Brexit

Aug 22, 2018
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So I'm going to make a shock admission. I voted leave. Yes I know I'm a leftie, by rights I should vote remain shouldn't I? Or If I voted leave shouldn't I be a foaming-at-the-mouth racist who keeps a life-size cardboard cut-out of Nigel Farage in his living room and reads the Sun? Ah well, it's a little more complex than that.

So before I ramble on about why I voted as I did, I should probably state the intent of the thread. Basically I figure it'd be fun to field some views on Brexit from what I hope is a fairly diverse audience (ie not RockPaperShotgun). I'm sure some of you will disagree with me intensely, and the reverse will likely also be true, but hopefully I can hear from some people with different opinions to mine and learn something.

So, why I voted leave. First of all I don't necessarily consider that the EU in its current form is exclusively an agent for good. The original intent was noble, it has done a pretty good job of reducing war in Europe (effectively to zero among member states). However, the organisation as it stands today is not that organisation, and doesn't necessarily have those motives.

Like any organisation, once it is created, its primary purpose is to maintain its existence. This comes about from people within forming careers within it, such that they become dependent upon it, and people outside perceiving opportunities if they can get in. The secondary purpose of any organisation, especially once it has achieved its goal, is to expand. In the case of the EU it has expanded in its role within its member states, but also expanded geographically (which in my view has been a huge mistake but we'll come to that).

The EU has done much that is good, such as enhanced employment rights for instance, and regulation to ensure that the consumer gets a safer, higher quality product (because market forces tend to push in the direction of cheapness instead of quality). It has however also done tremendous harm.

The obvious example of this is the Southern states of Europe, who have faced enormous hardships thanks to being members of a currency union run primarily for the benefit of the Northern and central economies. Think of the mess in Greece (ok they created some of their own problems with a rather unbalanced economy and endemic corruption but not being in control of their own currency left them with no options to resolve the crisis and left them with uncompetitive exports and an expensive tourist economy - back when they had the Drachma Greece was cheap!). Spain, Portugal and Italy are all experiencing their own particular problems, all very much related to that lack of control. It is my view that the Euro would have worked better had it been initially 3 or 4 currencies - a Northern/central Euro, a Southern Euro, an Eastern Euro and possibly a new-entrants Euro for the newer poverty-stricken entrants. By grouping them this way, each area would have a currency broadly aligned to its needs, and slowly the regions could be brought together to form a Europe-wide Euro that fits all members more effectively. Instead, in an idiological move, the EU pressed ahead with a single currency for the whole continent. It has been an absolute disaster.

The next disaster has been free movement. Again, idiologically it sounds wonderful, the ability to work where you like. What could be wrong with that? That's great for workers right? Not so much. It might have worked if it had been regional like the currencies as I mentioned, so that movement would be more multidirectional and equivalent. However, the EU expanded ever-eastward into countries which were really not ready to integrate into the EU and what we have seen is a flow of migrant workers to the richer nations. The effect of this has been to depress wages and lock out the bottom rungs of the ladder for the native populations, while draining the parent countries of their talent (though they do at least get money sent back from the host countries to [in theory] boost their economies). Now this is of course a contentious issue. Middle-class people dare not say it for fear of being branded racist. They also don't face stiff competition from Eastern Europeans for their jobs. For the poor however.. when was the last time you saw a British person working in a Subway, or cleaning, or working on a building site? No it's not because the British aren't applying, it's simply the case that those roles are now wholly owned by Eastern Europeans (to the extent that for many building sites the lingua franca is no longer English - an English person would thus be useless because s/he would not understand a word).

This has of course led (in part) to the rise of the far right. Shorn of hope, the opportunity to work and earn a dignified living to buy a house, a right afforded to our parents let's not forget, they either give up or rebel. The brexit vote was a symptom of that.

Now let's consider that Eastward expansion for a moment. Europe is of course in the grip of a rising far right, that we must acknowledge. It has also added countries for whom democracy and the rule of law are not necessarily set in stone. The EU, in my opinion, runs the risk of either becoming frozen by those additions, or being cowed by them. And who can forget the Ukranian mess? We poked the Russian bear, and were surprised when the bear attacked, and then we did nothing. Not a damn thing. The EU has forgotten a basic rule of international diplomacy, that you should speak softly and carry a big stick. The EU shouts loudly and lacks any stick. No wonder Vlad is laughing at us.

Anyway, apologies for a bit of a ramble - this is rather thrown together on a lunch break and at some point I'll put together a more coherent thing than this stream of consciousness, but I hope it gives some insight into the brexit vote. Or you could just call me a twat. That works too.
 

AV

Gold Member
May 31, 2018
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#3
  • AV

    AV

I voted to stay purely because the overwhelming majority of economists' views on the topic that I read came to the conclusion that it'd be a bad idea, and so far that seems to ring true. If what I'm reading is right, the pound is weaker than where it would have been if the vote didn't go ahead - but I'm not even going to pretend to begin to understand the financials. I also think that, having visited most of Europe, most of the countries there are nicer places than Britain, though that hardly matters.

However I'm really not passionate one way or the other. My sister cried when she heard the news, but couldn't actually explain why she was upset. Just a gut reaction I guess. I was on a cruise holiday during the vote with mostly British tourists and it definitely caused some tension among the passengers.
 
Aug 22, 2018
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On the economic front - it may well cost a few quid in the short term but I think actually it may be a good thing longer term. British businesses have become rather addicted to cheap labour, and as a result haven't been innovating. I'm sure you'll have heard about productivity mysteriously failing to rise when historically it has always managed to do so. The other consideration is the distribution of the pie. One could argue that much of the benefit of being in the EU is not derived by the general population but rather by the financial institutions, bigger businesses, etc. I would suggest that for the ordinary working class person, the improved chance of getting a job will do more for his/her personal circumstances than an extra 0.1% on GDP.
 
Nov 24, 2013
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#5
My wife and I didn’t vote in the end because we were torn. Our heart probably said leave but our brain said if leave wins they will make an intentional mess of it. All because most our government globalists don’t really want to do it. Plus we don’t have kids so nobody to have to deal with a shitty future because of what happens, one way or another.

You are right though the EU has pushed too far and has decimated the opportunity for the working classes in the once better countries. It should have stuck as a sensible trade deal between the few wealthiest nations of Europe and not grown into what it has now become. However that has always been the plan really.

I don’t think the EU will survive in the long run, not unless they drastically change their ways anyway. If we leave properly and then another biggie does like Italy then it could crumble rather quickly. And ultimately I believe the Islamic immigration will be the death of it all within 100 years.
 
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Redneckerz

Those long posts don't cover that red neck boy
Jun 25, 2018
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#6
I remember having a Facebook talk with a rather casual accomplice around this matter. Note: He lives in the UK, i don't, so i figure our viewing points would make up for a nice talk.

What i observed is how this dude would consistently repost every living thing under the sun to crap on people who wouldn't vote to leave and considered that leaving would be the best thing happening to the UK since sliced bread and Mythbusters came to be. This aggresive notion was also displayed in our talks on brexit, where essentially i was ruled a clown for observing that leaving could have a negative impact for more ways than one (It being a monumental task to accomplish being one). Remember: This is before the whole voting took place and May did her bids aswell and so many party members went on to leave or get replaced).

So, the votes came in.. and it turned out that the majority of the youngsters, to which this dude also was part of, voted to stay. It was actually the older part of the country, the 60+'s and up, that voted to leave. (I really wish i had that chart somewhere that showed this so so well). Happy days, you think, right? Well, this dude sure was, he was so so happy that people listened and voted for change, although he was unaware that it was actually the older parts of the nation that facilitated this brexit.

Fast forward to recent times. Sometimes i would want to talk about this kind of thing to him again. But, then i observe that his FB is poofed, and apparently, as i found out, this happened relatively quick as Brexit consequences began to be apparent. Just gone, every thing he argued for and rooted for with such passion.

To this very day that whole interaction i had with him is in my memory. Because i geniunely could not believe that me simply suggesting that a leave could have a negative impact would see me being put on ignore by him... only for what i assumed would (sadly) become reality.

Its not even a tale of why do people not listen to common sense, because i reckon he definitely understood where i came from. It was more that this guy was so much on the edge that he silenced everyone who dared to imply they were pro-Remain, and so utterly childishly removed his account when he realized he voted for a clusterfuck to happen.

Its okay to admit defeat. And ill happily will admit defeat if the UK would somehow gain stronger out of the current mess. They might even just reverse the decision, at the cost of looking like a clown to the world for years to come (And to a significant portion of their own citizens.) But being this defensive, calling people morons and sheeple and then when the odds don't rule in your favor (As obvious as that never was going to happen) so childishly back out of what you stood for, now that is what i call cowardly and sheep-like behavior.

At least own your moan. :lollipop_confused:

Either way that's just my musings about the Brexit. I think for the people there the situation has turned so incredibly complex that not only the people don't know what the heck is happening anymore: Not even the political parties know what is going on anymore.
 
Apr 18, 2018
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#7
The "European Union" will end up becoming a vassal state for someone who wants to preserve them for... historical curiosity (or something similarly degrading). Europe used to be full of competing countries that showed off to one another by conquering chunks of the world. I'm not saying that was ethically right or sustainable, nor am I saying that they should jump back on the warpath, but European countries each have a legacy that I think gets squished by "muh Union and muh Euro".
 
Likes: Cybrwzrd
Dec 5, 2013
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#8
Well I'm French but I've been living in the UK for the past 10 years (3 years university studies, 7 years working).
As a non native I was not allowed to vote but to be honest I do not know what I would have voted for.
The EU as a concept seems good to me but as an organisation it now seems bloated, messy and inefective.
I benefited from the EU as in it was really easy to go study abroad but it's not like it would have been impossible otherwise.
The thing is the UK already had preferencial treatment within the EU so I think stay would be better but I probably would have voted leave just to try and regain state autonomy as I would like France to do.
 
Aug 22, 2018
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@Redneckerz - so yeah sorry about my fellow Brit there. Sounds a bit of a blowhard, we have those as everyone else does sadly. It's certainly true that a fair proportion of those who voted leave were simply parrotting the work of the Daily Mail, hence reposting all that shit. I would also argue that the mandate was insufficient, even if I agree with the outcome. It needed something closer to a proper majority of the voting population.

FWIW I don't consider you a clown for observing that bad things could happen, because you're right, they could happen. It could be a monumental fuck-up, and with our current clusterfuck of clowns running the show it does rather look that way. The truly remarkable thing is that, where historically even if you considered the Tories to be utter scum, they were COMPETENT scum. They don't even own that anymore. Indeed I'd say they lack much of their identity (I remember the days of them proclaiming themselves the champions of free enterprise - that's long gone but that's a conversation for another day). Anyway apologies I side-tracked. The point is that yes you're right, it could be a clusterfuck, and on current approach likely will be one. But for poor people in the UK, well they're already fucked anyway so they may as well roll the dice, just as American rust belt did on Trump (who at least acknowledged their existence even if his policies seem designed to outright kill them). For me, a leftie, well I take the view that if we can get the Tories out, the cake might be smaller but we can have a shot at distributing it more evenly, such that the vast majority are better off. To do that, we need to work on supply and demand in the labour market, which we can't do within the EU.

Disappointed that your friend disappeared, a cowardly approach, though I will say that with the association that has come from voting leave, that you're automatically a racist scumbag who probably beats brown people up for fun, perhaps he just didn't want the hassle anymore (not from you, but from others)? Who knows, I can't speak for him, but certainly I find it uncomfortable being in a very 'remain' area - I'm firmly in the minority and even my wife is a remainer - because people can get really quite nasty about the whole thing.

FWIW re reversing the decision, I'm not sure that's likely to happen any time soon. It would be political suicide for anyone who did it, bizarrely (even a 2nd referendum is a pretty toxic issue). People who choose remain aren't sheep, they're not idiots, they have their view, I have mine, and they happen to be different, though I'd very much like remainers to stop assuming all leavers are racists (the likes of Farage and the Sun/Mail readers are - but plenty are not), and I'd like both sides to realise the issues are really much more complex than 'x is racist' or 'y is elitist' or whatever other shite people are throwing around. As you observe, our political parties are a shambles on this issue. In a way, we probably need to just get it over and done with to give them time to get the fighting done, get their shit together and move on.
 
Likes: Hayfield
Aug 22, 2018
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#10
I benefited from the EU as in it was really easy to go study abroad but it's not like it would have been impossible otherwise.
Yep, one of the things that bugs me about the over-emotional end of remainer argument. We can still do much of what we could before, we'll just need a bit more paperwork with visas etc but as someone who has lived outside the EU I can say it's not such a huge hardship, the rest of the world copes just fine.
 
Likes: Hayfield
Aug 17, 2018
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#11
I voted to leave. It felt like they wanted to march towards the United States of Europe and I wasn't for that. Also I despise the Euro and want a points based immigration system. Respect those that voted the other way but wouldn't be in favour of another referendum.
 

Redneckerz

Those long posts don't cover that red neck boy
Jun 25, 2018
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#12
@Redneckerz - so yeah sorry about my fellow Brit there. Sounds a bit of a blowhard, we have those as everyone else does sadly. It's certainly true that a fair proportion of those who voted leave were simply parrotting the work of the Daily Mail, hence reposting all that shit. I would also argue that the mandate was insufficient, even if I agree with the outcome. It needed something closer to a proper majority of the voting population.
FWIW, i would have voted to remain because a Leave would have constituted so many changes, and you see what has happened now. I know that in general people love to assume negative things on anything, but in this case, being negative and cynical imo was the right call to make. You simply can't trust a gov, especially of this size, to be capable of handling such a enormous change.*

*And all that because of a bet that Cameron made. :pie_eyeroll:

FWIW I don't consider you a clown for observing that bad things could happen, because you're right, they could happen. It could be a monumental fuck-up, and with our current clusterfuck of clowns running the show it does rather look that way. The truly remarkable thing is that, where historically even if you considered the Tories to be utter scum, they were COMPETENT scum. They don't even own that anymore. Indeed I'd say they lack much of their identity (I remember the days of them proclaiming themselves the champions of free enterprise - that's long gone but that's a conversation for another day). Anyway apologies I side-tracked. The point is that yes you're right, it could be a clusterfuck, and on current approach likely will be one. But for poor people in the UK, well they're already fucked anyway so they may as well roll the dice, just as American rust belt did on Trump (who at least acknowledged their existence even if his policies seem designed to outright kill them). For me, a leftie, well I take the view that if we can get the Tories out, the cake might be smaller but we can have a shot at distributing it more evenly, such that the vast majority are better off. To do that, we need to work on supply and demand in the labour market, which we can't do within the EU.
I would have suggested to have them take a look at what Iceland did when Icesave ruined their country back in 2008. They created this trading union with a few other countries similar to how the EEG was back in the 50's, made proper deals and voila, 10 years later they are running it better than it should. Just running sidelines with the EU and not interfering with them. Iceland is an example done right.

Ofcourse, this is a rather generic statement. And Iceland is not a big ass country in comparison to UK. But, i do think that if this was explored from the start, it would seen more chances of success than what you have now, where the Gov can't even decide with what message they go to Brussel.

Disappointed that your friend disappeared, a cowardly approach, though I will say that with the association that has come from voting leave, that you're automatically a racist scumbag who probably beats brown people up for fun, perhaps he just didn't want the hassle anymore (not from you, but from others)?
I wouldn't know. I mean, it is Facebook, which isn't exactly a platform where people go to for proper discourse on literally anything ever given its the originator of the Likes 4 support system, but it may very well be. That, or he just blocked anything negatively coming his way. When you have a certain view, most people, including myself, wouldn't be easy to sway.

However to block me at the mere sight of someone stating that this could end up badly, that's just Looney Tunes to me.
FWIW re reversing the decision, I'm not sure that's likely to happen any time soon. It would be political suicide for anyone who did it, bizarrely (even a 2nd referendum is a pretty toxic issue).
I think pretty much every option that is thought of has severe consequences.
  • Going with a hard Brexit: Significant financial consequences.
  • Going with a soft Brexit: Continued political unrest, potential riots on the street.
  • Going with a ''a little bit of both'' Brexit aka the compromise: It seems is this is what they are trying now and there are various pockets of dissent and there is no clear message. The proverbial much ado about nothing.
  • With no plan to Brussel: Diplomatic devastation. ''Why take the UK seriously when they can't even take their own referendum seriously?'' is going to be one of the views then.
  • Looking for a second referendum: High probability of a big portion of the people citing riots and protests, essentially nullfying what nearly half of the country voted for.
  • Reversing the decision: Policial suicides, new elections, perhaps. Also a big financial consequences because i am sure the EU will not have second thoughts on whether or not to give the UK a big fat bill for essentially ''wasting multiple countries's geopolitical time''.
I have a feeling the Gov is still looking for a solution that won't hurt them in the process in some way, shape or form. I realize this is an unsubstantiated opinion, though, but i cannot see one size fits all solution that won't hurt the nation in some way or shape. At this stage i feel the May Administration has to pick the lesser of multiple poisons and swallow it whole. I know this is a cynical view to have, but even in the best outcome, you will still have people with power upset at how this is played out and they will influence that future debate.

Its a no show, i feel. And i wonder if Cameron ever realized the full extent of the possible consequences when he made that bet (and lost his position as a result).
 
Aug 22, 2018
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I'm not sure the government is so much looking for a solution that won't hurt them, rather the current government is such a mess with such a wafer-thin majority having to manage so many competing groups that all fundamentally disagree with each other to remain in government (I would describe them as 'in government but not in power') that actually it's impossible to put together a coherent message about what they actually want. Honestly this happened at the worst possible time in many ways, when there is so very little actual talent in parliament - we really do have the weakest group of politicians (on both sides of the chamber) that I can ever remember us having.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Jun 1, 2009
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I voted to Remain. And I still think that we should.

The referendum promised, and many people voted Leave on the basis of, a scenario that is just not possible - that of having many of the benefits of being in the EU without the associated costs (in money, in sovereignty, in freedom of movement). A hard Brexit was not even contemplated by the Leave campaigners.

(Just to clear one thing up though - I know maybe 200 people who voted to Leave, and only two of them are unredeemed racist xenophobes. It's not a characteristic of the species.)

So what if 50 or 80% of our laws are made by the EU? They are made that way so we can trade freely and fairly and they are the same everywhere. The Germans had to sacrifice their beloved beer purity laws for example. And much of what is claimed as ridiculous EU bureaucracy only replaced our own similarly ridiculous bureaucracy.

So what if we are a net contributor to the EU? It's fair. We are one of the richer countries. We are a net contributor to Scotland as well, and we don't want to separate from them (though not vice-versa for some!).

So what if there is freedom of movement for workers? That is the free market in operation. It leads to lower costs all round.

So what if EU judges hear cases and decide against our government? So do English judges. And nearly always the judges are right and it is the government is wrong.

I worry greatly that Brexit will lead to the same sort of xenophobic isolationism that we've seen recently in the US and Poland; that it will lead to withdrawal also from the Council of Europe and the Court of Human Rights; that it will tank the currency, shove up taxes, stifle the economy, and further polarise us politically.

I have customers in France, Germany, Portugal, Cyprus, Romania, Hungary, Poland as well as Australia, USA and Japan. I make my living by importing and selling stuff, and if the cost of imports goes up and the cost of selling goes up that spells deep trouble - on day one, not merely in the long term. I am currently being bombarded with advice to make a contingency plan for a hard Brexit (which apparently boils down to prebuying a load of stock with money I don't have and that I have nowhere to store).

It's all a bit of a worry, and I am not usually the worrying sort.

If we do leave the EU, my vote will go to whichever party promises credibly to take us straight back in.
 
Apr 10, 2007
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Actually experienced more racism from central and eastern euro migrants over my Turkish parentage than i have from other born-and-bred British citizens like myself. Been a bit annoying, really.
 
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i_am_ben

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Feb 5, 2008
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Ironically, the UK was one of the chief proponents of the EU's eastward expansion as a way to undermine the cohesiveness.
 
Jul 31, 2018
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I'm American and won't claim expertise on European politics. From an outside perspective, I'd say that the end result of the EU could only be one of two things: one nation or a breakup. The idea of a number of autonomous states under a limited central government sounds good, but it doesn't work. Point at any patch of ground, and there's one true authority over it, or none. It's inevitable that the member states will clash with the central government, and only one can win on any given issue.

The US learned that the hard way. North and South had more in common with each other than the EU states do, yet slavery and economic issues tore them apart. It cost 2% of the population to resolve those problems, resulting in one nation. Civil war in the EU is probably unlikely, but without one, it's hard to see how it can last.
 
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As a European from a EU sceptic country, Im sad to see Britain leave because it leaves all the other members pushing against the United States of Europe without a powerful voice on their side.

Many of my pro brexit points have been aired already, like how the euro was used as a political tool to connect countries rather than waiting for it to become a natural extention of European politics, or at least making several currencies based on macro economic performance. The (too) early expansion across eastern Europe is another.

Some subjects that could be added are the election of Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the European commission, and not ousting him after Luxleaks proved that his national career was based on screwing the rest of the Union.
That Germany dictated an economic policy that was more of benefit to themselves than the countries in major trouble after the economic crisis. Not to absolve Greece, Italy, Spain and others of guilt in their deroute, but ten years of high youth unemployment will arguably cause more problems for the EU than the economic whipping will solve long term.

Not to mention the effects of quantitative easing and how it mostly benefitted multimillionaires and helped almost triple the number of billionaires in the world in the last 10 years.

Simon Wren-Lewis has a lot of posts on his blog that are well argued on these topics (except the Jean-Claude Juncker and billionaire part) that are easily searchable by keywords: https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/ he is worth a read even if you don’t agree with his remainer stance.
 
Likes: bad guy
May 23, 2016
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#21
I don't understand how powerhouse economies like Germany, France and the UK can be in the same political conglomerate as the "powerhouse economies" like Romania and Greece.

Look, I get it, Germany needs the EU or no one can afford to buy anything, but the UK is not a European country. We should never have joined.
I really hope Italy jumps in with the UK and leaves. Let it all crumble down.
 
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Likes: Hayfield
Jan 7, 2018
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I don't understand how powerhouse economies like Germany, France and the UK can be in the same political conglomerate as the "powerhouse economies" like Romania and Greece.

Look, I get it, Germany needs the EU or no one can afford to buy anything, but the UK is not a European country. We should never have joined.
I really hope Italy jumps in with the UK and leaves. Let it all crumble down.
what makes Germany an EU country but not Italy?
I'm American and won't claim expertise on European politics. From an outside perspective, I'd say that the end result of the EU could only be one of two things: one nation or a breakup. The idea of a number of autonomous states under a limited central government sounds good, but it doesn't work. Point at any patch of ground, and there's one true authority over it, or none. It's inevitable that the member states will clash with the central government, and only one can win on any given issue.

The US learned that the hard way. North and South had more in common with each other than the EU states do, yet slavery and economic issues tore them apart. It cost 2% of the population to resolve those problems, resulting in one nation. Civil war in the EU is probably unlikely, but without one, it's hard to see how it can last.
Like an actual civil war? That would be pretty bloody and may even affect the global economy.
 
Likes: Snow_Lizard
Apr 3, 2018
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#23
Let's be honest, the vast majority of people who voted in the referendum had little to no knowledge about the EU, about the benefits of membership, about the "membership fee" etc.

I was one of them, so I based my vote on economic and EU experts who had some knowledge about the EU and the impact of leave on the UK economy, rather than Farage or Johnson.

The economists and the experts were, unsurprisingly, correct and the loud nationalist blowhards harping on about "Empire" were wrong.

Just look at what happened after the referendum, none of the leave campaigners wanted to take the PM position, and instead we got Theresa May, someone who campaigned to remain, to attempt to fix this quagmire.
 
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The next disaster has been free movement. Again, idiologically it sounds wonderful, the ability to work where you like. What could be wrong with that? That's great for workers right? Not so much. It might have worked if it had been regional like the currencies as I mentioned, so that movement would be more multidirectional and equivalent. However, the EU expanded ever-eastward into countries which were really not ready to integrate into the EU and what we have seen is a flow of migrant workers to the richer nations. The effect of this has been to depress wages and lock out the bottom rungs of the ladder for the native populations, while draining the parent countries of their talent (though they do at least get money sent back from the host countries to [in theory] boost their economies).

It's a feature not a bug. The same reason conservative scumbags like Merkel suddenly became "humanitarian" and brought thousands upon thousands of immigrants in EU, they need a cheap workforce for their puppet masters. EU became USA lite a long time ago, imo a hard Brexit while tories destroy themselves and then a Corbyn win would be absolutely amazing news for UK. There's still hope for the country unlike the rest of Europe that will have to deal wit the neoliberal shithole that is the EU until the next financial crisis which imo could destroy it. At the very least the Euro can't possibly survive another economic crisis, it's a shit currency that only serves very specific interests at the expense of everyone else including its own stability.
 
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I'm a virulent leaver, I have been a Euro sceptic since 2001 and the William Hague save the pound campaign that deterred Blair from joining the Euro (with Gordon Browns scepticism) and I can honestly say the night the referendum result came in was exhilarating.
A great swell of political engagement, those who hadn't voted for decades, who had never voted came out and voted in their droves and voted to leave, because finally something mattered, millions of the disaffected the silent majority to steal Nixon's phrase fought for the sovereignty of the United kingdom.
And now we have the creaking levers of power refusing to accept it, capital finance, the courts, non governmental organisations, numerous think tanks fighting against the people. The deceitful line of accepting the result while doing everything possible to frustrate it parroted by the likes of Anna Soubry, and a Prime Minister in charge of process she doesn't believe in.
When we don't leave the EU next year and the establishment machine cranks out the falicy that we have in a technical sense, I wonder what the reaction will be, an impotent fury or an explosive rage.
 
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#27
I'm a virulent leaver, I have been a Euro sceptic since 2001 and the William Hague save the pound campaign that deterred Blair from joining the Euro (with Gordon Browns scepticism) and I can honestly say the night the referendum result came in was exhilarating.
A great swell of political engagement, those who hadn't voted for decades, who had never voted came out and voted in their droves and voted to leave, because finally something mattered, millions of the disaffected the silent majority to steal Nixon's phrase fought for the sovereignty of the United kingdom.
And now we have the creaking levers of power refusing to accept it, capital finance, the courts, non governmental organisations, numerous think tanks fighting against the people. The deceitful line of accepting the result while doing everything possible to frustrate it parroted by the likes of Anna Soubry, and a Prime Minister in charge of process she doesn't believe in.
When we don't leave the EU next year and the establishment machine cranks out the falicy that we have in a technical sense, I wonder what the reaction will be, an impotent fury or an explosive rage.
Tbh the reason they would freak out is if footie was cancelled
 
Apr 3, 2018
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#28
I'm a virulent leaver, I have been a Euro sceptic since 2001 and the William Hague save the pound campaign that deterred Blair from joining the Euro (with Gordon Browns scepticism) and I can honestly say the night the referendum result came in was exhilarating.
A great swell of political engagement, those who hadn't voted for decades, who had never voted came out and voted in their droves and voted to leave, because finally something mattered, millions of the disaffected the silent majority to steal Nixon's phrase fought for the sovereignty of the United kingdom.
And now we have the creaking levers of power refusing to accept it, capital finance, the courts, non governmental organisations, numerous think tanks fighting against the people. The deceitful line of accepting the result while doing everything possible to frustrate it parroted by the likes of Anna Soubry, and a Prime Minister in charge of process she doesn't believe in.
When we don't leave the EU next year and the establishment machine cranks out the falicy that we have in a technical sense, I wonder what the reaction will be, an impotent fury or an explosive rage.
UK sovereignty? What laws from the EU are you happy to get rid off? Apart from free movement ofcourse?
And be honest, vast majority of people who voted were, and dare say still are, ignorant of the EU institution.
 
Likes: jufonuk
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#29
/raises hand, as an American can someone from the UK explain to me why the British who are pro stayers or pro leavers. That despite being in the EU, why the UK never fully officially adopted the Euro as it's official currency? Despite France, Germany, Italy all the other large EU nations adopting the Euro as it's currency.

If you are a stayer, than why don't you want the Euro as your official currency, which seems to be an issue a majority of British are against.

From an outsider, it seems as if the UK has always had a one foot in the water, one foot out approach towards the EU to begin with.
 
May 17, 2018
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#30
I see both sides of it and both sides are right. It is wise to be part the EU as we are all part of the global economy. At same time the EU is overstepping its bounds dictating foreign policy to it's members.
 
Likes: bad guy
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#32
Well the truth is the vast majority of the UK population had no idea who their MEP was and which national party they represented, the poll rates were comically low. Figures here if you're interested, what's more concerning is that turnout has been falling precipitously across the EU for the last 40 years. Hardly the sign of a healthy democratic process.
 
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#33
The funny thing about all the wailing and complaining that Brexit isn't living up to the hype is that every single fucker in politics who wanted Brexit had the opportunity to be extremely influential.

Farage? Completely fucked off IMMEDIATELY after the vote.

Boris Johnson? Wanted to replace Cameron till he realised how hard it would be, allowed Theresa May to soak up the INEVITABLE backlash once certain brits realised almost nothing they were promised was true, then ramps up his "voice of dissent" when he smells blood. Leave the EU so we can pay for the NHS. Lol. Okay. "We absolutely don't need to pay any divorce bill". Lol okay.

David Davis? Showed he has no fucking clue how the EU even works by promising voters that the UK will be able to create trade deals with individual EU member states (literally impossible) Put in charge of the negotiations anyway, accomplishes absolutely fuck all progress of any kind, then pisses off once the PM actually steps in and actually does something to make sure we don't crash out.


All the big names fucked off out of the spotlight, only to piss and moan in the shadows about the inevitably poor outlook once more information about what Brexit will actually mean for the UK floats up above the religion like "I believe in brexit" bollocks that is becoming less and less effective in the public sphere.


If Brexit was supposed to be so amazing and easy to make work well, then at least one of these pricks should have had some sort of winning plan.........

Of course twats will now say that simply crashing out was the plan all along when even Farage was floating the "norway type" deal and others were dismissing the idea of leaving the single market as "project fear".

Apparently all the fishers and whatever other industries who supported Brexit did so expecting to have WTO tariffs on all their exports.

Obviously.

And all the "economically anxious" poor people who voted for Brexit out of sheer desperation to survive did so expecting that themselves and their families will be even poorer and have 20% knocked off the purchase power of their currency.

Obviously.


Brexit is the most idiotic thing I've ever seen the UK vote for.

Vote for conservatives to gut all your social safety nets and services, then somehow manage to be convinced to blame all your problems in life on the fucking EU.


It's not the shitty companies paying peanuts for work that's the problem, it's the EU!

It's not the governmentss fault that people feel like shit it's the EU!

It's not the fact that the NHS has been underfunded and the government has been shutting down accident and emergencys up and down the country to make the books look good that means you're waiting longer to be seen in hospital, it's the EU!

So we're leaving! Fucking EU, always doing all the things. Can't stand it the way they always do all the things like that.

Once we leave the EU well finally be able to do all the things like......I don't know, hormone beef, fish, more expensive everything, less safety, no trade deals for years (because it takes that long to negotiate them). It'll be so amaze.


And the most hilarious thing of all, is that all the brown and polish people who supposedly ruined the UK with their corner shops and poslki skleps, and muslimity, will still be there the day after we leave the EU. They'll still be there, ruining all our lives.


Brexit is totally worth it. For sure.

After all, you don't need a plan, you don't need competent leadership, you don't need negotiators who actually understand how the EU works, you don't even need economic analysis.

You just need to believe.

Believe in Brexit.

Believe in ourselves.

Because there's nothing you can't achieve, when you believe.

It's like when a paranoid schizophrenic is having delusions of grandeur, that they and they alone can do great feats that can fix all the problems in one fell (and simply implemented) swoop.

We simply leave the EU and because the EU needs us more than we need them, they'll not only have the best deal out of any member state like we have already, but we'll be able to leave the entire Eau and still benefit from it.

Itll be amazing.

We can even do individual trade deals with each member state! (The fact that after making this statement David Davis was promoted to the guy literally in charge of delivering Brexit instead of laughed out of politics forever in a "what's an Aleppo?" type thing just goes to show how uneducated and incompetent the voterbase is when it comes to the EU and that the decision should never have been given to anyone who didn't show that they even knew what they were voting for/against.


I mean, if you're on a plane waiting to take off and a guy walks into the cockpit giving it "yeeeah I've flown loads of planes, you just need to lift the clutch slowly and make sure to indicate at a roundabout", you wouldn't just fucking sit there and think "yeah, this should be fine. This'll be a nice flight".

You'd be making sure you're off that plane and letting people know it isn't safe to be flown by the incompetent idiot in the cockpit.

Yet David "I CLEARLY don't know a flying fuck about anything" Davis has been in the brexit cockpit talking about how hes going to do all this impossible shit that the brexit plane physically can't or shouldn't do if you don't want to crash and burn to death, and an absolute minimum of 50% of the country just sat there for two years on the runway thinking "why isn't the aeroplane flying yet? Maybe David Davis forgot to release the handbrake? He's probably released the clutch too fast and stalled the aeroplane hasn't he? I knew he didn't know what he was on about!".

That asshole Farage was on his LBC radio show not too long ago having a UK exporter describe how crashing out of the customs union in a no deal Brexit would screw a lot of smaller businesses and the pricks suggestion was to "stop exporting food" in order to deal with customs checks that will have a dramatic effect of productivity and ability to deliver good with the speed that having no checks at the border allows. THIS is the fucking guy who inspired the nation to fuck itself over with the grass is greener, pot of Rainbow gold, unicorn breeding fairy tales.

Jesus.

All because some conservatives wanted to play fast nd loose with the country's future to win their intra party feuds and Cameron trusted that the populace were able to ingest facts instead of religious feelings of "belief" that you really can stop paying your Netflix subscription and still view shows on Netflix as a non member if you just really really believe that you can.


The entire thing is a mess that should never have happened, at least not the way that it did.


There should have been years of debates, of analysis, of scenario building.

Not a few months, a pamphlet and a not even half hearted remain campaign while "Phone Farage" had been running on LBC on Ferraris prime time slot for God knows how long before the referendum and "MIGRANT CRISIS MIGRANT CRISIS MIGRANT CRISIS MIGRANT CRISIS" was the only thing on the news......right up until the referendum.......then disappeared completely almost as soon as we voted to leave.....funny that.


I mean, I can understand leaving the EU after years of high engagement discussion from every angle and side, with people leading the charge with actual tangible plans that aren't pie in the sky, borderline religion level belief based wank.

But "brexit", this thing happening now?

Fuck this crap.


/spewing of brain
 
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#34
Or you could just call me a twat. That works too.
Nah, you are fine.
If it was 2015 and I had to vote, I probably also would have voted "LEAVE" to be honest, simply because of Merkel's refugee bullshit. Now that we got Salvini, Kurz etc. in power I might be a little torn, because it looks like EU is finally having some sense.

As a German, I honestly don't by these Brexit horror scenarios either way.
I don't believe that the UK will turn into a shithole because of it, also don't believe the EU will fall apart. Sucks to not have the UK around, but life will go on.

Not a HUGE fan of the EU tho.
As far as I can tell, the EU hasn't done us regular Germans much good. Or better yet, hasn't been as good for us as the media always proclaims.
Even tho the national export and economic numbers look great, not a lot of this money ends up in average German pockets.
I mean, it's great that BMW makes a couple of billions more per year, but wages aren't increasing as fast as rents, taxes and other shit.

I guess only time will tell if your vote has been the right or wrong one.
 
Likes: Yakuzakazuya
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#36
Aren't the doom and gloomers exaggerating a bit though? The British pound is the 4th largest traded currency in the world. It's not going to disappear overnight, there's too many countries that rely on trade from the U.K.
That means nothing to the average worker.

Just the fact that the GBP collapsed after only the vote, and never recovered, isn't a good sign for things to come IF we do end up leaving completely. A weak GBP is good for foreign investors, not for the natives....
 
Jul 3, 2018
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#37
Aren't the doom and gloomers exaggerating a bit though? The British pound is the 4th largest traded currency in the world. It's not going to disappear overnight, there's too many countries that rely on trade from the U.K.
To be fair a low GBP to Euro/Dollar exchange rate will screw over the average UK consumer pretty badly.
In the long run though, a cheap currency opens up business opportunities.

Like always tho, it all depends:
Germany (for example) would be screwed if we would go back to the Deutsche Mark, because the exchange rate compared to the, let's say, Italian lira made our goods extremely expensive.
OTH the Greeks would likely do much much better if they had the Drachma back, because their goods would be cheap AF compared to the Euro or Dolalr.

Not really sure how things will play out in the UK but me and some friends of mine have bought quite a few products on amazon.co.uk because the 1 GBP is like 1,10€ now (used to be 1,50€ or more)
 
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#41
Not a HUGE fan of the EU tho.
As far as I can tell, the EU hasn't done us regular Germans much good. Or better yet, hasn't been as good for us as the media always proclaims.
Even tho the national export and economic numbers look great, not a lot of this money ends up in average German pockets.
I mean, it's great that BMW makes a couple of billions more per year, but wages aren't increasing as fast as rents, taxes and other shit.
What's the counterfactual, though? In today's world, with all these small countries competing with each other, the economy would be much worser.
 
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#43
Brexit will have a huge impact on business between EU and UK. Thats Im absolutley sure.
It's entirely dependant on the nature of tariffs and regulations.
The government is already doing positive business work that it wouldn't be able to do within the EU, for instance VAT will now be collected retrospectively for all imports, not just EU nations as before.

Whatever the outcome, there will be a short term loss, but I am not going to claim it's Armageddon to grow (yes grow) 0.8% GDP per annum less over a 15 year period. A vibrant tax and regulation framework could easily offset that.

I know the remain echo chamber has convinced themselves that leaving the EU will be the walking dead writ large, but a bit of perspective would do them and their blood pressure some good.
 
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#44
What the fuck kind of logic is that? Competition always promotes growth and prosperity...
Always is a strong word in IR and Ecinimica.

Anyway, in the global scenario, where trade deals and every kind of agreement (about safety, defense, consumer protection, etc.) are signed with countries like China and the US, smaller countries don’t have much bargaining power. Within Europe itself, the same would occur. The value of trade with n-th bilateral agreements would be much lower as well as the rate and spillover of innovation.
 

sahlberg

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Oct 27, 2017
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#45
I don't think Brexit is a left/right issue in the UK.
A lot of the left wants to leave, as does a lot of the right.

Right or left, it is much more about wanting to own your own destiny and not be a vassal state of someone else.
That transgresses across the left/right scale.
 
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#46
I don't think Brexit is a left/right issue in the UK.
A lot of the left wants to leave, as does a lot of the right.
It is more rural versus cities with the caveat that rural will suffer more and people living in cities could relocate more easily. Fishermen, for example, will be hit pretty hard because the most caught fish in UK doesn’t have a high domestic demand. New trade deals will inevitably raise the cost of trade and the internal market will be flooded by cheap fish destroying fishermen’s profits.
 
Aug 22, 2018
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#47
I'd say the media has presented brexit from the right-wing perspective (which is probably to be expected when all bar the Guardian [and presumably still the Mirror?] are right-wing), giving the impression of Brexit as a right wing thing, especially with the psychodrama playing out in the Tory party.
 
Dec 13, 2016
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#48
Anyway, in the global scenario, where trade deals and every kind of agreement (about safety, defense, consumer protection, etc.) are signed with countries like China and the US, smaller countries don’t have much bargaining power.
That's not true at all. You have to have value to have bargaining power, being small alone isn't enough to be dismissed...
 
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#49
In terms of economic power we're far from small. Militarily we're diminished vs what we once were but still useful, and our intelligence capabilities are among the best, giving us additional soft power (through our ability to help out other countries using those services).
 
Sep 2, 2018
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#50
That's not true at all. You have to have value to have bargaining power, being small alone isn't enough to be dismissed...
It is true and is happening a lot of time. Just look at the small countries in the Pacific Ocean or even countries in South America. This is how IR works and that's why it is important to act on a larger scale.