Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: “We should be excited about automation”

Mihos

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I am excited for this future because 90% of my job is in automation.

That being said, the problems she listed won't happen in my lifetime. It's funny people are listing truck drivers as being one of the first to be hurt, considering focus in automation in that area is specifically because there is an insane shortage of drivers driving demand for alternatives. Even with that push, infrastructure and legislation, even for limited case by case implementation is at least 20 years away with no setbacks. You will see more driver assisted systems before anything fully automated. At least 15 even for something as limited in scope as an airport shuttle route is so far out because the RIO breakeven point for the devices, maintenance, and required volume is at least 4 generations of tech away from where we are now.
 

TrainedRage

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Can automation replace AOC's scripted talking points? Or has it already happened and we just don't know she is a robot? She needs a personality firmware update but aside from that she/it's doing pretty well.

And I'm sure NPC's will fall right in line for master bot AOCv2.
 
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Progress is getting faster, since the amount of computation that can be done for a given cost doubles, the energy cost halves every 1.5 years approx, due to koomey law halving energy requirements.

That means 1.5 years later twice as much computation can go on, and 1.5 after that 4X as much(edit though doubling rate is now ever 2.6 years, a bit slower due to technical difficulties). Basically you quickly have more computation than the combined computation that was available throughout all of modern history.

Do not be surprised if self driving becomes possible in less than ten years.
The problem comes with retrofitting the millions of trailers on the road today with all the sensors, radar, and everything else needed to conceivably turn a 53' long dry van into something that could be safe enough to operate on the interstate. Commercial vehicles are not built with the planned obsolescence that regular cars are, a semi's engine isn't even broken in until you hit about 100,000 miles. Any autonomous truck and trailer will need to be built from the ground up to incorporate tech like that, a sensor on the cab isn't going to be able to determine the clearance at the tail of the trailer some 60' back, you need multiple sensors all around the trailer.

You also have to take into account the effect weather has on the system. I've had some form of radar system in my truck my entire career, and it uniformly shits the bed in snow conditions. Road spray gets kicked up onto the radar unit, freezes instantly in the air speed, and another layer gets kicked on. 5 minutes from the first contact with snow and the system will be blinded with a half-inch thick layer of ice on the radar unit. That is also not a problem you can solve with better computers.

I'm a driver on a dedicated account to makes deliveries to small businesses all over the South East. I have many customers that I know I have to approach differently for different traffic conditions, and plenty of customers in strip malls where I have make up my mind on site about how to get the truck where it needs to be based on where cars are parked in the parking lot. Get an AI to that level, and I would worry less about truckers losing their jobs, and more about the computers deciding they don't really need people in the first place.

Another problem you will run into is the DOT. The less said about an unelected body of beurocrats who have not spent a single minute behind the wheel of the commercial vehicles they regulate, the better. That being said, they do not move fast, and they do not move with the best interests of the transportation industry in mind. They will be the final arbiter of when these vehicles will be released for general sale, and expect hundreds of thousands of hours of testing in all weather conditions before they will sign off on even limited systems that only work on the interstate.

White collar jobs that require an education, on the other hand, will melt away like ice in spring. I brought up accounting because that's what I went to school for. What use is there for auditors when a CPA firm can offer an accounting suite for their customers to use throughout the year, import their entire document history for the year, have an AI put together the reports and do their taxes, and have a single manager perform a final review.

I would expect that a lot of degrees will become worthless over the course of the next 20 years.
 

JordanN

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Can automation replace AOC's scripted talking points? Or has it already happened and we just don't know she is a robot? She needs a personality firmware update but aside from that she/it's doing pretty well.

And I'm sure NPC's will fall right in line for master bot AOCv2.
SJW's have the brain power of an old NES game.



Actually, that might be giving them too much credit. An Atari 2600 is probably smarter than AOC.
 

OSC

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They will be the final arbiter of when these vehicles will be released for general sale, and expect hundreds of thousands of hours of testing in all weather conditions before they will sign off on even limited systems that only work on the interstate.

Regards sensors they will likely drop in costs with time and be easier to adapt.

As for testing the data on self driving cars which are near road ready will likely be useable to hasten their arrival.

True there are hurdles, but jobs could start being lost in small areas even within ten 10 years
 

Zangiefy360

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1) It can turn out like Star Trek society. Money is basically irrelevant at that point, and technology creates all goods for everyone. People are then free to pursue whatever they want, whether it's art / culture, or enrolling in the academy to explore space and further science.
2) It can also turn out like Total Recall where everyone is just living in a poverty stricken society where corporations own the entire planet, and the air we breathe. People are forced into crime and prostitution and there's open rebellion that is frequently put down by the government, violently.
I think it will be somewhere in the middle. Think Black Mirror season 1 episode 2. People are put into huge buildings, told to peddle for unknown reasons, and live a forced structured life.
 

OSC

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I think it will be somewhere in the middle. Think Black Mirror season 1 episode 2. People are put into huge buildings, told to peddle for unknown reasons, and live a forced structured life.
Haven't seen, but comment reminds me of ergo proxy series. Which had to deal with similar issues of advanced technology and society as well as migrants and climate change.
 

autoduelist

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I would really love to hear some concrete plans to mitigate the glaring concerns with issues like these, from any side of the political spectrum. This grandstanding is getting ridiculous. "Automation is good! Let's be excited about enjoying our wage-independent lives!" -- without a good plan, those people cheering for AOC will be swearing in a few years for not having a solid plan to go along with those propositions and motivational speeches. Automation is near.

I guess this is politics as usual, now.
I would argue we don't necessarily need 'concrete' plans to deal with an amorphous, undefined problem. We did not need concrete plans to deal with the end of the milkman, or the death of blockbuster. Rather, the death of industries to technology usually come with new jobs, some which we can't even envision currently. I'm not saying this will definitely happen in all cases, just that it's a impossible ask to work it all out beforehand.

Dont get me wrong, the death of trucking, for example, will certainly cause some chaos. But the response can't be demanding a concrete solution, since we can't possibly have a concrete solution. Some people will likely go through hard times, but this in and of itself is not any different than any other point in history. The idea that we can avoid having people go through hard times is a relatively recent 'innovation'.

More the point, if the issue is that unskilled and lower skilled jobs are becoming more scarce due to automation, perhaps a big part of the answer is avoiding the influx of more unskilled labor. Perhaps open borders is a terrible idea, because it directly harms the most economically fragile communities. But we have half a nation that seems to be calling for open borders now, which I'd argue is far more directly detrimental to our already poor then automation, at least in the short and mid-term.

Protecting unskilled jobs via legislation doesn't seem particularly smart either, since it would allow other countries to leap frog past us. As a nation, it makes sense to have the strongest, best transportation infrastructure [for example] we can, even if that means some truckers may lose thier job. But perhaps there is a solution that will find itself ... maybe improved long haul transportation will create need for more local human directed transportation. Some of these jobs we're discussing the death of weren't even jobs a century ago.

Perhaps we should focus less on college education and more on forward thinking trades. Let's stop pumping out useless degrees and instead celebrate skilled labor. Providing a path from unskilled to skilled seems a better way to protect people than putting barriers in front of technological advancement. I have a hard time understanding why I'm supposed to bail out a clerk at Walmart losing their job after pricing themselves out by demanding 15/hr plus benefits after their 120k art degree their parents paid for didn't lead to celebrity status. I certainly feel more for those in bad school systems who had a crap education in crap public schools, but it was govt intervention that helped destroy US public schools in the first place. So again, I say we should reemphasize the importance of direct skills and trades across the board.
 

VedderOA

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Dont call someone a ISIS bitch just for being muslim.
This woman is going to be nothing but trouble for the next 50+ years. Her and that bitch from ISIS.

For the rest of my fucking life :messenger_unamused:
 

JordanN

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This woman is going to be nothing but trouble for the next 50+ years. Her and that bitch from ISIS.

For the rest of my fucking life :messenger_unamused:
This is why Trump appointing more Supreme Court judges is important.

Even if the SJW's control the government, the second and first amendments can't be repealed so easily if the judges say no to it.

It's literally the only thing holding America together before it completely turns into a chaotic wasteland.
 
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DGrayson

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This woman is going to be nothing but trouble for the next 50+ years. Her and that bitch from ISIS.

For the rest of my fucking life :messenger_unamused:


Please clarify which bitch from ISIS you refer to thank you.
 

OSC

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This is why Trump appointing more Supreme Court judges is important.

Even if the SJW's control the government, the second and first amendments can't be repealed so easily if the judges say no to it.

It's literally the only thing holding America together before it completely turns into a chaotic wasteland.
Trump bought enough time for the arrival of agi, probably. After that it won't matter.
 

Tesseract

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hey guys that black hole we're heading towards, we should be excited

praise the singularity, everything is going to be all right
 

OSC

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hey guys that black hole we're heading towards, we should be excited

praise the singularity, everything is going to be all right
No we open the gates of heaven but also the gates of hell. There is no telling what crazyness ensues.
Also it is conceivable that a world war could occur near the event or after.
 
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May 22, 2018
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Can automation replace AOC's scripted talking points? Or has it already happened and we just don't know she is a robot? She needs a personality firmware update but aside from that she/it's doing pretty well.

And I'm sure NPC's will fall right in line for master bot AOCv2.
You can say alot about AOC, but trying to say she doesn't have a personality is one of the most disingenuous claims I have ever seen thrown at her.
 
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TrainedRage

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Seriously though you cannot tell me that AOC not having a personality is a real thing. In fact its the opposite. Her having a personality is what has caused her the most problems.
It's hard to say if that's her personality or if she is saying what most on the left are thinking. Much like Trump and his base on the right.

I suppose your right that being outgoing is apparently a strong characteristic of hers. But maybe she is different when off camera.
 

Teletraan1

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Of course she is excited. The more people out of work, the more people dependent on the government to do something the more need for big government. As more people become disenfranchised with the current system the easier it will be to install her brand of government.
 

kiunchbb

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A robot tax is a good way to destroy our manufacturing and robotic industry in one go; moving them all to EU or China.

Unlike skilled worker, robot don't give a shit which country or planet it is working at. At the end we will have even less tax revenue. The road to hell is always paved by good intention.. fuck all central planner wannabe thinking that they have the economy figured out (fk me too for thinking I am right).
 

OSC

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I think the government should buy some of the robot owning companies if too many lose employment, and make the unemployed the new owners of the robot companies. So it remains in private hands, but people are given investments, investments that can't be stolen like the government does with the social security fund.
 

DunDunDunpachi

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I think the government should buy some of the robot owning companies if too many lose employment, and make the unemployed the new owners of the robot companies. So it remains in private hands, but people are given investments, investments that can't be stolen like the government does with the social security fund.
Public ownership over a pool of robot labor sounds intriguing...
 

OSC

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Public ownership over a pool of robot labor sounds intriguing...
To be honest this is all in the event superintelligence doesn't exist or can't be controlled or won't help. With superintelligence self replication is possible, it will master life itself.

Self-replicating robots are enough to allow colonization of the universe, and harnessing the full power of the sun, wealth far vaster than anything dreamed of. Essentially unlimited resources. And this is assuming the laws of physics can't be manipulated(but i believe they can be.)
 
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cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
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Can automation replace AOC's scripted talking points? Or has it already happened and we just don't know she is a robot? She needs a personality firmware update but aside from that she/it's doing pretty well.

And I'm sure NPC's will fall right in line for master bot AOCv2.

We aren't far from China creating an AI AOC for us.
 

cryptoadam

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Feb 21, 2018
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The problem comes with retrofitting the millions of trailers on the road today with all the sensors, radar, and everything else needed to conceivably turn a 53' long dry van into something that could be safe enough to operate on the interstate. Commercial vehicles are not built with the planned obsolescence that regular cars are, a semi's engine isn't even broken in until you hit about 100,000 miles. Any autonomous truck and trailer will need to be built from the ground up to incorporate tech like that, a sensor on the cab isn't going to be able to determine the clearance at the tail of the trailer some 60' back, you need multiple sensors all around the trailer.

You also have to take into account the effect weather has on the system. I've had some form of radar system in my truck my entire career, and it uniformly shits the bed in snow conditions. Road spray gets kicked up onto the radar unit, freezes instantly in the air speed, and another layer gets kicked on. 5 minutes from the first contact with snow and the system will be blinded with a half-inch thick layer of ice on the radar unit. That is also not a problem you can solve with better computers.

I'm a driver on a dedicated account to makes deliveries to small businesses all over the South East. I have many customers that I know I have to approach differently for different traffic conditions, and plenty of customers in strip malls where I have make up my mind on site about how to get the truck where it needs to be based on where cars are parked in the parking lot. Get an AI to that level, and I would worry less about truckers losing their jobs, and more about the computers deciding they don't really need people in the first place.

Another problem you will run into is the DOT. The less said about an unelected body of beurocrats who have not spent a single minute behind the wheel of the commercial vehicles they regulate, the better. That being said, they do not move fast, and they do not move with the best interests of the transportation industry in mind. They will be the final arbiter of when these vehicles will be released for general sale, and expect hundreds of thousands of hours of testing in all weather conditions before they will sign off on even limited systems that only work on the interstate.

White collar jobs that require an education, on the other hand, will melt away like ice in spring. I brought up accounting because that's what I went to school for. What use is there for auditors when a CPA firm can offer an accounting suite for their customers to use throughout the year, import their entire document history for the year, have an AI put together the reports and do their taxes, and have a single manager perform a final review.

I would expect that a lot of degrees will become worthless over the course of the next 20 years.
You will always need accountants and lawyers, AI's wont be able to find all the tricks to hide your money LOL.

Some data entry jerk off will probably automated out of exsistance at some point, but a good accountant who can do your books and hide/launder your money will always be in demand.
 

OSC

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You will always need accountants and lawyers, AI's wont be able to find all the tricks to hide your money LOL.

Some data entry jerk off will probably automated out of exsistance at some point, but a good accountant who can do your books and hide/launder your money will always be in demand.
accounting will be but a passtime a waste of time, monero hides money quite well, and it or similar might be embraced.

In any case true agi is a form of digital life it is as capable or even more capable than any human accountant, more human than human. In fact it can generate more advanced and unpredictable behavior. The growing tension between nations will have them master an ability a machine capable of inventing ideas.
 
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cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
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accounting will be but a passtime a waste of time, monero hides money quite well, and it or similar might be embraced.

In any case true agi is a form of digital life it is as capable or even more capable than any human accountant, more human than human. In fact it can generate more advanced and unpredictable behavior. The growing tension between nations will have them master an ability a machine capable of inventing ideas.
But you will need someone to do your taxes when you sell your crypto :).
 

cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
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by that time i or someone else will have perfected agi.

Buffet strategy long term hold
I think we are talking a couple of decades, which is how long it will take for my shit coins to ever be worth anything LOL.
 

OSC

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I think we are talking a couple of decades, which is how long it will take for my shit coins to ever be worth anything LOL.
I have a bit of bitcoin and plan on getting monero, monero is fundamentally more valuable due to its innate ability to provide the necessary privacy. The problem is whether governments will try to violate the innate right of privacy that citizens should have, that is a fundamental right. IF you take away privacy you create a hell hole, at least with privacy the hell hole that might emerge would be infinitely more comfortable as there would be plausible deniability.
 
Nov 23, 2010
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I would argue we don't necessarily need 'concrete' plans to deal with an amorphous, undefined problem. We did not need concrete plans to deal with the end of the milkman, or the death of blockbuster. Rather, the death of industries to technology usually come with new jobs, some which we can't even envision currently. I'm not saying this will definitely happen in all cases, just that it's a impossible ask to work it all out beforehand.

Dont get me wrong, the death of trucking, for example, will certainly cause some chaos. But the response can't be demanding a concrete solution, since we can't possibly have a concrete solution. Some people will likely go through hard times, but this in and of itself is not any different than any other point in history. The idea that we can avoid having people go through hard times is a relatively recent 'innovation'.

More the point, if the issue is that unskilled and lower skilled jobs are becoming more scarce due to automation, perhaps a big part of the answer is avoiding the influx of more unskilled labor. Perhaps open borders is a terrible idea, because it directly harms the most economically fragile communities. But we have half a nation that seems to be calling for open borders now, which I'd argue is far more directly detrimental to our already poor then automation, at least in the short and mid-term.

Protecting unskilled jobs via legislation doesn't seem particularly smart either, since it would allow other countries to leap frog past us. As a nation, it makes sense to have the strongest, best transportation infrastructure [for example] we can, even if that means some truckers may lose thier job. But perhaps there is a solution that will find itself ... maybe improved long haul transportation will create need for more local human directed transportation. Some of these jobs we're discussing the death of weren't even jobs a century ago.

Perhaps we should focus less on college education and more on forward thinking trades. Let's stop pumping out useless degrees and instead celebrate skilled labor. Providing a path from unskilled to skilled seems a better way to protect people than putting barriers in front of technological advancement. I have a hard time understanding why I'm supposed to bail out a clerk at Walmart losing their job after pricing themselves out by demanding 15/hr plus benefits after their 120k art degree their parents paid for didn't lead to celebrity status. I certainly feel more for those in bad school systems who had a crap education in crap public schools, but it was govt intervention that helped destroy US public schools in the first place. So again, I say we should reemphasize the importance of direct skills and trades across the board.
Exactly.

Here's how you can figure out this is snake oil and a fake problem. Look at the other narratives folks are pushing.

For example, people are blasting Trump's team for forecasting 3% growth. Apparently, that's a big joke and impossible to achieve. If automation was actually delivering the goods, then Trump is lowballing big time how well America is going to do.

Or how about this one. The US's central bank was raising interest rates in part because they were concerned too many people would get a job. You know that pesky polar opposite problem. They weren't raising rates to head off a future world without work.

Do not fall for this con job. You're being played by the UBI crowd.
 
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