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Coronavirus Global Pandemic |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

llien

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Wearing masks in crowded places is not an "extreme" measure.
In fact, in a well known Asian countries, it's a norm for a person who feels sick, but is not staying home, to wear a mask.

I also said that I have very strong doubts based on what happened in places like CA and AZ after the mask mandates went into place.
Very strong doubts based on coincidence is not a very strongly scientific take.

I still believe that masks are "security theater" more than anything else,
Because the fact that having mouth covered reduces amount of stuff that flies out of it is not obvoius.
 

iconmaster

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Over the hump again. I decided to exclude the most recent week's numbers from the CDC since the quantities, being provisional, jump around toward the tail end. It gives a falsely reassuring picture. However the trend is heading in the right direction again.
 

DeepBreath87

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Wearing masks in crowded places is not an "extreme" measure.
In fact, in a well known Asian countries, it's a norm for a person who feels sick, but is not staying home, to wear a mask.


Very strong doubts based on coincidence is not a very strongly scientific take.


Because the fact that having mouth covered reduces amount of stuff that flies out of it is not obvoius.
So in the absence of data, we use common sense? Is that your strongly scientific take? I’m not saying it’s not a fact, but there is certainly a debate about how effective masks actually are. Why do you think they’re pushing for face shields now?

Either way, it’s pretty interesting when “people of science” like yourself make appeals to common sense. I always enjoy that.

For the record, I wear a mask when I find it to be appropriate. I’m not sure how helpful it actually is, but I participate voluntarily. I do not wear one at the gym or anytime I’m outside. I wear one indoors in public spaces (excluding the gym).
 
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diffusionx

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Wearing masks in crowded places is not an "extreme" measure.
In fact, in a well known Asian countries, it's a norm for a person who feels sick, but is not staying home, to wear a mask.
We aren’t talking about people feeling sick to wear a mask are we. We are talking about 100% of people wearing masks 24/7 from the moment they leave the house to the moment they get home, and even in the home in some instances.


Very strong doubts based on coincidence is not a very strongly scientific take.
I'll tell you what is not a strongly scientific take, showing pictures of people coughing in each others' faces and claiming this is what masks help with, like people coughing in peoples' faces is a huge problem and source of transmission.


Because the fact that having mouth covered reduces amount of stuff that flies out of it is not obvoius.
How is it a coincidence lol, it's an observation of what has actually happened in the real world. Look, the hysterical people are quick to point out we know very little about this, but they also say, against all observed evidence, that just wearing masks and socially distancing will fix this for good (see link below). Obviously that's not true. Obviously more is happening that is not being covered by masks and nobody is bothering to look into it because they're so focused on security theater and shaming old maskless boomers at grocery stores.

 
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Joe T.

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Wearing masks in crowded places is not an "extreme" measure.
In fact, in a well known Asian countries, it's a norm for a person who feels sick, but is not staying home, to wear a mask.

How well are those masks working when 4.5 million people in Japan are catching the flu in a 2 week period?

Conclusions
Overall, this study suggests that wearing a face mask in public may be associated with other personal hygiene practices and health behaviors among Japanese adults. Rather than preventing influenza itself, face mask use might instead be a marker of additional, positive hygiene practices and other favorable health behaviors in the same individuals.

It's a signal to the rest of the world that you might be more hygienic than someone not wearing a mask. In other words: "Even if they aren't preventing the spread at least we know they're taking this more seriously." This aligns more with the belief that it's some measure of control than one borne out of effectiveness.
 
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Breakage

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So the UK government is trying to encourage Brits to slim down in preparation for a second wave, but today it launched the unfortunately named Eat Out to Help Out scheme that gives people a 50% discount on food at participating establishments every Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday for as many times as they like for the whole month of August.

The mind boggles.
 
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DeepBreath87

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So the UK government is trying to encourage Brits to slim down in preparation for a second wave, but today it launched the unfortunately named Eat Out to Help Out scheme that gives people a 50% discount on food at participating restaurants every Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday for as many times as they like for the whole month of August.

The mind boggles.
I mean you can eat at a restaurant and not eat like crap. You’re right that most people don’t, but they could and should. Portion size is another issue at most restaurants. I know it is in the US, at least.
 

llien

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So in the absence of data, we use common sense?
When it is obvious, we use common sense. That parachute efficacy, ya know.


Why do you think they’re pushing for face shields now?
Why are "they"? "Some things could be even more effective" and "reducing the scale of contamination coming of one's mouth using mask" not helping are two different things, regardless. And I hope you won't mention WHO, the clowns.

Either way, it’s pretty interesting when “people of science” like yourself make appeals to common sense. I always enjoy that.
I think we are both entitled to own opinions.
I can ridicule drawing strong conclusions from random correlation facts, you could laugh at masks "obviously" helping.

I’m not sure how helpful it actually is...
Measuring it is far from trivial and outright unrealistic in our circumstances.

We aren’t talking about people feeling sick to wear a mask are we. We are talking about 100% of people wearing masks 24/7 from the moment they leave the house to the moment they get home, and even in the home in some instances.
We are talking about disease, which leaves large number of people without any kind of symptoms, that's why even people who do not feel sick should also wear it.

I agree that "wear always, when you are outside" is harsh, although I could see benefits from it.

I'll tell you what is not a strongly scientific take, showing pictures of people coughing in each others' faces and claiming this is what masks help with, like people coughing in peoples' faces is a huge problem and source of transmission.
Water drops leave our mouth even when we just talk, no coughing is needed.

Very early into pandemic, Japanese task force figured three C pattern: closed spaces, close contact, crowded spaces.

How is it a coincidence lol, it's an observation of what has actually happened in the real world.
So is this:


How well are those masks working when 4.5 million people in Japan are catching the flu in a 2 week period?
Your next citation doesn't challenge it working, but hints at there possibly ("might") being other explanations. (which is quite scientific)
4.5 million is 3.5% of the population, a damn good figure for flu.

Masks that ordinary people are asked to wear are mitigating the spread, not bringing stopping it altogether.
 

diffusionx

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Are you saying we can't look at the infection rate and masks together? I mean, it is people like you who say there is a direct causal relationship between the two, now you post a dumb reddit-style correlation/causation graph? Makes no sense.

If we are to take these extraordinary measures it is incumbent on the people demanding it to prove it is effective. If it was, I think we would have seen California level off in terms of infections within a week of their mandate (6/18), not go up at the same exponential rate for a month before starting to level off. They hit their peak rate on July 20, a month after their mask mandate.

Interestingly enough, that 6-week spike paired with the leveling off, which we are seeing in 3 states simultaneously now, is similar to what we saw in places like New York early on in the pandemic. I feel like there is a story here, not being told, because everyone is so focused on behavior and thought control.
 
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Gp1

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In case someone wonders why Brazil is still reporting 1000-1200 deaths per day.



Brazil is reporting today deaths from more than 2 months ago (for N reasons). This kind of data really shows whether you have bended the curve or not.
That's why you must differentiate Date of Death vs Date of Death report, like UK health department said it will do.
 

DeepBreath87

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When it is obvious, we use common sense. That parachute efficacy, ya know.



Why are "they"? "Some things could be even more effective" and "reducing the scale of contamination coming of one's mouth using mask" not helping are two different things, regardless. And I hope you won't mention WHO, the clowns.


I think we are both entitled to own opinions.
I can ridicule drawing strong conclusions from random correlation facts, you could laugh at masks "obviously" helping.


Measuring it is far from trivial and outright unrealistic in our circumstances.



We are talking about disease, which leaves large number of people without any kind of symptoms, that's why even people who do not feel sick should also wear it.

I agree that "wear always, when you are outside" is harsh, although I could see benefits from it.


Water drops leave our mouth even when we just talk, no coughing is needed.

Very early into pandemic, Japanese task force figured three C pattern: closed spaces, close contact, crowded spaces.


So is this:



Your next citation doesn't challenge it working, but hints at there possibly ("might") being other explanations. (which is quite scientific)
4.5 million is 3.5% of the population, a damn good figure for flu.

Masks that ordinary people are asked to wear are mitigating the spread, not bringing stopping it altogether.
These aren’t parachutes out of airplanes. You understand the evidence of the efficacy of parachutes isn’t remotely comparable, right? Because you keep referring to it like it’s some sort of relevant point. The efficacy of masks doesn’t have any data really supporting it. Especially the worthless cloth ones most people wear.

So maybe don’t bring up the parachutes thing again. It’s stupid. If you don’t wear a parachute while sky diving, you die. It’s 1 to 1. No one can provide data on how much a bandana over your mouth slows transmission of covid. You take it on faith, which is fine.
 
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llien

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Are you saying we can't look at the infection rate and masks together? I mean, it is people like you who say there is a direct causal relationship between the two, now you post a dumb reddit-style correlation/causation graph? Makes no sense.
Let's go slowly, shall we?
You have linked yellow press article citing "lack of solid evidence" that masks work, as evidence of the opposite.
Parachute effectiveness article demonstrates that (for good reasons) standards for "solid evidence" in the field are extremely high.

Isn't it obvious that masks block drops coming out of one's mouth?

Have Californians, especially those in densely populated, poor places, actually wear masks? France mandated it ages ago, no fucks are given. Outcome? France at 70k and growing number of known active cases (was about 60k 3 weeks ago) Italy, Germany at around 10k (with some spikes likely due to tourism chaos)

Why did Germany, Italy, Switzerland see drop in active cases (number of people infected at a given moment), while in US (including CA and AZ) number keeps climbing?
 

llien

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The efficacy of masks doesn’t have any data really supporting it.
My parachute post was responding to "no solid evidence", to strass that what "solid evidence" means here.

As for "no evidence" for mask effectiveness:

1) Study of droplets leaving one's mouth when saying "stay healthy". (I hope there is nothing magical about these two words) Shows major reduction in number of droplets if basic mask is used. Tell me for whom this is even remotely surprising please.
2) Another study with similar conclusions, this time, tracing actual viruses.

Ok, so number of droplets is reduced (obviously) but does that help?
Study of data from US states (that was unable to assess compliance, i.e. % of the population actually wearing the masks) concludes:
"There is a significant decline in daily COVID-19 growth rate after mandating facial covers in public, with the effect increasing over time after signing the order. Specifically, the daily case rate declines by 0.9, 1.1, 1.4, 1.7, and 2.0 percentage-points within 1–5, 6–10, 11–15, and 16–20, and 21+ days after signing, respectively. "
 

DeepBreath87

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My parachute post was responding to "no solid evidence", to strass that what "solid evidence" means here.

As for "no evidence" for mask effectiveness:

1) Study of droplets leaving one's mouth when saying "stay healthy". (I hope there is nothing magical about these two words) Shows major reduction in number of droplets if basic mask is used. Tell me for whom this is even remotely surprising please.
2) Another study with similar conclusions, this time, tracing actual viruses.

Ok, so number of droplets is reduced (obviously) but does that help?
Study of data from US states (that was unable to assess compliance, i.e. % of the population actually wearing the masks) concludes:
"There is a significant decline in daily COVID-19 growth rate after mandating facial covers in public, with the effect increasing over time after signing the order. Specifically, the daily case rate declines by 0.9, 1.1, 1.4, 1.7, and 2.0 percentage-points within 1–5, 6–10, 11–15, and 16–20, and 21+ days after signing, respectively. "
So now we’re allowed to use correlation evidence? Weren’t you the person who just posted that stupid graph about technology spending and hangings?

I’m sure masks have their use in specific circumstances. The broad public mandates are bullshit, however. There is no science that says mask wearing outside is helpful in any real way.

Edit:

Those damn Dutch don’t have any common sense. They don’t believe in science. I’ll bet they go skydiving without parachutes over there.

That or there is an open debate about this stuff.
 
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Belgorim

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I am skeptical about cross-country comparisons as there are many parameters at play, French refuse to wear masks, why Germans mostly do wear them, it depends on who your neighbor is, what the initial strike was, etc. But you have posted a number of things which are not right.

I don't remember who it was, I think it was Jordan Peterson, who has mentioned life expectancy in Sweden down 3-4 years due to Covid-19 deaths.

Most of Swedish deaths are elderly people.
I have not posted stuff that is not right and the thing you quoted me on has nothing to do with cross-country comparisons. It was about Swedish mortality rate probably being kinda normal after the year is over (of course depending on how the rest of the year goes).

That thing about life expectancy being down already is probably bullshit considering overall deaths from all sources hardly deviating from a normal year.

And life expectancy would go down more if something killed a lot of young people. The median age of people passing away from covid is somewhere around the life expectancy.

Hm... That metric depends on other parameters (average age of the population, for instance).
Sweden's registered C19 deaths per 1Million is 568.
Finland's is 59.
You are misinterpreting what I wrote, I was referring to all sources of death (I am pretty sure Sweden has more old people compared to Finland also). I am questioning why it matters that more people die from covid in Sweden compared to Finland for example when Sweden has less deaths per capita when you check all sources of death.

I and everyone else already know Sweden has more C19 deaths since that is all that is ever talked about.
 

llien

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So now we’re allowed to use correlation evidence?
I love you've found that it is appropriate to pick one, of 3 articles busting your stance.
They don’t believe in science.
Dutch scientists did due diligence and pointed out there might be explanations other than masks effectiveness

There is no science that says mask wearing outside is helpful in any real way.
You were just poked with it.

This isn't a honest attempt to figure if masks are effective or not.

Arrivederci.

I am pretty sure Sweden has more old people compared to Finland also
Sweden's average age: 41.2
Finland: 42.5
Italy: 45.5

I am questioning why it matters that more people die from covid in Sweden compared to Finland for example when Sweden has less deaths per capita when you check all sources of death.
I couldn't find the sources, but going with official statistic:
Sweden: 9.1 deaths per 1k annually (9.8 in Finnland). With population of about 10.2 million, it is 92k deaths.
Officially registered number of deaths from C19 is 5.7k.
Which about 9% increase, not exactly "normal", although not too bad either.
 

DeepBreath87

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So now we’re allowed to use correlation evidence? Weren’t you the person who just posted that stupid graph about technology spending and hangings?
I love you've found that it is appropriate to pick one, of 3 articles busting your stance.

Dutch scientists did due diligence and pointed out there might be explanations other than masks effectiveness


You were just poked with it.

This isn't a honest attempt to figure if masks are effective or not.

Arrivederci.


Sweden's average age: 41.2
Finland: 42.5
Italy: 45.5


I couldn't find the sources, but going with official statistic:
Sweden: 9.1 deaths per 1k annually (9.8 in Finnland). With population of about 10.2 million, it is 92k deaths.
Officially registered number of deaths from C19 is 5.7k.
Which about 9% increase, not exactly "normal", although not too bad either.
My stance is what exactly? That the impact of masks is negligible and mandates have, in practice, been shown to have little impact. I’m not anti mask.

But I am against people who make very simplistic comparisons like masks vs parachutes and then claim to be looking for honest discussion.

Oh well. Au revoir.
 
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Belgorim

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Sweden's average age: 41.2
Finland: 42.5
Italy: 45.5
That is not enough to determine who has most old people, but I dont know if that was what you where trying to prove. But you also have to define who is old first if I guess.

Going by life expectancy and that average age you could also draw the conclusion that Finland has very few young people.
 
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ManaByte

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sinnergy

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The Netherlands is going down the shitter again, thank you vacation , looks like Rotterdam is going into some kind of lockdown , maybe even Amsterdam a couple of weeks later. Mid week we will have a pers conf of our government!

good job protesters , vacation goers !

at least in my state it’s okay for now!
 

pel1300

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The Netherlands is going down the shitter again, thank you vacation , looks like Rotterdam is going into some kind of lockdown , maybe even Amsterdam a couple of weeks later. Mid week we will have a pers conf of our government!

good job protesters , vacation goers !

at least in my state it’s okay for now!
And this is why I'd rather live in Sweden now than anywhere else in Europe.

People in Thailand and Indonesia are living life like normal now - and trying to get tourists to come now (in Bali and all of Thailand). It's just the Western expats that are scared there and staying quarantined at home - not the local people.

This pandemic is so Western/Free World centric I swear.
 
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sinnergy

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And this is why I'd rather live in Sweden now than anywhere else in Europe.

People in Thailand and Indonesia are living life like normal now - in Bangkok people are clubbing with no masks. In Indonesia most people don't obey social distancing rules. The only ones scared locked in their homes are cowardly Western expats moaning and whining on FB about how the local people aren't responsible - without realizing the local people literally cannot survive months without working like these wealthy expats can.

Thiis virus is such a "Free World" or Western society centric one. Countries where the spoken language is a romance language for some odd reason affected so much....while non-wester
Seems false alarm , we be partying!
 

pel1300

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Seems false alarm , we be partying!
And they have only 3k cases and 58 deaths. Hasn't moved an inch in weeks.

I'm probably going there next month. Left some stuff there. Then to Cambodia again...where their death toll is ZERO.
 

12Goblins

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DeepBreath87

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An interesting graph mapping all UK deaths by age bracket.

You’re looking at 40,000 deaths for people over the age of 75 to 10,000 for everybody else if I did the estimate right in my head. So 80% of the deaths are people basically at or above life expectancy.

People don’t like to hear this, but you’d better consider how much of you’re willing to damage your society and the people in it for something like that.
 
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prag16

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You’re looking at 40,000 deaths for people over the age of 75 to 10,000 for everybody else if I did the estimate right in my head. So 80% of the deaths are people basically at or above life expectancy.

People don’t like to hear this, but you’d better consider how much of you’re willing to damage your society and the people in it for something like that.
The median (and average) age of death is indeed above the life expectancy almost everywhere, if not everywhere. Can't have a rational discussion though. Mass hysteria is the only allowable stance.
 
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DeepBreath87

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The median (and average) age of death is indeed above the life expectancy almost everywhere, if not everywhere. Can't have a rational discussion though. Mass hysteria is the only allowable stance.
It really is insanity on a mass scale. I’m not saying COVID is fake or we should let all our grandparents die. We should try to protect them as best we can. We should not, however, sacrifice our way of life or ruin the education of an entire generation of kids. There has to be a balance.
 

cryptoadam

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UK is a bit high under 75 and the graph would probably be a bit worse in the USA. I blame fatties. Mexico probably also not doing so well.

Unhealthy countries will get harder hit in the 45-75 group.
 

bigsnack

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UK is a bit high under 75 and the graph would probably be a bit worse in the USA. I blame fatties. Mexico probably also not doing so well.

Unhealthy countries will get harder hit in the 45-75 group.
Absolutely true 100%. I’ve mentioned this a couple of times on that OTHER forum, and it’s tumbleweeds every time. People don’t want to hear that they might be at fault for their own demise.
 
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DeepBreath87

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UK is a bit high under 75 and the graph would probably be a bit worse in the USA. I blame fatties. Mexico probably also not doing so well.

Unhealthy countries will get harder hit in the 45-75 group.
You’re probably right. It doesn’t change my premise though. The idea we’re going to set a generation of kids back in ways we can’t even really understand yet is insane. Bill DiBlasio just said indoor dining in New York City will not happen until June 2021. The whole state had averages about 10 deaths a day.
 
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prag16

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You’re probably right. It doesn’t change my premise though. The idea we’re going to set a generation of kids back in ways we can’t even really understand yet is insane. Bill DiBlasio just said indoor dining in New York City will not happen until June 2021. The whole state had averages about 10 deaths a day.
In CT we've been hovering between 50 to 70 currently hospitalized (out of 3.5+ million people) for weeks now, averaging 2-3 deaths per day (80-90 is the all-cause daily average more or less if you divide annual statistics by 365). But now they plan to start actually prosecuting those who run afoul of mask/distancing guidelines even outdoors, and we can't open schools.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
 
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Chittagong

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I was astonished by how small the <45 bracket is. I of course knew the disease hits disproportionately the older, but I still had the perception that a fair amount of young and healthy are dying in not-insignificant amounts, based on the cases brought forwards in the media.

I guess the intent initially was to use fear to drive compliance.
 
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Cracklox

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In CT we've been hovering between 50 to 70 currently hospitalized (out of 3.5+ million people) for weeks now, averaging 2-3 deaths per day (80-90 is the all-cause daily average more or less if you divide annual statistics by 365). But now they plan to start actually prosecuting those who run afoul of mask/distancing guidelines even outdoors, and we can't open schools.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
Crazy pills indeed. Here in Victoria, Australia are some of the things that have happened in the last few days

- 'State of Disaster' declared. Authorities have extra powers for more and bigger fines

- 8pm-5am curfew. The virus is of course at its worst during these hours

- All non essential retailers and businesses shut down. Thats another 250,000 people out of work on top of our already record high number

- Only allowed out for 1 hour a day. Originally they said exercise was ok, but then said no because too many people would use that as an excuse for being out. (I kid you not)

- 1 person per household, once a day can go to the supermarket

- If you are traveling outside of curfew hours for essential work, you need 'papers' to show to authorities

There's plenty more as well but thats of the top of my head. Oh and might I add the idiot running our state has been known to be quite friendly with the CCP... His health minister also made a fool out of herself yesterday when she wouldn't answer any questions from the media or opposition government, instead saying we can all have a written statement in a few days. So for now, it seems to me that we have a 6 week trial of Communism in the state.

Why? Because 5-15 elderly people have died with the virus each day for the last 2 weeks or so. We're at 232 deaths (across Australia, population 25 million) since this all began too. The youngest being a 42 year old who reportedly had other conditions as well.

'State of Disaster'...
 
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ULTROS!

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It's getting bad here in the Philippines, over the past few weeks there have been over 1.5k per day cases (past few days it was 2-3k a day). We were reverted yesterday to a modified enhanced community lockdown (from June to July, it was a general community lockdown, March to April was enhanced community lockdown, May was modified enhance quarantine), here's an explanation:

 
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DeepBreath87

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All I can say is if people don’t like this lockdown insanity, those of us in democracies need to vote these clowns out. Our media in the US keeps trying to rip the governors in places like Florida while kissing the ass of our New York governor. But you have more freedom in Florida today, just past their peak, than you do in New York today. And New York has 25,000 more dead people.
 
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sinnergy

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All I can say is if people don’t like this lockdown insanity, those of us in democracies need to vote these clowns out. Our media in the US keeps trying to rip the governors in places like Florida while kissing the ass of our New York governor. But you have more freedom in Florida today, just past their peak, than you do in New York today. And New York has 25,000 more dead people.
That’s how fast it went in New York, at such a rate a lock down is needed ..
a million packed city as New York.

but you keep hammering the anti lock down and how it’s better to do nothing ... but you weren’t in NY neither Italy or Spain , where they had to make the call and do something to stop the collapse of the health care system / hospitals.

what do you think the outcome in those places would be?

even the WHO calls to go all out to get this under control.
You think governments do this for fun?
 
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segasonic

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Infections, not deaths. Don’t forget infection counts are a product of the amount of testing being done - deaths are the most reliable metric, and indeed the only one that matter.
Not that fairy tale again. Deaths lag by 5-6 weeks.

Panic is never helpful. Neither is white-washing.
 
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sinnergy

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I just wonder for how much longer Dr. Fauci can keep ducking..
Why would he need to duck ? He is a world renowned scientist ? He discusses a lot with a Dutch scientist who did tests with corona viruses in the 90s. If governments listened, you guys wouldn’t be in a half year corona wave .

politicians should be the ones ducking .
 
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sinnergy

Member
Jun 16, 2007
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Not that fairy tale again. Deaths lag by 5-6 weeks.

Panic is never helpful. Neither is white-washing.
Yup, dead’s follow rising infections , it’s a really simple pattern, we have seen it in the us, Italy , Spain everywhere basically.