Brexit

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A leader who, rather than representing the will of their people to the best of their ability, instead actively operates against said will and in their own interests [and in the interests of foreign powers], is not a leader but a traitor.
Hyperbole aside, I get that there are indications May basically just took the Brussels/German proposal as the start and end point of negotiations.

But my question is why isn't Boris Johnson the PM?

And just so you know I believe that Brexit is good, that national sovereignty is good and the smaller the political unit the more successful it is. I think hard Brexit is better than no Brexit. And maybe the EU is so stubborn that the only negotiating tactic is hard Brexit, then come back later for a trade deal. But that doesn't excuse the political leadership from shirking their responsibilities.
 
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Hyperbole aside, I get that there are indications May basically just took the Brussels/German proposal as the start and end point of negotiations.

But my question is why isn't Boris Johnson the PM?

And just so you know I believe that Brexit is good, that national sovereignty is good and the smaller the political unit the more successful it is. I think hard Brexit is better than no Brexit. And maybe the EU is so stubborn that the only negotiating tactic is hard Brexit, then come back later for a trade deal. But that doesn't excuse the political leadership from shirking their responsibilities.
It sounds like we agree on most things, then, from a mile up. I would argue the reason for everything we've seen so far with Brexit [and yellowvest protests in France, etc] is because there are a lot of globalists in power and they are fighting tooth and nail to retain power which is, for various reasons, slipping away from them. May, and those that let her take the lead role, are interested in sabotaging Brexit, or at least delaying it long enough that they can fearmonger the public into a new referendum.

That is to say, I don't view it as two groups that are truly looking out for the best of the UK. I think at the top level its British nationalists [for lack of a better descriptor] looking out for the best of the UK vs. Globalists that put globalism before Britain, as I think May made abundantly clear by shockingly absurd negotiations.

So from that perspective, I think hard Brexit is the best option on the table unless those truly for Brexit can wrangle power away from the globalists. Can that happen? Personally, I think it's more likely the globalists will succeed in putting it off long enough that they destroy Brexit altogether. I just don't think 'better negotiations' is feasible at this point. So... Brexit it is. It's the last stand. I think we'll see more countries follow.
 

sahlberg

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No deal means a hard border in Ireland which will lead to terror attacks. I doubt anybody wants that.
Why would it mean that?
England and Ireland can just decide to do nothing. I.e. not build any border checkpoints, not enforcing the border etc.
Just leave it as is. That is a possibility. Will it happen? Uncertain it is definitely a possibility.
 
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Why would it mean that?
England and Ireland can just decide to do nothing. I.e. not build any border checkpoints, not enforcing the border etc.
Just leave it as is. That is a possibility. Will it happen? Uncertain it is definitely a possibility.
It's not that simple. Ireland is part of the EU and if the UK leaves then there will have to be customs on the Ireland/Northern Ireland border to check all goods, and people coming from the UK as is the case with any other non-EU country.
 
Likes: Bleys
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Geez. And I thought those few months of NAFTA deal articles Canada was hashing out with a stubborn Trump were bad. Turned out it was a non-factor.

Here's to three cheers trade and travel between the US and Canada is smooth. When the biggest issues are politicians blabbing about Dairy and Lumber rates, who cares in the grand scheme of things.
 
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No deal means a hard border in Ireland which will lead to terror attacks. I doubt anybody wants that.
Tbh I'm not convinced we'd return to the old days of the IRA. As such people have been doing a lot more cross-border stuff and the partition is not necessarily the huge obstacle it was in the 80s - having lived outside the EU and seen how things work on border towns, business still gets done, people still cross back and forth every day to get to work or to do some shopping etc. People in the UK have mostly not had that experience and politicians are exploiting that to scare them into thinking that a border will send us back to the dark ages. This is not the case.
 
May 4, 2005
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Tbh I'm not convinced we'd return to the old days of the IRA. As such people have been doing a lot more cross-border stuff and the partition is not necessarily the huge obstacle it was in the 80s - having lived outside the EU and seen how things work on border towns, business still gets done, people still cross back and forth every day to get to work or to do some shopping etc. People in the UK have mostly not had that experience and politicians are exploiting that to scare them into thinking that a border will send us back to the dark ages. This is not the case.
The no deal situation would be a pretty exceptionally big split between Ireland and GB though. It is not comparable to e.g. the situation with most neighbours of the EU, because they still have strong alliances (cf. above discussions about the different layers of proximity to the EU).
 
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The no deal situation would be a pretty exceptionally big split between Ireland and GB though. It is not comparable to e.g. the situation with most neighbours of the EU, because they still have strong alliances (cf. above discussions about the different layers of proximity to the EU).
And you'll note I wasn't comparing to neighbours of the EU. I worked in Asia. To give an example, the border regions of Thailand often have both Thai and the language of the neighbouring country spoken for instance, and they still get shit done despite the border.
 
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And you'll note I wasn't comparing to neighbours of the EU. I worked in Asia. To give an example, the border regions of Thailand often have both Thai and the language of the neighbouring country spoken for instance, and they still get shit done despite the border.
I do not know the situation in Thailand, but it is pretty uncommon for countries with common borders to be as stricly separated as the UK and EU would be after a hard brexit. Whether this leads to any violence is a different question, of course.
 
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i_am_ben

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Wasn't the UK (read: UK politicians at the time) one of the cheerleaders for the rapid Eastern expansion or does my memory betray me?

The UK was the chief proponent of the eastward expansion as a way to dilute the political ambitions of the EU through bringing in different cultures and groups. The UK wanted the EU to be chiefly a trading block.
 
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I do not know the situation in Thailand, but it is pretty uncommon for countries with common borders to be as stricly separated as the UK and EU would be after a hard brexit. Whether this leads to any violence is a different question, of course.
What makes you think the border would be strictly separated any more than in any other country? As far as I can tell the EU has been pretty poor at border control up til now, I'd be surprised if that suddenly changed.
 
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What makes you think the border would be strictly separated any more than in any other country? As far as I can tell the EU has been pretty poor at border control up til now, I'd be surprised if that suddenly changed.
Having no agreements about trade, moving between states and such will do that for you. Well, maybe there won't be strict control, but the legal separation would be tremendous and the legal hurdles for everyday life would be as well. Anyway, let's wait and see what happens, I still do not thinl hard brexit is that likely of an outcome.
 
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Makariel

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What makes you think the border would be strictly separated any more than in any other country?
I still remember the border at the town where my father grew up before the EU came along: there were traffic jams for hours every day. Every car was checked for contraband. Every day the radio would report just how many hours you need to wait at which border, no simple "hopping across the border" as you describe above. Today the borders are simply not noticeable, people and goods travel freely, it made a huge difference. Arguably that was before we had systems that can quickly check peoples passports, but the UK is currently opting out on any cross-border collaboration, so we would need to start from scratch.

And in Thailand you also have different situations at different borders, if you're on the border to Malaysia or Myanmar/Burma makes a difference, since there are different agreements in place. Agreements the UK and EU currently don't have, since the no-deal Brexit is by definition leaving without any agreement.

edit: some views from the side of the EU negotiators:

 
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sahlberg

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I do not know the situation in Thailand, but it is pretty uncommon for countries with common borders to be as stricly separated as the UK and EU would be after a hard brexit. Whether this leads to any violence is a different question, of course.
How hard the border will be is 100% up to England and Ireland to decide.
It can either be how the border has always been between far north Sweden and far north Finland. Since long before EU even existed, being able to speak one of the local languages would be enough to wave you through if you happened to be one of the very rare random stops on the road.

Imagine, two countries that were not part of EU having an open border. Unbelivable.

Or it could be like Checkpoint Charlie.

England and Ireland decides how it will be. EU can go fuck themself.
 
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Makariel

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How hard the border will be is 100% up to England and Ireland to decide.
Hah if it were that simple, the whole Ireland border issue would not be an issue. This is now an EU border, in which the EU has some say in. Unless Ireland wishes to leave the EU as well of course, in which case you'd be right, Ireland and the UK could just figure something out between them. And it's the UK and Ireland, not just England, the UK also consists of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Looks like we're on the tail end of the wrong choice made by biggots.
Ah, another drive-by-post by someone with no understanding of the complexity of the issue, we didn't have enough of those yet.
 
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How hard the border will be is 100% up to England and Ireland to decide.
It can either be how the border has always been between far north Sweden and far north Finland. Since long before EU even existed, being able to speak one of the local languages would be enough to wave you through if you happened to be one of the very rare random stops on the road.

Imagine, two countries that were not part of EU having an open border. Unbelivable.

Or it could be like Checkpoint Charlie.

England and Ireland decides how it will be. EU can go fuck themself.
It is certainly true that Ireland's voice will be very important here, but it is also an outer border of EU, so as long as Ireland remains in the EU, it is not true that the EU has no part in that. In fact, Ireland's weight in discussing the border situation with UK will profit from being backed by a pretty large number of states. Travel of goods and people between borders are not trivial matters to solve though, especially with the requirements UK has set.

In fact, I am very glad that the EU for once did prove solidarity properly with its smaller member states (after how atrociously the Greece situation was handled) in the case of Ireland. Removing the backstop would probably have solved the issues of the brexit deal, but it would have put Ireland in peril. If Ireland desired the EU to go fuck themselves and just keep the border open to UK nevertheless, then they could have just asked the EU about that. But, alas, they were very strong proponents of the backstop and even allegedly were a bit unhappy of the last compromises made with May.

EDIT: And by the way, I remember the border situation between Austria and Germany before free movement was fully established from my childhood. Even though Germany and Austria were very close already (and in fact both part of the EU), it was still annoying to cross the border. Free movement within the EU (Schengen) is one of the major achievements of the EU in my view.
 
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sahlberg

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Hah if it were that simple, the whole Ireland border issue would not be an issue. This is now an EU border, in which the EU has some say in. Unless Ireland wishes to leave the EU as well of course, in which case you'd be right, Ireland and the UK could just figure something out between them. And it's the UK and Ireland, not just England, the UK also consists of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
This is just silly speculation that will not happen, but lets entertain the idea that Ireland and UK are just going to not build or enforce any border.
What exactly can the EU do? They will send EU troops to liberate Ireland and build a customs border wall with customs checkpoints?
Maybe talk to Trump and make a joint border wall purchase. Volume discount?

EDITS: to push the point. A whole set of countries in mostly Eastern Europe seems to be able to tell EU to shove their directives about migration where the sun does not shine and
nothing at all has happened to them. Except for maybe some harsh words in the EU Parlament.
Honestly, I don't think if this happened there would be anything more than some meaningless comments and critique from the EU in some memo but nothing material will happen.
 
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This is just silly speculation that will not happen, but lets entertain the idea that Ireland and UK are just going to not build or enforce any border.
What exactly can the EU do? They will send EU troops to liberate Ireland and build a customs border wall with customs checkpoints?
Maybe talk to Trump and make a joint border wall purchase. Volume discount?

EDITS: to push the point. A whole set of countries in mostly Eastern Europe seems to be able to tell EU to shove their directives about migration where the sun does not shine and
nothing at all has happened to them. Except for maybe some harsh words in the EU Parlament.
Honestly, I don't think if this happened there would be anything more than some meaningless comments and critique from the EU in some memo but nothing material will happen.
So why was Ireland so adamant that the backstop is included? Migration does not touch on the economical interests of the EU much, which are also at the core of the EU (because it originally only was an economical union). This is a very different thing.
 

sahlberg

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So why was Ireland so adamant that the backstop is included? Migration does not touch on the economical interests of the EU much, which are also at the core of the EU (because it originally only was an economical union). This is a very different thing.
I have no idea. I could speculate?

While the option of a deal is on the table, a negotiated deal that there will be no border is better than a prisoners dilemma that neither you nor the opponent will suddenly build a customs wall?
From Irelands perspective, a deal that puts in writing there will be no wall would likely be priority number one, since their economy will be destroyed and they will face very hard hardship if there is a customs border to the UK.
If there is no deal, Irelands economy will be destroyed for a long time and hardship will follow.

If the deal is no longer on the table, I would expect them to switch to the second best alternative.
But you don't switch to plan B while plan A is still on the table.


That is just me. A rational person.
 
May 4, 2005
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While the option of a deal is on the table, a negotiated deal that there will be no border is better than a prisoners dilemma that neither you nor the opponent will suddenly build a customs wall?
From Irelands perspective, a deal that puts in writing there will be no wall would likely be priority number one, since their economy will be destroyed and they will face very hard hardship if there is a customs border to the UK.
If there is no deal, Irelands economy will be destroyed for a long time and hardship will follow.
If your plan B was actually a plan B, then it would have been rational of Ireland to then say "ok, limit the backstop to N years" to ensure that the can say "fuck the EU", (because rational sahlberg said, that is the rational thing to do and totally a viable option for Ireland) and negotiate on their own with the UK on the Ireland-UK border without being forced into an unpleasent situation in half a month already.
 
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Makariel

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This is just silly speculation that will not happen, but lets entertain the idea that Ireland and UK are just going to not build or enforce any border.
What exactly can the EU do? They will send EU troops to liberate Ireland and build a customs border wall with customs checkpoints?
How would I know? I don't even know what will happen to me after Brexit, let alone the country of Ireland. Maybe I get deported in a purple Brexit van, since the glorious patriots that are celebrated above can finally enforce the notion that anyone born on foreign soil needs to be thrown out? I'm not exactly forging long-term plans at the moment, a number of my friends already left the UK.

In terms of movement of people, goods and services across the border they will need to do something, since there will be checks necessary regarding visa (what would otherwise stop someone who wants to come into the UK illegally to travel to Ireland on a tourist visa and just walk across?), and for goods tariffs and import duty etc. It was also the UK that designed the now famous "backstop" (see the above video around the 5 minute mark), now the UK deems the backstop unacceptable. I don't know what they want really.
 

sahlberg

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If your plan B was actually a plan B, then it would have been rational of Ireland to then say "ok, limit the backstop to N years" to ensure that the can say "fuck the EU", (because rational sahlberg said, that is the rational thing to do and totally a viable option for Ireland) and negotiate on their own with the UK on the Ireland-UK border without being forced into an unpleasent situation in half a month already.
Why would your starting position in a negotiation be below the optimum you would want?
That makes no sense. Well well.

I am taking a leave from this now since I don't think we can agree on anything.
 
May 4, 2005
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Why would your starting position in a negotiation be below the optimum you would want?
That makes no sense. Well well.
If you see that plan A is falling apart and has next to no chance of succeeding and you have the chance to have a much more convenient path towards plan B and much more freedom to negotiate accordingly, then it would be pretty stupid to cling to a plan that you already is poised to fail.
 

sahlberg

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If you see that plan A is falling apart and has next to no chance of succeeding and you have the chance to have a much more convenient path towards plan B and much more freedom to negotiate accordingly, then it would be pretty stupid to cling to a plan that you already is poised to fail.
I hope for negotiations to fall apart. It would mean no EU tariffs to UK and that we can ship quality meat and produce for UK from Australia far cheaper than the Irish can.
Better and cheaper food for UK and more jobs in AG created in AUS. It is a win-win situation.

Have no illusion. With no protective tariff barrier, we will eat Irelands AG industry for lunch. Possibly we have to share it with Argentina and Brazil but Ireland will be seriously fucked for a long time.


If there is going to be custom tariffs between Ireland and the UK and they decide to enforce border control Ireland will be in a tough spot.
 
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I hope for negotiations to fall apart. It would mean no EU tariffs to UK and that we can ship quality meat and produce for UK from Australia far cheaper than the Irish can.
Better and cheaper food for UK and more jobs in AG created in AUS. It is a win-win situation.

Have no illusion. With no protective tariff barrier, we will eat Irelands AG industry for lunch. Possibly we have to share it with Argentina and Brazil but Ireland will be seriously fucked for a long time.
Well, that makes sense if you were responsible for the Irish position on that, but I do not see the rationality in the Irish behaviour under the assumption that your "fuck the EU" kind of dealing with the border situation was on the table and their plan B.
 

sahlberg

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Well, that makes sense if you were responsible for the Irish position on that, but I do not see the rationality in the Irish behaviour under the assumption that your "fuck the EU" kind of dealing with the border situation was on the table and their plan B.
OK. final response. My "fuck the EU" should be seen in light of :
For Ireland, what is good for Ireland comes well before what is good for the EU. At least I hope that is the case.
When it comes down to hard reality. Any decision that Ireland makes should be for whatever is best for the Irish republic and people.
If that does not align with greater EU desires, or France, then they should just tell them "fuck you EU. we care for Irish people first."
 

Makariel

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This just came up, which affects some of the discussions above: the UK is not raising import taxes in case of a no-deal Brexit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47551266

The new tariff regime would mark a shift in favour of products from non-EU countries.

It would mean 82% of imports from the EU would be tariff-free, down from 100% now.

92% percent of imports from the rest of the world would pay no border duty, up from 56%.
This is surely only a temporary measure and I would assume that some tariffs would come again later, but it's a reasonable move that would make a number of non-EU products cheaper/more competitive. Also announced: no tarrif from UK side on goods coming from Ireland to Northern Ireland. However, goods going to the rest of the UK could face tarrifs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47551121
 

sahlberg

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This just came up, which affects some of the discussions above: the UK is not raising import taxes in case of a no-deal Brexit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47551266


This is surely only a temporary measure and I would assume that some tariffs would come again later, but it's a reasonable move that would make a number of non-EU products cheaper/more competitive. Also announced: no tarrif from UK side on goods coming from Ireland to Northern Ireland. However, goods going to the rest of the UK could face tarrifs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47551121
Very nice. With no tariffs anymore for most of our AG products and produce our question now from Australia/Argentina/Brazil is :
HOW much do you want to buy and how soon should we start shipping! The ships are ready, sitting at the dock waiting.
You want cheaper and higher quality food, don't you?

Our PM in Queensland might declare a new state holiday tomorrow to celebrate.
 
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Also announced: no tarrif from UK side on goods coming from Ireland to Northern Ireland. However, goods going to the rest of the UK could face tarrifs.
How does that work? If I want to send something from Germany to London, I can either send it directly and pay tarrifs, or have a partner in NI and one in Ireland, sending first to Ireland, then NI, then London? That is really strange.
 
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How does that work? If I want to send something from Germany to London, I can either send it directly and pay tarrifs, or have a partner in NI and one in Ireland, sending first to Ireland, then NI, then London? That is really strange.
It's a business opportunity for someone, for sure. Those kind of things always exist around borders.
 

sahlberg

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How does that work? If I want to send something from Germany to London, I can either send it directly and pay tarrifs, or have a partner in NI and one in Ireland, sending first to Ireland, then NI, then London? That is really strange.
Business always finds a way.

Are you old enough to remember the mad-cow disease 10-20 years ago when British meats were banned from export for years?
Turned out if you shipped live cows to abattoirs in the baltic states then the meat was no longer "British" but "Estonian"
and no longer embargoed.

For a while Estonia was one of the largest beef exporters in europe. Even though they don't really have much of a beef industry.

Business will find a way. Ireland is truly fucked now if this comes into place.
 
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Business always finds a way.

Are you old enough to remember the mad-cow disease 10-20 years ago when British meats were banned from export for years?
Turned out if you shipped live cows to abattoirs in the baltic states then the meat was no longer "British" but "Estonian"
and no longer embargoed.
Yes I do. I also remember that, at least in Germany, that was quickly shot down by full disclosure of the history of the meat, including where the anaimal was born, where it was raised, where it lived last, where it was slaughtered. All of a sudden, all outlets for meat had large banners for all meat to indicate the different stations in its life, with additional leaflets for more detailled information.
 

sahlberg

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How does that work? If I want to send something from Germany to London, I can either send it directly and pay tarrifs, or have a partner in NI and one in Ireland, sending first to Ireland, then NI, then London? That is really strange.
Lets see if this actually happens, but if history is a guide what is likely to happen is that there will be business in NI
with a PO BOX you can ship to and for a small fee have it re-shipped to the UK, and also in the opposite direction.

I dont know if you are old enough to remember when there were an electronics toll/tariff between France and Germany.
A single person could carry a VCR toll free across the border. But not more.

This actually happened!
Very soon you had huge trailer parkinglots spanning the border.
18Wheeler from the factory in germany filled with tens of thousands of brand new VCR in boxes backs up to within a meter of the border.
On the French side, an empty 18wheeler backs up to within 1m of their border.
Then the two truck drivers and all the local causal workers would shift the VCRs from one truck to the other truck, 2m away. ONE TAX FREE/TOLL FREE BOX AT A TIME.
It was such big business they built these parks where hundreds of trucks could do this in parallell at a time at each border crossing.


Business will find a way.

Anyway this is pointless. Business always finds a way.
Regardless, if these things do come true, it will be a HUGE boost for our beef and produce exports in AU. Ireland will suddenly face very hard competition on quality and price pf product.
The winners will be people in the UK getting higher quality food cheaper and producers in AU, Brazil, Argentina... and once again Ireland are on the losing side.
I think the Irish might actually be cursed. God bless them though.
 
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And you'll note I wasn't comparing to neighbours of the EU. I worked in Asia. To give an example, the border regions of Thailand often have both Thai and the language of the neighbouring country spoken for instance, and they still get shit done despite the border.
Are you actually using Thailand to make you point about the EU? What happens in a third world country is completely different and irrelevant to the EU. The EU is heavily regulated and all goods and persons entering the EU zone will be checked, you can't just bribe some border patrol guards to "get business done".

Also the "New IRA" has already sent out mail bombs recently due to the fact that a hard border could become a reality. So if it did become a reality things would surely escalate.

Best case scenario now is no Brexit. Most people that voted for brexit did so solely based on immigration and didn't take all of the other stuff into account. I personally hate the islamic mass migration to the west but Brexit was never going to solve that problem. Anyways if you want to fix a problem it's better to do it from within. I know it's not easy going up against the pro-migration Eurocrats in Brussels, but EU countries that have woken up like Italy and Hungary are successfully doing it, so there's some hope.
 

sahlberg

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If you guys in the UK want good prices on food the US is always looking for another market. I'd support a tarrif-free relationship treaty getting rammed through the Senate on day 1.
Screw you 'muricans. We Australians have this all covered. We can ship all the food they want at good prices too. Don't intervene, this is our win.

(joke, /s welcome to join us in fair competition for customers. Let the best country (==Australia) win. :))
 
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Screw you 'muricans. We Australians have this all covered. We can ship all the food they want at good prices too. Don't intervene, this is our win.

(joke, /s welcome to join us in fair competition for customers. Let the best country (==Australia) win. :))
If anybody wanted Emu meat I'd agree, but you boys already tried that once.
 

sahlberg

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sahlberg

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Just try a burger once, and you will discover perfection.
I eat a burger with extra bacon every day.
Well, we call it a "works burger" here.

Cow, lamb and Pig. 4 legs. OK to eat.
Insects >>4 legs. NOT OK.
Two leg critters, birds humans/ ... NOT OK
No legs. i.e fish that just floats in the sewer: NOT OK.

Exceptions:
goats while they technically have 4 legs they are actually insects and thus NOT OK to eat.

Any other question?
 
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That is not meat. It is a boundary I won't cross.

It has to have four legs or else you can not eat it. It would be a sin.

Just another example of how depraved the 'muricans are. Eating two legged creatures.
Jesus Christ, God have mercy on your soul.
You seem to be forgetting the glory of chicken. Also wash your mouth out, goat is delicious in a curry.
 
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Makariel

Gold Member
Jan 14, 2018
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I join the chicken club, but considering the lack of higher cognitive functions of chickens I consider them a walking vegetable rather than meat.
 

Baruch.S

Neo Member
Oct 31, 2018
13
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OK. final response. My "fuck the EU" should be seen in light of :
For Ireland, what is good for Ireland comes well before what is good for the EU. At least I hope that is the case.
When it comes down to hard reality. Any decision that Ireland makes should be for whatever is best for the Irish republic and people.
If that does not align with greater EU desires, or France, then they should just tell them "fuck you EU. we care for Irish people first."
Just to say that the way you speak in hyperbole and absolute is really annoying, despite asking yoshi if he's ''old enough to remember'' I dont think you're very old either, or you dont come off as such. Ireland is NOT fucked, nor is the UK or EU and no Australian ships are ready to ship meat.

I just want you to understand that real life is not like videogame and things that may appear simple to you (like the Brexit, which is absolutely not, but you're probably young) are most of the time way more complicated, and takes time. The Brexit may set in motion new economics trend of which we'll see the real repercussions in a a generation maybe, but Ireland, the UK and the rest of the EU are highly developed economies, they are not fucked, not failling either, they'll be just fine. They might not enjoy past growth in the future, but that is a byproduct of globalization.


I just want you to relax boy, e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g will be fine and your mommy will still love you tomorrow 👩‍👦.