cryptoadam
Banned
Its possible more deaths will be backdated in the future though.
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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check
- Thread starter keraj37
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Stage 4 lockdown declared now for Melbourne. Curfew 8pm, can only travel 5km.
State of Disaster declared providing extra powers... For fucks sake.
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Cracklox
Member
Yes. A 'State of Disaster'. But not in the way they mean.
This has been declared because some old people are dying of what basically amounts to a new strain of the flu.
If I had the option to be smuggled out of this state and live elsewhere for a while, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Its beyond stupid now
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hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
The amount of dishonest bullshit in that video is breathtaking. Government could have prevented 99% of deaths? Minorities fighting for the right not to be murdered? Fucking hell you’ve got to be kidding me.
DragoonKain
Neighbours from Hell
Probably rare, but these are the kinda things that worry me about COVID more than anything. The potential brain and heart issues it may cause.
www.espn.com
Heart issue ends season for Red Sox's Rodriguez
Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez won't pitch this season after being diagnosed with heart inflammation that team doctors believe was caused by the pitcher's battle with the coronavirus.
It’s why you need to be responsible and cautious and follow the simple rules. Can also happen to young people who had it mild. This virus is no joke , I personally know someone who is 34 and still not 100 % 4 months now.Probably rare, but these are the kinda things that worry me about COVID more than anything. The potential brain and heart issues it may cause.
Heart issue ends season for Red Sox's Rodriguez
Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez won't pitch this season after being diagnosed with heart inflammation that team doctors believe was caused by the pitcher's battle with the coronavirus.
but what’s rare ? If 0,5 % of the world population get these symptoms, it’s still a lot, just saying .
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Sweden didn't let the virus run its course. They used voluntary social distancing to suppress it.
But dead’s would not rise according to some posters in this thread , who seem to have fled this thread ...
Yup, but that’s what they don’t want to read , it did basically the same stuff as other countries, but are less populated than most eu countries.
But you see that deaths are higher than their neighboring Scandinavian countries.
but because of their spread population they could do it this way to see if the could also get herd immunity, but that’s impossible for now the coming 2 years.
You u could even say it hurt their economy more because they got cut-off by other countries because of the risk of spread.
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DeepBreath87
Banned
They also never closed schools or businesses. They only tested hospitalized patients. They didn’t shut they’re society in any significant way. I feel like when people say “run it’s course” they mean two very different things.
I don’t think anyone is advocating for 10,000 packed into concert halls or large events. But places like California have basically forced every business that isn’t a grocery store to close since March.
The virus is going to move through the population as some level. The key is and has always been dampening the spike to keep the hospitalizations manageable. Hopefully enough healthy people can recover and that will slow the spread as there will be less people to infect as time goes on.
But there is no stopping this. Not in the long term. And temporary crackdowns are pointless. As soon as you reopen, it will be there.
You can only dampen the spike if you keep the reproduction rate of the virus, R, (the average number of people that each infected person infects) at or below 1. Otherwise it will grow exponentially. You could do this with a high number of cases, so it plateaus at a high level, but the risk of that strategy is that it could spiral out of control at any moment. Sweden kept R below 1 despite not closing down the economy, presumably due to the low population density and high levels of social compliance. So even though according to the initial serology studies, only around 6% of the population got infected, cases are heading for zero.
California peaked at 1.12 after the re-opening and are now estimated to be at 0.96 (https://rt.live/us/CA), so there is almost no room for manoeuvre, unlike in Sweden. I think the solution is to replace the lockdown with a massive scaling up of testing and track and tracing.
This is kinda stupid though. Our (swe) neighbors are not as similar as you think and we did not have the same initial exposure.
We have high density in Stockholm so it does not matter how big the uninhabited places are.
Noone was trying to go for heard immunity and noone ever tries to argue that is the approach countries use for flu season.
I still dont get the fascination with deaths from this virus. Sweden has less deaths overall (per capita) compared to Finland this year. We have a higher life expectancy compared to all our neighbors and the overall death rate this year will hardly stick out compared to regular years unless deaths sky rocket this fall. How is this even remotely worth the measures people are discussing?
This is like not even remotely close to real figures, where do you get this bad data?
Antibody studies do not show immunity levels in the population, only how many currently have measurable antibodies.
New study casts more doubt on Swedish coronavirus immunity hopes
Sweden's hopes of getting help from herd immunity in combating the coronavirus received a fresh blow on Thursday, when a new study showed fewer than anticipated had developed antibodies.
www.reuters.com
eot
Banned
Sweden did way less, I was there and also actually left during the lockdown. People in Sweden took it much less seriously than a lot of other EU countries.
Yeah, that is missinformed. He is equating measured antibodies with immunity, that is not how it works. The antibodies can hardly be measured if you had mild symtoms and they dissapear for everyone within months making these snapshots.New study casts more doubt on Swedish coronavirus immunity hopes
Sweden's hopes of getting help from herd immunity in combating the coronavirus received a fresh blow on Thursday, when a new study showed fewer than anticipated had developed antibodies.
In Stockholm if you measured for these for a period of 6 weeks, the rate of antibodies would stay the same at some percentage (say 14 %). This is while spread continues and they should rise. This only means you find them in a different group of people that had the virus later.
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Brother, I hear ya. My brother is of the same mind, too. Absolutely loved ADF, VicPol, the general betterment of our State. Now, he hates it so much he too is planning his own little exodus. He's been lobbying certain organisations about that St Basil's Aged Care home in Fawkner situation but is so disgusted at everything and his conviction so fierce that I, too, agree. I won't get into detail here, but suffice to say, he has intimate knowledge of it. In fact, much of what is coming out is due to a concerted campaign from a few of us. This state, and federal government have blood on their hands.
It is no longer the Australia we have loved and grown up in.
Somehow, we need to resist this. But how? Perhaps the only resistance is to escape as your are contemplating.
I am with you. I am looking to bug out of Victoria (if not Australia), the only thing holding me back is my elderly father who I would never abandon.
Best wishes to you, stay strong, keep an eye out for your family and loved ones.
DeepBreath87
Banned
Your solution is completely impractical. The testing is far too inconsistent and track/tracing isn’t workable in large cities without massive control of human movement. We already are seeing week delays in test results. It worked in Asia so far because they never had a spike. Once it’s broadly within the population, you can’t test/trace it away.
Sweden has no idea what their R was because they didn’t test broadly. They only tested hospitalized people. The initial wave is going to be big. But you don’t need herd immunity to slow the spread. As the % of population with natural immunity increases, you begin to suppress the R. The idea that population immunity is all or nothing is wrong.
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diffusionx
Gold Member
Here in New York, it is taking around 2 weeks to get test results back. Of course. by the time you get tests back, you're already over it. I don't think the testing capability of the scale people are talking about is physically possible. There's not enough labs and stuff.
Lockdowns ultimately just kick the can down the road. I think in this thread somebody posted 2 girls that made a cross state trip around Queensland infecting people. All it takes is one joker like that to restart things in a population without sufficient built-in immunity. And it is literally impossible for modern society to prevent that one person from getting through.
We need to be realistic here. The only thing lockdowns are good for is a short-term suppression of transmission - which is exactly what "flatten the curve" means. But it also means that the curve will go up when lockdowns are lifted. That is axiomatically true. If, as the current evidence in Sweden and NYC seems to point to, there is some level of herd immunity that can be built up in places where the virus has spent more time "roaming free", then that should be what every government should be going for.
Lockdowns ultimately just kick the can down the road. I think in this thread somebody posted 2 girls that made a cross state trip around Queensland infecting people. All it takes is one joker like that to restart things in a population without sufficient built-in immunity. And it is literally impossible for modern society to prevent that one person from getting through.
We need to be realistic here. The only thing lockdowns are good for is a short-term suppression of transmission - which is exactly what "flatten the curve" means. But it also means that the curve will go up when lockdowns are lifted. That is axiomatically true. If, as the current evidence in Sweden and NYC seems to point to, there is some level of herd immunity that can be built up in places where the virus has spent more time "roaming free", then that should be what every government should be going for.
DeepBreath87
Banned
Managed spread is the only answer. Lockdowns have their role to play when things get out of control, ala New York City in March/April. But the cat has been out of the bag in the US for six months. It’s not going back in. Testing, behavior controls, tracing. They’re all tools to manage the spread, but managing the spread is all we can do. Maybe a vaccine swoops in 3 months from now and saves the day. Maybe not. We need to operate like it’s not. Locking down hoping for a vaccine is a fool’s errand.
Stouffers
Banned
Well they sure as hell can’t read them.
Ok, that's a fair point. Though in that article Tegnell himself estimates a spread of immunity "from 4 to 5% to 20 to 25%". So that would be below the herd immunity threshold.
I guess the right way of thinking about it is that the rate of acceleration will fall, since R will be falling as the percentage of susceptible population diminishes. But the number of cases will still be accelerating until the peak of the epidemic when R = 1, and the "speed" (number of cases every X time period) is momentarily constant. So letting the virus rampage through the population will only slow the spread *after* the peak has already been reached. If that peak is within the capacity of the healthcare system, you're fine. If it's not, you're screwed.
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hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
They should Swexit - go on Sweden, be based like Britain!
Why spread a bunch of missinformation like this?
Sweden is not locked out of any economy. How would this even work?
Travel is also available to and from many countries and will open up even more soon. It is not like rest of Europe has had open borders with travellers everywhere.
cryptoadam
Banned
White people in Toronto be like sweet.
Chittagong
Gold Member
UK hits single digit deaths with 8 today
infections pretty flat at 770. Not sure what is driving the new round of panic.
infections pretty flat at 770. Not sure what is driving the new round of panic.
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If only every day was a Sunday...UK hits single digit deaths with 8 today
infections pretty flat at 770. Not sure what is driving the new round of panic.
There is no panic but your numbers are rising now since 3 weeks instead of falling. The trend reversal is the problem here.
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hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
Infections, not deaths. Don’t forget infection counts are a product of the amount of testing being done - deaths are the most reliable metric, and indeed the only one that matter.
It could also be that young people see getting it instead of wrinklies now we know to keep it away from them, and thus the CFR is dropping.
Neither of those scenarios invites panic.
Mobile Suit Gooch
Grundle: The Awakening
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hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
Stiflers Mom
Banned
We have had below ten deaths for one and a half months now in Germany. More like 5 deaths usually, even.
Things seem to be under control here, imo.
But we got a lot of panic at the moment about that "second wave".
Things seem to be under control here, imo.
But we got a lot of panic at the moment about that "second wave".
Yup, but most of Europe’s are, The Netherlands also.
You like to see more deaths? Is that what you are saying? Is 160k not enough? I don’t get your point?
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Not completely true, if you test and keep finding rising numbers of infections you have a problem the virus is spreading, and you don’t want it as wide spread. And because almost 50 % is spreading without symptoms you can very fast have a overload in your health care system.
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hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
Let me give you some simple maths. Imagine a room of 10,000 people where 500 of them have the virus. If you only test 10 people, then at the most you can find 10 cases, but in all likelihood you'll find 1 or 2. If you instead test a thousand people, you'll probably find 50. If you test 2000 you'll find 100. So the number of positive cases found is clearly in proportion to testing. Further, the percentage of positive tests is influenced by testing methodology. Are we testing randomly among the general population or just people who think they may have symptoms or only people presenting in hospital with symptoms?
DeafTourette
Perpetually Offended
I’ve seen several articles like this pop up in the last week or 10 days. It appears that covid-19 may cause hearing loss in some patients.
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SLoWMoTIoN
Unconfirmed Member
Kinda already fucked there, I'm more worried about the lungs/taste bud issues.
Whereabouts? (out of curiosity)
PA (US)
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justonething
Jada's BFF
oi gavna ya got a loisance for dat covid mate?
diffusionx
Gold Member
Holland's scientists say there's no solid evidence face coverings work
While 120 countries in the world, including much of Europe, have ordered citizens to wear masks in public places to prevent the spread of Covid-19, the Dutch are doing things differently.
Looking forward to the TikTok dances coming out of Pennsylvania ICUs then
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bigsnack
Member
The US food system is killing Americans | CNN
Akash Goel, Michel Nischan, Bill Frist and Tom Coliccio write that now, more than ever, it is critical to address nutrition insecurity in America head on. While food insecurity is about providing more food, nutrition insecurity is about providing the right food, so we and our children can build...
www.cnn.com
llien
Member
Iran seems to be lying about number of deaths (BBC based on data provided by anonymous source):
www.bbc.com
I was among alarmists back in March, but let me remember what my reason for it was: even though death rate is about 1%, number of people that need intensive treatment is at around 5%, we risk overwhelming healthcare systems and then number of deaths will skyrocket.
But it seams that healthcare systems are doing just fine, in fact, past first weeks in Italy, there haven't been any shortages of ICUs, at least in the West.
So, at the end of the day... 1% is tolerable, perhaps?
I don't remember who it was, I think it was Jordan Peterson, who has mentioned life expectancy in Sweden down 3-4 years due to Covid-19 deaths.
Most of Swedish deaths are elderly people.
Sweden's registered C19 deaths per 1Million is 568.
Finland's is 59.
www.worldometers.info
diffusionx
There is a joke about that parachutes being good for health, when jumping from planes, is not proved, following standards used by medics to prove effectiveness of a measure.
Sometimes one has to go with common sense.
Coronavirus: Iran cover-up of deaths revealed by data leak
Nearly three times more people died than Iran's government admitted, records seen by the BBC show.
www.bbc.com
I was among alarmists back in March, but let me remember what my reason for it was: even though death rate is about 1%, number of people that need intensive treatment is at around 5%, we risk overwhelming healthcare systems and then number of deaths will skyrocket.
But it seams that healthcare systems are doing just fine, in fact, past first weeks in Italy, there haven't been any shortages of ICUs, at least in the West.
So, at the end of the day... 1% is tolerable, perhaps?
I am skeptical about cross-country comparisons as there are many parameters at play, French refuse to wear masks, why Germans mostly do wear them, it depends on who your neighbor is, what the initial strike was, etc. But you have posted a number of things which are not right.
I don't remember who it was, I think it was Jordan Peterson, who has mentioned life expectancy in Sweden down 3-4 years due to Covid-19 deaths.
Most of Swedish deaths are elderly people.
Hm... That metric depends on other parameters (average age of the population, for instance).
Sweden's registered C19 deaths per 1Million is 568.
Finland's is 59.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 131,897,800 Cases and 2,865,517 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info
diffusionx
There is a joke about that parachutes being good for health, when jumping from planes, is not proved, following standards used by medics to prove effectiveness of a measure.
Sometimes one has to go with common sense.
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diffusionx
Gold Member
There is a joke about that parachutes being good for health, when jumping from planes, is not proved, following standards used by medics to prove effectiveness of a measure.
Sometimes one has to go with common sense.
Sounds like a stupid joke. We have been seeing increases in places with mask mandates and high levels of compliance, and we also saw decreases in places before mask mandates went into place. Demanding people wear masks that cover their faces and puts a literal barrier in basic human interaction is an extreme measure (just like shutting down the entire economy), and should not be done lightly and definitely not on a "muh common sense" argument.
Maybe in the extreme short term as an emergency, it can be deemed acceptable, just like the lockdowns, but as with the lockdowns, we are quickly moving into a world where masks are the universal default and no arguments against that orthodoxy is allowed.
Chances are the vast majority of new cases are coming from households and poop miasma anyway, which probably explains why masks didn't do what the hysterics claimed it should do.
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llien
Member
No:
Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials
Objectives To determine whether parachutes are effective in preventing major trauma related to gravitational challenge.Design Systematic review of randomised controlled trials.Data sources: Medline, Web of Science, Embase, and the Cochrane Library databases; ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
People are asked to wear masks in places filled with strangers, such as grocery shops.
It takes US and its ridiculous democrats vs republicans to turn pretty much anything into liberals vs conservatives nonsense.
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SLoWMoTIoN
Unconfirmed Member
Not everyone here is knee deep in politician cock smh.
diffusionx
Gold Member
No:
Sounds like certain approaches should not be applied universally.Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials
Objectives To determine whether parachutes are effective in preventing major trauma related to gravitational challenge.Design Systematic review of randomised controlled trials.Data sources: Medline, Web of Science, Embase, and the Cochrane Library databases; ...
People are asked to wear masks in places filled with strangers, such as grocery shops.
It takes US and its ridiculous democrats vs republicans to turn pretty much anything into liberals vs conservatives nonsense.
Who said anything about democrats vs republicans or liberals vs conservatives? I did not. I said that mask mandates are an extreme measure, and they are. I said that we should not resort to permanent extreme measures like lockdowns and masks without very good reasons as opposed to hunches. I also said that I have very strong doubts based on what happened in places like CA and AZ after the mask mandates went into place.
I still believe that masks are "security theater" more than anything else, they give people a feeling over control and security in a very uncontrollable situation.
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