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Sales-Age August 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 5th

Theslammer

Member
Jun 27, 2014
2,403
0
460
Lost Legacy!

Cool of you to drop in the middle of a conversation specifically about packaged games, and specifically games that launched July and prior, and throw down a list of other games that aren't a part of either list. Well done.

Sorry, it's kind of my first day off in weeks and after living at work during Hurricane Irma, so I guess I'm not perfectly reading every thread and didn't catch all the details. I'll try to do better next time to avoid your passive-aggressiveness.
 

Malakai

Member
Jun 23, 2015
1,248
0
305
GTA V never ceases to amaze me. Second for the month after years of sales. Also looking at those platform specific charts Switch seems to have rather sharp drop in software sales after top 3. Zelda fifth in all formats chart and ARMS not even in top 20 while in platform specific charts it's just after Zelda.

I swear, you gotta see negativity when it comes to Nintendo literally a case of math. Switch only have an install base at most 3 million in the U.S. vs x86 twins that have an install base of at least 25 million. Then, the all format chart combine the sales on the Xbox One and PS4 due to the multiplatform nature of releases. Jesus. Heck, it is even amazing that Mario Kart 8, Spatoon 2 and Zelda are even charting....
 

Jaded Alyx

Member
Apr 17, 2007
19,834
4
1,060
Grenada
I swear, you gotta see negativity when it comes to Nintendo literally a case of math. Switch only have an install base at most 3 million in the U.S. vs x86 twins that have an install base of at least 25 million. Then, the all format chart combine the sales on the Xbox One and PS4 due to the multiplatform nature of releases. Jesus. Heck, it is even amazing that Mario Kart 8, Spatoon 2 and Zelda are even charting....
... Without digital numbers too.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
I swear, you gotta see negativity when it comes to Nintendo literally a case of math. Switch only have an install base at most 3 million in the U.S. vs x86 twins that have an install base of at least 25 million. Then, the all format chart combine the sales on the Xbox One and PS4 due to the multiplatform nature of releases. Jesus. Heck, it is even amazing that Mario Kart 8, Spatoon 2 and Zelda are even charting....

Switch installbase in the US is around 2 million now
edit: and the combined Ps4 and Xb1 installbase is already at over 35 million. not only 25
 

Theslammer

Member
Jun 27, 2014
2,403
0
460
I swear, you gotta see negativity when it comes to Nintendo literally a case of math. Switch only have an install base at most 3 million in the U.S. vs x86 twins that have an install base of at least 25 million. Then, the all format chart combine the sales on the Xbox One and PS4 due to the multiplatform nature of releases. Jesus. Heck, it is even amazing that Mario Kart 8, Spatoon 2 and Zelda are even charting....

It's pretty amazing. I imagine with less on the system since it's new, then if you buy a Switch, you're likely buying those games since there aren't yet hundreds to choose from yet. I can't imagine buying a Switch and not automatically looking at Zelda, Mario Kart, and the like, so if you sell several hundred thousand Switch units in a month, I have to think that's also several hundred thousand of those games to go along with it.
 
Aug 15, 2017
859
0
210
In what may have been a serious mistake, I've recorded a video talking about all of August's highlights as well as a look ahead to September.

It's a bit dry, has a lot of charts and is written in the language of corporate America, otherwise known as PowerPoint.

Great idea! I'll give this a watch after I wake up.

If I could ask you one question before I go to bed, I've just been curious for a while now as to how BoTW Wii U has been selling. I *think* Nintendo confirmed it passed 1 million sales worldwide in its opening month though I might be mistaken, but how have sales been since? The Switch version has obviously done fantastic but are the Wii U results post launch anything remarkable?
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
I swear, you gotta see negativity when it comes to Nintendo literally a case of math. Switch only have an install base at most 3 million in the U.S. vs x86 twins that have an install base of at least 25 million. Then, the all format chart combine the sales on the Xbox One and PS4 due to the multiplatform nature of releases. Jesus. Heck, it is even amazing that Mario Kart 8, Spatoon 2 and Zelda are even charting....

Okay? Just pointed out that while top three titles sold really well as they are even in top 5 on all platforms chart the gap to next title seems to be pretty big. Following the links in you tag it doesn't seem that you are the best poster to accuse others of fanboyism.
 
Aug 15, 2017
859
0
210
Well, I can't get into specifics, but it has been the top selling title on the Wii U every month since launch. The platform itself is exiting the market, however, and this can be seen in the software sales.

Yeah I suspected you had to be tight-lipped, I guess a surprisingly positive performance was too much to hope for, though that it's been no1 Wii U game every month is at least something.

I played that version and don't have any regrets, it's a great version of the game, and the people who bought it almost certainly knew they were getting an objectively inferior version for the same price so there was not much that could be done.
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
Yeah I suspected you had to be tight-lipped, I guess a surprisingly positive performance was too much to hope for, though that it's been no1 Wii U game every month is at least something.

I played that version and don't have any regrets, it's a great version of the game, and the people who bought it almost certainly knew they were getting an objectively inferior version for the same price so there was not much that could be done.

I'm convinced that in 10-15 years the Wii U will be looked back on a lot like the Dreamcast is today.

Some absolutely incredible games on it that far few people played, and that will be recognized over the longer term as classics.

You're right on your Zelda take, but still, the Wii U is a great machine.
 

Kill3r7

Member
Jun 19, 2014
8,896
1
320

NSESN

Member
Mar 18, 2015
5,499
1
0
So BotW outsold FFXV without digital. Did we already knew that or that was after this month?
 

Malakai

Member
Jun 23, 2015
1,248
0
305
Switch installbase in the US is around 2 million now
edit: and the combined Ps4 and Xb1 installbase is already at over 35 million. not only 25

I did use the qualifiers "at most" which generally connotes a fixed upper limit and "at least" which generally connotes a fixed lower limit. I couldn't recall the exact sales figures from the U.S. of off the top of my head. If that 35 million figure is true for the U.S. and/or America that mean the PS4 in all likelihood have outsold the 3DS in the U.S. right now...
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,511
0
430
I did use the qualifiers "at most" which generally connotes a fixed upper limit and "at least" which generally connotes a fixed lower limit. I couldn't recall the exact sales figures from the U.S. of off the top of my head. If that 35 million figure is true for the U.S. and/or America that mean the PS4 in all likelihood have outsold the 3DS in the U.S. right now...

PS4 will pass 3DS in September.

Awesome video. Do you think there is any chance that NBA2K ends up being the top title for September? Prior to the U.K. numbers I would have been certain of D2.

Now that would be something. NBA over Destiny 2. I think D2 will top the revenue chart but unit sales might be a toss up.
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
Awesome video. Do you think there is any chance that NBA2K ends up being the top title for September? Prior to the U.K. numbers I would have been certain of D2.

Great question. I think Destiny 2 will take a higher spot, although I do anticipate NBA 2K to grow year on year.

Shooters are more front loaded than sports games, and Destiny 2 launched on the 6th, while NBA 2K18 is coming on the 19th.

Thanks for the video, Mat! I enjoyed watching it. Very informative.

That's very kind, thanks for checking it out! If you have suggestions or want me to look at some other or additional things let me know. Open to all ideas. I'm totally winging this.
 

Malakai

Member
Jun 23, 2015
1,248
0
305
Okay? Just pointed out that while top three titles sold really well as they are even in top 5 on all platforms chart the gap to next title seems to be pretty big. Following the links in you tag it doesn't seem that you are the best poster to accuse others of fanboyism.

I just pointed out that you are negativity and it is in the wrong place. How the heck can you compare a software sales of the platform that only have an install base of 2 million that came out six months vs 2 other platforms that have an install based close to 10x the amount and been out for over 3.5 years. What is the freaking point?

And oh yeah, I'm sorry for having and expressing positivity towards a Nintendo platform. I'm truly sorry and I will continue to were my tag for my transgressions for being positive in shame for all those to mark me.
 

FullMetaltech

Member
Jun 17, 2013
4,693
0
0
New York
Great job on the vid Mat. Thanks for all the work you put in it. Its really easy to understand it when you explained as compared to just seeing the PR info.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
I did use the qualifiers "at most" which generally connotes a fixed upper limit and "at least" which generally connotes a fixed lower limit. I couldn't recall the exact sales figures from the U.S. of off the top of my head. If that 35 million figure is true for the U.S. and/or America that mean the PS4 in all likelihood have outsold the 3DS in the U.S. right now...

That is exactly why i posted them. Wasn't any offense.

Ps4 is at ~19.5 million as of July this year.
I don't have Handheld numbers, but you can tust Welfare on them ;)
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
I just pointed out that you are negativity and it is in the wrong place. How the heck can you compare a software sales of the platform that only have an install base of 2 million that came out six months vs 2 other platforms that have an install based close to 10x the amount and been out for over 3.5 years. What is the freaking point?

And oh yeah, I'm sorry for having and expressing positivity towards a Nintendo platform. I'm truly sorry and I will continue to were my tag for my transgressions for being positive in shame for all those to mark me.

It was just market observation how currently retail software sales for Switch seem to be very top heavy. It wasn't meant to be especially negative or positive observation but I guess you can take it as negative if you want. Well I guess this is enough about this.
 

Theslammer

Member
Jun 27, 2014
2,403
0
460

Kill3r7

Member
Jun 19, 2014
8,896
1
320
Now that would be something. NBA over Destiny 2. I think D2 will top the revenue chart but unit sales might be a toss up.

Agreed. IIRC, NBA2K last year finally surpassed Madden. So unit sales might be close if Destiny is down but D2 should dominate revenue charts.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 5 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - August 2017

Units

1. gtj1092
2. bryanee
3. CorporateClown
4. Elandyll
5. Darth Smurf X


Points
Code:
     August 2017                     Overall 2017 Top (7/8)
01.  gtj1092                ---.--   Primethius             ---.--
02.  bryanee                ---.--   noobie                 ---.--
03.  CorporateClown         ---.--   ethomaz                ---.--
04.  Elandyll               ---.--   BlackBuzzard           ---.--
05.  mejin                  ---.--   CorporateClown         ---.--
06.                         ---.--   mejin                  ---.--
07.                         ---.--   allan-bh               ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
09.                         ---.--   Sangetsu-II            ---.--
10.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
11.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
12.                         ---.--   Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--
13.                         ---.--   archnemesis            ---.--
14.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
15.                         ---.--   Kayant                 ---.--
16.                         ---.--   theprodigy             ---.--
17.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
18.                         ---.--   jayu26                 ---.--
19.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
20.                         ---.--   freefornow             ---.--
21.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
22.                         ---.--   Shizza                 ---.--
23.                         ---.--   Kill3r7                ---.--
24.                         ---.--   Fdkn                   ---.--
25.                         ---.--   jjonez18               ---.--
26.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
27.                         ---.--   astrogamer             ---.--
28.                         ---.--   robo                   ---.--
29.                         ---.--   noshten                ---.--
30.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
31.                         ---.--   Rymuth                 ---.--
32.                         ---.--   1993dan1               ---.--
33.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
34.                         ---.--   Stanng243              ---.--
35.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
36.                         ---.--   kyser73                ---.--
37.                         ---.--   Chobel                 ---.--
38.                         ---.--   skedar897              ---.--
39.                         ---.--   sirronoh               ---.--
40.                         ---.--   vivekTO                ---.--
41.                         ---.--   Opt1kon_               ---.--
42.                         ---.--   Gaspard                ---.--
43.                         ---.--   Shock32                ---.--
44.                         ---.--   Zedark                 ---.--
45.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
46.                         ---.--   Cow Goes Moo           ---.--
47.                         ---.--   Graphics Horse         ---.--
48.                         ---.--   Jigorath               ---.--
49.                         ---.--   hanspampel             ---.--
50.                         ---.--   WillySJ3               ---.--

Congratulations, gtj1092! :D
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)

NeoGAF "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - August 2017
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.


1. gtj1092 - 0
2. Elandyll - 20,000
2. noobie - 20,000
4. hanspampel - 25,000
4. mejin - 25,000
6. Welfare - 26,000
7. Chobel - 30,000
7. bryanee - 30,000
7. theprodigy - 30,000
10. freefornow - 31,000
11. BlackBuzzard - 32,000
12. astrogamer - 33,000
13. ethomaz - 35,000
13. jroc74 - 35,000
15. Kayant - 40,000
15. Primethius - 40,000
17. allan-bh - 43,000
18. Pachter - 44,800
19. CorporateClown - 45,000
19. Nightwing123 - 45,000
19. Shizza - 45,000
19. ThatRandomCliff - 45,000
19. jjonez18 - 45,000
24. GAF_Agg - 47,400
25. Canklestank - 48,000
26. Calm Mind - 50,000
26. Gaspard - 50,000
26. He1nekenP1ss - 50,000
26. skedar897 - 50,000
30. Anshelm - 55,000
30. Bitch Pudding - 55,000
30. Darth Smurf X - 55,000
30. Kill3r7 - 55,000
30. OfficerRaichu15 - 55,000
30. kyser73 - 55,000
36. Rymuth - 56,000
37. Sangetsu-II - 60,000
38. digoutyoursoul - 61,000
39. pitseleh - 65,000
40. shimon - 68,000
41. 1993dan1 - 70,000
42. Fdkn - 71,000
43. Sterok - 75,000
44. noshten - 80,000
45. Stanng243 - 81,000
46. robo - 84,000
47. KillerMan91 - 85,000
47. sinonobu - 85,000
49. The James - 95,000
50. Hammer24 - 97,000
51. xJavonta - 98,000
52. Graphics Horse - 100,000
52. donny2112 - 100,000
54. jayu26 - 105,000
55. archnemesis - 110,000
56. harrisk954 - 114,000
57. Renna Hazel - 220,000
 

gtj1092

Member
Feb 16, 2008
3,543
0
865
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 5 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - August 2017

Units

1. gtj1092
2. bryanee
3. CorporateClown
4. Elandyll
5. Darth Smurf X


Points
Code:
     August 2017                     Overall 2017 Top (7/8)
01.  gtj1092                ---.--   Primethius             ---.--
02.  bryanee                ---.--   noobie                 ---.--
03.  CorporateClown         ---.--   ethomaz                ---.--
04.  Elandyll               ---.--   BlackBuzzard           ---.--
05.  mejin                  ---.--   CorporateClown         ---.--
06.                         ---.--   mejin                  ---.--
07.                         ---.--   allan-bh               ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
09.                         ---.--   Sangetsu-II            ---.--
10.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
11.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
12.                         ---.--   Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--
13.                         ---.--   archnemesis            ---.--
14.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
15.                         ---.--   Kayant                 ---.--
16.                         ---.--   theprodigy             ---.--
17.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
18.                         ---.--   jayu26                 ---.--
19.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
20.                         ---.--   freefornow             ---.--
21.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
22.                         ---.--   Shizza                 ---.--
23.                         ---.--   Kill3r7                ---.--
24.                         ---.--   Fdkn                   ---.--
25.                         ---.--   jjonez18               ---.--
26.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
27.                         ---.--   astrogamer             ---.--
28.                         ---.--   robo                   ---.--
29.                         ---.--   noshten                ---.--
30.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
31.                         ---.--   Rymuth                 ---.--
32.                         ---.--   1993dan1               ---.--
33.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
34.                         ---.--   Stanng243              ---.--
35.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
36.                         ---.--   kyser73                ---.--
37.                         ---.--   Chobel                 ---.--
38.                         ---.--   skedar897              ---.--
39.                         ---.--   sirronoh               ---.--
40.                         ---.--   vivekTO                ---.--
41.                         ---.--   Opt1kon_               ---.--
42.                         ---.--   Gaspard                ---.--
43.                         ---.--   Shock32                ---.--
44.                         ---.--   Zedark                 ---.--
45.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
46.                         ---.--   Cow Goes Moo           ---.--
47.                         ---.--   Graphics Horse         ---.--
48.                         ---.--   Jigorath               ---.--
49.                         ---.--   hanspampel             ---.--
50.                         ---.--   WillySJ3               ---.--

Congratulations, gtj1092! :D

Thank you. Think its my first win and to think I did a quick prediction just to beat the deadline.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,511
0
430
Congrats, gtj1092!

Disappointing we got no numbers this month. Next 4 months will be even worse if this continues.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
Congrats, gtj1092!

Disappointing we got no numbers this month. Next 4 months will be even worse if this continues.

I think that the chance of leaks will increase with holiday season. At least really hope so. Would be pretty abysmal not to have any figures for first time ever. I guess Nintendo or MS could give us some numbers if Switch/Xbox One X does really well.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
Congrats, gtj1092!

Disappointing we got no numbers this month. Next 4 months will be even worse if this continues.

i think we can expect Windows Central to get leaks and report some numbers for November + December if Xbox One is doing well
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,511
0
430
i think we can expect Windows Central to get leaks and report some numbers for November + December if Xbox One is doing well

They were already told to stop in December, I doubt NPD let them slip one more time. We either need a forum leak or Microsoft gives out a % increase in November and Nintendo just says what they sold in Q4.
 

Canklestank

Neo Member
Oct 29, 2014
271
0
0
I'll take 25th on my first try! I was way too optimistic for Switch, which I knew was a risk, but I had a gut feeling. I'll ignore or temper that next time lol
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
4,086
417
505
Sofia
If I knew that Mario + Rabbids week would fall outside of August NPD I wouldn't have been so optimistic about Switch performance

Congrats gtj1092
 
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 5 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - August 2017

Units

1. gtj1092
2. bryanee
3. CorporateClown
4. Elandyll
5. Darth Smurf X

Same position two months in a row with the same numbers I used last month. Not too shabby.
 
Aug 19, 2006
25,598
1
0
It also indicates we were to optimistic with regard to Switch's supply for this month. I really hope Nintendo is nevertheless able to build up stock for holiday or they can kiss that one good bye.
Partly my fault, I'm sticking with my 300k,200k,100k prediction until it comes true.

While Japan has improved it's less noticeable in US. If we take US supply as still being 1/3 of world then this quarter won't be up much against last. Depends on rest of world but sounds like they can afford to ship less in a few regions.

With that in mind I find the 18m fy rumor hard to believe, it's not unusual to see next quarter equalling the other three combined, but 18M might require twice the other three combined!