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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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hariseldon

Unconfirmed Member
Amid all the negativity I just want to bring up one thing. Coronavirus has brought people together (ironically given social separation) in ways you wouldn't believe. In my neighbourhood I've talked to my neighbours more than ever, we're all doing bits for the NHS and the vulnerable, there's a local Michelin-starred restaurant putting together food packages for the homeless, people are making masks, scrubs, etc for NHS workers, there are food distribution programs, honestly I've never seen anything like it. It's amazing, I mean it really is that wartime spirit people talk about from world war 2. It might not be like that everywhere I guess but it is where I am and it's just such a wonderful thing.
 

ManaByte

Gold Member
Amid all the negativity I just want to bring up one thing. Coronavirus has brought people together (ironically given social separation) in ways you wouldn't believe. In my neighbourhood I've talked to my neighbours more than ever, we're all doing bits for the NHS and the vulnerable, there's a local Michelin-starred restaurant putting together food packages for the homeless, people are making masks, scrubs, etc for NHS workers, there are food distribution programs, honestly I've never seen anything like it. It's amazing, I mean it really is that wartime spirit people talk about from world war 2. It might not be like that everywhere I guess but it is where I am and it's just such a wonderful thing.

There was a three person murder suicide near here yesterday. This lockdown sure is bringing people together.
 
L4qbojT.jpg
 

008

Banned
“Hey guys, come see what I’m doing at home during the lockdown!” Social media has become my new least favorite kinda social media. No one cares about what you’re cooking, what dances you’re coordinating with your kids or what chores you did in your backyard.

i think I mentioned it in another thread. I simply stopped watching Snapchat & Instagram stories.

its f’n boring
 
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hariseldon

Unconfirmed Member
There was a three person murder suicide near here yesterday. This lockdown sure is bringing people together.

I guess people around you aren't as nice as those here. I'm in the UK, a fairly chilled bit of the UK (ie not in a big city), so maybe that's a factor. Nice to see you being so positive though.
 
Amid all the negativity I just want to bring up one thing. Coronavirus has brought people together (ironically given social separation) in ways you wouldn't believe. In my neighbourhood I've talked to my neighbours more than ever, we're all doing bits for the NHS and the vulnerable, there's a local Michelin-starred restaurant putting together food packages for the homeless, people are making masks, scrubs, etc for NHS workers, there are food distribution programs, honestly I've never seen anything like it. It's amazing, I mean it really is that wartime spirit people talk about from world war 2. It might not be like that everywhere I guess but it is where I am and it's just such a wonderful thing.

The best outcome from this Virus, as unfortunate as it is.

I wonder if other European Countries are doing the same in these unfortunate times and trying to help one another? I hope so.
 

Nymphae

Banned

Dr. Wittkowski received his PhD in computer science from the University of Stuttgart and his ScD (Habilitation) in Medical Biometry from the Eberhard-Karls-University Tuüingen, both Germany. He worked for 15 years with Klaus Dietz, a leading epidemiologist who coined the term “reproduction number”, on the Epidemiology of HIV before heading for 20 years the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University, New York. Dr. Wittkowski is currently the CEO of ASDERA LLC, a company discovering novel treatments for complex diseases from data of genome-wide association studies.

WITTKOWSKI: Of course! I don’t know where these numbers are coming from—they’re totally unrealistic. There are no indications that this flu is fundamentally different from every other flu. We know what happened in China, we know what happened in South Korea, we know what happened, or is happening, in Europe. There are no indications that anything is different from a regular flu. Maybe it’s a bit worse than other flus—could be?
[11:32.02] For a respiratory disease, the flu ends during springtime, that people spend more time outdoors because outdoors, the viruses cannot easily spread. That is a form of containment, spending more time outdoors.

WITTKOWSKI: We can see that in China, in Korea, the epidemic went down, and the epidemic did exactly what every other epidemic did, and it’s not that 400% of all people died. Maybe it’s 3 rather than 1%—maybe! But nothing is fundamentally different from the flus that we have seen before. Every couple of years there is a flu that is a bit worse than the other flus were, and it goes away in exactly the way the other flus went away, and this one behaves exactly the same way. The epidemic has ended in China, at least, in the provinces where it was. It has ended in South Korea. In Europe, it’s declining and will be ending anytime soon. Could be a bit longer than typically, because of the containment, which flattened and prolonged the epidemic. And so, if we really—that’s really good if we want to be affected by it as long as it gets. And in the United States we are doing the same thing. We are prolonging the epidemic to flatten the curve. But eventually, it will end.

Sadly this perspective isn't fear propaganda so no one will read it I guess, like the video I posted earlier with another perspective saying similar things. I had no idea Italy's hospitals operate at 95% capacity every winter.
 
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sinnergy

Member

Reopen ? Shits gonna take months , maybe even a year... it dropped because of all the measures, if you lossen shits gonna straight up. At least people here in The Netherlands are in accepting this.

There is a new now, and that will be with lots of measures until there is a vaccine.
 

ManaByte

Gold Member


Reopen ? Shits gonna take months , maybe even a year... it dropped because of all the measures, if you lossen shits gonna straight up. At least people here in The Netherlands are in accepting this.

There is a new now, and that will be with lots of measures until there is a vaccine.


Look, I know a socialist utopia believes that, but if you try to keep people locked up through this summer and you're going to have violent civil unrest. Try to keep them locked up a YEAR and you have Mad Max. Past a year you get to Thunderdome.
 

darkestdame

Banned
Holy fuckaloni, France with 1,417 new deaths and the US with 1,970, it might seem like everything is slowing down but it isnt, people are getting tired of just talking about it every single second. Those are all time highs, and surprisingly come after a few "good" days for both countries, as well as Spain got its numbers back up again.

I wonder if this is due to people being oversaturated staying at home.

Right, it's a terrible week so far, but when you hear 'light at the end of the tunnel' people start immediately wanting it to be over before we're even close

I mean

 

cryptoadam

Banned
CNN LOL.

We will probably have waves of this, but we can be smarter when it pops up. But CNN is basically scare stream media personified and want to do anything they can to undermine Trump and prop up their paymasters at the CCP.

And reading the comments in that tweet, sorry Americans but you guys are too daft. You have basically politicized the entire epidemic and it seems every and all decision needs to be made to spite Trump.
 
Sadly this perspective isn't fear propaganda so no one will read it I guess, like the video I posted earlier with another perspective saying similar things. I had no idea Italy's hospitals operate at 95% capacity every winter.


I believe most hospitals operate at almost capacity a lot of the time as it reduces overhead but they generally have emergency expansion plans on hand.

What I dont like about his responses is "we know what happened in China".....do we? CCP has been lying through their fuckin teeth this entire time. Its good to see a dissenting opinion I guess but its one expert v. a whole lot of other experts that say otherwise.
 
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Nymphae

Banned
I believe most hospitals operate at almost capacity a lot of the time as it reduces overhead but they generally have emergency expansion plans on hand.

What I dont like about his responses is "we know what happened in China".....do we? CCP has been lying through their fuckin teeth this entire time. Its good to see a dissenting opinion I guess but its one guy v. a whole lot of other experts that say otherwise.

I'm not sure why you refer to him as "one guy" instead of an opposing expert. Experts do not always agree. I've seen interviews with many doctors saying the same things here, these guys aren't getting mainstream air time.
 
I'm not sure why you refer to him as "one guy" instead of an opposing expert. Experts do not always agree. I've seen interviews with many doctors saying the same things here, these guys aren't getting mainstream air time.

my bad, its not my intention to discredit him and I will edit my previous post. Hes definitely an expert, but my point was that it seems like there are a lot of other experts that say otherwise and just from what we know about COVID doesnt seem to line up with this standpoint. The overwhelmed healthcare systems, the high mortality rate (he even cites it at 2% which would be higher than the seasonal flu by orders of magnitude). If hes right then why are we running into so many problems with this one? I mean, I dont imagine that countries set public policy for things like this based off fear mongering media reports?
 
Amid all the negativity I just want to bring up one thing. Coronavirus has brought people together (ironically given social separation) in ways you wouldn't believe. In my neighbourhood I've talked to my neighbours more than ever, we're all doing bits for the NHS and the vulnerable, there's a local Michelin-starred restaurant putting together food packages for the homeless, people are making masks, scrubs, etc for NHS workers, there are food distribution programs, honestly I've never seen anything like it. It's amazing, I mean it really is that wartime spirit people talk about from world war 2. It might not be like that everywhere I guess but it is where I am and it's just such a wonderful thing.


yin_yang_rotating.gif
 

Nymphae

Banned
(he even cites it at 2% which would be higher than the seasonal flu by orders of magnitude)

Where does he say 2%? I think the death rates are a little muddied right now anyway, I'm seeing lots of conflicting opinions on the data itself, and a lot of concern about how accurate the data even is. I watched another one last night with a physician who was stating that the death numbers are being really skewed and any deaths that are even "presumed" to be covid without having been tested are being included in tallies. They are adding deaths to the tallies from people who simply died with the virus, rather than from the virus, an important distinction. He highlighted a news story about a "baby who had died from Covid", turns out when you dig into it, the baby was admitted to hospitals some time earlier for organ failure and intestinal blockage, but the media rushes to add another covid death to the totals. I also heard that pneumonia statistics are way down for the year for the same reason, deaths from it are being attributed to covid complications.
 
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HarryKS

Member

cryptoadam

Banned
The article is weird since it makes the same mistake people have been making since the beginning; it does not account for hospitalisation and the lack of beds. Without social distancing, those numbers would be a lot worse.

I do agree and SD'ing has helped, but I think the predictions were way off. Now it was probably a good thing to scare the shiiiiite out of everyone, but the 100-200K deaths doesn't look like it will happen (at least not in wave 1).
 

HarryKS

Member
I do agree and SD'ing has helped, but I think the predictions were way off. Now it was probably a good thing to scare the shiiiiite out of everyone, but the 100-200K deaths doesn't look like it will happen (at least not in wave 1).

It might be the end of the year. Which is long ways off. Hopefully, it won't happen.
 

Liljagare

Member







Sadly this perspective isn't fear propaganda so no one will read it I guess, like the video I posted earlier with another perspective saying similar things. I had no idea Italy's hospitals operate at 95% capacity every winter.

Oh boy, I hope its truth... Would be kinda interesting if Sweden did the right thing in the end. Here is to hoping, we are still going to see it get worse, before it gets better, but statistics are allready starting to show a plateu..

Trying to remain positive, though now we have 4 confirmed sick in our apartment house, so no more elevator rides for me, nobody uses the stairs so taking them insted. :p
 
Where does he say 2%? I think the death rates are a little muddied right now anyway, I'm seeing lots of conflicting opinions on the data itself, and a lot of concern about how accurate the data even is. I watched another one last night with a physician who was stating that the death numbers are being really skewed and any deaths that are even "presumed" to be covid without having been tested are being included in tallies. They are adding deaths to the tallies from people who simply died with the virus, rather than from the virus, an important distinction. He highlighted a news story about a "baby who had died from Covid", turns out when you dig into it, the baby was admitted to hospitals some time earlier for organ failure and intestinal blockage, but the media rushes to add another covid death to the totals. I also heard that pneumonia statistics are way down for the year for the same reason, deaths from it are being attributed to covid complications.


[06:51.20] JOHN:And of those hospitalized cases, what, in your estimation, how many would die?
[06:59.15] WITTKOWSKI:2% will die—
[07:03.00] JOHN:Of the hospitalized cases?
[07:05.19] WITTKOWSKI:Of all cases.
[07:06.26] JOHN:Of all symptomatic cases.
[07:06.26] WITTKOWSKI: Of all symptomatic cases. 2% of all symptomatic cases will die. That is 2% of the 250,000 a day. So that is 500 people a day, and that will happen over 4 weeks. So, that could be as high as 10,000 people. Now, that compares to the normal numbers of flus during the flu season, and we have in the United States about 35,000 deaths due to flu every year during the flu season. So, it would be part of the normal situation during the flu season.

I tried to include the surrounding conversation as to not take it out of context. But is numbers on the flu dont seem to reflect what I've read up on it (I am not trying to claim I know more than this guy, because I absolutely do not). Honestly, I dont think you and I disagree on much. The data is all over the place and there are reports out there claiming that the deaths are both under reported AND over reported. The media is definitely pushing the doom and gloom outlook for this but I still think its better to err on the side of caution at least for now until we can sort the data out.
 

Nymphae

Banned
The data is all over the place and there are reports out there claiming that the deaths are both under reported AND over reported. The media is definitely pushing the doom and gloom outlook for this but I still think its better to err on the side of caution at least for now until we can sort the data out.

Yeah I mean I'm not out licking toilet seats lol, I take my basic precautions. But I like to get the side of the story that the media doesn't tell us as well.
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
Reopen ? Shits gonna take months , maybe even a year... it dropped because of all the measures, if you lossen shits gonna straight up. At least people here in The Netherlands are in accepting this.

There is a new now, and that will be with lots of measures until there is a vaccine.

Nah, the lockdowns are ending in May whether governments like it or not.
 
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hariseldon

Unconfirmed Member
Man Italy just cannot catch a break, one number goes up the other goes down etc. I want to see a day where both numbers go down in the same day.

The numbers that matter have gone down. The number testing positive is largely irrelevant as it is so heavily influenced by testing strategies. The hospital numbers and death count are all that matters, and death count is coming down nicely which suggests Italy is heading in the right direction.
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member

I don't think she or most of the other doctors had a crazy agenda. They relied on data analysis from other experts, who also probably did not have a crazy agenda. They just made faulty assumptions, because this situation is completely new in a variety of ways and there is little to compare it against to form those base assumptions. Going to be a lot of 20/20 hindsight criticism in the coming months and years, but I think the doctors were acting in what they believed to be the best interest of the nation.

That does call into the question of how much experts should be trusted in completely novel situations when the actions being recommended are sure bring great damage and misery in order to mitigate speculative deaths.
 

GHG

Member
I have a feeling in a few weeks to slowly start going outside again everyone will be forced to wear a mask. Will look weird man.

It's already like that in a lot of places.

Masks and gloves are required to go outside here now plus you need to get an approved permit from the government to go out.
 

cryptoadam

Banned
I don't think she or most of the other doctors had a crazy agenda. They relied on data analysis from other experts, who also probably did not have a crazy agenda. They just made faulty assumptions, because this situation is completely new in a variety of ways and there is little to compare it against to form those base assumptions. Going to be a lot of 20/20 hindsight criticism in the coming months and years, but I think the doctors were acting in what they believed to be the best interest of the nation.

That does call into the question of how much experts should be trusted in completely novel situations when the actions being recommended are sure bring great damage and misery in order to mitigate speculative deaths.

Agree. I also think that they had really high predictions and then more realistic predictions and they went with the high predictions to scare people, and to also make it seem like we did better than anyone could of seen.

If the US peaks at 50K deaths, that looks a lot better than 100-200K, and way better than 1-2 Million. If they came out and said 50K deats and you get 60K well you did a bad job and things were a lot worse. Under promise and over deliver.

And 100% we are going to look back at this and realize we did everything wrong along the way. But as you said its new and all we could do was react. The power of hindsight will give us more insight in our mistakes but I can't really dock people for reacting in a situation that looked unsolvable and uncontrollable.

Oh and also China. Since China was the canary in the coal mine and the first one, every country followed their model because it "worked". Even though it didn't "work" and everything they have said was basically BS.
 
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