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Analyst: Lifetime Switch sales to eclipse PS2, NO Switch Pro, new Nintendo console in 2024

FStubbs

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Right because releasing Wii motion plus and an entire new Zelda 3D game , Mario galaxy 2, monster hunter 3, Metroid other M, and Xenoblade was totally not keeping up the momentum. And they also released a $99 Wii late in its life cycle too, the console just stopped selling.
It wasn't. What the Wii missed were more games like Wii Sports which built on the expanded gamer audience that the console originally sold to. New Super Mario bros Wii sold a lot of Wiis as well but I think that was a different set of gamers that Nintendo didn't address until the Switch.
 

Marty-McFly

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IMO Switch has zero chance of beating PS2, and there are a lot more gamers today than in PS2's glory years.
Unless you are going to include 'Switch 2' sales, which wouldnt be fair imo.
I mean, your math is way off if you think it has zero chance of beating the PS2, it's already closing in on 2/3rds of its overall sales in less than 5 years when PS2 was on the market for close to 13 years.

While it's true there are more gamer's now, I would considering Switch surpassing PS2's sales more of an achievement, because it didn't sell primarily off the back of being and incredibly cost efficient dvd player, it won't be on the market for 13 years, and it hasn't had any price drops much less dropping down to $99.99.
 

Fafalada

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This is true the base model wouldn't have been able to handle VR well at all the spec bump put it right with the GTX 970 level requirement at the time
At 60hz base ps4 compares relatively to 970 at 90hz.
It also runs every psvr game, and is substantially more powerful than any standalone headset (especially quest 1)and those handle VR just fine in their own right.
 
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Andyliini

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There still is this ages onf narrative of "Switch sales falling of a cliff"? I swear it has existed ever since first started selling high numbers. First it was supposed to happen after the launch window, then after 2017 when "all the games were released", then in 2018 when there were no games, then again in 2020 when the next generation consoles launch and now we have moved to 100 million sold.

I swear, the narrative never stops, the goalpost is just moved to fit it. I quess it earns bragging rights when they are finally right, but that's just common sense.
 

Captain Toad

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They do, but the 3rd party support MS and Sony receive is just far greater.

Even by the very publishers you stated. MS and Sony get stuff like Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, FF MMOs, Resident Evils etc day 1

I'm enjoying the shit out of Resident Evil 8 on PS4, something that literally doesn't exist on Switch, in fact.....most of the big AAA 3rd party titles coming this fall....are not coming to Switch.

So...I agree with you that Capcom and Square put out exclusive stuff on Nintendos system, but the amount that is being missed is massive.

Giving someone Monster Hunters stories and be like minus Monster Hunter World, DMC5, Resident Evil remake 2 and 3 and RE8 lol I agree they are getting support, but the support MS and Sony get by 3rd party is so fucking massive, its by default. As in, when they announce a new Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, AC, Call Of Duty, Yakuza etc come the fuck on, we all know 99% of the time, its PS, XB, PC annnnnnd skip Nintendo, like MOST times, in fact it would be a new story in and of its self if Ubisoft was like "Ok Watchdogs 4 coming out, PS5, PC, XB and ummm switch now we have new things pla-"

Fans "holy fucking shit did you just sa-"

Ubisoft " come on, folks relax, just trying to get thru this press event" lol

This is one of the platforms where if you own it, expect majority of the biggest titles to skip it entirely. I agree Square and Capcom put out some titles on it, but shit even the publishers you just name put the MAJORITY of their content on Sony and MS consoles.
I agree in that I would never own JUST a Nintendo console. But, I never would not own a Nintendo console. I could get by with just a PS5 and Switch and not Xbox or PC, because of all the overlap between everything else.

Nintendo's library is mostly unique so it is a must-have in addition to one of the other more traditional platforms.
 
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They do, but the 3rd party support MS and Sony receive is just far greater.

Even by the very publishers you stated. MS and Sony get stuff like Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, FF MMOs, Resident Evils etc day 1

I'm enjoying the shit out of Resident Evil 8 on PS4, something that literally doesn't exist on Switch, in fact.....most of the big AAA 3rd party titles coming this fall....are not coming to Switch.

So...I agree with you that Capcom and Square put out exclusive stuff on Nintendos system, but the amount that is being missed is massive.

Giving someone Monster Hunters stories and be like minus Monster Hunter World, DMC5, Resident Evil remake 2 and 3 and RE8 lol I agree they are getting support, but the support MS and Sony get by 3rd party is so fucking massive, its by default. As in, when they announce a new Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, AC, Call Of Duty, Yakuza etc come the fuck on, we all know 99% of the time, its PS, XB, PC annnnnnd skip Nintendo, like MOST times, in fact it would be a new story in and of its self if Ubisoft was like "Ok Watchdogs 4 coming out, PS5, PC, XB and ummm switch now we have new things pla-"

Fans "holy fucking shit did you just sa-"

Ubisoft " come on, folks relax, just trying to get thru this press event" lol

This is one of the platforms where if you own it, expect majority of the biggest titles to skip it entirely. I agree Square and Capcom put out some titles on it, but shit even the publishers you just name put the MAJORITY of their content on Sony and MS consoles.

finally! someone who's able to look at it critically without having an emotional meltdown because i didnt worship nintendo. you would think they could do no wrong the way some people go on here. nintendo by default misses out on the biggest 3rd party games in the world. they have big droughts in between their major 1st party games. how is that not an issue? they dont get a pass just eceause they are selling millions of consoles. does sony get a pass for their mistakes even though they are selling PS5's like hotcakes? no! just the mere mention of jim ryan gets a 10 page therad about the imminent death of playstation.
 
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BattleScar

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ps4 sales have absolutely cratered, it might not even reach 120 million (as if that's bad sales right?) given the limited manufacturing and the 100% back-compatibility, I doubt Sony will make many more ps4 consoles as every ps4 they make reduces how many ps5s they can make
No, cause PS4 is on 16nm not 7nm. They do not share wafers.
 
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tr1p1ex

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Wii sales started dropping in 2010. Partly imo because of kinect and move, and sony’s more blue market approach to marketing with a $299 ps3 redesign. But nintendo handheld sales peaked with DS at 150 million +. And 3DS fell hard after it hit 80 million (before the switch lite.) There is a saturation point is what I am saying. We shall see, but once xcloud and remoteplay features become more prominent and easier to stream in a couple years, and tablets like the steam platform become more prominent spec wise, I do not expect switch to be doing 15 million a year numbers . The switch will do well even after it hits 100 million I believe but idk how well it’s going to do passed 110 considering the trends i’ve seen with nintendo platforms.
Yep there is a saturation pt for all consoles but why NIntendo handheld sales peaked at 150 million a few gens ago is a different discussion than why any one handheld or console peaked.

Smartphones came in and changed the market for dedicated gaming handhelds. Which is the big reason why the 3ds wasn't able to get close to the DS. AT the same time many expected worse sales for the 3ds. They thought smartphones would decimate gaming handhelds like they did to point and shoot digital cameras. Wii dropped a bit in 2010. But still was a good year. They fell over a cliff in 2011. DS sales wall coincides with the 3ds release and rise of smartphones.

Nintendo platforms don't have a trend any different than other consoles. Wii was an exception. PS2 was an exception. The pattern is console sales drop when the new one is announced/released. Of course the timing of the new console is based on the previous console reaching some sort of saturation pt which in the past has been 5-7 years with the trend being of having longer cycles nowadays than in the past.

Right now It's 4 1/2 years post Switch launch. Nintendo hasn't launched a next gen platform later than 6 years 3 months after the launch of the previous platform. Obviously not a law of physics but it is definitely a lot of gravitational pull on the Switch's lifespan and when the next Nintendo platform will arrive. Cloud gaming isn't going to get traction enough anytime soon to affect the Switch given how late we are on the cycle. And, if anything, cloud gaming would help the Switch and Switch 2. If cloud gaming hurts any platform it will likely be the PS and Xbox. At the same time Switch sales after the next ~2 years are very iffy because of where we are in the cycle. Another sign of the next Nintendo platform coming is when they've launched all their big franchises. And those boxes are checked. ...so I definitely wouldn't predict sales in the 3rd and 4th year out from here. But 120 million seems very doable given Nintendo thinks they will sell 25 million Switches this year and reach 110 million and since they have lots of room to lower price and bundle games to get there. And since the Switch OLED will launch in just over 2 months.

The xfactors that could affect sales would be the acceptance of the Switch OLED and any pandemic hangover. Pandemic could have front loaded sales ie pushed sales forward and pandemic maybe more mainstream buyers to buy in who might not have otherwise bothered which could lead to a bigger drop off when the pandemic effect wears off. Switch OLED could be unappealing and/or the price point seen as too high. But Pandemic effect also could extend the lifespan of the Switch too. The greater install base has brought more games and interest and that could result in a longer generation. The pandemic could have delayed games that now will be released in the next year or two and keep interest up.
 
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Bo_Hazem

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I think it will have no impact whatsoever on the Switch's sales, it's a nice piece of kit, but in reality how many P.C gamers are going to want to give up their high spec rigs, and play on a small screen at much lower quality, niche market product at best, total bomb worst case scenario.

I know some would love to, people who usually work in the field for like 2 weeks out of their homes (oil fields here) and similar situations. Yes, it's a niche but it's good to push Nintendo to man up and bring a higher specced Switch.
 
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Akuji

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I doubt there will be stop-gap consoles this cycle. The only reason we got them last time was because they went cheap with mobile Jaguar CPUs. The CPUs this time around are more than enough to cover the entire generation.
So what ur saying is that last time we did get an upgrade because of slow cpus which is why ps4pro and xbox one x continued to use the very same CPU? Doesnt really add up for me.

Base and Pro Version both Used the same cpu only the clockspeed Was diffrent
 
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But … It had a massive price-drop, it’s called the switch lite
That's not really the same thing.

The PS2 launched at $299. It's price was $149 by this point in its lifecycle. There were no SKUs still selling at the launch price. Nintendo Switch launched at $299, and it's still selling at that price four years in. The PS2's price had been cut in half by this point, but Nintendo hasn't needed any price reductions to keep the momentum going. I don't think people appreciate how unprecedented the Switch is. They have an ace up their sleeve and they never needed to play it because they're already holding four.
 

Marty-McFly

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I know some would love to, people who usually work in the field for like 2 weeks out of their homes (oil fields here) and similar situations. Yes, it's a niche but it's good to push Nintendo to man up and bring a higher specced Switch.

Nintendo has actually had viable competitor's historically (sometimes thrashing them in sales) and the press screaming at them to release more powerful hardware for well over a decade, yet they haven't budged... but it's the "niche" SteamDeck that's finally going to push them over the edge and "man up"?

This is pure insanity. Fan fiction. Nope. Never.
 
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Marty-McFly

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BTW, that is not to say Nintendo won't release a somewhat powerful Switch 2 or a refresh.

If they are going to stick with the Switch form factor, about the only thing they can to upgrade is memory, screen, and archicecture,

which I'm sure will be efficient, modern NVIDIA tech that does not compromise on power or battery tech, even if he's not offering the same raw horsepower. That would probably be what I'm expecting.
 
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UnNamed

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People need to understand why PS2 reached 150M consoles first, and why it is hardly repeatable.
-PS2 has benefited from a very long tail after the next gen release.
-PS360 gen started with lot of uncertainties: 360 was promising, but many waited for PS3. PS2 took a huge advantage because of this. In fact PS2 sold 30M consoles after 2 years from the beginning of the next gen, an anomaly. For example PS4 sold just 5M consoles before PS5 launch despite the huge sales it had before, while Wii sold just 3M consoles a year after the WiiU release. Before it was retired, PS2 sold 6M consoles that year.
-PS360 artificially maintained an high price thanks to different HDDs, even in the end of the cycle the main 360/PS3 SKU were sold for 300$. PS2 cost less than 99$.
-PS2 was popular in some secondary markets before these countries decided to introduce heavy taxes to block foreign products during PS360 era.
-Sony was enough smart to think to PS2 as a entry level gaming platform for Sony games. Now PS4 is still dead because "we believe in generations", ONE have no sense with Series S, 360 was quickly retired ( in that sense, Mattrick words were right), Wii was followed by a failure.
-PS2 was the ultimate multimedia device. DVD were still popular in 2011, so PS2 still was the smartest choice for a DVD player to people not interested in games.

We can think Nintendo can sell 20M of consoles in the next 2 years and launch a new console before march 2023, and rebrand the Switch as a entry level portable device like the 2DS for other 2/3 years. But even with this they must hope in some failure from Sony and Microsoft in the meanwhile.
 
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Mozza

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IMO Switch has zero chance of beating PS2, and there are a lot more gamers today than in PS2's glory years.
Unless you are going to include 'Switch 2' sales, which wouldnt be fair imo.
I think saying it has zero chance is taking things a bit far, the Switch has a lot of momentum and with the new oled model coming out, you could see a lot of existing owners jumping to the new model.
 

Stuart360

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I think saying it has zero chance is taking things a bit far, the Switch has a lot of momentum and with the new oled model coming out, you could see a lot of existing owners jumping to the new model.
Well thats just my opinion. Isnt Switch like 60mil behind PS2 or somehting?, thats a lot to make up before Switch 2 releases.
 

EDMIX

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I agree in that I would never own JUST a Nintendo console. But, I never would not own a Nintendo console. I could get by with just a PS5 and Switch and not Xbox or PC, because of all the overlap between everything else.

Nintendo's library is mostly unique so it is a must-have in addition to one of the other more traditional platforms.

Hey np, I'm not trying to argue against what you like, simply pointing out just how much AAA 3rd party titles are missed. I too love their platforms, but must point out the obvious as Godfather makes many good points as do you.
finally! someone who's able to look at it critically without having an emotional meltdown because i didnt worship nintendo. you would think they could do no wrong the way some people go on here. nintendo by default misses out on the biggest 3rd party games in the world. they have big droughts in between their major 1st party games. how is that not an issue? they dont get a pass just eceause they are selling millions of consoles. does sony get a pass for their mistakes even though they are selling PS5's like hotcakes? no! just the mere mention of jim ryan gets a 10 page therad about the imminent death of playstation.


Agreed. You can like a company and still be able to state whats going on regards to 3rd party support. The biggest 3rd party titles, simply do not go on Nintendo platforms and the more generations go on like this, the more you'll have core consumers only knowing that IP on certain platforms.

For example. Someone who plays Call Of Duty or AC for the first time will know that IP on PS4 or XONE etc, when they buy a PS5 or PS6, even if Switch 2 or 3 is like "ok, we have Call Of Dutyz now", well they just spent several generations or even 1 generation and hundreds of hours with a group of friends on PS or XB, the controller lay out..... they also know not of when that support will end when Nintendo puts out yet again another gimped platform.

They just don't put out systems that are powerful enough with consistently to grow such a install base. THAT install base doesn't happen in 1 gen, but several, so those consumers know many of those IP on certain systems and its not enough to get 1 or 2 to make them go on and not have PS or XB.

Its like...so you love Doom, but skipped 3?
You love RE series, but shit skipped RE2 remake, RE3 remake, RE7, RE8? The fuck? lol

You love FF, but yet to play XV, XIII, can't play XVI?

You love Kingdom Hearts, but didn't play 1-3?

Hear how crazy this shit sounds Captain Toad Captain Toad ? Not saying someone can't own a Nintendo system, simply that I'm not sure how any fans of such 3rd party titles can legit ONLY own that platform as it misses so many IP, getting a XB makes more sense to continue to get some of those IP at this point. Literally....if someone loves stuff like Resident Evil, Kingdom Hearts, it might literally make more sense to own XB, then Nintendo, but that is a choice they made when they wanted to focus on the portable market solely (which I'm not against mind you). I think it makes sense for what they are doing and they can do very well without the 3rd party support, don't get me wrong.

I'm simply bringing up that its way too much content that is missed to dismiss Godfathers point. I do how ever agree with both of you, simply to different degrees.
 
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Marty-McFly

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Well thats just my opinion. Isnt Switch like 60mil behind PS2 or somehting?, thats a lot to make up before Switch 2 releases.
The only thing really stopping the Switch from blowing by the PS2 is if Nintendo yanks it off the market. If it stays on the market as long as the DS it has the potential to sell much more.

It's selling much faster than PS2 and will be at over 100 million in its fifth year while PS2 took 13 years to sell 150 million dropping to $99.99.

I think it will be on the market for a while yet as Nintendo said it's lifecycle is only half over.
 
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MrFunSocks

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There still is this ages onf narrative of "Switch sales falling of a cliff"? I swear it has existed ever since first started selling high numbers. First it was supposed to happen after the launch window, then after 2017 when "all the games were released", then in 2018 when there were no games, then again in 2020 when the next generation consoles launch and now we have moved to 100 million sold.

I swear, the narrative never stops, the goalpost is just moved to fit it. I quess it earns bragging rights when they are finally right, but that's just common sense.
The narrative is still pushed, especially here and on Reeeeee, because they're sony strongholds due to the install base of Sony consoles over the last 2 generations. Like it or not, this place didn't get the widely used nickname of SonyGAF for no reason. If it's not a sony console, it must be dismissed and ridiculed and have FUD spread against it. That's just the way it is with some people, who form the majority of gaming sites.

I think the Switch will outsell the PS2 to become the highest selling console of all time. It has been out for what, 5 years, and still hasn't had a price drop? That's insane. It's selling 20+ million a year at its launch price 5 years later. The second the switch hits like $250 it will be selling 30 million a year, and at that rate it'll overtake the PS2 in less than 2 years from then. $199 and it could break whatever the all time console sales in a year is, if it already hasn't.
 
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TLZ

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The only thing really stopping the Switch from blowing by the PS2 is if Nintendo yanks it off the market. If it stays on the market as long as the DS it has the potential to sell much more.

It's selling much faster than PS2 and will be at over 100 million in its fifth year while PS2 took 13 years to sell 150 million dropping to $99.99.

I think it will be on the market for a while yet as Nintendo said it's lifecycle is only half over.
God damn you're such a liar. Don't post tales from your ass. When you're posting such stats as facts, the least you could do is post your sources.

1st of all, the PS2 sold 81mil+ in 4 years 8 months. 4 years if you want to start from the worldwide release in holidays 2000. For around 8 months the PS2 was only sold in Japan, while the Switch went worldwide from day 1. Keep that in mind.

2nd, the PS2 sold through a 100mil during Nov 2005. That's 5 years after its worldwide release.

3rd, the PS2 reached its 150mil milestone in Jan 2011. That's around 10 years 2 months from its worldwide release.

Sources: SIE. Wiki.
 

Marty-McFly

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God damn you're such a liar. Don't post tales from your ass. When you're posting such stats as facts, the least you could do is post your sources.

1st of all, the PS2 sold 81mil+ in 4 years 8 months. 4 years if you want to start from the worldwide release in holidays 2000. For around 8 months the PS2 was only sold in Japan, while the Switch went worldwide from day 1. Keep that in mind.

2nd, the PS2 sold through a 100mil during Nov 2005. That's 5 years after its worldwide release.

3rd, the PS2 reached its 150mil milestone in Jan 2011. That's around 10 years 2 months from its worldwide release.

Sources: SIE. Wiki.
My data here is a little different. No need to accuse me of being a liar. Switch has sold much faster than PS2 any way you want to look at it, and without pricedrops.


Lifespan2000–2013
Introductory price¥39,800, US$299, £299, F2,990, DM869[1][2][3][4]
Discontinued
  • JP: December 28, 2012[5]
  • WW: January 4, 2013[6]
Units shipped155.0 million (as of March 31, 2012)
 
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noshten

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Switch Shipments 2020
Q1: 3.29 million
Q2: 5.68 million
Q3: 6.85 million
Q4: 11.57 million
TOTAL: 27.39 million


Q1: 4.73 million
Q2: ?
Q3: ?
Q4: ?


Last year Q1 was severally impacted by the shortages that came about due to COVID and during Q1 this year we know that Switch managed 4.73 million shipped, this means that it ended up well ahead of last year's result.

Now Q2 was huge for Nintendo, the month after New Horizon launch it achieved massive numbers in North America for example while this year we know April & May were down YoY, while June where shortages were once again a factor in NA last year we saw YoY growth for the Switch in the latest NPD. So at worse we are looking at 200K to 500K decline in North America
However in Japan Q2 was actually up during Q2 according to Famitsu. Sales of the Switch the past Quarter were 1.25 million compared to 960K last year, so any losses in North America are covered by growth in Japan.
East Asia generally follows trends similar to Japan and thus it's likely that Switch continued to see some growth in those region as this year Switch received many new titles that ended up topping the chart in South Korea & Taiwan while Ring Fit has continued to be a major system seller in the region. China the main catalyst for growth in the region, as the Switch has been pushed by Tencent pretty heavily for the past year and half after the initial launch. The growth in East Asia will offset any losses we might see in Europe for example.
In Europe we don't know what the situation looks like but even if it's down it would be just a slight decline compared to last year, outside of the UK where it might be a bit more pronounced.
Finally we have developing markets which are likely to contribute to YoY growth in Q2, Nintendo entered the Brazilian market in September of last year, so Q1/Q2 should gain additional growth there this year compared to last when they had not launched officially. Eastern Europe is another market where Nintendo hasn't traditionally been very successful but since the launch of New Horizon they've been heavily advertising there. There are also a few other smaller markets that are likely to see YoY growth, as shortages made Switch pretty unavalaible last year.
This is why I think when the results drop we might see Q2 of 2021 actually be closer to 6 million with at least 100K growth YoY.


Q3 is where I think 2020 might catch up to 2021, this will be mainly due to OLED announcement actually impacting demand for the current Hybrid Model - we've already seen this in Japan where Switch has finally become readily available and isn't selling with a mark-up. Demand for the old hybrid model seemingly has gone down so compared to last year Q3 might see a decline of 2 or even 3 million units.

However the launch of the OLED, coupled with Pokemon Remakes, Super Mario Party, Metroid, SMTV and a bunch of third party titles hitting the console this fall in my opinion will ensure 2021 ends up with higher shipped numbers than last year. If Switch manages to surpass 28 million this year than at a worse case scenario we would be looking at 22 million next year with huge titles already confirmed in the form of Splatoon 3, Pokémon Legends: Arceus & Breath of the Wild sequel, this will be combined with other titles Nintendo is likely to launch and growing support from Japanese third parties.
Just with these two years we are looking at 130 million units shipped by the end of 2022

If we look at Japan where Switch dominates 90% of the hardware and software market in 2021 - we will notice that since November of last year Third Party companies have sold more software than the previous years combined.
With PlayStation becoming a niche brand in Japan it basically means that unlike past years Switch hardware momentum within the country and East Asian markets will actually be aided by a consistent stream of Japanese third party games which hasn't been the case previously. Whether it's the makers of Summer Vacation making a Switch exclusive Shin-chan game; Konami deciding to not even make a PlayStation version of a historically PlayStation franchise like Baseball Spirits, Capcom apparently working on a Resident Evil: Revelation follow up exclusive to the Switch or Koei Tecmo going a full multiplat strategy for Samurai Warriors & Dynasty Warriors franchises that historically been heavily aligned to PlayStation devices - the trends are very clear.
Outside of AAA Japanese Third Party games which aren't that many to begin with everything else in 2022 will focus on the Switch as the PS5's software sales in the region are horrendous.
This last aspect is overlooked in this thread, as people are saying Switch isn't getting many games, but it's simply not the case - it's been the default system for indies ever since launching and now is the default system for about 90% of Japanese third party games with PS/XSX/PC exclusives like Scarlet Nexus for example outright bombing in Japan. It's a major risk not to have the Switch as part of your strategy with how quickly the PlayStation ecosystem has declined in the country and similar trends are observed in South Korea and Taiwan. This is very easily demonstrated by the Top 5 games that Media Create posts each week for those countries, we will notice that in 2021 only 7 weeks out of 27 actually had PS4/PS5 titles feature in the Top 5 in Taiwan, where PS4/PS5 is fairing a lot better than South Korea where only 3 weeks actually featured a PS4/PS5 game.

Media Create Sales: Week 25, 2021 (Jun 21 - Jun 27)
(Taiwan)

02./00. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 5 <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2021.06.24} / NEW
05./00. [PS4] Scarlet Nexus <RPG> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2021.06.24} / NEW
(South Korea)

05./00. [PS5] Scarlet Nexus <RPG> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2021.06.24}

Media Create Sales: Week 23, 2021 (Jun 07 - Jun 13)
(Taiwan)

02./00. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Remake Intergrade <RPG> (Square Enix) {2021.06.10} / NEW
04./00. [PS5] Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2021.06.11} / NEW
(South Korea)

01./00. [PS5] Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2021.06.11} / NEW

Media Create Sales: Week 19, 2021 (May 10 - May 16)
(Taiwan)

03./01. [PS4] Resident Evil Village <ADV> (Capcom) {2021.05.08}

Media Create Sales: Week 18, 2021 (May 03 - May 09)
(Taiwan)

01./00. [PS4] Resident Evil Village <ADV> (Capcom) {2021.05.08} / NEW
03./00. [PS5] Resident Evil Village <ADV> (Capcom) {2021.05.08} / NEW

Media Create Sales: Week 17, 2021 (Apr 26 - May 02)
(Taiwan)

05./01. [PS4] NieR Replicant ver.1.22474487139… <RPG> (Square Enix) {2021.04.22}

Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2021 (Apr 19 - Apr 25)
(Taiwan)

01./00. [PS4] NieR Replicant ver.1.22474487139… <RPG> (Square Enix) {2021.04.22} / NEW
04./00. [PS4] MLB The Show 21 - English Edition <SPT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2021.04.20} / NEW
(South Korea)

04./00. [PS4] NieR Replicant ver.1.22474487139… <RPG> (Square Enix) {2021.04.22} / NEW

Media Create Sales: Week 11, 2021 (Mar 15 - Mar 21)
(Taiwan)

03./00. [PS5] The Nioh Collection <RPG> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2021.02.12}
04./00. [PS5] Demon's Souls <RPG> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.19}
05./00. [PS5] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.13}
 
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Celine

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Switch has a chance to become the best selling console of all time but it won't be easy at all due to how much PS2 and NDS has sold (around 155M units).

Show me the Wii pace next. Thank you!
Launch aligned (by month) with Switch sales as March 2021.



So I think that even if Switch as of now ahead of PS2 and PS4 in launch aligned sales, I think that in the very long run will end behind them because Sony consoles have a longer tail. As an example, PS4 will turn 8 years old soon and early next year or so will get games like Horizon 2, God of War Ragnarok or Gran Turismo 7 plus many other top selling multi or exclusive crossgen games.
I'd say it's likely Switch will surpass PS4 total sales during 2022.
If Switch meets Nintendo's forecast (25M consoles sold in the current fiscal year) then NSW would sit at around 110M units as March 2022.
PS4 as March 2021 sits at 116.20M consoles sold and it's by all purposes dead (that is hugely down YoY everywhere).
 
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Marty-McFly

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Switch has a chance to become the best selling console of all time but it won't be easy at all due to how much PS2 and NDS has sold (around 155M units).


Launch aligned (by month) with Switch sales as March 2021.




I'd say it's likely Switch will surpass PS4 total sales during 2022.
If Switch meets Nintendo's forecast (25M consoles sold in the current fiscal year) then NSW would sit at around 110M units as March 2022.
PS4 as March 2021 sits at 116.20M consoles sold and it's by all purposes dead (that is hugely down YoY everywhere).
Switch passing PS4 in 2022 will be an event that opens up a lot of eyes around here for those not paying attention to the numbers.

Insane it will catch PS4 so fast.
 

Fafalada

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In fact PS2 sold 30M consoles after 2 years from the beginning of the next gen, an anomaly.
An anomaly since PS2 - but not before it.
The 2nd best selling console of PS2 gen was the PS1, which sold 30M in the same period as DC, XBox and GCN did their respective runs.
 
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yurinka

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Switch has a chance to become the best selling console of all time but it won't be easy at all due to how much PS2 and NDS has sold (around 155M units).


Launch aligned (by month) with Switch sales as March 2021.

It's better to use the graph with the fiscal years with the complete consoles life cycle, because it's more clear there that Wii had a huge performance at the start but later tanked faster than the other ones, and also shows that PS home consoles have a longer life cycle than the Nintendo ones, and that explains why.

I'd say it's likely Switch will surpass PS4 total sales during 2022.
If Switch meets Nintendo's forecast (25M consoles sold in the current fiscal year) then NSW would sit at around 110M units as March 2022.
PS4 as March 2021 sits at 116.20M consoles sold and it's by all purposes dead (that is hugely down YoY everywhere).
They had to make space in productions, shipments and stock for the gaming history record breaking PS5 launch, plus they had the chips issue. Pretty likely PS4 will make a small comeback and continue selling as things got more normal, but in any case doesn't make a lot of sense to expect it to sell zero units the fiscal year Sony will release for it Ghost of Tsushima DLC, Horizon 2, God of War Ragnarok and GT7.
 
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Elysion

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If there really won’t be a Switch successor until 2024, then I wonder what games Nintendo plans to release until then. If BotW 2 comes out next year, then that means there won’t be a new Zelda on the next system until 2027 at the earliest, possibly even later. The same goes for the next 3d Mario or Mario Kart. If the Switch receives new entries for those within its remaining lifespan, then it’s going to take forever until we see Zelda, 3d Mario or Mario Kart on the next Switch. And a Nintendo system without its biggest IPs doesn’t sound particularly viable.

I’m sure Nintendo is aware of this as well, which is why I think one of two things will happen:

Either, Nintendo does indeed wait until 2024 to launch a new system, but holds back new entries for their big IPs until then. But this means the last two years of the Switch would be very dry in terms of software, probably on par with the worst software droughts we saw on Gamecube or WiiU.
Alternatively, the Switch successor comes out sooner than that (probably 2023), and new entries for Nintendo’s biggest IPs will appear early during its lifespan (similar to what happened with Switch), maybe cross-platform with the first Switch.

The second option would give Nintendo a strong start for their Switch successor, while the software drought on Switch won’t be as long. Unfortunately, considering how strong the Switch’s sales are, I could see Nintendo trying to drag it out until 2024, even without any big Nintendo releases between 2022 and 2024 (the only exception probably being a new Pokémon game).
 

Andyliini

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Nintendo already has three potentially huge sellers planned on 2022: Pokemon Legends: Arceus, Splatoon 3 and The sequel to The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild. That to me does not sound like a lineup for a machine planned to be replaced next year. Because of that, I think Switch's successor will be out in 2024 earliest. Until Switch sales really fall of a cliff in the recent future, which I doubt.

And to be fair, the best reason for PS2 to be selling that much in it's later years is because the PS3 was such a clusterfuck when released. Had it been cheaper and ran PS2 games, PS2 would have been replaced much faster.
 
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Marty-McFly

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It's better to use the graph with the fiscal years with the complete consoles life cycle, because it's more clear there that Wii had a huge performance at the start but later tanked faster than the other ones, and also shows that PS home consoles have a longer life cycle than the Nintendo ones, and that explains why.
I don't believe this to be the case. I think rather that platforms that continue to sell well have a longer life cycle.

NES 13 years
SNES 13 years
Gameboy 14 years
GBA 9 years
DS 9 years
3DS 9 years

All the rest of Nintendo's platforms sold well under 50 million and were relative failures, the only outlier to prove your point is the Wii, which is not evidence of much considering it was Nintendo's most novel console, that sold to a new demographic of "non gamer's" (I didn't make the term up) that were not loyal Nintendo enthusiasts and quickly moved on once the control gimmick became stale to them.
 
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Dream-Knife

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It's the same thing; the mass market's rewarded technological competency and innovation before; PC-Engine in Japan, Genesis in the West, SNES globally, PS1, PS2, the Wii etc. and many of those systems were ALSO heavy on pushing graphics and framerate for their time so that doesn't fly as an excuse when it comes to the Switch.

You don't have to be "obsessed" with those things in order to put some value on them, and the mass market has done that in the past. I think hardcore/core gamers are to blame here; the mass market generally follows where the hardcore/core go and those types were very hyped for the Switch when it was revealed, myself included. But I couldn't picture at the time what impact that could have in terms of technological innovation in gaming space and what complacency that could lead to if it were heavily rewarded, sadly we're now in that timeline when it comes to Nintendo.

And potentially, that could be something Sony and Microsoft take inspiration from as well, if they are looking at Switch's market performance and go "HA! Why are we spending hundreds of billions on R&D and cutting-edge tech, when Nintendo's over here with outdated tech and outselling us!?". And knowing how hypocritical some people are, they will crucify Sony and Microsoft (especially Microsoft) for doing that, meanwhile give Nintendo a pass because of nostalgia goggles and, arguably, cult-like mentality.
That's actually why Nintendo is the way they are. The n64 and gamecube were beaten by inferior machines (ps1 and 2), so they gave up the power race.
 

Mozza

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There still is this ages onf narrative of "Switch sales falling of a cliff"? I swear it has existed ever since first started selling high numbers. First it was supposed to happen after the launch window, then after 2017 when "all the games were released", then in 2018 when there were no games, then again in 2020 when the next generation consoles launch and now we have moved to 100 million sold.

I swear, the narrative never stops, the goalpost is just moved to fit it. I quess it earns bragging rights when they are finally right, but that's just common sense.
So true, the narrative of poor Switch sales started on here before the console was launched, then when it sold amazingly well disaster was always just around the corner, then as each sales milestone was reached excuse after excuse was made, goalposts were moved to suggest it was not a true home console, so should not be compared to those sales, of course of the machine had bombed them it would have been compared to the home consoles on every thread.

Then the Switch and it's games have only sold well due to the pandemic, so games like Animal Crossing with it's 30 million sales have not sold very well because it's a great game with mass appeal, it's only down to the global pandemic, funny how amazing games like The last of us 2, did not get the same sort of sales boost from the same situation.

Another factor they seem blissfully unaware of, or totally ignore, is the fact the console has been selling awesome numbers since launch, and has not as yet received an official price cut, the amount of upset by some on here and other gaming forums, based on the simple fact Nintendo have made console that is selling well, that they do not personally like is very sad indeed, and I have both my fingers and toes crossed that the Switch does surpass the Ps2, if only for the inevitable meltdowns on the internet and YouTube.
 

Marty-McFly

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So true, the narrative of poor Switch sales started on here before the console was launched, then when it sold amazingly well disaster was always just around the corner, then as each sales milestone was reached excuse after excuse was made, goalposts were moved to suggest it was not a true home console, so should not be compared to those sales, of course of the machine had bombed them it would have been compared to the home consoles on every thread.

Then the Switch and it's games have only sold well due to the pandemic, so games like Animal Crossing with it's 30 million sales have not sold very well because it's a great game with mass appeal, it's only down to the global pandemic, funny how amazing games like The last of us 2, did not get the same sort of sales boost from the same situation.

Another factor they seem blissfully unaware of, or totally ignore, is the fact the console has been selling awesome numbers since launch, and has not as yet received an official price cut, the amount of upset by some on here and other gaming forums, based on the simple fact Nintendo have made console that is selling well, that they do not personally like is very sad indeed, and I have both my fingers and toes crossed that the Switch does surpass the Ps2, if only for the inevitable meltdowns on the internet and YouTube.
There's going to be meltdowns when it passes PS4 without breaking a sweat in 2022 as well.

Switch truly is the gift that keeps giving.
 

Celine

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It's better to use the graph with the fiscal years with the complete consoles life cycle, because it's more clear there that Wii had a huge performance at the start but later tanked faster than the other ones, and also shows that PS home consoles have a longer life cycle than the Nintendo ones, and that explains why.
A graph with data quarter by quarter have finer detail.
The steepness of the curve and how is trending during the life cycle already point out if a console had exhausted its sales potential earlier than other consoles.

They had to make space in productions, shipments and stock for the gaming history record breaking PS5 launch, plus they had the chips issue. Pretty likely PS4 will make a small comeback and continue selling as things got more normal, but in any case doesn't make a lot of sense to expect it to sell zero units the fiscal year Sony will release for it Ghost of Tsushima DLC, Horizon 2, God of War Ragnarok and GT7.
PS4 sell-through in markets like US, Japan and Spain during 2021 is sharply down compared to 2020.
In the past fiscal year Sony sold-in 5.80M of PS4 consoles, my guess is that PS4 annual shipment for the current fiscal year will be less than half that amount.
On the other hand you have a console like the Switch which is doing 20M+ consoles sold per fiscal year.
It's already evident that NSW have a high probability to surpass PS4 total sales.

But PS4 isn't really what's Switch is eyeing, what it is aiming for are the PS2 and NDS though, as I've already said, it won't be easy at all.

EDIT:
For fun, PlayStation home consoles sales after the release of the successor (taking as a reference the first quarter after the quarter the successor was launched for the very first time, therefore for PS1 it was considered the PS2 japanese launch):
PS1: 29.57M *
PS2: 39.64M *
PS3: ~7M **
PS4: ? (currently 1.00M as March 2021)

Sell-in data unless otherwise specified.

* Production shipment (to not be confused with sell-in)
** Sony announced in early November 2013 that PS3 had reach the 80M milestone. For PS3 not all quarterly data is known due to Sony practice to group PS3 sales with PS2 ones in FY'12.
 
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Robb

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I doubt it'll reach Ps2/DS numbers, but then again I didn't even think Switch would reach 3DS numbers initially.. So who knows.

I definitely think it'll overtake Ps4 and Wii though, which is super impressive as is.
 

Dane

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I had some look for that a few months ago, and yes, it is possible, switch hitting 100 million is imminent, and even if you take account of wii hard decline after it's third full year, it would still hover at around 125-130 million mark.
 

RAIDEN1

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If it ain't broke why fix it? This comes to mind with the Switch, yeah it might not have the horsepower of the PS5 and X-S-X but Nintendo have history with this stretching back to 1989 with the release of the Gameboy, despite it lacking colour and remaining black and white despite the technicolour glory and power of the Game Gear and Lynx.. it took down the competition and remained dominant and it took Nintendo aeons to get the dam thing in colour...despite the tech already being there for a while..
 
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Celine

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It's the same thing; the mass market's rewarded technological competency and innovation before; PC-Engine in Japan
Number of Famicom sold-in in Japan since September 1987: 8.63 million units
Number of PC Engine sold-in in Japan since launch which happened in October 1987: 4.79 million units (including the PCE Duo models)

In each fiscal year Famicom outshipped the PC Engine in Japan until the fiscal year ending March 1994, in the following FY PCE outsold the FC for the first and only time.
 
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FStubbs

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If there really won’t be a Switch successor until 2024, then I wonder what games Nintendo plans to release until then. If BotW 2 comes out next year, then that means there won’t be a new Zelda on the next system until 2027 at the earliest, possibly even later. The same goes for the next 3d Mario or Mario Kart. If the Switch receives new entries for those within its remaining lifespan, then it’s going to take forever until we see Zelda, 3d Mario or Mario Kart on the next Switch. And a Nintendo system without its biggest IPs doesn’t sound particularly viable.

I’m sure Nintendo is aware of this as well, which is why I think one of two things will happen:

Either, Nintendo does indeed wait until 2024 to launch a new system, but holds back new entries for their big IPs until then. But this means the last two years of the Switch would be very dry in terms of software, probably on par with the worst software droughts we saw on Gamecube or WiiU.
Alternatively, the Switch successor comes out sooner than that (probably 2023), and new entries for Nintendo’s biggest IPs will appear early during its lifespan (similar to what happened with Switch), maybe cross-platform with the first Switch.

The second option would give Nintendo a strong start for their Switch successor, while the software drought on Switch won’t be as long. Unfortunately, considering how strong the Switch’s sales are, I could see Nintendo trying to drag it out until 2024, even without any big Nintendo releases between 2022 and 2024 (the only exception probably being a new Pokémon game).
Actually - launching with a new mainline Pokemon might be the thing they do. They have enough Pokemon content the next couple of years, could skip 2023, and then launch in 2024 with a new Pokemon game.

They could wait until 2024 for the next Mario Kart as well.

Zelda? They have the Oracle games they could remake in the same style they did Link's Awakening.
 
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That's actually why Nintendo is the way they are. The n64 and gamecube were beaten by inferior machines (ps1 and 2), so they gave up the power race.
But they were never really about the "power race", their systems just had a history of being as strong or stronger than competition due to release timing. The SNES/SFC for example is more powerful than Genesis/MegaDrive in a lot of areas (though weaker in a few notable other areas), but that is mainly due to it coming out two years later, so it benefited from natural technological and pricing advances in the industry.

At the very least, Nintendo's classic design motto focused on timing releases a bit later while having hardware that as a result would benefit somewhat from technological advances and cheaper pricing. The N64 and Gamecube didn't lose because of anything power-related; they lost because Nintendo's strategy of waiting 2+ years after competitors to release a new system no longer worked when one of those competitors was Sony, who could use their financial and resource advantages to shore up a wealth of support in the time frame Nintendo traditionally took to simmer and wait.

I mean, just look at the momentum the PS1 was able to garner between 1994 and 1996, and keep in mind the N64 didn't even launch in some territories like Europe until 1997!! That's scant a year or so before the Dreamcast released in Japan!!! In fact, if you think of it that way the N64 was only in Japan for two years before the Dreamcast launched, which goes to show how late Nintendo launched the system and how outdated their "wait and see" approach became when they were absolutely leapfrogged by a competitor's new platform only a couple years later while lacking any technological advantages whatsoever.

Nintendo's old strategy (and their current one) emphasized maximizing profit margins at launch so as not to lose money, so if your aim was to release a platform generally competitive with opposition while avoiding the early losses they'd see with their systems, you just drag out releasing your platform until costs get to a point where losses at launch are avoidable. That worked against companies like SEGA because they operated with the old-school console industry model of the time, and even against companies like NEC it worked too because even tho NEC were massive at the time they were pretty much hands-off with PC-Engine, letting the smaller Hudson handle that more or less.

Now with the costs on technological components slowing in price reduction over time (and other things like node shrinks getting more expensive versus less, or something similar), Nintendo's goal to still maintain that philosophy of maximizing profits from Day 1 on hardware was to fold their console segment into a segment where expectations for powerful hardware weren't as high, the handheld market, and they probably took PS Vita's disastrous failure as a sign that this segment would be "safe" in regards to getting consumed by the type of technological pursuits the console industry did.

And yet now we're here with Valve shaking things up once again, avoiding a ton of Sony's pitfalls with the PS Vita and getting in a price range very competitive with a company like Nintendo. A lot of people are probably writing off the Steam Deck as having any perceptible impact on Switch and maybe to a large degree they're right to do so, but if Nintendo sees serious momentum build with something like Steam Deck, and knowing Valve generally like to push at least some types of cutting-edge technological innovation in the products they do, there is a chance that throws Nintendo's general product strategy for the hybrid console/portable market out of sync.

They would be forced to compete in terms of technological innovation/technological QoL that could risk them losing money on hardware from Day 1 which is something they absolutely hate picturing. But if their idea for a "new and improved Switch" is something as tepid as a Switch OLED, at the very least they won't need to count on me being suckered into buying a new piece of hardware from them anytime soon.

Valve, you had my curiosity, but now you've got my attention.

Number of Famicom sold-in in Japan since September 1987: 8.63 million units
Number of PC Engine sold-in in Japan since launch which happened in October 1987: 4.79 million units (including the PCE Duo models)

In each fiscal year Famicom outshipped the PC Engine in Japan until the fiscal year ending March 1994, in the following FY PCE outsold the FC for the first and only time.

Rewarding technological innovation doesn't mean the product has to be the "market leader" in volume of systems sold. When I say "rewarding", I mean providing a stream of ecosystem revenue and profit that hits what internal projection targets the companies involved likely have.

You're making the mistaking of conflating market success with only one metric, which is not in any way the only measure of such when you also don't consider things like ecosystem revenue and profit in comparison with the gains those have over R&D, production, distribution, and marketing expenses and, again, internal projections for what the given company would need to be "in the black".

Your statement doesn't contradict anything I mentioned.
 
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Celine

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Rewarding technological innovation doesn't mean the product has to be the "market leader" in volume of systems sold. When I say "rewarding", I mean providing a stream of ecosystem revenue and profit that hits what internal projection targets the companies involved likely have.

You're making the mistaking of conflating market success with only one metric, which is not in any way the only measure of such when you also don't consider things like ecosystem revenue and profit in comparison with the gains those have over R&D, production, distribution, and marketing expenses and, again, internal projections for what the given company would need to be "in the black".

Your statement doesn't contradict anything I mentioned.
I'm sure Sega was thrilled to lose heaps of money with the technological competent Dreamcast.

People buy consoles for all the qualities that represent the console and characterize its perceived value among the consumers.
The more a console perceived value is shared and agreed among the mass market the higher the console total sales will be.
There are a moltitude of factors that concurr to make a console successful.
Technological competency and innovation are only two factors among others.
Not just that but it must be attested how much the chosen "technological competency" and "innovation" actually improve the console desirability.
To cite a recent example:
The interaction between the smaller screen of the WiiU gamepad held by the player and the big TV set afar was certainly innovative however the appeal it had on the mass market (through software that used it) can be attested to have been limited.
Conversely Switch's concept of quickly and intuitively transform itself to adapt to the user lifestyle so to increase the chance to play games was also innovative and its reception among the mass market was overwhelmingly positive.
 
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yurinka

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A graph with data quarter by quarter have finer detail.
The steepness of the curve and how is trending during the life cycle already point out if a console had exhausted its sales potential earlier than other consoles.
The problem of comparing long term launch aligned periods by months or quarters is that holydays aren't aligned, so in the case of comparing Switch and PS4 gets weird because they always have alternated bumps. So it's better to do it by fiscal year or to do it by quarters but grouping and aligning them by fiscal year to make sure the Holidays get aligned.

PS4 sell-through in markets like US, Japan and Spain during 2021 is sharply down compared to 2020. In the past fiscal year Sony sold-in 5.80M of PS4 consoles, my guess is that PS4 annual shipment for the current fiscal year will be less than half that amount.
If you look at the long term quarterly Sony sales and compare it launch aligned to previous Sony consoles, you'll notice that in in H2 2020 PS4 had a way bigger drop than previous PS consoles had when their successor was released. And this drop almost matches what PS5 sold.

I think that due to covid and the chip shortage, Sony wasn't able to produce as many consoles as they wanted to match demand of both consoles, but they managed to keep producing the same amount of total consoles they did until then. So they decided to drastically reduce PS4 production and replace it with PS5 production during the launch window to have the record launch and even if they weren't going to match PS4 and PS5 match, at least would have some nice record breaking PR figures for PS5.

To reduce this PS4 stock and shipments slightly before the PS4 launch would also help them to make room on their -and retailers- warehouses and stock for the record PS5 launch that was coming. They announced that were making new factories to increase console production, but that requires time and is still constrained by the chips issue.

I don't know when, but it's fair to assume once they keep solving the chips issue, once they are able to increase production first they will try to balance their PS5 with the demand and after achieved then they'll do the same with PS4 so its sales would be back to normal.

I think they expect that this will happen somewhere in late 2021/early 2022, and this is one of the reasons (plus covid affecting game development, devs always welcoming extra time for polish etc) of why they pushed back GoW or GT7 to 2022, because it's when they expect to have enough consoles on the stores to take advantage of the sale bump these games will mean.

On the other hand you have a console like the Switch which is doing 20M+ consoles sold per fiscal year.
It's already evident that NSW have a high probability to surpass PS4 total sales.

But PS4 isn't really what's Switch is eyeing, what it is aiming for are the PS2 and NDS though, as I've already said, it won't be easy at all.
All consoles have a sales curve, when during its first and last years (where PS4 and PS5 are) they sell less and where somewhere in the middle the console sell the most, has it sales peak. Switch recently had this console peak, which also luckyly for them happened at the same time than the covid bump when people bought more consoles, games and other digital entertainment and unlike Sony they weren't chip constrained.

In fact, if we look at the previous consoles and handheld, it made us think Switch's peak year was going to be 2019 FY because -excluding the extra few months PS4 had- it was mimicking the PS4 sales curve exactly, So even Nintendo expected Switch to sell the same PS4 sold that year. But covid bump plus other consoles struggling for chips happened and Switch sold better than expected and this 2020 fiscal year became its sales peak, instead of the previous one. The sales curve changed and now instead and moved so a mixture of the PS4 sales curve and the DS sales curve.

If things go back to normal the current fiscal year will be the first where after the peak yearly sales curve start to go down first slowly and then faster.

EDIT:
For fun, PlayStation home consoles sales after the release of the successor (taking as a reference the first quarter after the quarter the successor was launched for the very first time, therefore for PS1 it was considered the PS2 japanese launch):
PS1: 29.57M *
PS2: 39.64M *
PS3: ~7M **
PS4: ? (currently 1.00M as March 2021)

Sell-in data unless otherwise specified.

* Production shipment (to not be confused with sell-in)
** Sony announced in early November 2013 that PS3 had reach the 80M milestone. For PS3 not all quarterly data is known due to Sony practice to group PS3 sales with PS2 ones in FY'12.
Yes, Sony home consoles sell around almost one third of their sales after their successor has been released. Because as I mentioned they stay in the market getting supported for longer than the Nintendo and Xbox consoles.

In the past it was more difficult for Sony to support the old consoles because they had to release games made for them and sales were focused on new games. Today instead sales of old games represent a very big chunk of the total (thanks to discounts and so on) and games can be crossgen without being a big pain in the ass, and there's also many services that produces revenue for them from these late gen users without having to invest a lot of money/new games there: PS+, Netflix, Disney+, HBO, Amazon Prime Video, PS Now etc.

During these last years Sony also try to appeal a more family market and emerging markets with price cuts (PS4 is still so fucking expensive), as could be China this time since Sony mentioned of the markets where they want to expand is Asia.

So even if Sony said they will support PS4 during at least 2 or 3 years after PS5 release (that is, to reach the typical 10 years cycle) it may be when they will stop making games or signing 3rd party key games for PS4 they may continue selling it for some extra year more. Catalog games, subscriptions and the typical few remaining yearly games that always are the last ones to support a console like sports of dance stuff will help during these last period.

So knowing that, if chips issues stop soon, if you get PS4 sales and add almost a third you'll have a good estimation of potential total PS4 that would be sold.
 
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yurinka

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I don't believe this to be the case. I think rather that platforms that continue to sell well have a longer life cycle.

NES 13 years
SNES 13 years
Gameboy 14 years
GBA 9 years
DS 9 years
3DS 9 years

All the rest of Nintendo's platforms sold well under 50 million and were relative failures, the only outlier to prove your point is the Wii, which is not evidence of much considering it was Nintendo's most novel console, that sold to a new demographic of "non gamer's" (I didn't make the term up) that were not loyal Nintendo enthusiasts and quickly moved on once the control gimmick became stale to them.
I didn't include 8 and 16 bit because the market was too different back then and hard to compare to modern days specially outside Japan and USA. The consoles+handheld market grew and changed a lot with the 32 bits generation to become to what mostly is today with the rise of the 3D visuals and Sony, the fall of the arcades, Europe becoming an important market, etc.

I also mentioned before that most (modern) Nintendo and Xbox consoles last for around 6 years and Nintendo portables (+Wii as exception) around 8-9 years, while PS last for longer in the market:
-PS1 12 years
-PS2 13 years
-PS3 11 years
-PS4 ??? (almost 8 years until now and counting, Sony said they will continue supporting it for at least 2 or 3 years more)

On a maybe separate, unrelated topic, Regarding Game Boy, people often counts Game Boy and Game Boy Color as the same console even if Color had more powerful hardware and exclusive games, so I'd consider them different generations/handhelds when counting units sold and length of their life. It would be like counting PS1+PS2, or PS4+PS5 as a single console because they are BC.
 
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Celine

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The problem of comparing long term launch aligned periods by months or quarters is that holydays aren't aligned, so in the case of comparing Switch and PS4 gets weird because they always have alternated bumps. So it's better to do it by fiscal year or to do it by quarters but grouping and aligning them by fiscal year to make sure the Holidays get aligned.
I understand what you are saying however I don't understand why the holyday quarter not being aligned would create much confusion.
I mean if you look at a single data point, yes that could be the case but when you look at the curve on the whole (the progression of the data points) you can infer if a console is selling at a pace faster than another one in a certain period of time.
Take for example the NSW and PS4 curves, one can easily spot that they sold at a roughly similar pace but that in the last year NSW began selling at a much faster pace.
Or compare the Wii curve to the PS4 one, in the latter part the steepness of the two are completely different (in favour of PS4 obviously) therefore PS4 was destined to "effertlessly" surpass Wii total sales.

All consoles have a sales curve, when during its first and last years (where PS4 and PS5 are) they sell less and where somewhere in the middle the console sell the most, has it sales peak. Switch recently had this console peak, which also luckyly for them happened at the same time than the covid bump when people bought more consoles, games and other digital entertainment and unlike Sony they weren't chip constrained.

In fact, if we look at the previous consoles and handheld, it made us think Switch's peak year was going to be 2019 FY because -excluding the extra few months PS4 had- it was mimicking the PS4 sales curve exactly, So even Nintendo expected Switch to sell the same PS4 sold that year. But covid bump plus other consoles struggling for chips happened and Switch sold better than expected and this 2020 fiscal year became its sales peak, instead of the previous one. The sales curve changed and now instead and moved so a mixture of the PS4 sales curve and the DS sales curve.

If things go back to normal the current fiscal year will be the first where after the peak yearly sales curve start to go down first slowly and then faster.
(The quote is a bit out of the original order, I respond first to this argument)

I never said that NSW will have 20M+ sales for every fiscal year until eternity.
I said that currently the NSW selling pace is of a 20M+ console per FY as suggested by Nintendo's forecast of 25M Switch console sold.
My guess is that maybe even the next FY can be 20M+ FY too (BotW2 and Splatoon 3 should launch during that FY).
Covid obviously boosted the NSW sales in the previous FY however I think that even without it NSW was set to sell better than the previous FY (just not as high as 28.83M units).
Obviously any console has a start, a peak and a tail off sales pattern.
It will be interesting to witness what tail off NSW will have because the only chance it has to surpass PS2 and NDS is to have strong sales after the peak year.
Another interesting aspect about the Switch situation is that Nintendo was never forced to use the "price cut" trump card.

If you look at the long term quarterly Sony sales and compare it launch aligned to previous Sony consoles, you'll notice that in in H2 2020 PS4 had a way bigger drop than previous PS consoles had when their successor was released. And this drop almost matches what PS5 sold.

I think that due to covid and the chip shortage, Sony wasn't able to produce as many consoles as they wanted to match demand of both consoles, but they managed to keep producing the same amount of total consoles they did until then. So they decided to drastically reduce PS4 production and replace it with PS5 production during the launch window to have the record launch and even if they weren't going to match PS4 and PS5 match, at least would have some nice record breaking PR figures for PS5.

To reduce this PS4 stock and shipments slightly before the PS4 launch would also help them to make room on their -and retailers- warehouses and stock for the record PS5 launch that was coming. They announced that were making new factories to increase console production, but that requires time and is still constrained by the chips issue.

I don't know when, but it's fair to assume once they keep solving the chips issue, once they are able to increase production first they will try to balance their PS5 with the demand and after achieved then they'll do the same with PS4 so its sales would be back to normal.

I think they expect that this will happen somewhere in late 2021/early 2022, and this is one of the reasons (plus covid affecting game development, devs always welcoming extra time for polish etc) of why they pushed back GoW or GT7 to 2022, because it's when they expect to have enough consoles on the stores to take advantage of the sale bump these games will mean.

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Yes, Sony home consoles sell around almost one third of their sales after their successor has been released. Because as I mentioned they stay in the market getting supported for longer than the Nintendo and Xbox consoles.

In the past it was more difficult for Sony to support the old consoles because they had to release games made for them and sales were focused on new games. Today instead sales of old games represent a very big chunk of the total (thanks to discounts and so on) and games can be crossgen without being a big pain in the ass, and there's also many services that produces revenue for them from these late gen users without having to invest a lot of money/new games there: PS+, Netflix, Disney+, HBO, Amazon Prime Video, PS Now etc.

During these last years Sony also try to appeal a more family market and emerging markets with price cuts (PS4 is still so fucking expensive), as could be China this time since Sony mentioned of the markets where they want to expand is Asia.

So even if Sony said they will support PS4 during at least 2 or 3 years after PS5 release (that is, to reach the typical 10 years cycle) it may be when they will stop making games or signing 3rd party key games for PS4 they may continue selling it for some extra year more. Catalog games, subscriptions and the typical few remaining yearly games that always are the last ones to support a console like sports of dance stuff will help during these last period.

So knowing that, if chips issues stop soon, if you get PS4 sales and add almost a third you'll have a good estimation of potential total PS4 that would be sold.
(I grouped together the two paragraphs that essentially talked about PS4)

No, only some Sony home consoles sold around one third of their sales after their successor has been released and that happen for consoles launched more than 15 years ago, the context now has changed.
Where I think we disagree is in what SIE priorities are and what strategy they will follow with PS5.
I think SIE is interested in seeking the highest profitability and under that objective they will keep engaged their current active PS4 userbase and share part/most of the software releases between PS4 and PS5, at the same time they will use all their resources to allow the transition of the userbase from PS4 to PS5 as fast as possible.
SIE is aware that the massive profitability they achieved for the first time during the PS4 era is tied to a huge userbase that buy games, microtransactions (a lot of them) and services from their digital ecocystem and also that they are still tied to the concept of a PlayStation box which is why I think they will try to keep alive the software/service part of PS4 (what bring in a lot of money) for users not yet ready to get a PS5 while simultaneously pushing hard to quickly form a strong userbase around PS5 ready to spend money on games, microtransactions (a lot of them) and services on the latest PlayStation box.
Pushing new PS4 hardware sales for people that after 7 years have yet to enter the PS4 ecosystem isn't their priority (because it's not what bring in a lot of profits).

In the coming quarters we will see how the situation will evolve for PS4.
 
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Celine

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On a maybe separate, unrelated topic, Regarding Game Boy, people often counts Game Boy and Game Boy Color as the same console even if Color had more powerful hardware and exclusive games, so I'd consider them different generations/handhelds when counting units sold and length of their life. It would be like counting PS1+PS2, or PS4+PS5 as a single console because they are BC.
It's not "people", it's Nintendo that group the GBC as a revision of the GB.
The reason is that Nintendo was developing a next-gen successor of the GB codenamed Project Atlantis but run into difficulties.
At the same time they were virtually uncontested in the handheld console space due to the lack of meaningful competition and had a killer app that revitalized the aging platform (first in Japan then years later in America and Europe).
The GBC lasted only 2 years and half before being replaced by the actual next-gen successor because it was nothing more than a stopgap revision meant to ride the Pokemon success.

Ironically if the GBC was a reaction to the lack of competition, NDS releasing just 3 years and half after the GBA launch was caused by a sudden and dangerous surge of competition (and no I'm not talking about the N-Gage).
 
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