I'd love to be surprised, but I seriously doubt the price aggression of a company that's still selling New 3DS XLs for $199. If they couldn't cut costs years into the life of the Wii U to justify selling under $299, I'm gonna hazard a guess that they probably won't come in much lighter with a more powerful system with a much better controller screen.
I think there's a few things going on there:
- 3ds is still pretty in-demand, especially with a best selling Pokemon game, so they're selling them for as much as they can get away with doing so. Don't know what numbers Nintendo put out for Xmas, but judging by availability 3DS has sold well this holiday by the looks of it.
- Wii U never sold enough for economy of scales to drive down the cost of manufacturing that would lead to the flexibility to pass those savings to the consumer. And by 2015( even 2014), with most heavy hitters out( Mario Kart 8, Smash Bros, Bayonetta, etc) not moving the sales needle, I think it was clear by then that the system's fate was irreversible.
I wouldn't judge the price of the Switch based on either scenario. I'm sure Nintendo knows that 1) they're entering a current market with entrenched Sony and MS consoles in the 75 million range and easily available for $250-300, and 2) this is supposed to appeal to handheld gamers as well who are more accustomed to sub $200 pricing( you'll recall how quickly the 3ds price dropped back in 2011), so I wouldn't expect a $299 pricetag. $249 is a sweet spot if they can successively pitch that the Switch is a '2 birds with one stone' type of deal.