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Ampere Analysis - Games console hardware 2021: End of year shortages bite! 02/16/2022

This is an estimate too. There is no "knowing" going on here.
There's no way of knowing because MS doesn't reveal their numbers.

They tell us their Gamepass numbers...but never their hardware numbers for a reason.

About the OP...if Sony had managed to produce the number of consoles they expected (that already accounted for the chip shortage) we'd be looking at another 2 to 1 generation basically.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
One thing's for sure...despite everything the PS5 is doing fine.

This year is gonna be interesting because they are releasing games damn near every month. Hopefully they can get more PS5's out there. Hell, do like MS and start favoring the cheaper console, if that would even help.

Switch remains a beast.

Series consoles...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

On Demand

Member
ITT: logical estimates based off one that has publicly revealed numbers and sales context compared to another where estimates have to be used based on their own data and the consoles sales history........upsets people.

You want a more official number, ask the company that doesn’t want to share them.

People have been estimating since last year Xbox being a little over 10M. Good to finally have it confirmed.
 
ITT: logical estimates based off one that has publicly revealed numbers and sales context compared to another where estimates have to be used based on their own data and the consoles sales history........upsets people.

You want a more official number, ask the company that doesn’t want to share them.

People have been estimating since last year Xbox being a little over 10M. Good to finally have it confirmed.
Nobody is upset, you're just choosing to believe one number over the other because you're a fan of the other console. There is also nothing being confirmed here, tough luck I guess :messenger_smiling_with_eyes:
 

On Demand

Member
Nobody is upset, you're just choosing to believe one number over the other because you're a fan of the other console. There is also nothing being confirmed here, tough luck I guess :messenger_smiling_with_eyes:


The data makes sense? Sorry if that bothers you. This isn’t coming from random people on twitter and Internet forums.

I can say the same about those who believe the 12M number.

Choose who you want to believe. I’ll go with the official company’s data that matches up with reality.
 

On Demand

Member
One thing's for sure...despite everything the PS5 is doing fine.

This year is gonna be interesting because they are releasing games damn near every month. Hopefully they can get more PS5's out there. Hell, do like MS and start favoring the cheaper console, if that would even help.

Switch remains a beast.

Series consoles...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It’s sad there’s all these new games coming out and hardly any PS5’s to buy.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
ITT: We like the estimates that go with our narrative and disregard the ones that don't.

If you want me to add the other estimates from previous FIrms I can. I'm just posting the most recent, and since VGC also posted it I added their interpretation of information as well. We wont know until be get official numbers. Those wont be until March for NPD in april. And I would argue Waiting till april will give us a better picture.
 
From the article:

"Ampere estimates that cumulative sell-through for Series S was ahead of Series X at the end of 2021."

If the total sold was 10.5, that would put Series X below 5.25 right? Which would mean a 3+ to 1 ratio in terms of the higher end machines, right? Am I missing something? I never expected splits like that so soon.
The SS is a nice little well engineered machine. Well deserved, I bet it will take on the Switch while the X takes on the PS5 in the near future, especially given that Sony still has no response to gamepass.

I think that the general availability is a great sign, MS has fixed their availability issues and everyone can get their console! while Sony can't manage their supply chain, these people don't know the first thing about the console market!
my little pony GIF
 

adamsapple

Gold Member
If you want me to add the other estimates from previous FIrms I can. I'm just posting the most recent, and since VGC also posted it I added their interpretation of information as well. We wont know until be get official numbers. Those wont be until March for NPD in april. And I would argue Waiting till april will give us a better picture.

My post wasn't directed at you, rather the posts which are saying "oh i knew Zhuge's estimates were BS".

like, how would anyone know that ? these are all estimates.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
The SS is a nice little well engineered machine. Well deserved, I bet it will take on the Switch while the X takes on the PS5 in the near future, especially given that Sony still has no response to gamepass.

I think that the general availability is a great sign, MS has fixed their availability issues and everyone can get their console! while Sony can't manage their supply chain, these people don't know the first thing about the console market!
my little pony GIF

Looking at Xbox series X they have not fixed their supply issues as Series X chip is quit large so there for allocation for chip per wafer is not super great. Which is why it was smart to have something like Series S. It can be made much easier, and is actually in stock in a lot of places. Which is great for people wanting to get in to xbox or just a console in general.


But to compare Series S to switch is beyond reaching. XBox is still getting outsold by Sony. So for them to take on switch they have to beat PS5 in terms of volume.

Sony has their own response to gamepass its just not going to follow the same path. And Seeing all the rave of Horizon and GT7 I think they are going to be fine.

My post wasn't directed at you, rather the posts which are saying "oh i knew Zhuge's estimates were BS".

like, how would anyone know that ? these are all estimates.

I know Zhuge is an analyst but I believe he is free agent, as in does not work for a firm? But he has access to retail and such. Matt priscilla to me is more reliable because he actually works for a firm. Ampere is fairly large firm so to me they are privy to better data than Zhuge. But that's just my opinion on the matter.

Like I said later in APril we will have a better idea of sales and what Sony/Microsoft allocated for first part of 2022. If Sony was smart they would have withheld a good amount for first half of 2022.
 
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NickFire

Member
The SS is a nice little well engineered machine. Well deserved, I bet it will take on the Switch while the X takes on the PS5 in the near future, especially given that Sony still has no response to gamepass.

I think that the general availability is a great sign, MS has fixed their availability issues and everyone can get their console! while Sony can't manage their supply chain, these people don't know the first thing about the console market!
my little pony GIF
I can agree with your first sentence, but I can't even understand the rest. Those are some interesting takes.
 

Vognerful

Member
Like I said later in APril we will have a better idea of sales and what Sony/Microsoft allocated for first part of 2022. If Sony was smart they would have withheld a good amount for first half of 2022.

From a pure business point, isn't this bad planning?

Comparing to selling a console in let's say September 2021 to a console sold in let's say February 2022 would mean they would lose in subscription month and game sales revenue opportunity in that duration.

Or did you mean to say that if they have planned 20 million console for 2022, they would plan to sell like 15 in first half of 2022?
 

kingfey

Banned
Estimates based on real data from select stores? How many stores? From how many countries? How do they actually do this?

And how can anyone have real sell-through numbers from the whole world? Is Nintendo getting an update ”1 Switch sold!” when I walk into a store in northern Sweden and buy a console? 🤔
Its about sales money on average of the devices.

That is my guess
 

TBiddy

Member
Now this is silly. I'm sure you know this but maybe you forgot, let me refresh your old memory. Lots of xbox fans switched from 360 to PS4, same with PS2 fans switching to 360. Sure there are other factors to why one would switch but saying brand loyalty is the only reason why its chosen is rather....well, silly.

What are you on about? I explicitly stated that there are multiple reasons (exclusives, brand loyalty, friends, advertising to name a few in the very post you're replying to). I thought you were past your console warrior days, but apparantly not.
 
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Stuart360

Gold Member
So do people think these are pretty accurate then?. I thought Series was around 12mil, and PS5 around 18mil?. Didnt Microsoft say the Series consoles were the fastest selling Xbox yet, and XB1 was around 11mil at this point otr something?
 

demigod

Member
What are you on about? I explicitly stated that there are multiple reasons (exclusives, brand loyalty, friends, advertising to name a few in the very post you're replying to). I thought you were past your console warrior days, but apparantly not.
What are you on about? I never said exclusives were the only reason. Always pointing fingers about warriors yet you're one of the biggest ones. You really should get past being a console warrior.
 

NickFire

Member
So do people think these are pretty accurate then?. I thought Series was around 12mil, and PS5 around 18mil?. Didnt Microsoft say the Series consoles were the fastest selling Xbox yet, and XB1 was around 11mil at this point otr something?
My understanding is the old numbers were shipped, and these are sell through. Based on the discounts I've seen here and there for Series S lately, the shipped vs sold seems fairly reasonable for the dichotomy.
 
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TBiddy

Member
What are you on about? I never said exclusives were the only reason. Always pointing fingers about warriors yet you're one of the biggest ones. You really should get past being a console warrior.

I'll just leave this here;

If you don’t need 1st party games to sell consoles, then why did the xbox one do so bad compared to ps4 and switch? Oh right it’s because those consoles have exclusives that people want to play.

Have a pleasant evening.
 
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demigod

Member
I'll just leave this here;



Have a pleasant evening.
What a fail "gotcha". Never did I say its "the only reason folks buy consoles". You should try reading more instead of budding in and "cherry pick" things to make a point.
 
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mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
From the article:

"Ampere estimates that cumulative sell-through for Series S was ahead of Series X at the end of 2021."

If the total sold was 10.5, that would put Series X below 5.25 right? Which would mean a 3+ to 1 ratio in terms of the higher end machines, right? Am I missing something? I never expected splits like that so soon.

This is the undercover point that people like me and others were making 3 years ago when the Series S was just a rumor. The reason I thought MS wouldn't make a lower powered next-gen console was that it'll obviously sell more than the higher spec one if the price was right. And then you are stuck with the bolded as your ratio.
 

TBiddy

Member
What a fail "gotcha". Never did I say its "the only reason folks buy consoles". You should try reading more instead of budding in and "cherry pick" things to make a point.
Since it was the only reason you mentioned, it stands to reason it was the only reason you could think of. But I'm glad you listened and accepted that there are multiple reasons that people stay in their current ecosystem.
 

demigod

Member
Since it was the only reason you mentioned, it stands to reason it was the only reason you could think of. But I'm glad you listened and accepted that there are multiple reasons that people stay in their current ecosystem.
Like I said, maybe you should read more instead of trying to jump on me to defend your buddy like the console warrior you are. I'm glad you listened and accepted that I never said exclusives were all that matter. Now lets get back to the sales between the two shall we.
 

Astral Dog

Member
These shortages must really suck for Sony and MS, they’d probably be able to sell twice the current amount if they were able to produce more.
Apparently the Switch is also gonna get hit by shortages this year, and thats one reason it sold less last month, i heard Nintendo expects all year to be affected but would need to look for source
 
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mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Apparently the Switch is also gonna get hit by shortages this year, and thats one reason it sold less last month, i heard Nintendo expects all year to be affected but would need to look for source

How were they NOT affected in 2021? But will be in 2022?
 

Shmunter

Gold Member
It’s bizzare to me with the lack of PS5 and X that the S isn’t moving the needle more. It is indeed available in abundance.

I should have given more credit to the common plebs knowing not to get into a half cut next gen product.

I’m very pleased for it not becoming the de facto target platform.
 
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kingfey

Banned
It’s bizzare to me with the lack of PS5 and X that the S isn’t moving the needle more. It is indeed available in abundance.

I should have given more credit to the common plebs knowing not to get into a half cut next gen product.

I’m very pleased for it not becoming the de facto target platform.
Did you see how much xbox sold?

XSS played a big part. You can check Japan too. The split there is 55/45.

2 more years, and xss would sell more than xsx.
 

Shmunter

Gold Member
Did you see how much xbox sold?

XSS played a big part. You can check Japan too. The split there is 55/45.

2 more years, and xss would sell more than xsx.
Was expecting much higher based on availability. It’s circumstantial what’s happening with strong evidence people are holding back.
 

TBiddy

Member
Like I said, maybe you should read more instead of trying to jump on me to defend your buddy like the console warrior you are. I'm glad you listened and accepted that I never said exclusives were all that matter. Now lets get back to the sales between the two shall we.

I'm not able to read your thoughts, so I'll stick to replying to what you're actually posting.

Was expecting much higher based on availability. It’s circumstantial what’s happening with strong evidence people are holding back.

I agree. The XSS is mainly a second console for the bedroom or a cheap console for the kids. Most early adopters are waiting for the XSX. Or, I'm not sure we can call them early adopters anymore, but you get my point.
 
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kingfey

Banned
Like I said twitter people and forum dwellers vs an official company that gets paid to do these kinds of estimates.

Choose to believe whatever. I know which makes more sense.
This official company is doing estimates too.

The ps5, and switch data are known to everyone. While xbox, nobody's knows it.

Unless we have official numbers from MS, everything is estimates.
 

kingfey

Banned
Was expecting much higher based on availability. It’s circumstantial what’s happening with strong evidence people are holding back.
Your average Joe really doesn't care that much about graphics.
They all want to play their favorite games. Most dont push the graphics that much.
The Last of us 2 can run on base ps4 from 2013. And that is 2020 game.
As long as the system can run the game, people will buy it.

The main strong of Xss is the price, and gamepass. It's like switch with portables.

Then there is Activision purchase, which would make the system a must buy.
 

Bonfires Down

Gold Member
Here in Sweden the tracker I used to get a PS5, which check a couple big stores every 30 seconds, still show 0 for both next gen consoles today.

You can find Xbox Series X for about $800 at some douche stores though which I’m assume is selling scalped consoles.

Same for PS5, which is even more of a unicorn, goes for roughly $1000.

Xbox Series S is readily available everywhere for $340.
I'm in Sweden. What is this tracker?
 

Shmunter

Gold Member
Your average Joe really doesn't care that much about graphics.
They all want to play their favorite games. Most dont push the graphics that much.
The Last of us 2 can run on base ps4 from 2013. And that is 2020 game.
As long as the system can run the game, people will buy it.

The main strong of Xss is the price, and gamepass. It's like switch with portables.

Then there is Activision purchase, which would make the system a must buy.
Hand on heart that’s what I expected. But with XsS being readily available it’s seemingly not the case in the main and people want the full fat ones sticking to last gen till they can get it. The alternative would be people simply aren’t buying Xbox nowhere near as much as they should be - doubt it.
 

demigod

Member
There is. It's just that you don't want to hear about it.

These are new consoles. They need new chips, which is on shortages now.

If there was no shortage, xbox numbers would have been higher.
No there isn't. You have no proof to back it up. There is no shortage of xss. You can get it now and you could've gotten it in January. Stop with your lies.
 

Woopah

Member
Looking at Xbox series X they have not fixed their supply issues as Series X chip is quit large so there for allocation for chip per wafer is not super great. Which is why it was smart to have something like Series S. It can be made much easier, and is actually in stock in a lot of places. Which is great for people wanting to get in to xbox or just a console in general.


But to compare Series S to switch is beyond reaching. XBox is still getting outsold by Sony. So for them to take on switch they have to beat PS5 in terms of volume.

Sony has their own response to gamepass its just not going to follow the same path. And Seeing all the rave of Horizon and GT7 I think they are going to be fine.



I know Zhuge is an analyst but I believe he is free agent, as in does not work for a firm? But he has access to retail and such. Matt priscilla to me is more reliable because he actually works for a firm. Ampere is fairly large firm so to me they are privy to better data than Zhuge. But that's just my opinion on the matter.

Like I said later in APril we will have a better idea of sales and what Sony/Microsoft allocated for first part of 2022. If Sony was smart they would have withheld a good amount for first half of 2022.
Zhuge works for Niko Partners, a market research and consultancy firm which specialises in the Asia market.
This is the undercover point that people like me and others were making 3 years ago when the Series S was just a rumor. The reason I thought MS wouldn't make a lower powered next-gen console was that it'll obviously sell more than the higher spec one if the price was right. And then you are stuck with the bolded as your ratio.
Why would Microsoft care that they have sold more S than X in the long term? They still get software and subscription money either way
Apparently the Switch is also gonna get hit by shortages this year, and thats one reason it sold less last month, i heard Nintendo expects all year to be affected but would need to look for source
How were they NOT affected in 2021? But will be in 2022?
Switch has been impacted by shortages since the 2nd half of last year. Things aren't too bad in Europe or Asia but Nintendo is struggling a lot in North America.
 

kingfey

Banned
Hand on heart that’s what I expected. But with XsS being readily available it’s seemingly not the case in the main and people want the full fat ones sticking to last gen till they can get it. The alternative would be people simply aren’t buying Xbox nowhere near as much as they should be - doubt it.
Readily available does not mean it does not sell.
The production of xss is easier, and they can be restocked fast, hence why its available.

People will not play Starfield on xbox one.
 
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