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Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon, in grassroots summit, emphasizes that their polling does NOT show a double-digit lead nationally.

Jun 26, 2013
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Polls can be accurate, but you need to avoid pitfalls like sampling bias, eliminate as many confounding variables as possible, and minimize the amount of assumptions put into the statistical analyses. The Rasmussen poll, for instance, had a huge red flag by running on the assumption that Trump would only get 74% of the Republican vote. Who knows how many more ill-advised assumptions Rasmussen and others made.

Another thing to mention is that pointing towards the margin of error does not prove a poll's accuracy. The margin of error is the confidence interval, of which the range largely depends on the level of confidence you set it at. A 65% CI will have a smaller interval than a 95% CI, which will have a smaller interval than a 99% CI. Confidence intervals are dependent on the consistency of the samples. You simply need to calculate the standard deviation and then, divide it by the square root of the sample size. This is what we call the standard error. Lastly, you multiply the SE by 2 and then add/subtract it from the mean.

If there is more variability between samples, then the CI will be large. The thing is, though, is that you can use an absolutely shit methodology and still get consistent results. Precision is not the same as accuracy. You can be precise, but be very inaccurate.
 

Kreen101

Member
Sep 4, 2019
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Yes, because Trump has the opposite problem. He's 15 points behind, so his fear is that Republicans don't even bother to vote since "all is lost anyway". Trump has to pretend he's ahead even though he's way back, and Biden has to pretend he's not ahead by much. In both cases it's about getting people to actually vote.
 

cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
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Campaigns ALWAYS say they are not ahead by very much, lest their supporters not show up to vote assuming it's in the bag.
could be the case, or could be that as she says the polls are inflated. She doesnt say Biden is losing or anything like that, just that polls arent gospel and they can be wrong, which we saw in 2016 is the case.
 

autoduelist

Gold Member
Aug 30, 2014
15,557
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Yes, because Trump has the opposite problem. He's 15 points behind, so his fear is that Republicans don't even bother to vote since "all is lost anyway". Trump has to pretend he's ahead even though he's way back, and Biden has to pretend he's not ahead by much. In both cases it's about getting people to actually vote.
I do not think any Trump supporter thinks 'all is lost'. Most also know national polls are borderline meaningless since we do not have a national vote. In some cases, you could learn more by reporting polling on a single battleground state, since at least that possibly predicts some Electoral votes.

But at this point, few Trump supporters care what the media say. Personally, I beleive my own eyes. Trump rallies are massive. Biden's are laughable. My far left city has effectively no Biden signs, if I leave the city it's American flags, Trump signs, and other support everywhere.

I admit I have no idea how reliable polls are. I do not think we know. Perhaps the pollsters do, perhaps even they aren't sure.

Ultimately, I do not think any Trump supporter is staying home, even if all was lost. This is about more than Trump. Michael Moore predicted the 2016 vote would be the biggest 'fuck you' to the Establishment of all time. I predict 2020 will put 2016 to shame.
 

Sign

Member
Jun 4, 2012
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I do not think any Trump supporter thinks 'all is lost'. Most also know national polls are borderline meaningless since we do not have a national vote. In some cases, you could learn more by reporting polling on a single battleground state, since at least that possibly predicts some Electoral votes.

But at this point, few Trump supporters care what the media say. Personally, I beleive my own eyes. Trump rallies are massive. Biden's are laughable. My far left city has effectively no Biden signs, if I leave the city it's American flags, Trump signs, and other support everywhere.

I admit I have no idea how reliable polls are. I do not think we know. Perhaps the pollsters do, perhaps even they aren't sure.

Ultimately, I do not think any Trump supporter is staying home, even if all was lost. This is about more than Trump. Michael Moore predicted the 2016 vote would be the biggest 'fuck you' to the Establishment of all time. I predict 2020 will put 2016 to shame.
Personally, I’m watching the vbm numbers and how they line up with the polls. Along with things like registrations, general enthusiasm, etc.


In terms of polls, I only pay real attention to people’s pundit / big data (guy on the left) since he was one of the most accurate in 2016.


I’m pretty sure most Trump supporters would crawl across a mile of broken glass to vote for Trump at this point. There is no dissuasion. It is going to happen.