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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


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noshten

Member
As a shareholder with a six figure holding at the time, I didn't expect much from it. Anyone that was super optimistic was probably just a fan with nothing at stake. There was zero reason to be optimistic about it after the Wii U and how Nintendo was conducting business in general.

I more than doubled my money, but it was more out of luck than anything due to coronavirus etc. I can say that I won't be investing in this company again - they're too fickle and have no sense of continuity between systems so the transitions are always rough as fuck (e.g. burning the eshop and virtual console programs to the ground every generation...what the hell? Why???).

Nintendo always feels like one bad decision away from a Wii U again and that's not something I like to see as an investor.

As a fan though, their games are great. Stay as a fan, fuck the investment side of things. Never put money into this company. There are so many better ways to make money.

That's a weird take, I remember thinking it will easily sell 10 million in it's first year back in January 2017.
It was simply a much better device than the 3DS or Wii U, better marketing and had a better launch year line-up than the combined 1st-year line-ups of the 3DS and Wii U. Breath of the Wild would sell the system to the West, Splatoon 2 would sell the system to Japan and everything else was gravy.
A lot of people were underplaying the Switch prior to the launch - "soft launch", "whoever wanted Mario Kart 8 already played it", "whoever wants BotW can play it on the Wii U", "Splatoon 2 isn't a sequel", "Wii U 2", "too expensive". But at the end of the day the hybrid form factor coupled with a strong year one 1st Party line-up, supplemented by indies, Minecraft, Skyrim, sports games ended up being more than enough to sell it at $299 and maintain this price well beyond what everyone expected(I would have thought they would need to drop the price by now).
Finally from very early on it was clear that they were selling the hardware at a profit, something other hardware manufacturers aren't able to achieve, they also revealed that there would be an online sub at some point, which basically meant an additional source of revenue.

Not sure why you as an investor didn't expect much, but I guess you aren't tracking the popularity of franchises like Splatoon in Japan and how a new IP could revitalize the interest in dedicated video game devices in Japan. At the end of the day Switch consolidating the Japanese video game market is something I thought would happen very early on in it's life. By consolidating the 3rd largest video game market they would always have a niche, which in turn would be the reason 3rd Parties would be compelled to port things to their device. This happened with indies, Minecraft, and smaller publishers - Japanese 3rd Parties are only now really coming around on the device and this fall actually has a strong line-up of 3rd Party games for the Switch. It's still amazing that Witcher 3 is on the Switch, while some of Japan's biggest franchises' latest installments aren't.
 
S

SLoWMoTIoN

Unconfirmed Member
AOf7EEs.gif
Yeah what a stupid thing to say. Even you didn't get LABO.
 

CitizenX

Banned
The reality has truly sailed over your head, in this case. I find your argument to be rational, but your conclusion falls apart with how you define a "Nintendo fan." What is a Nintendo fan, or rather who?

The reality is that Nintendo fans are everywhere. Just about anyone with a little interest in video games who isn't an enthusiast likes Nintendo games. They may also like Xbox games or Playstation games. They're not all that concerned with FLOPS and the latest TLOU game. They're into Mario Kart and Smash. Switch is selling to a wide demographic of people who casually like video games. Literally, everyone in my extended family has a Switch (from youngest niece to grandma). Why is this?

Same, same, same. They bring nothing new or anything anyone is trying. If they were not known, they would be seen as nothing more than a solid indie dev.
 

CitizenX

Banned
Sales not only maintain but keep going up. That would clearly show that people outside of "Nintendo fan" care and care enough to put money down. So by your own definition, it's successful. You didn't really think that one through did you?



Again, the sales and success of so many titles on the system would directly contradict what you're saying. Not only are people still talking about the games years later, they're actually still buying them at rates that surpass new releases across all systems. Nobody is going to just "trust you" when you're making statements that are in direct conflict with reality.

look at their history is basically the same across the board and the switch is sort of manipulated becasue its being used as just another 3DS. If this was strictly a console, its DOA, except for those who will buy anything with Nintendo on a box.
 

Ogbert

Member
look at their history is basically the same across the board and the switch is sort of manipulated becasue its being used as just another 3DS. If this was strictly a console, its DOA, except for those who will buy anything with Nintendo on a box.

If it was just a console, it would be way more powerful.

If PS5 was a hybrid, it would be far less powerful.

If my aunty had bollocks she would be my uncle.
 
I said 50 million at the time and that was a relatively high guess back then. The success of the Switch is astounding and that's without even a price drop (I actually think the price has increased in Sweden). But, even with all this there are still plenty of members underestimating Nintendo. The recent sales prediction thread had plenty of people voting for total Switch sales of less than 100 M, and that's just not realistic.
 

Nikana

Go Go Neo Rangers!
Same, same, same. They bring nothing new or anything anyone is trying. If they were not known, they would be seen as nothing more than a solid indie dev.

So if only the didn't make quality software that gave them a reputation with some of the most iconic characters in gaming history along with some of the highest rated games critically they would be nothing.

Got it.
 

Ritsumei2020

Report me for console warring
So if only the didn't make quality software that gave them a reputation with some of the most iconic characters in gaming history along with some of the highest rated games critically they would be nothing.

Got it.

It only Nintendo would stop making good games! Why cant they accept that they are DOOMED? They keep making fun games as if nothing is going to happen!
 

CitizenX

Banned
So if only the didn't make quality software that gave them a reputation with some of the most iconic characters in gaming history along with some of the highest rated games critically they would be nothing.

Got it.

How hard is it for them? Same characters and design, basically same level texture, colors, mechanics i mean seriously a few additions to a 30 yr old formula is not impressive.
 

CitizenX

Banned
The market clearly disagrees.

How can they fail? Seriously as i have said in the past they could throw shit in a box call it Zelda and it would sell millions with reviews saying 10-10. That is in no way wrong but what you will never hear is what i am saying, its the same game every time with little effort. music sound, design, sort of like CoD but you will never hear an honest review this discussion proves it. It would be suicide for anyone to criticize as it has always been with Nintendo.
 

CitizenX

Banned
How can they fail? Seriously as i have said in the past they could throw shit in a box call it Zelda and it would sell millions with reviews saying 10-10. That is in no way wrong but what you will never hear is what i am saying, its the same game every time with little effort. music sound, design, sort of like CoD but you will never hear an honest review this discussion proves it. It would be suicide for anyone to criticize as it has always been with Nintendo.
So if only the didn't make quality software that gave them a reputation with some of the most iconic characters in gaming history along with some of the highest rated games critically they would be nothing.

Got it.
How can they fail? Seriously as i have said in the past they could throw shit in a box call it Zelda and it would sell millions with reviews saying 10-10. That is in no way wrong but what you will never hear is what i am saying, its the same game every time with little effort. music sound, design, sort of like CoD but you will never hear an honest review this discussion proves it. It would be suicide for anyone to criticize as it has always been with Nintendo.

Same characters, music, design, story(if any) throw in maybe a new item or mechanic. Thats nothing but a mod.
 

Ritsumei2020

Report me for console warring
How can they fail? Seriously as i have said in the past they could throw shit in a box call it Zelda and it would sell millions with reviews saying 10-10. That is in no way wrong but what you will never hear is what i am saying, its the same game every time with little effort. music sound, design, sort of like CoD but you will never hear an honest review this discussion proves it. It would be suicide for anyone to criticize as it has always been with Nintendo.

Im going to try to give a serious reply, but not sure if you are also serious?

I think Nintendo made some bad games in the past. Also, I dont care about Mario platformers and I dont like that some people only buy Nintendo to play Mario games. There’s more out there than just Mario guys! Having said that,

Nintendo games are no slouch. My son only plays Smash Bros. with his friends. I tried to get him to play something else, but they just like Smash. Then you have games like Mario Kart, or Splatoon. Sure there are racers and shooters on other consoles, but Nintendo ones have character, are colourful, fun to play.

Zelda BOTW is a strange one. Some people hate it because its too different, but some people (like you maybe?) hate it because its Link again, Zelda again, Ganon again. This take in a way is as bad as the opposite one, the people who only play Mario games and the people who only see Mario and think its always the same game - its like both of these people cant look at games objectively. One is blinded by nostalgia, the other is blinded by the hate for nostalgia.

The truth is, theres plenty of new games to play on the Switch, but people dont really talk about them so much. Astral Chain for example?
 
Looking back and reading "dead on arrival" gives me a good laugh. Nintendo is so into its own thing that we doesn't really compete against the other companies. They will sell well independently of what box you like.
 

Roronoa Zoro

Gold Member
The market clearly disagrees.
Hey Nintendo's smart. They know releasing few games in their big franchises each gen and just keeping them at high prices works to keep that perceived value high. They don't have to invest a lot of thought or time into each games actual development and they know parents that grew up with them will buy it for their kids.
 

Kabelly

Member
Nintendo erased a gap between handhelds and consoles with such a simple concept.

I've always only had Nintendo's home consoles so I've missed out on a lot of their handheld offerings.

Now I get everything under one roof and get "2 in 1" versions of all my favourite Nintendo games.

The moment BOTW was announced for Switch launch my Wii U was put in a grave.

also the same home console games from Wii u didn't become ugly downports for switch. they're the exact same with a bit better resolution.

Splatoon 2 worth my switch for me.
 

Mozza

Member
How hard is it for them? Same characters and design, basically same level texture, colors, mechanics i mean seriously a few additions to a 30 yr old formula is not impressive.


Yes so much different to the endless movie like games with the same gameplay each and every generation, with prettier graphics, this is not a bad thing in essence as it's what we really want, we say we want things different, but in the end complain when they change things too much. ;)
 
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jigglet

Banned
That's a weird take, I remember thinking it will easily sell 10 million in it's first year back in January 2017.
It was simply a much better device than the 3DS or Wii U, better marketing and had a better launch year line-up than the combined 1st-year line-ups of the 3DS and Wii U. Breath of the Wild would sell the system to the West, Splatoon 2 would sell the system to Japan and everything else was gravy.
A lot of people were underplaying the Switch prior to the launch - "soft launch", "whoever wanted Mario Kart 8 already played it", "whoever wants BotW can play it on the Wii U", "Splatoon 2 isn't a sequel", "Wii U 2", "too expensive". But at the end of the day the hybrid form factor coupled with a strong year one 1st Party line-up, supplemented by indies, Minecraft, Skyrim, sports games ended up being more than enough to sell it at $299 and maintain this price well beyond what everyone expected(I would have thought they would need to drop the price by now).
Finally from very early on it was clear that they were selling the hardware at a profit, something other hardware manufacturers aren't able to achieve, they also revealed that there would be an online sub at some point, which basically meant an additional source of revenue.

Not sure why you as an investor didn't expect much, but I guess you aren't tracking the popularity of franchises like Splatoon in Japan and how a new IP could revitalize the interest in dedicated video game devices in Japan. At the end of the day Switch consolidating the Japanese video game market is something I thought would happen very early on in it's life. By consolidating the 3rd largest video game market they would always have a niche, which in turn would be the reason 3rd Parties would be compelled to port things to their device. This happened with indies, Minecraft, and smaller publishers - Japanese 3rd Parties are only now really coming around on the device and this fall actually has a strong line-up of 3rd Party games for the Switch. It's still amazing that Witcher 3 is on the Switch, while some of Japan's biggest franchises' latest installments aren't.

At the end of the day it's all about opportunity cost. Over the last 10 years, if you had put your money into almost ANY other investment you would have made infinitely more. Any random property in any major city like NYC, San Fran, Sydney, Hong Kong would have netted you a 3x return. Assuming you used leverage (which any real investor would), then it would be more like 10x return.

Any major equity like Apple, Facebook etc would have returned 5-20x.

You may like them as a fan. Me too, that's why I invested. But I bet if you had six figures of your own cash on the line you'd think very differently. You need to separate being a fan from being an investor; I learned this the hard way. Nintendo is a stable business, there's no doubt about that. You will never lose the family home over them. But that's not what most investors are looking for.
 

noshten

Member
At the end of the day it's all about opportunity cost. Over the last 10 years, if you had put your money into almost ANY other investment you would have made infinitely more. Any random property in any major city like NYC, San Fran, Sydney, Hong Kong would have netted you a 3x return. Assuming you used leverage (which any real investor would), then it would be more like 10x return.

Any major equity like Apple, Facebook etc would have returned 5-20x.

You may like them as a fan. Me too, that's why I invested. But I bet if you had six figures of your own cash on the line you'd think very differently. You need to separate being a fan from being an investor; I learned this the hard way. Nintendo is a stable business, there's no doubt about that. You will never lose the family home over them. But that's not what most investors are looking for.

I totally get you, I bought Nvidia in 2017 haven't looked back, but if you want to have a stable recession-proof stock Nintendo is a good option especially prior to Pokemon Go when their stocks were in the gutter.
 

lefty1117

Gold Member
Just out of curiosity, were you serious with your prediction? Why do you think you were so pessimistic?

I was skeptical because the Wii U failed so hard, and my confidence in their trend of experimental design decisions was not high. I bought that shit believing in them and it didn't work. Same reason I was pissed at Sony after they dropped the PSP so quickly. But I should have realized that the experience of taking your same device which is docked to your TV and, practically speaking, acts as a regular console while docked, and then being able to take that same device on the go - I should have realized that experience would be pretty sweet. As a Nintendo consumer you don't need a portable and a home console anymore. I had been dreaming of the same thing on the windows phones, where I could dock a phone and use it as my office PC, and then take it with me wherever. So conceptually I should have seen what the potential was. Instead, hard fail!!
 

Mozza

Member
How can they fail? Seriously as i have said in the past they could throw shit in a box call it Zelda and it would sell millions with reviews saying 10-10. That is in no way wrong but what you will never hear is what i am saying, its the same game every time with little effort. music sound, design, sort of like CoD but you will never hear an honest review this discussion proves it. It would be suicide for anyone to criticize as it has always been with Nintendo.

Keep digging fella, if Nintendo's games sell well it because people are easily pleased, and if they get great reviews, the reviewers are obviously in Nintendo's pockets, sounds like salt to me. ;)
 

Tschumi

Member
Good bump. Shows what we know :p well.. shows what they knew~ i wasn't around~

I want us to do another poll for this gen but i might get another message saying "wah wah wah" for being the ten millionth person here to have an opinion on the consoles, accusing me iof ifting an opinion from a Twitter post I've never heard of and asking me some weird question about what an adult would think when they read it? I'm an adult and i think.. babytalk?

For the record, for the thread this might never be, i think PS5 will win the first year, then Nintendo will move back ahead. I'm largely basing this opinion off market share going in, not necessarily popularity or quality of the consoles involved.

Actually i think that's what xBox are trying to do with their cross platform utopia.. Nintendo and Sony have the console market largely cornered so xBox need to open up new markets to work in in order to compete~
 

Mozza

Member
Good bump. Shows what we know :p well.. shows what they knew~ i wasn't around~

I want us to do another poll for this gen but i might get another message saying "wah wah wah" for being the ten millionth person here to have an opinion on the consoles, accusing me iof ifting an opinion from a Twitter post I've never heard of and asking me some weird question about what an adult would think when they read it? I'm an adult and i think.. babytalk?

For the record, for the thread this might never be, i think PS5 will win the first year, then Nintendo will move back ahead. I'm largely basing this opinion off market share going in, not necessarily popularity or quality of the consoles involved.

Actually i think that's what xBox are trying to do with their cross platform utopia.. Nintendo and Sony have the console market largely cornered so xBox need to open up new markets to work in in order to compete~

To be honest even though I thought the Switch would do well after it's initial reveal trailer, even I did not think it would do this well, even more so after the Wii U failed, shame because until the Switch came out the Wii U was my favorite Nintendo console.
 

Warnen

Don't pass gaas, it is your Destiny!
Switch is such a great system, don’t use mine much anymore but unlike the PS4/Xbox one I didn’t sell it. Saving it for my niece and nephew when they get a bit older.
 

Mozza

Member

On a related note the software sales on this console for Nintendo's first party titles are insane too, Animal crossing is very impressive as pandemic aside, the game has not even had a holiday seasons sales as yet, and Mario Kart 8, has now become the franchises best seller when you include the Wii U sales as well.
 
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