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Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022

Skittzo0413

Member
Jan 8, 2016
9,666
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0
Couldn't fit in the title but Credit Suisse is apparently a big market analyst firm/Swiss bank.

http://www.barrons.com/articles/nintendo-lifted-to-outperform-by-credit-suisse-1505718700
Credit Suisse has upgraded Nintendo (7974.JP) to outperform from neutral as the broker now expects the Japanese video games maker to sell more of its Switch consoles over a longer sales cycle.

Credit Suisse now forecasts Nintendo to sell 130 million Switch consoles through to 2022, up from 70 million, as it says the device sells like a handheld console rather than a traditional console.

More at the link.

This uhh... seems quite optimistic to me, but I thought it was a very interesting turnaround in Nintendo's perception from a business perspective.

Downgrade my credit rating if old.
 

v1oz

Member
Apr 11, 2010
2,378
81
905
Great for a console. But no where near top selling iOS and android devices.
 

James Scott

Banned
May 24, 2014
11,385
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I think Switch is considerably more appealing than 3DS which suffered from a poor start. I think it'll do more and close to Wii, but probably not 30M more than Wii.
Maybe the Switch family of systems.
I don't see it selling like a portable device unless it is way cheaper.
They're selling what they can produce for now.
They can drop the price when supply improves.
They have actually essentially increased the price of the system going into the holidays
 
Sep 25, 2016
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If it outsells PS4 then prepare for extreme salt just like the Wii days.

It's already happening to an extent with Switch's early success. For some reason people like Nintendo to fail.
 

BitStyle

Unconfirmed Member
Aug 20, 2013
6,441
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If Nintendo plays their cards well enough, I could maybe see 100m, but 130m seems nuts.
 

Ashby

Member
Oct 3, 2015
5,111
1
0
That would put it in 3rd under the PS2 and DS in the all-time best selling video game device list.
 

Brofield

Member
May 21, 2012
3,418
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This is assuming they get the stock situation sorted asap.

Which to be fair, is getting better. I saw 4 Splatoon Switch bundles at Wal-Mart near me in a suburb east of Toronto
 
Jun 14, 2016
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Lol, I'd be pleasantly surprised to see it pass 85 million and I'd say that I'm actually very optimistic compared to others. 80(±)5 million is my bet.
 

Gitaroo

Member
Feb 7, 2008
2,571
8
870
In 3 years when ps5 and xbox two is out and every multiplatform games on switch looks like last last gen port running at 15fps? Nah.
 

ckfy63a

Member
Feb 15, 2016
190
0
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A place beyond seeing...
Err, this prediction is really high even for me, and I’ve been damn bullish on Nintendo’s prospects for this hardware. I think the realistic / slightly optimistic even prediction is 80M lifetime, which is just about Wii U and 3DS sales combined.
 

phanphare

Banned
Aug 21, 2013
22,647
4
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maybe so maybe not

I think the Switch will sell as much as Nintendo allows it to sell and by that I mean how long they continue the Switch line with revisions and upgrades before moving to a new gen proper. if they're going to keep on and upgrade it like the 3DS with eventual hardware boosts like the New 3DS line and it'll all count towards Switch sales then yeah, the sky's the limit.
 

unrealist

Member
Oct 14, 2013
888
0
305
Singapore
I don't see it selling like a portable device unless it is way cheaper.

Unfortunately .. due to inflation and the way gadgets work .. even 1k seems "cheap" to so many people nowadays (e.g. the recent phones) and even IAPs for some mobile apps seem to be sky high. It really seems people are willing to pay as long as a product is appealing to them now,
 

woodland

Member
Mar 30, 2013
1,667
0
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Credit Swiss is a big bank

*that's not as recognized as the other big banks in most of their departments, so take it with a grain of salt. At the same time they're looking to break into Asia wealth management so maybe their coverage has improved.
 

Platy

Member
Nov 26, 2009
37,140
6
880
Brazil
First reaction : ah 2022 is so far away that maybe if they keep for the retro gaming people and sell steady for like 10 years of obsolescence but it is hard.

second reaction : ....shit 2022 is 5 years from now =O
 

Memento

Member
Jun 11, 2015
5,079
4
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The optimism around Switch is getting insane LMAO

130m? Seriously? Right in front of my salad?
 

legend166

Member
Jan 31, 2007
19,429
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I'd consider 60 million a success, 80 million a raging success and anything above that to be incredible. 130 million? Pound for pound that would make it the most successful Nintendo device ever (I know in raw numbers it wouldn't reach the DS but it would blow by in terms of revenue and most likely unit software sales).

I think we'll get a better idea by the end of 2018 as to what the life time sales may end up being but 130 million seems wildly, wildly optimistic.
 
Aug 19, 2006
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Not sure exactly where they're measuring to and from, but it took the DS about 5 and a half years to hit 130m, are they saying Switch would get there slightly faster?
 

Skittzo0413

Member
Jan 8, 2016
9,666
3
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Yeah I mean, even if they continue to do everything right I just don't see it putting up those numbers in such a short amount of time. Even if they do manage to sell the rumored 18 million this FY, they'd have to average about 30 million a year for the next 4 years, which just seems wildly unrealistic.

These are the types of inflated expectations that might wind up hurting a little ways down the road.
 

JustenP88

I earned 100 Gamerscore™ for collecting 300 widgets and thereby created Trump's America
Aug 25, 2014
5,768
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Wii 2: Portable Boogaloo
 

ArcanineEX

Member
Feb 4, 2015
751
7
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Mainline Pokemon will be a thing on the Switch. I expect their to be a less expensive SKU around or in time for that as well.

Could happen.
 

big_z

Member
Oct 15, 2005
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it will do 50-60m over its lifespan if Nintendo can manage some must have software grabs and the overall lineup stays strong enough.
 

AmyS

Member
Aug 22, 2012
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I'm sure Nintendo Switch will become a family of systems.

The current Switch as it is, but eventually lower price.

Switch Go (smaller 5 inch screen, joycons built in)

Switch Pro (more powerful unit, fully BC like New 3DS, DSi, GameBoy Color, etc)

I'm thinking 80m to a max of 110m lifetime sales. Betting on the lower end of that.