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[Skyzard]

I don't buy the $100MM marketing budget, personally. I've worked on the launches a few pretty high profile mobile CE products and even those budgets counting digital/TV/print/OOH (Out Of Home, all the bus/subway ads) didn't hit $100MM total. I don't know what Infinite's budget would be closer to, but I'm dubious of $100MM.

International budget perhaps?

 

[Messofanego]

Keep in mind that this is not 100% confirmed officially. It is believable though, so I'll assume it is true for this thread.

Anyways, Ken Levine has said several times that they've made enough raw content for this game to fill four or five games with how much they have cut from the game over the five years of development. Considering that and the fact that they've spent nearly 5 years in full development, it's actually surprising that the pricetag for development wasn't much higher than $100 million.

Aside from so much content being thrown out or redone, the development of this game actually seems to have been pretty well-managed financially. The big issue seems to be that so much content was replaced or trashed, which is extremely costly.

Isn't that what prototypes and pre-production time is for? So you don't end up throwing out whole systems and starting over while actually making the proper game?

 

[ThaiGrocer]

Maybe they'll ride that blue ocean with a kinect patch.

 

[frankie_baby]

How do you spend $100 million on advertising?

$60m - TV ads
$30m - Internet ads
$5m - Viral marketing
$5m - Exclusive IGN review? (10.0)

hahaha, no way in hell does an exclusive ign 10.0 review cost anywhere like that much, a bag of fancy looking but cheap swag and and street hooker should do it

 

[antitrop]

Is the review posting at 12 eastern or pacific?

3 hours from this post, yo.

 

[Risette]

If it doesn't fly IT WILL be a huge flop.
The point is that ambitious projects (in terms of budget) have flopped before, T2 and Levine decided they wanted to go this route regardless.
It sounds like circular logic: Don't do ambitious projects, because their failure, could impact the chance of having future ambitious projects.

How did you get circular logic out of that? There's a line between "ambitious" and "needs to sell over 5m copies to break even"

 

[~Kinggi~]

hahaha, no way in hell does an exclusive ign 10.0 review cost anywhere like that much, a bag of fancy looking but cheap swag and and street hooker should do it

Street hookers are the shiznit.

3 hours from this post, yo.

Then i must stay awake with you brothers.

 

[bodyofanamerican]

International budget perhaps?

Good call. I worked on US only, so overseas could totally push it into that realm.

 

[Zia]

Have you actually played it?

The hype behind this reminds me of, oh, like every AAA release in the past 6 years. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a huge backlash after release.

The only games I can think of that were hyped quite like this "in the past 6 years" were The Last Guardian, Half-Life 3 and another ambitious 2K game that had a sprawling, troubled development cycle, Red Dead Redemption.

This game has absolutely no reason to be anything but incredible, nor does it have the room to be. It's expected to turn a profit, however it isn't published with the expectation of a colossal return. It's a prestige project, just like The Last Guardian, just like Half-Life 3.

 

[Tagg9]

hahaha, no way in hell does an exclusive ign 10.0 review cost anywhere like that much, a bag of fancy looking but cheap swag and and street hooker should do it

It was a joke. Even I'm not that dense...

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

hahaha, no way in hell does an exclusive ign 10.0 review cost anywhere like that much, a bag of fancy looking but cheap swag and and street hooker should do it

Four packages of Pringles and a few cases of Pepsi. Real gamer food and fuel unlike the stuff that that garbage site GT loves.

 

[Felix Lighter]

How much did the Old Republic cost? This seems like insanity.

 

[Bedlam]

Where does all that marketing money go? It's mind-boggling. And more importantly: is it really worth it to invest THAT heavily into marketing a game?

 

[PaineReign]

How many games this gen are as ambitious? Creative?

I'm glad that money is being put towards something that could very well set a new standard for g...... actually, I'm really drunk. Going to sit this thread out.

Drunkeness aside, this is how I feel as well.

Yeah, it is a lot of money, but notice how it is going to a game that is trying to push some boundaries. It is the best comparison the gaming industry has to the 160 million budget that Lincoln had.

Also, remember that money is made from more than just game sales. If you don't think they will "swag" the shit out of Infinite (Posters, T shirts, soundtracks, books and the like) your're not thinking big enough. There are some alternate revenue streams that will help them recoup, at least some, costs. Well, that is my presumption anyway. How much money do you think WB made selling "Why So Serious?" T shirts?

 

[Perfec7]

How well did Bioshock end up selling? I really can't see Infinite doing that much better...

 

[Zabka]

I remember thinking Gears was cheap at $10 mil.

 

[Poimandres]

So is this game supposed to be any good? Im guessing no one honest/unaffiliated has played it yet.

There are a few people who've been playing it in the OT, and impressions are good:

"I'm enjoying it more then B1. Yet, Rapture was more mindblowing and jarring then Columbia. That being said, the scripted events and presentation is flawless."

"there's no way this game is getting below a 9"

 

[Clear]

I'm calling bullshit right now on those alleged budget figures.

Not a chance in hell its that much. No way would anyone throw that much money at a franchise that's on the low-end of the AAA spectrum.

Bioshock sold in ~4m, Bioshock 2 did less (shipped ~3m, and didn't sell-through 100%).

Its not that much of a technological marvel, its still basically a single-player FPS running on a modified UE3 engine. Why should production costs be so high?

 

[ThaiGrocer]

I remember thinking Gears was cheap at $10 mil.

L4D2 marketing was $10 million, for comparison.

 

[Muffdraul]

How did you get circular logic out of that? There's a line between "ambitious" and "needs to sell over 5m copies to break even"

The game might end up being a milestone for all we know. A little early to cast judgment.

 

[Deleted member 80556]

100 million and all of that money comes from the consumer (gamer).

I support game development not shouting match advertising wars.


vv yes exactly (I never preorder).
That's the point of not supporting this AAA bloat, they piss so much money away on advertising.
100m budget is ridiculous and a red flag for it being a low risk appeal to the everyman focus tested into oblivion 'experience'.

Wow. So, I guess fuck the devs just for you to give the man your middle finger?

That's great I suppose, it's not like they spent 5 years of their lives doing something they thought you would enjoy.

 

[~Kinggi~]

I'm calling bullshit right now on those alleged budget figures.

Not a chance in hell its that much. No way would anyone throw that much money at a franchise that's on the low-end of the AAA spectrum.

Bioshock sold in ~4m, Bioshock 2 did less (shipped ~3m, and didn't sell-through 100%).

Its not that much of a technological marvel, its still basically a single-player FPS running on a modified UE3 engine. Why should production costs be so high?

Ken's genius requires much sustenance to power properly.

 

[FINALBOSS]

The game is going to sell like wildfire.

 

[dragonflys545]

Damn... Good luck trying to make that back.

 

[I NEED SCISSORS]

You say overbloated, I say commitment to quality.

I suppose we will have to wait and see, as it's incredibly hit or miss. GTA4 and Max Payne 3 were definitely NOT worth the asking price (the latter is a linear shooter that should have been made for about 1/3 of the price and in half the time).

Red Dead took up a lot of money and was excellent, but even then I don't think it was worth the asking price and development length.

 

[Guess Who]

100m budget is ridiculous and a red flag for it being a low risk appeal to the everyman focus tested into oblivion 'experience'.

Or maybe it's the other way around, they're spending so much marketing it because it's not the type of game that would easily sell to the masses and it needs all the help it can get? This is more a testament to your cynicism than anything.

 

[Spongebob]

How many copies do they need to sell to break even?

 

[Gamejunky]

I'm doing my part by buying the overpriced 150 dollar collector's version. You're welcome Ken.

 

[frankie_baby]

How many copies do they need to sell to break even?

somewhere between 5 and 10 million

 

[Yasae]

I don't think we can even estimate how many units it will take to break even. They may have spent $200 million but that may not be even close to what they actually lost given taxes. Some expenses like employee salaries are immediately deductible and you can depreciate (meaning deduct over time) the money you spend on equipment and buildings. Plus there are many federal and state law tax breaks for the industry. Some of the advertising expenses are deductible. Irrational is owned by Take Two so Take Two may be able to use some of these deductions depending on a ton of factors. Now this is a very simplistic and potentially erroneous analysis of the situation. But just because you spent 200 million to make a game does not mean you are actually out 200 million.

I think you'd have trouble justifying "ordinary and necessary" advertising/marketing expenses for this. Perhaps a portion could fall under this umbrella but not $100M. If it could, then that's one of the biggest loopholes in financial history.

Employees are going to be maybe $5M assuming a team of about 100 (?) and wagering the cost of payroll taxes against this deduction.

Equipment and buildings are probably going to be kept separate from the game budget. Unless there was a notable about of R&D for this specific project (and even then), those are not significant project costs for an established developer.

The tax breaks I haven't read into very much and am unsure of. I get the feeling those are probably obscure loopholes since I haven't heard much litigation specifically giving tax breaks to game developers, at least not in the US.

 

[jett]

$100 million only for a single player, probably an inflated number, hope the game is as good as the first one, at least.

I hope it's considerably better.

 

[MormaPope]

Take Two is sending this game to die, same thing happened with Max Payne 3, huge amount of money put towards marketing a game that wouldn't or couldn't break 5 million copies.

GTA V is coming out this year though, maybe Take Two is depending on that to make up for any losses Infinite may have.

 

[alexandros]

2K in three months' time:

 

[A More Normal Bird]

Source is an unnamed analyst? Yeah, I'm treating this as a lot less certain than the thread title does.

 

[Max]

Well, its 100 million for marketing and I forgot this game was coming out next week.

This is what's really sad

 

[Vire]

That is really worrying. I hope they can recoup the costs since I love these games...

 

[MormaPope]

2K in three months' time:

They might just be frisky and such with GTA V coming out in under 6 months, I wonder if they'll spend less on marketing for that since it's a extremely well known franchise.

Source is an unnamed analyst? Yeah, I'm treating this as a lot less certain than the thread title does.

This too, credibility and being confident with the information you have can indicate whether or not the actual information is true.

 

[Etnos]

I'm not even sure what point you're trying to make here.

over rated developer, is over rated.

 

[DR2K]

100 million on marketing alone? This is a guaranteed bomb in terms of return unless they sneak in a GTAV beta or something.

 

[frankie_baby]

Take Two is sending this game to die, same thing happened with Max Payne 3, huge amount of money put towards marketing a game that wouldn't or couldn't break 5 million copies.

GTA V is coming out this year though, maybe Take Two is depending on that to make up for any losses Infinite may have.

with the way take 2 has been over the last few years it wouldnt surprise me if they dont make that much money on gta5

 

[baxter2231]

having bioshock 2 free on ps+ is good marketing, how often can you do marketing and get paid to do it. =)

 

[ThaiGrocer]

2K in three months' time:

They're just preparing for the grandest Humble Bundle next year.

 

[fritolay]

I have never played a game of this series, and have never really seen much advertising. I don't think they are spending wisely on the advertising front.

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

they will easily sell around 3 million so its not a bad situation at all

Does that number take out retailer margins and production costs? Probably not.

 

[Skybound]

COD hits 100 mil usually?

Where they get these numbers from?

 

[Dash Kappei]

How much copies they need to sell at full price to get the budget back ?

1.6Mil+

they will easily sell around 3 million so its not a bad situation at all

They'll probably manage it. I'm not surprised at this at all, tbh.

wait that's it? Suddenly this structure doesn't sound so insane after all. (to select games of course, not as a model overall)

That's because it's more close to 6M copies, not 1.6M, lol.
And you can be sure publishers don't qualify merely "recouping costs" as a success.
To be a SUCCESS Bioshock Infinite needs to sell close to 8M copies. I don't see that happening.

 

[Hindle]

Skyrim did 10m so it is possible this could as well.

 

[Kandinsky]

No way the publisher gets $36. They have to pay license fees to Sony/Microsoft, then manufacturing fees, and retailers probably pay ~$35. It's more like $25 profit per unit.

Yeah I always thought the 36 figure was for first party games.

 

[Mystic_Wanderer]

There is absolutely zero chance the budget for this game even approaches 200 million.

Assuming ~$25-$30 per copy sold, they expect to sell 6.7-8 million to break even, not even profit.

Why don't people use their heads before blindly accepting obviously fake numbers.

 

[polyh3dron]

I already have XCOM so I won't be preordering at full price.. Will be waiting for some $35~ GMG type deal.