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Avalanche (Just Cause/Mad Max) hiring to make a crossgen (think PS4/PS5) game, has MP

Apr 25, 2015
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I think 2020 is when next gen starts and I also think MS doesn't want to do 2019 because the X will have had 2 years on the market.
 
Apr 30, 2009
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Companies normally do same-year (or within a year) reveals these days, so if (for example) the PS5 is out in Fall 2019, it would be unlikely to be shown until Early 2019.

Mind, developers will talk progressively more openly about the next consoles as they get near.

But what about FF7R being announced 7 years before its now targeted release date.

lol, BG&E2 was announced like 13 years before it will be released.
 

funkystudent

Member
Apr 3, 2010
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Wasn't the practice of a lot of studios last gen to start with a small team mid gen tossing ideas around for the next gen and slowly shift people over year by year as time went by?
 

nelo_inc

Member
May 19, 2014
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C'mon isn't this a bit early for next gen development?
I feel that i didn't even had time to scratch the bottom of this one!
 
Aug 19, 2006
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I think 2020 is when next gen starts and I also think MS doesn't want to do 2019 because the X will have had 2 years on the market.

I don't think it has much if any influence on their next gen plans, what's it going to sell, 3m a year? maybe more, but unless it has unprecedented success why hold on to it for years when the competition rolls on past to next gen?
 
Apr 25, 2015
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I don't think it has much if any influence on their next gen plans, what's it going to sell, 3m a year? maybe more, but unless it has unprecedented success why hold on to it for years when the competition rolls on past to next gen?
I don't think it's going to sell a lot either, it's just that it would sting the people who bought the X I feel for getting 2 years out of it. I also think for MS 2020 would be an off year for Halo and Gears but if Sony is going 2019 I do think MS is forced to follow suite. MS won't give Sony a year advantage for a Next gen console, it does them no good allowing that.
 

kyser73

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Sep 29, 2013
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But we didn't have these midgen refreshes last gen, they aren't comparable.

The mid-gen refreshes are irrelevant to the vast majority of the user base, particularly on PS4. All the Pro brings to the table is fancier graphics for PS4 games.

The Pro doesn't change Sony's roadmap to PS5 IMO.
 

GermanZepp

Member
Feb 15, 2017
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We're just on the normal schedule really.

1994: PS1
- 6 years -
2000: PS2
- 6 years-
2006: PS3
- 7 years -
2013: PS4
- 6 or 7 years -
2019 - 2020: PS5

Maybe you can add right beside the console the number of games we get out of each generation. You know to put things on perspective.


PS1 = 2507 games

PS2 = 2502 games

PS3 = 1436 games

PS4 = 1609 games

*wikipedia data
 

Tagyhag

Member
Aug 21, 2013
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PS3: 2006
PS4: 2013

that's 7 years

Lol that's my bad. For some reason I keep thinking 2014. I think it's because the launch was so uneventful.

I'm day 1 I think. You're not going to know if there will be a mid gen upgrade so you could be waiting for nothing. I'll grab the upgrade for half price again (minus the sale price of the base model) when it releases.

I'll have rethink the plan if Microsoft get their shit together and make an Xbox a worthwhile purchase again. Wouldn't get both twice in 3 or 4 years.

Very true, but I don't mind waiting. PS5 would only be for exclusives.

Worst comes to worst and there's no refresh, I'd be picking up a cheaper system with cheaper used games.
 

Memento

Member
Jun 11, 2015
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If it is 2020, do you guys think Sony is going for the Holidays or Switch-like launch on Q1?

I feel like Holiday 2020 is too far. But at the same time the combo PlayStation Meeting 2020 in February to reveal PS5 and E3 2020 to make the info blowout makes a lot of sense too. It worked really well for PS4...
 

dr_rus

Member
May 3, 2007
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Jumping from 1.84TF to 12TF is pretty big, even if we take in 8TF being required for 4K on current graphics.

The bigger jump will be the CPU though.

It's not that big considering that it's also a jump from 1080p to 4K which essentially quadruples the throughput requirements for the same graphics quality. So at an absolute minimum (and disregarding the decoupled shading tricks for now) we should be looking at 7,5TF only to get the same graphics as on PS4 in 4K. Going from there to 12TF won't do much good as this is even less than twice the minimum power. Couple this with the fact that we'll need 7nm to be able to get even 12TF in an APU size / power and it would not be surprising if the next gen of consoles will launch somewhere around 2020 or 2021.

Another thing to consider is the timing of XBX: it's been 4 years since XBO launch and if MS truly consider XBX as a full next step then it will probably be another 4 years till the next Xbox which puts us in 2021. From a business point of view, unless XBX will be a huge runaway success (I don't see this happening tbh), there are no reasons for Sony to launch anything new before MS will. Which again means that we're looking at 2021 or even 2022 for PS5.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
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A lot.of people saying they don't feel ready for next gen well of course you don't, right now in 2017.

But Fall 2019 is 2 full years away. 2020 3 years away. I'm willing to bet most consumers even on GAF will feel ready to move on by then.
 

JaseC

gave away the keys to the kingdom.
Jul 30, 2009
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I'm of the opinion consoles have transitioned to a sort of mobile phone-esque model of iterative upgrades and a game of leapfrog. PS4/X1 (2013) -> PS4 Pro (2016) -> X1X (2017) -> Next PlayStation (no later than 2019) -> Next Xbox (no later than 2021) -> etc. This will continue for as long as enough consumers are willing to participate.
 

Voidwolf

Member
Apr 16, 2014
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I think the first two years were filled with ports and crossgen titles which makes it feel shorter, that and time absolutely flies these days.

Yeah and the mid gen upgrades (Pro and X) also kinda throw things out of perspective. When I think about it this gen is already approaching the length of all the others and an earlier post confirms that. Plus I've already noticed PS4 games not looking so hot these days. I'm glad I held off on getting a Pro and have no interest in the X, I just built a new PC and that will last well into the next gen cycle of consoles and when those do come out, I'll pick up one of each for the exclusives.
 

bitbydeath

Member
Nov 25, 2015
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It's not that big considering that it's also a jump from 1080p to 4K which essentially quadruples the throughput requirements for the same graphics quality. So at an absolute minimum (and disregarding the decoupled shading tricks for now) we should be looking at 7,5TF only to get the same graphics as on PS4 in 4K. Going from there to 12TF won't do much good as this is even less than twice the minimum power. Couple this with the fact that we'll need 7nm to be able to get even 12TF in an APU size / power and it would not be surprising if the next gen of consoles will launch somewhere around 2020 or 2021.

Another thing to consider is the timing of XBX: it's been 4 years since XBO launch and if MS truly consider XBX as a full next step then it will probably be another 4 years till the next Xbox which puts us in 2021. From a business point of view, unless XBX will be a huge runaway success (I don't see this happening tbh), there are no reasons for Sony to launch anything new before MS will. Which again means that we're looking at 2021 or even 2022 for PS5.

I'm thinking PS5 will release at earliest in 2019 and at latest in 2020 for a number of reasons-

1. History - PS1 and PS2 had 6 years before their succesor arrived, PS3 had 7 years.

2. Game lineup - Announced games are slated to release in either 2018/2019, only unknowns (I think) are TLOU2, FF7R and Death Stranding. This years TGS and E3 also only had games arriving in 2017 and 2018. (Don't recall any likely heading for 2019)

3. Navi is 7nm and releases in 2019, Vega is too large for consoles and Polaris is what's in the Pro.
 

dr_rus

Member
May 3, 2007
10,983
0
1,350
Moscow, Russia
I'm thinking PS5 will release at earliest in 2019 and at latest in 2020 for a number of reasons-

1. History - PS1 and PS2 had 6 years before their succesor arrived, PS3 had 7 years.

2. Game lineup - Announced games are slated to release in either 2018/2019, only unknowns (I think) are TLOU2, FF7R and Death Stranding. This years TGS and E3 also only had games arriving in 2017 and 2018. (Don't recall any likely heading for 2019)

3. Navi is 7nm and releases in 2019, Vega is too large for consoles and Polaris is what's in the Pro.

1. Doesn't really mean much, market change all the time.

2. This is mostly a result of them unveiling pretty much everything they could during 15-17. Right now we don't know what Sucker Punch is doing - and that's all, the rest of Sony studios are working on already announced games - which in turn means that they don't work on any next gen stuff which means that it's likely more than 2 years away.

3. Yeah, 7nm is 2019 and this likely mean that it's 2020 for a cheap console APU. It may also mean that they'll need some "7++" improvement to get the power and clocks to where it will be good for a home electronics device which can easily push us into 2022. As I've said, the tech is slowing down.
 
Jun 13, 2005
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The mid-gen refreshes are irrelevant to the vast majority of the user base, particularly on PS4. All the Pro brings to the table is fancier graphics for PS4 games.

The Pro doesn't change Sony's roadmap to PS5 IMO.

It might make it slightly faster because if the plan is to create a fully ps4 compatible ps5, a lot of the research has already been done. Now its just how they want to time it.
 

uncleniccius

Member
Jun 3, 2012
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United Kingdom
Yes. I added a note about Tabata (Final Fantasy XV) mentioning that BD2's next game is for next-generation as well.


I think everyone wants to be ready for that possibility at minimum. I would give it at least a 50% chance.
Really hoping for this. I feel ready, and would be nice to see games designed with higher end cpus in mind.
 

Kralamoonard

Member
Mar 23, 2015
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Might be off here, but I think the reason why people feel it's too soon to think about next-gen or feel that it's gone quick etc. is that there just aren't as many AAA games as there were last gen, that and games are taking waaayyy longer to make so developers that would have otherwise released multiple games in a generation e.g. R* or Naughty Dog, are looking at 1 game per generation (or at least cross generation for the next gen).
 
May 3, 2015
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7 nm will be good to go in 2020 for mass manufacturing on the PS5. It will probably start appearing on desktop CPU’s in spring 2019.
 
Aug 19, 2006
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I don't know why people think mid-gen consoles would make the generation longer.

If anything, they suggest that the console vendors felt the needed to upgrade their hardware much *sooner* than normal.

It would be bizarre to then delay the generation well past their launch.

The same kind of thinking every time a first price cut is rumoured 'uh they can't do that it would piss off the early adopters'. every goddam time.
 

Shredderi

Member
Feb 24, 2013
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Yeah 2020 has sounded plausible for a while now, and I'm ready for it. It will have been long enough for this gen at that point. It feels shorter because we get less games because of longer dev cycles. I'll gladly take the last of these big games in 2018 and wait for the next wave in 2020 on brand new consoles with some awesome visuals.
 

Lilalaunebaer

Member
Jun 7, 2013
3,209
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Vienna - Austria
The most wonderful time is almost here. Next-Gen speculation, Leaks, Hints, fanboy consolewarriors fighting each other over speculation which console will be better.

 
Jun 28, 2013
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The most wonderful time is almost here. Next-Gen speculation, Leaks, Hints, fanboy consolewarriors fighting each other over speculation which console will be better.

It's what brought me to this forum. It won't be as fun this time though, I think, as both consoles should have backwards compatibility. The complete fresh start last gen is what made it so interesting, in part at least.
 

Shredderi

Member
Feb 24, 2013
9,302
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It's what brought me to this forum. It won't be as fun this time though, I think, as both consoles should have backwards compatibility. The complete fresh start last gen is what made it so interesting, in part at least.

Joined the site at the time of ps4 unveil :D
 
Sep 25, 2016
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I feel like devs haven't even started making good use of the pro and obviously the one X since it's not out yet. 2019 would feel weird

Those refresh consoles are for the base games running nearer to 4k for those with the relevant displays. There's little improvements here and there outside of resolution but it's very much the same game.

PS5 will open up so much more opportunities on top of 4k. Late 2019 lines up with a next gen APU based console at $399. 2019 is also the 25th anniversary of the original PlayStation.