• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Coronavirus Global Pandemic |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Dec 3, 2013
39,877
71,692
1,200
So, I noticed I had a dry cough the past couple days. maybe like 1-3 coughs per day so far....

should i just keep an eye on things for now? I think you can only get tested if you have a drs note in Georgia
Keep an eye on it, but it could more than likely be the pollen here in the south. The Southern Oaks have been brutal this year I’ve noticed for a lot of people.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Tesseract

Breakage

Member
Mar 3, 2014
8,159
7,254
670
Looks as if police powers are gonna be ramped up in England:

England: police to get power to use force to impose coronavirus lockdown
Proposals would allow use of ‘reasonable force’ if people refuse to go home

 

TheSadRanger

Member
Sep 5, 2013
9,569
4,950
790
Mckinney,TX
Keep an eye on it, but it could more than likely be the pollen here in the south. The Southern Oaks have been brutal this year I’ve noticed for a lot of people.
What's your over/under for deaths in the U.S by the end of the year?

If 50% of the country gets infected then I say probably 15 million dead in the U.S. That's a fairly conservative estimate given precautions were taken late.
 

Darkmakaimura

Member
Dec 12, 2008
14,119
4,364
1,430
Looks as if police powers are gonna be ramped up in England:

England: police to get power to use force to impose coronavirus lockdown
Proposals would allow use of ‘reasonable force’ if people refuse to go home

Waiting for people here saying "yeah but how are they going to enforce this. There is not enough cops to...."
 
What's your over/under for deaths in the U.S by the end of the year?

If 50% of the country gets infected then I say probably 15 million dead in the U.S. That's a fairly conservative estimate given precautions were taken late.
Right now the rough math is a 1.4% CFR for the US (1006 dead, 67,825 cases). NY is testing out the wazoo, but a lot of other places are not yet.

Something like 29% of the US population is over 55. 16% over 65.

So there are ~96 million people over 55.
So there are ~53 million people over 65.

If we managed to do a straight 50% of everyone infected evenly (unlikely, but let's play with that).

48 million infected over 55.
26.5 million infected over 65.

3013 deaths over 50 in Italy (data based off 3/19, which is old, but whatever), off of 26759 cases, which is an 11% CFR. Over 60 is 2930/19925 = 14.7% CFR.

Using those (very) rough figures from Italy, we'd arrive at something like:

5.3 million dead over 55. 3.9 million dead over 65.

Younger than 50 would be something like 117,000,000, and an estimated 1% CFR for them (likely less in all actuality) would be 1.2 million dead.

So based on rough math, IF 50% of the population gets it, we're looking at somewhere around 6.5 million dead on Italy numbers.
 
  • Thoughtful
Reactions: Ma-Yuan

gamerMan

Member
Jun 10, 2014
1,491
492
495
toybuzz.org
What's your over/under for deaths in the U.S by the end of the year?

If 50% of the country gets infected then I say probably 15 million dead in the U.S. That's a fairly conservative estimate given precautions were taken late.
The death rate globally is about 4.5%, which is roughly equivalent to the Spanish Flu. That's insanely high. In the United States it is 1.48%. It would be less than 1% if the hospitals don't run out of room. If they do, it could reach 4.5%.

If herd immunity is around 60% of population, the most we could have infected is 250 million people.

If about 1% of those die that is 2.5 million people on the high end. Fauci said the mortality rate is 10 times that of the flu so on the low end, I'm predicting 10X the number of people that died from the flu, which is around 300,000.
 
Last edited:

DragoonKain

Member
Nov 13, 2013
5,391
9,273
1,015
A friend of mine is super paranoid and has been freaking out about this. Like he opens his mail in a hazmat suit basically. He bought end of days gear when the Ebola outbreak happened years back and it never even hit the US. Well anyway, my city "only" has like 400 reported cases, and I found out tonight that his corner convenience store was closed today because an employee was tested positive for it. And he's been to that store recently. He's been doing everything possible to stay safe, when I tell him about it later he's gonna freak out, I was debating on whether or not I even should tell him because I know he'll have an anxiety attack, but he needs to know in case he displays symptoms. He's high risk as a smoker.
 

12Goblins

Lil’ Gobbie - 12Deflections
Mar 1, 2017
3,309
5,234
660
A friend of mine is super paranoid and has been freaking out about this. Like he opens his mail in a hazmat suit basically. He bought end of days gear when the Ebola outbreak happened years back and it never even hit the US. Well anyway, my city "only" has like 400 reported cases, and I found out tonight that his corner convenience store was closed today because an employee was tested positive for it. And he's been to that store recently. He's been doing everything possible to stay safe, when I tell him about it later he's gonna freak out, I was debating on whether or not I even should tell him because I know he'll have an anxiety attack, but he needs to know in case he displays symptoms. He's high risk as a smoker.
man, you'd think the way people are acting that once this is done we'll start to see people make huge lifestyle changes after this, stop smoking, exercising more, eating better, etc. NOPE
 

008

Member
Aug 7, 2019
492
381
290
about that time to turn it around guys, anytime now




468K cases

46K today
would really like to know the REAL China and Iran numbers.

maybe it doesn’t matter, this shit is spreading fast and killing
 

Come On Tars

Member
Oct 22, 2018
624
556
350
I am waging when this is all said and done this season. 1% death rate as more and more people recover and medications are used properly. 120k deaths global. A lot of these horrible projections are for 3 cycles of covid 19 with nothing done about it.
 

cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
20,581
39,722
1,160
If you just take Italy death per million its about 3 Million dead Americans.

We will see if USA gets to Italy level.
 

DragoonKain

Member
Nov 13, 2013
5,391
9,273
1,015
man, you'd think the way people are acting that once this is done we'll start to see people make huge lifestyle changes after this, stop smoking, exercising more, eating better, etc. NOPE
I don't think anything will change. We are a lazy culture that likes to settle into comforts and I don't even think we'll learn anything from this. People will be relieved it's gone and go back to being the same unprepared people who settle back into poor hygiene and lazy tendencies. And if the next one is worse, then we are SOL.
 

TheSadRanger

Member
Sep 5, 2013
9,569
4,950
790
Mckinney,TX
would really like to know the REAL China and Iran numbers.

maybe it doesn’t matter, this shit is spreading fast and killing
I agree with China but I don't think Iran is lying, their numbers are matching up with other countries. I don't think Iran has anything to gain from lying either unlike China.
 

cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
20,581
39,722
1,160
bet. Won't even be close.
Not saying it will be, just saying if you took that the situation will get that as bad as Italy in the US.

I don't think it will get that bad, but I do think there can be certain area's that will be hit hard. Either way a lot of people are going to die from this.

thanks China.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Come On Tars

gamerMan

Member
Jun 10, 2014
1,491
492
495
toybuzz.org
Mayday! The United States needs a national lockdown now. Shut it down! This thing doesn't care about boundaries. We needed only one fucking person on the other side of the Earth to infect the entire world. If you think this is not coming to your State you are totally delusional. Each State needed to be treated like its own country. Shutdown the borders. You can't have people traveling from State to State. People are going to leave New York and other infected areas and go into areas that aren't infected. Wake the fuck up!

I worry about Texas, Louisiana, Florida and Georgia. Most of all I worry about Mississippi. Our leaders are so damn stupid. Covid-19 is not kind to dumb assery. Most businesses are essential? This is a fucking disaster.
 
Last edited:

DragoonKain

Member
Nov 13, 2013
5,391
9,273
1,015
Mississippi is poor as shit, if they get a breakout they're absolutely fucked. But they're also a religious state so let god save them, I'm sure he'll do wonders for it.
 
Jan 11, 2019
11,329
39,343
1,245
Tokyo, Japan
Each State needed to be treated like its own country. Shutdown the borders. You can't have people traveling from State to State. People are going to leave New York and other infected areas and go into areas that aren't infected. Wake the fuck up!

I worry about Texas, Louisiana, Florida and Georgia. Most of all I worry about Mississippi. Our leaders are so damn stupid. Covid-19 is not kind to dumb assery. Most businesses are essential? This is a fucking disaster.
 
Jun 17, 2019
662
1,299
570
So this happened here in the UK and its really scary shit.



A 21-year-old woman with no underlying conditions has died after contracting coronavirus, according to her family.

Chloe Middleton, from High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire, died last week.

In a Facebook post, her aunt Emily Mistry said Ms Middleton "had passed away from Covid-19" and urged others to "do your bit" to stop the spread of the disease.

According to government figures, most patients who have died with coronavirus had pre-existing medical conditions.

There have been concerns that younger people were ignoring warnings over its spread, believing the contagion was only a danger to the elderly.

But in a series of Facebook posts, Ms Middleton's family urged the public to heed safety advice and take the virus "seriously".

Her mother, Diane Middleton, wrote: "Please think again.

"Speaking from a personal experience, this so-called virus has taken the life of my 21-year-old daughter."

Ms Mistry added: "My beautiful, kind-hearted 21 year old niece has passed away from Covid-19.

"She had no underlying health conditions."
QUOTE]

BBC News - Chloe Middleton: Coronavirus victim, 21, 'had no health issues'

And to add to this from another article:

'So far, the health message has been clear - the older you are, the more at risk you are from coronavirus. But the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned young people not to view themselves as "invincible".

Dr Rosena Allin-Khan, a Labour MP and A&E doctor, told the BBC the illness was "not simply limited to the elderly and those with underlying health conditions".

She was speaking the day after news an 18-year-old with an underlying health condition died of the virus in England. They are thought to be the youngest person with the virus to have died in the UK so far.

Dr Allin-Khan said she had treated previously "fit and well" patients in their 30s and 40s who were now in intensive care and "fighting for their lives".


BBC News - Coronavirus: What's young people's risk?

So what the fuck is going on that a girl in her early 20s with no underlying health conditions is dying and we have 30 year olds with the virus fighting for their life?!

Has this virus mutated or starting to where it's starting to kill the younger people?

Really scary.
 
  • Praise the Sun
Reactions: MiyazakiHatesKojima

Monsterkillah

Member
Aug 12, 2018
3,702
5,912
740
Mayday mayday 1032 death in USA now


Donald Trump announced April 15th every activity business school stores offices etc must resume back to normal

RIP more people gona die virus transmition will be unstopable

USA could overtake Italy numbers
 
Last edited:
  • Triggered
Reactions: MiyazakiHatesKojima

Roronoa Zoro

Member
Oct 17, 2016
1,759
1,227
500
Pittsburgh
Mayday! The United States needs a national lockdown now. Shut it down! This thing doesn't care about boundaries. We needed only one fucking person on the other side of the Earth to infect the entire world. If you think this is not coming to your State you are totally delusional. Each State needed to be treated like its own country. Shutdown the borders. You can't have people traveling from State to State. People are going to leave New York and other infected areas and go into areas that aren't infected. Wake the fuck up!

I worry about Texas, Louisiana, Florida and Georgia. Most of all I worry about Mississippi. Our leaders are so damn stupid. Covid-19 is not kind to dumb assery. Most businesses are essential? This is a fucking disaster.
We should shut down things that pose a high risk of infection. Landscapers and my job installing dog fences should be allowed to stay running as we operate outside and don't involve any gathering of people. We can be sanitary. Thats less people needing government checks and more people keeping their livelihood up. It should be based on your likelihood to spread and catch the disease not just how "essential" you are
 

Zefah

Gold Member
Jan 7, 2007
40,169
14,419
1,585
Donald Trump announced April 15th every activity business school stores offices etc must resume back to normal
I highly doubt he would do that (or that states would follow through) if things just keep getting worse up until that date.
 

Jonsoncao

Member
Dec 10, 2006
3,600
441
1,270
Irvine, CA
I agree with China but I don't think Iran is lying, their numbers are matching up with other countries. I don't think Iran has anything to gain from lying either unlike China.
The epi-center Wuhan went a 100% lockdown, shelter-in-place. You cannot even leave where you live. The government is using its massive surveillance system (CCTV everywhere like in the novel 1984) to track spreaders.

United States simply couldn't afford and didn't have the infrastructure to do that. Stupid people still partying around during spring break.
 

TheSadRanger

Member
Sep 5, 2013
9,569
4,950
790
Mckinney,TX
Mayday! The United States needs a national lockdown now. Shut it down! This thing doesn't care about boundaries. We needed only one fucking person on the other side of the Earth to infect the entire world. If you think this is not coming to your State you are totally delusional. Each State needed to be treated like its own country. Shutdown the borders. You can't have people traveling from State to State. People are going to leave New York and other infected areas and go into areas that aren't infected. Wake the fuck up!

I worry about Texas, Louisiana, Florida and Georgia. Most of all I worry about Mississippi. Our leaders are so damn stupid. Covid-19 is not kind to dumb assery. Most businesses are essential? This is a fucking disaster.
Texas is fucked, at least the DFW area is. No one is taking distancing seriously, there are way too many clumped together in grocery stores and it's impossible sometimes to keep a distance with small aisles. I see very few people wearing masks, I actually had a 2-pack of N95's and P-95s lying around in my garage and totally forgot about em.

I wear em to the grocery store and put em on before I leave and take em to the store. IDGAF if I get looks, I'd wear my pro-mask if I actually had some fucking filters for it. I've actually started using the oven trick though for my N95 to sanitize em so I can reuse them. I only take the mask off after I've sanitized my hands at home.
 
  • Like
Reactions: IAmLegendary

autoduelist

Gold Member
Aug 30, 2014
15,157
35,251
1,010
Well considering Americans take even less care of themselves then Italians with obesity and other health issues I don't think it's a preposterous claim if 50% of the population is infected.

I respect your stance though.
An Oxford study thinks exactly that:


Basically, the idea is that this is super infectious.... and has actually been among us for a bit and many people are actually already over it. That is, they suggest it might be a very good thing because it means our current estimates of serious cases and deaths are wildly overestimated - a massive amount of people that showed no symptoms are already on the other side of it.

If true, we are overreacting to fear based on bad math. Then other news suggests this is worse than ever. Depends on who you believe, aka, we still don't know enough.

Point is, is 50% of the pop is infected, you cant use the current death rate and do math. If that mant are infected, this may not be nearly as big of deal because it means the issue rates are low.
 
Last edited:
Jun 9, 2004
57,077
4,424
1,775
usa
haiti.kreyol.com
Mayday mayday 1032 death in USA now


Donald Trump announced April 15th every activity business school stores offices etc must resume back to normal

RIP more people gona die virus transmition will be unstopable

USA could overtake Italy numbers

Dude wishes this shit could get back to normal by April 15th at least get people back to work would look normal
USA case numbers would be at 250K alone by then, unless we can get them to trickle in at 100 per day like South Korea