

 

[Green Yoshi]

DIfferent genres. Rise of the Tomb Raider is great for a weekend, Fallout 4 should entertain people for months. So it's no problem to buy both.

And Xbox 360 owners don't have much of a choice this holiday season. Call of Duty is multiplayer-only and Fallout 4 was canceled for last gen.

 

[SURGEdude]

Just hard to time, really.

I suspect they would have loved to release it in early October, but it was maybe cutting it too close to be ready in time.

Agreed. My guess is like so many titles today it's coming in pretty hot and for once Greenberg isn't spinning the situation. Based on the scenario laid out I think they made the best choice they could have.

For me both titles are in must play territory. The question that decides which one I play first is gonna come down to Bethesda day one bugs because I'm a bit burned out with the Tomb Raider style thanks to the UC collection. Or if I'd rather wait for the inevitable Fallout patches and get my Raider on in the meantime. Decisions decisions.

 

[Takuan]

Is that a bold statement? TR always struck me as the more popular franchise. I figure with the exclusivity period and inevitable holiday bundles, it'll do very well.

 

[SURGEdude]

Is that a bold statement? TR always struck me as the more popular franchise. I figure with the exclusivity period and inevitable holiday bundles, it'll do very well.

Fallout is far bigger. Somebody posted a few pages back that it sold 20mil+(FO3 I think) on 3 platforms vs TR's 8mil on 5 platforms. But size of franchise alone doesn't dictate if a game sells to expectations or not.

I'm actually especially curious how it'll do on 360. Remember 360 isn't getting Battlefront, FO4, and is getting a multiplayer only shitty downport of CoD. I think the numbers may be more competitive between the two platforms than I would have expected when they announced the 360 version to a ton of head scratching.

 

[SensibleSucker]

TR is a much bigger brand (i.e. non-gamers know it too), but Fallout is bigger in the gaming community, which let's face it, is far more important to sales.

I think it'll do OK. In many ways, the two games cannot be more different.

I really wanted to like Fallout 3, but grew quickly bored of it. New Vegas was even worse. I simply don't have the staying power to go longer than 30 hours with one game. 40 hours is my maximum. Coupled that with the fact that I'm terrible at forgetting controls really quickly if I take a break of longer than a day or so. So I either get bored or I get quite good at a game, have to take a break from it for a bit due to work etc., get terrible at it again, try to start from where I left off and can't progress, so pack the bugger in. Give me 12-20 hours and I'm happy.

I loved TR 2013 and enjoyed the fact I could smash it over a weekend. I just don't have the time to commit to a long-haul with a game,

Buy it on Friday, re-sell it on Monday.

 

[LoveCake]

I have never been able to get into the Fallout games, i am 50/50 on getting TR at launch though, i didn't like the last TR that much.

 

[cakely]

I guess Aaron is totally disregarding what Amazon pre-order rankings are currently looking like.

 

[Militaratus]

I would have had a hard time deciding between Rise of the Tomb Raider and Fallout, however Rise of the Tomb Raider not being on the PS4 made it a surprising easy decision.

 

[EGM1966]

Actually thinking about this further I'm not totally sure I agree this is the better option as it pits an essentially SP title (in terms of what people buy it for) against another SP title (Fallout).

That said launching against two strong online shooters doesn't sound good either.

TBH I think this is going to hurt TR but we'll see. Lara Croft is the more generally known brand but Fallout 4 I'd argue is far more in demand in gaming circles currently and I feel there's much more hype for it that TR.

We'll know soon but I honestly wouldn't be surprised to find TR with decent but unremarkable sales and any spike due to being exclusive wasted (for SE, MS might still get the console spike they wanted via bundles of course).

The way things played out SE couldn't have handled this title worse IMHO though. They complained enough about the reboot initially and only seemed happier when they managed, across multiple platforms/releases to get to a high units sold number (although I'll eat my hat if margin/profits were lower though due to high than average lower price sales volume post launch).

Now the sequel is launching on a rapidly dwindling 360 and a XB1 to fight against three currently stronger and more in demand franchises.

Wonderful. If I sound annoyed it's because I despite finding it flawed I liked the reboot (overcooked horror grittiness aside along with some poor VO work and combat encounters) and hoped to see an improved sequel and I think it's going to sell less due to how it's been handled. The fact I'm going to have to wait for PC or PS version doesn't make me a happier consumer either.

SE really are a pretty damn poorly run company it seems at times.

 

[Killing_Joke]

The only saving grace for TR is if it's part of their BF deals. If not, it will bomb hard.

 

[RibMan]

Unless Fallout 4 is a broken mess, Tomb Raider is going to get eaten alive at retail. This is one of those cases where delaying the game can actually lead to significantly more sales. Crazier things have happened, but all signs point to Tomb Raider doing poorly.

Square Enix loses on this one. It happens.

Note: I think TR will be an even bigger sales disappointment on PS4. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if the PC version outperforms all of the other versions.

 

[Tookay]

Unless Fallout 4 is a broken mess, Tomb Raider is going to get eaten alive at retail. This is one of those cases where delaying the game can actually lead to significantly more sales. Crazier things have happened, but all signs point to Tomb Raider doing poorly.

Square Enix loses on this one. It happens.

Note: I think TR will be an even bigger sales disappointment on PS4. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if the PC version outperforms all of the other versions.

Even if it is a broken mess, it'll be too late for the day one owners to know, and those sales will likely exceed anything that TR can muster.

 

[Melchiah]

Even if it is a broken mess, it'll be too late for the day one owners to know, and those sales will likely exceed anything that TR can muster.

Yeah, Skyrim has already proven that.