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Opinion Could war ever break out during a viral pandemic?

JordanN

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Not trying to jinx it, but it's something that's been on my mind for a while.



Since the whole world is practically infected at this point, it makes me wonder, what exactly happens with the rules of engagement?

Is it actually considered more risky for two nations to start fighting each other? Or would it actually be seen as beneficial, especially as emergency medical supplies are at their most vulnerable (thus, casualties run the risk of bankrupting either side)?

Again, I'm not actually calling for any new tensions, but are we living in more peaceful times because of the virus, or the most dangerous?



And yeah, an excuse to post the plague doctor soldier again.
 
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JordanN

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Didn't the Spanish flu happen concurrently with the first world war?
Technically, the war already began 4 years earlier (1914).

Although the Spanish Flu did exist, it also came in different waves. The worst came after the war had pretty much ended.

 
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JordanN

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autoduelist

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Yes, it could, assuming one nation has it roughly under control via authoritarian methods and 4x the population allowing it to field a large military while the other nation is struggling to regain footing.
 

matt404au

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Yes, it could, assuming one nation has it roughly under control via authoritarian methods and 4x the population allowing it to field a large military while the other nation is struggling to regain footing.
Exactly. China created the problem and will recover from it much more quickly than free Western nations due to their authoritarian government that can force its citizens to do whatever it wants. What incentive is there for them to change that? Assuming global manufacturing and trade remain largely the same at the end of this, China actually benefits economically from this pandemic. These are the conditions that lead to war. Unless Trump can pull a rabbit out of the hat and quickly decentralise manufacturing and hence economic power out of China, I see no other alternative. In that scenario, China would likely start a war anyway. I think we’re at the point of no return.
 
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Kenpachii

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Exactly. China created the problem and will recover from it much more quickly than free Western nations due to their authoritarian government that can force its citizens to do whatever it wants. What incentive is there for them to change that? Assuming global manufacturing and trade remain largely the same at the end of this, China actually benefits economically from this pandemic. These are the conditions that lead to war. Unless Trump can pull a rabbit out of the hat and quickly decentralise manufacturing and hence economic power out of China, I see no other alternative. In that scenario, China would likely start a war anyway. I think we’re at the point of no return.
There is no need to do quickly anything. At the end of the day china is used for its free slave wage. If western country's have enough of them they will move to india or other country's and prop them up.

China doesn't really have a position of power as of to speak. they try to push there influences over other country's by buying themselves in with a lot of company's so they can crash the markets if they get fucked over and get actually power projection. But after this debacle who's going to trust china even remotely?

What china should be worried about the west distancing them from there country which could mean there downfall pretty much over night.

That's the issue china has, they make nothing, they create nothing. they just produce what other country's order them to produce. Once that shifts to another country. the whole country is a dud.
 
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epicnemesis

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Yes, it could, assuming one nation has it roughly under control via authoritarian methods and 4x the population allowing it to field a large military while the other nation is struggling to regain footing.
Counterpoint - all it takes is a spray bottle in Beijing to bring it right back should they start shit.

I’m actually surprised and thankful we don’t see biological terrorism with this method.
 
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sahlberg

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Exactly. China created the problem and will recover from it much more quickly than free Western nations due to their authoritarian government that can force its citizens to do whatever it wants. What incentive is there for them to change that? Assuming global manufacturing and trade remain largely the same at the end of this, China actually benefits economically from this pandemic. These are the conditions that lead to war. Unless Trump can pull a rabbit out of the hat and quickly decentralise manufacturing and hence economic power out of China, I see no other alternative. In that scenario, China would likely start a war anyway. I think we’re at the point of no return.
Right now is a really good time to implement actual one china policy since the world is busy elsewhere.
6-9 months down the line when the rest of the world can look outwards again it will just be an established fact.

These opportunities to do so unchallenged do not come often. Will they take it?
 
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JordanN

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Counterpoint - all it takes is a spray bottle in Beijing to bring it right back should they start shit.

I’m actually surprised and thankful we don’t see biological terrorism with this method.
While not today, 600 years ago, the Mongols actually did use a form of biological warfare. Catapulting plague corpses at the enemy.


“The dying Tartars, stunned and stupefied by the immensity of the disaster brought about by the disease, and realizing that they had no hope of escape, lost interest in the siege. But they ordered corpses to be placed in catapults1 and lobbed into the city in the hope that the intolerable stench would kill everyone inside.2 What seemed like mountains of dead were thrown into the city, and the Christians could not hide or flee or escape from them, although they dumped as many of the bodies as they could in the sea. And soon the rotting corpses tainted the air and poisoned the water supply, and the stench was so overwhelming that hardly one in several thousand was in a position to flee the remains of the Tartar army. Moreover one infected man could carry the poison to others, and infect people and places with the disease by look alone. No one knew, or could discover, a means of defense.

“Thus almost everyone who had been in the East, or in the regions to the south and north, fell victim to sudden death after contracting this pestilential disease, as if struck by a lethal arrow which raised a tumor on their bodies. The scale of the mortality and the form which it took persuaded those who lived, weeping and lamenting, through the bitter events of 1346 to 1348—the Chinese, Indians, Persians, Medes, Kurds, Armenians, Cilicians, Georgians, Mesopotamians, Nubians, Ethiopians, Turks, Egyptians, Arabs, Saracens and Greeks (for almost all the East has been affected)—that the last judgement had come.
 
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matt404au

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There is no need to do quickly anything. At the end of the day china is used for its free slave wage. If western country's have enough of them they will move to india or other country's and prop them up.

China doesn't really have a position of power as of to speak. they try to push there influences over other country's by buying themselves in with a lot of company's so they can crash the markets if they get fucked over and get actually power projection. But after this debacle who's going to trust china even remotely?

What china should be worried about the west distancing them from there country which could mean there downfall pretty much over night.

That's the issue china has, they make nothing, they create nothing. they just produce what other country's order them to produce. Once that shifts to another country. the whole country is a dud.
We can only hope
 

sahlberg

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There is no need to do quickly anything. At the end of the day china is used for its free slave wage. If western country's have enough of them they will move to india or other country's and prop them up.

China doesn't really have a position of power as of to speak. they try to push there influences over other country's by buying themselves in with a lot of company's so they can crash the markets if they get fucked over and get actually power projection. But after this debacle who's going to trust china even remotely?

What china should be worried about the west distancing them from there country which could mean there downfall pretty much over night.

That's the issue china has, they make nothing, they create nothing. they just produce what other country's order them to produce. Once that shifts to another country. the whole country is a dud.
China has an opportunity of power right now.
If they were to suddenly annex Formosa and merge it back into mainland.
Who would care and who would do something about it?

Everyone else is preoccupied with domestic issues right now and for the forseeable future.
Who is going to step in and stop one type of chineese people from occupying and annexing breakaway territory of a different type of chineese people?
No-one, that is who. Just like no-one did anything else that writing "angry letters" to russia when they annexed crimea.
(I would do this if I was Xi. Reuniting china would make his legacy last a thousand years.)
 
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Kenpachii

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China has an opportunity of power right now.
If they were to suddenly annex Formosa and merge it back into mainland.
Who would care and who would do something about it?

Everyone else is preoccupied with domestic issues right now and for the forseeable future.
Who is going to step in and stop one type of chineese people from occupying and annexing breakaway territory of a different type of chineese people?
No-one, that is who. Just like no-one did anything else that writing "angry letters" to russia when they annexed crimea.
(I would do this if I was Xi. Reuniting china would make his legacy last a thousand years.)
And risk there markets and world position while they are at it? yea i don't think so. For a piece of land they don't even have use for? It could also start am major shit storm in their own country. The same reasons why they didn't steamroll hong kong and culled it the next day.

It would also validate the west to push biases and army's towards their boarders and make his relative stable country even more unstable.

They do not want to piss of the west even remotely.
 

Riven326

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Exactly. China created the problem and will recover from it much more quickly than free Western nations due to their authoritarian government that can force its citizens to do whatever it wants. What incentive is there for them to change that? Assuming global manufacturing and trade remain largely the same at the end of this, China actually benefits economically from this pandemic. These are the conditions that lead to war. Unless Trump can pull a rabbit out of the hat and quickly decentralise manufacturing and hence economic power out of China, I see no other alternative. In that scenario, China would likely start a war anyway. I think we’re at the point of no return.
Who do you think China will start a war with? The United States?
 

Woo-Fu

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The US government might start a civil war if they keep on this trajectory.
The only civil war in America's near-future is within the Democratic party. Once the progressives figure out how to wage war without increasing their carbon footprint the neoliberals are in trouble.
 

womfalcs3

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It's less likely given all major countries are spending 10-20% of their GDP on virus mitigation. Theyre mostly using debt to finance these stimulus/rescue packages.

But I'm more afraid of compounding natural disasters occurring over the next several months; like earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis.
 
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