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August 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 5th

D

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD August 2017 retail period (July 30-August 26, 2017) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
Click to expand...
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
Click to expand...

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, September 5th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: July 30-August 26, 2017 (4 weeks, July was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, September 7th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on September 14th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in August:
Seemingly better Switch supply after Splatoon 2 launch
Madden NFL 18 (XB1/PS4) - August 22 (5 days)

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

July's results (not all were public; NSW was ahead of PS4, though)
donny2112 said:
#1 Predictor by Units
Kill3r7 said:
[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 115K
Click to expand...

#1 Predictor by Points
OrangeGrayBlue said:
[NSW] 243K
[PS4] 219K
[XB1] 128K
Click to expand...

Note:
There's a 10 point bonus for getting the order of the systems correct that Kill3r7 missed.
Click to expand...

July 2016 NPD thread
August 2016 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
O

OfficerRaichu15

Member
[NSW] 245k
[PS4] 215k
[XBO] 135k

Software Predictions
Think Splatoon 2 will do around 200k second month.
Uncharted Lost Legacy and Madden will be the top 2
Mario and Rabbids around 250k
 
F

FelipeMGM

Member
this is a hard month

Switch still has the Splatoon 2 effect, but that also depends on Nintendo keeping stock

PS4 had a lot of new software, but I dont think it actually had new bundles

I figure both will be very close, but cant call the one on top yet
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
[NSW] 240K
[PS4] 201K
[XB1] 125K

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of July and August. Both of these months have 4 weeks. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for August to help show how August might be impacted by certain software. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Code: 
2011

Xbox 360 July: 277K / 4 = 69,250
Xbox 360 August: 308K / 4 = 77,000

Weekly average up 11%

PS3 July: 145K / 4 = 36,250
PS3 August: 218K / 4 = 54,500

Weekly average up 50%

[b]Notable Releases in August[/b]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Deus Ex: Human Revolution [1 week]

[u]PS3[/u]
PS3 Slim 160GB model $249 [2 weeks]
PS3 Slim 320GB model $349 [2 weeks]

Deus Ex: Human Revolution [1 week]

Code: 
2012

Xbox 360 July: 203K / 4 = 50,750
Xbox 360 August: 193K / 4 = 48,250

Weekly average down 5%

PS3 July: 139K / 4 = 34,750
PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 35,750

Weekly average up 3%

[b]Notable Releases in August[/b]

None

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 July: 107K / 4 = 26,750
Xbox 360 August: 96K / 4 = 24,000

Weekly average down 10%

PS3 July: 79K / 4 = 19,750
PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 17,750

Weekly average down 10%

[b]Notable Releases in August[/b]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Madden NFL 25 [1 week]
Saints Row IV [2 weeks]
Disney Infinity [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist [2 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
PS3 Super Slim 12GB  $199 [3 weeks]

Madden NFL 25 [1 week]
Saints Row IV [2 weeks]
Disney Infinity [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist [2 weeks]

Code: 
2014

Xbox 360 July: 54K / 4 = 13,500
Xbox 360 August: 50K / 4 = 12,500

Weekly average down 7%

Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Xbox One August: 159K / 4 = 39,750

Weekly average up 21%

PS3 July: 32K / 4 = 8,000
PS3 August: 27K / 4 = 6,750

Weekly average down 16%

PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750
PS4 August: 190K / 4 = 47,500

Weekly average up 2%

[b]Notable Releases in August[/b]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Madden NFL 15 [1 week] [>242k]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Madden 15 bundle $399 [1 week] [41k]

Madden 15 [1 week] [>297k]
Diablo 3 [2 weeks] [<112k]

[u]PS3[/u]
Madden NFL 15 [1 week] [>176k]

[u]PS4[/u]
Madden 15 [1 week] [>385k]
Diablo 3 [2 weeks] [<156k]

Code: 
2015

Xbox One July: 188K / 4 = 47,000
Xbox One August: 200K / 4 = 50,000

Weekly average up 6%

PS4 July: 217K / 4 = 54,250
PS4 August: 208k / 4 = 52,000

Weekly average down 4%

[b]Notable Releases in August[/b]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
40-Inch 1080p TV Bundle $499 at Best Buy [1 week]

Madden 16 1TB  bundle $399 [2 weeks]
Gears of War Ultimate Edition 500GB Bundle $349 [1 week]

Madden 16 [1 week]
Gears of War Ultimate Edition [1 week]
Rare Replay [4 weeks] [<109k]

[u]PS4[/u]
Madden 16 with every PS4 for free at Gamestop and Amazon [1 week]
Madden 16 [1 week]

Code: 
2016 

Xbox One July: 171,123 / 4 = 42,781
Xbox One August: 274,783 / 4 = 68,696

Weekly average up 61%

PS4 July: 161,199 / 4 = 40,300
PS4 August: 159,973  / 4 = 39,993

Weekly average down 1%

[b]Notable Releases in August[/b]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Xbox One S 2TB $399 [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Halo 5 + Halo MCC 500GB bundle $299 [1 week]
Xbox One S Madden 17 + 1 month EA Access 1TB bundle $349 [1 week] [16k]
Total was <160K

Madden 17 [1 week]

[u]PS4[/u]
Madden 17 [1 week]
No Man's Sky [3 weeks] [508k]

Code: 
2017 July Weekly Averages

Switch: 222K / 4 weeks = 55,500
PS4: 217K / 4 weeks = 54,250
Xbox One: >119K <127K / 4 weeks = >29,750 <31,750

[b]Notable Releases in August[/b]

[u]Switch[/u]
Supply constrained

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Madden 18 500GB bundle $279 [1 week]

Madden 18 [1 week]

[u]PS4[/u]
Target only 500GB bundle $269 [2 weeks]

Madden 18 [1 week]
Uncharted: Lost Legacy [1 week]


Some notes:

The weekly average going into August is slightly down from July. Straight to the point, every console drops going into August except for Xbox One.

Xbox
The Xbox 360 average weekly drop is -3%, with the biggest drop being -10% (2013) and a rise of +11% (2011). August 2011 didn't have anything and Madden was in the September NPD. It is possible sales were building up for Madden as an influx of new casual buyers were coming in.

So while Xbox One doesn't have the best drops going from June to July thanks to June deals, August always improves over July thanks to bundles. 2014 had a large jump thanks to it having the first Madden bundle of the gen, 2015 had a smaller drop even with a good Best Buy TV deal in the middle of the month and the release of both the Madden 15 and Gears UE bundles. 2016 had the release of the Xbox One S, so obviously that performance is something that won't be replicated again.

PlayStation

So PS3 like Xbox One had a new model release in August 2011, the super slim. It had a similar effect on PS3 sales as the One S did, with a +50% increase from July. This will be removed from the below average.

The PS3 average weekly drop is -8%, with the biggest drop being -16% (2011) and a rise of +2% (2012). Like the 360 in 2011, not sure what happened here. Madden was again in the September NPD so maybe sales were building up, but the 360 saw a drop that year.

PS4 is pretty straight forward. Had a +2% increase in 2014 thanks to the first new Madden release after launch, -4% in 2015 from a good July thanks to GameStop and Amazon giving Madden 16 for free with every new PS4 purchase, and -1% in 2016 thanks to Madden 17 and No Man's Sky which sold 508K that month.

Nintendo

mad.gif


Switch is STILL supply constrained, but hey maybe now that Splatoon 2 is out and Nintendo said they would be produce more units in time for August, stock will be better? Even looking to Japan isn't helpful as August had tons of Splatoon 2 bundles and has the Monster Hunter XX bundle at the end of the month. Maybe since Mario + Rabbids is an August launch (but in the September NPD) Nintendo does get stock in time for that game.

Recap
August is on average a slower month than July, even with Madden. Something like a new model launch will increase the month over July (but what month wouldn't see that) and the Xbox One's safety Madden bundles. Wonder how long that will keep up.

The biggest August ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 453,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 403,600 back in 2007.

The biggest August ever recorded during the 8th gen was the Xbox One with 274,783 in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 with 208,000 back in 2015
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
August 2016:
[NSW] -
[PS4] 160k
[XB1] 275k

July 2017:
[NSW] 222k
[PS4] 217k
[XB1] ~123k

XB1 won't match last year for sure. And the YoY drop will be the biggest ever thanks to last year XB1 S launch. it could exceed 50%. A sequential comparison with this July is way more fitting. Augst has a new Madden Bundle but that is tracked for only 2 days.
July on the other hand had Prime Day, whit consoles among the deals. In a slow summer month, one big retailer promotion could make a substantial impact percentage wise, as you just need a few 10k units for a huge difference. That is the reason, i see the lower end of the Xbox One sales at just very slightly above 100k total units.

Ps4 won't do as much as July, because the hype about Crash and the new special edition Ps4 Slim is slowing down and hardcore fans are more likely to wait for the new white Ps4 Pro Destiny Bund. But last year was a very low August for Playstation. Ps4 should be up YoY, like the last 2 months. Just not as much.

Nintendo. Well yeah. Stock. Who knows. Japan had 2 huge weeks post Splatoon launch and 2 very low weeks. Could be the same for the US. So the average over the 4 total weeks we have a modest increase in overall sales.

August 2017 prediction:
[NSW] 245k +/- 20k
[PS4] 200k +/- 15k
[XB1] 120k +/- 15k

Darth Smurf X said:
My numbers worked great last month, so I'm sticking with them.
Click to expand...
made me laught
hope you will do the same in November ;)
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
The biggest questions for me are 1) if there was enough Switch stock to allow it to "win". And 2) if Xbox will break 100k.
I think the answer to #1 is yes. Not for sure about #2
 
H

He1nekenP1ss

Member
[NSW] 230k
[PS4] 220k
[XB1] 100k

August is an incredible month for PS4 releases, but I think it won't be enough to beat the Switch, if Nintendo have the capacity to push enough consoles at retailers.
 
F

frankie_baby

Member
hanspampel said:
August 2016:
[NSW] -
[PS4] 160k
[XB1] 275k

July 2017:
[NSW] 222k
[PS4] 217k
[XB1] ~123k

XB1 won't match last year for sure. And the YoY drop will be the biggest ever thanks to last year XB1 S launch. it could exceed 50%. A sequential comparison with this July is way more fitting. Augst has a new Madden Bundle but that is tracked for only 2 days.
July on the other hand had Prime Day, whit consoles among the deals. In a slow summer month, one big retailer promotion could make a substantial impact percentage wise, as you just need a few 10k units for a huge difference. That is the reason, i see the lower end of the Xbox One sales at just very slightly above 100k total units.

Ps4 won't do as much as July, because the hype about Crash and the new special edition Ps4 Slim is slowing down and hardcore fans are more likely to wait for the new white Ps4 Pro Destiny Bund. But last year was a very low August for Playstation. Ps4 should be up YoY, like the last 2 months. Just not as much.

Nintendo. Well yeah. Stock. Who knows. Japan had 2 huge weeks post Splatoon launch and 2 very low weeks. Could be the same for the US. So the average over the 4 total weeks we have a modest increase in overall sales.

August 2017 prediction:
[NSW] 245k +/- 20k
[PS4] 200k +/- 15k
[XB1] 120k +/- 15k


made me laught
hope you will do the same in November ;)
Click to expand...
No nintendo only had one low week in japan not two
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
No "free game with every Xbox console purchase this week" from MS? It happened with Destiny and many other games which were bundled with PS4.
 
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