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August 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 9th

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
[PS4] 188k (-2k)
[XB1] 150k (-10k)
[3DS] 100k (+9k)
[WIU] 70k (+11k)
[360] 55k (+6k)
[PS3] 33k (+6k)

probably will edit this

units off: ~44k
points (top 10 unit bonus not included if I got it): 102.64

P.S. 360 still counting for points is such a drag at this point
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
P.S. 360 still counting for points is such a drag at this point

Was expecting price cuts to keep it higher, but, yeah, it's not good to have such a low-selling system in points. For next year, may just limit it to PS4/XB1/3DS. Don't want to have just three systems, but those are the only things selling consistently 100K or higher!

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Aug-2014

1. PS4 - 187K
2. XB1 - 140K
3. 3DS - 100K
4. WIU - 70K
5. 360 - 50K
6. PS3 - 31K
 

Nick_crx

Banned
May 22, 2014
93
0
0
xbox sales increasing? microsofts bundles must be working a treat.

can only expect this to continue in the lead up the the MCC.
 

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
Was expecting price cuts to keep it higher, but, yeah, it's not good to have such a low-selling system in points. For next year, may just limit it to PS4/XB1/3DS. Don't want to have just three systems, but those are the only things selling consistently 100K or higher!

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Aug-2014

1. PS4 - 187K
2. XB1 - 140K
3. 3DS - 100K
4. WIU - 70K
5. 360 - 50K
6. PS3 - 31K

I dunno is it possible to weigh PS4/XB1 predictions more? cause I think even 3DS is gonna drop next year, and having just 2 systems is.....yeah

also are we rounding to the nearest thousand for official prediction numbers, or not
 

AniHawk

Member
Jun 7, 2004
74,679
7
1,595
seems i was off about 38k for the month. the ps4 and xb1 were higher than i expected. the 360 just a tad lower, the 3ds just a tad higher, and the wii u and ps3 dead-on.
 

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
seems i was off about 38k for the month. the ps4 and xb1 were higher than i expected. the 360 just a tad lower, the 3ds just a tad higher, and the wii u and ps3 dead-on.

oh wow, we're exactly tied in units if we use 59.5k Wii U, 49k 360, and 27k PS3

*grabs popcorn*

and I beat you in points huehuehue
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
I dunno is it possible to weigh PS4/XB1 predictions more? cause I think even 3DS is gonna drop next year, and having just 2 systems is.....yeah

also are we rounding to the nearest thousand for official prediction numbers, or not

3DS will get a good boost from n3DS, I think. Nintendo's always done good getting people to rebuy their handheld systems. Probably adds into why the tie ratio is usually lower than consoles. :p

Will probably use the ##.#K numbers from the NPD thread, at this point. They're so low, that the extra few hundred could make a difference. For something like Nov/Dec, probably wouldn't go that far, unless we were sure of the decimal part, though.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
780
3DS will get a good boost from n3DS, I think. Nintendo's always done good getting people to rebuy their handheld systems. Probably adds into why the tie ratio is usually lower than consoles. :p

Will probably use the ##.#K numbers from the NPD thread, at this point. They're so low, that the extra few hundred could make a difference. For something like Nov/Dec, probably wouldn't go that far, unless we were sure of the decimal part, though.

ehhhhhh

check your pms
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
donny2112 use 59K for Wii U, not 60K

Gracias!

and yeah, please post the prediction results

Using PS4 + my angle measurement results (with a modified Wii U and XB1 value) + 3DS ...

NeoGAF Prediction Results - August 2014

Units

1. Dynopia - 27,400
2. Welfare - 31,200
3. FullMetaltech - 31,400
4. RexNovis - 32,400
5. sacrificengineer - 32,600
6. Gbpackers31 - 33,200
7. travisbickle - 34,400
8. Chobel - 36,200
9. Bgamer90 - 36,400
10. Aquamarine - 38,200
11. KillerMan91 - 39,200
12. Pachter - 39,400
13. Loris146 - 40,200
14. ZSaberLink - 41,200
15. Apexhell - 41,600
16. sjagolinzer - 42,400
17. FliXFantatier - 43,200
17. Tubie - 43,200
17. jvm - 43,200
17. theprodigy - 43,200
21. AniHawk - 43,800
22. Ty4on - 45,200
22. vinnygambini - 45,200
24. donny2112 - 46,200
25. Lexxus - 46,800
26. Duxxy3 - 47,400
26. Paskil - 47,400
26. allan-bh - 47,400
29. GAF_Agg - 47,900
30. Kill3r7 - 48,200
30. pitseleh - 48,200
32. NateDrake - 49,400
33. CorporateClown - 50,200
33. Rand6 - 50,200
33. RyanPierre - 50,200
36. doicare - 51,200
37. RamzaIsCool - 52,400
37. metalslimer - 52,400
39. 1st Course - 53,200
39. Canis lupus - 53,200
39. michaelius - 53,200
39. shinra-bansho - 53,200
43. Kayant - 53,400
43. Yoda - 53,400
45. ascii42 - 54,200
45. noobie - 54,200
47. Xyrmellon - 54,400
48. Jimmyfenix - 55,200
49. Sharpeye - 55,800
50. Orthogonal - 56,200
50. Randolph Freelander - 56,200
50. SwiftDeath - 56,200
53. Road - 56,532
54. The Abominable Snowman - 56,800
55. TrebuchetGames - 57,200
56. Justice_Bolt - 57,400
56. Maxxan - 57,400
58. Bruno MB - 58,200
58. DayEnder - 58,200
58. dolemite - 58,200
58. ethomaz - 58,200
62. madp0k - 58,400
63. TheCarrotKiller - 59,200
63. tahsutify - 59,200
65. skedar897 - 59,800
66. BoxManLocke - 60,200
66. ironcreed - 60,200
66. jayu26 - 60,200
69. Asd202 - 60,400
70. JavaMind - 62,400
70. archnemesis - 62,400
72. Elios83 - 63,200
72. HalfBaked - 63,200
72. Pillville - 63,200
72. Sloane_Ranger - 63,200
72. chithanh - 63,200
77. DrWong - 63,800
78. RE_Player - 64,400
79. Eolz - 65,200
79. Makareu - 65,200
81. Gianni Merryman - 65,400
82. Tratorn - 65,508
83. temesgen77 - 66,200
84. Tripon - 66,800
84. prag16 - 66,800
86. Angelus Errare - 67,400
87. robo - 68,200
88. LordofPwn - 70,200
88. ferrasvansen - 70,200
90. Goldmund - 71,200
90. Hammer24 - 71,200
92. Prototype Viktor - 71,400
93. IndoAssassin - 72,400
94. BurnMuhBread - 73,200
94. Derphoof - 73,200
96. akGCO47 - 73,400
97. LKSmash - 74,400
98. TraBuch - 74,800
99. Rymuth - 75,200
100. Graphics Horse - 75,800
100. freefornow - 75,800
102. BlackBuzzard - 76,200
102. MilesTeg - 76,200
104. shwimpy - 76,400
105. astrogamer - 77,200
106. Qwark - 77,400
107. Holographix - 77,800
108. Cornbread78 - 78,200
108. Dedication Through Light - 78,200
110. bakman21 - 78,400
111. Megadragon15 - 79,200
112. GamerJM - 81,800
113. BlackJace - 82,400
113. confuziz - 82,400
113. mejin - 82,400
116. BuzzJive - 82,800
117. MasterSheen - 83,200
117. Radec - 83,200
117. Zero-Crescent - 83,200
120. KingSnake - 84,200
120. SDCowboy - 84,200
122. truth411 - 85,200
123. Mr.Sumal - 87,600
124. WhiskerFrisker - 88,400
125. TheHall - 89,400
126. Jashobeam - 92,400
127. spatenfloot - 92,800
128. andy_lhc - 93,400
129. Jamix012 - 94,200
130. plainr_ - 95,200
131. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 95,400
132. Hison Yohannas - 96,200
133. Cess007 - 96,800
134. Jomjom - 97,600
135. AngryNapkin - 99,800
136. SolidJum5 - 103,200
137. kinoki - 107,200
138. Conduit - 111,600
139. KenPokesBarbie - 112,200
140. DarthWalden - 117,400
141. DaSorcerer7 - 117,800
142. SuperLeviathan - 121,800
143. Da_Bears - 129,200
144. pip77 - 129,400
145. le.phat - 132,200
146. random25 - 168,200
147. perfectchaos007 - 245,200


Points
Code:
     August 2014                     Overall 2014 Top (7/8)
01.  Dynopia                123.12   allan-bh               665.65
02.  Welfare                118.18   Road                   650.41
03.  FullMetaltech          117.25   doicare                640.99
04.  RexNovis               113.86   shinra-bansho          638.97
05.  travisbickle           110.11   Zero-Crescent          636.49
06.  Bgamer90               107.98   vinnygambini           632.39
07.  Gbpackers31            107.65   donny2112              632.02
08.  Rand6                  106.89   Elios83                630.70
09.  KillerMan91            105.23   Canis lupus            629.71
10.  sjagolinzer            105.21   Graphics Horse         629.40
11.  Aquamarine             105.00   BuzzJive               628.28
12.  Loris146               104.98   archnemesis            628.27
13.  Jimmyfenix             104.65   prag16                 627.71
14.  Canis lupus            104.62   Gbpackers31            622.82
15.  Tubie                  104.58   BlackBuzzard           622.71
16.  Chobel                 104.45   jayu26                 622.67
17.  FliXFantatier          104.45   Bruno MB               620.83  * Aquamarine             621.08
18.  Ty4on                  104.35   jvm                    620.62
19.  jvm                    104.32   theprodigy             619.42
20.  noobie                 104.20   Chobel                 617.46
21.  CorporateClown         104.14   confuziz               613.67
22.  vinnygambini           103.93   Randolph Freelander    613.59
23.  Pachter                103.87   Maxxan                 613.59
24.  Lexxus                 103.77   SwiftDeath             613.36
25.  DayEnder               103.60   michaelius             609.15
26.  pitseleh               103.54   Loris146               608.82
27.  Orthogonal             103.42   Bgamer90               607.93
28.  ironcreed              103.14   bakman21               603.10
29.  sacrificengineer       103.05   ascii42                599.35
30.  theprodigy             102.98   1st Course             599.32
31.  NateDrake              102.97   Hammer24               597.93
32.  donny2112              102.67   andy_lhc               595.30
33.  Xyrmellon              102.66   MasterSheen            592.98
34.  BoxManLocke            102.62   pitseleh               592.42
35.  RyanPierre             102.61   astrogamer             592.27
36.  allan-bh               102.55   noobie                 591.43
37.  Apexhell               102.55   Lexxus                 591.32
38.  michaelius             102.45   CorporateClown         590.29
39.  TheCarrotKiller        102.40   skedar897              589.57
40.  Derphoof               102.35   sacrificengineer       588.40
41.  shinra-bansho          102.30   RamzaIsCool            586.07
42.  doicare                102.29   Goldmund               579.23
43.  Paskil                 102.24   Tratorn                578.27
44.  1st Course             102.23   Aquamarine             570.95
45.  Maxxan                 102.16   sjagolinzer            569.55
46.  Tripon                 102.14   travisbickle           567.33
47.  ethomaz                102.04   Jamix012               559.29
48.  Randolph Freelander    102.01   DrWong                 558.83
49.  Road                   101.95   Megadragon15           553.85
50.  ascii42                101.91   mejin                  540.57

Congratulations, Dynopia! :D
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
780
1. Dynopia - 27,400
2. Welfare - 31,200
3. FullMetaltech - 31,400
4. RexNovis - 32,400
5. sacrificengineer - 32,600
6. Gbpackers31 - 33,200
7. travisbickle - 34,400
8. Chobel - 36,200
9. Bgamer90 - 36,400
10. Aquamarine - 38,200

I'm in the Top 10!

I'm completely satisfied with this. :)
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
1. Dynopia - 28,200
2. FullMetaltech - 30,600
3. RexNovis - 31,600
4. Welfare - 32,000
5. Gbpackers31 - 32,400
6. sacrificengineer - 33,400
7. travisbickle - 33,600
8. Chobel - 35,400
9. Bgamer90 - 35,600
10. Aquamarine - 37,400

01. Dynopia - 123.00
02. FullMetaltech - 119.37
03. RexNovis - 115.97
04. Welfare - 114.05
05. travisbickle - 110.22
06. Gbpackers31 - 109.77
07. Bgamer90 - 108.10
08. Rand6 - 106.77
09. sjagolinzer - 105.33
10. Aquamarine - 105.12

I'm in the Top 10!

I'm completely satisfied with this. :)

Had to go back and update the XB1 value to use based on your last post, so that modified things slightly.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
Misses top ten by one spot...


edit. Oh in points I am in top ten

 

Gbpackers31

Member
Jun 5, 2011
148
0
0
If I would have left my XB1 prediction alone, I could have got 2nd place this month (in units at least). Oh well. I'll settle for top 10 :p
 

BuzzJive

Member
Jan 4, 2005
1,762
0
0
45
Well dang - I'm out of the top 10 for the year. I need to quit being overly pessimistic.

Next month should be pretty tough to figure out.
 

prag16

Member
Jul 12, 2012
11,962
3,934
860
Dammit. Horrific month and fell out of the overall top 10 for the year. Need to stop messing around. :mad: