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Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022

Neoxon

Junior Member
Jul 28, 2013
52,548
1
0
I'm as hopeful about the Switch's future as the next guy, but 130 million units sold in 5 years is a bit too optimistic.
 

Fushin

Member
Sep 22, 2011
784
0
0
I mean if Nintendo doesn't release a new handheld then the Switch just becomes handheld + console sales combined. 130 mil isn't that far of a stretch.
 

rekameohs

Banned
Feb 10, 2011
13,488
1
0
If Switch sales ever pass Wii, there will be some serious, serious crow to be had. Including by me.
 

reelbigtink

Member
Feb 6, 2012
2,518
0
0
Probably a bit too high but I'd be thrilled if it hit that number. Once Mario hits, then Animal Crossing, then Pokemon, then a price drop, I can see this thing hitting 100 mil.
 
Sep 30, 2014
2,827
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Cupertino
I love my switch but 130M by 2022 insane. 70M I could see, maybe even 100M if they can figure out how to avoid Apple stealing all their RAM

But 130M? Bruh... fingers crossed
 

aadiboy

Member
Oct 29, 2014
1,603
1
0
At the risk of getting quoted in a wall of shame post 5 years from now, I'm pretty sure the Switch won't get anywhere near that number. The 3DS needed a million different skus and 6 years to sell 70 million units. No way Switch is getting double that in 5 years.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,515
0
0
*that's not as recognized as the other big banks in most of their departments, so take it with a grain of salt. At the same time they're looking to break into Asia wealth management so maybe their coverage has improved.

Just wanted to point out, that all big banks give ratings on various stocks. That does not make them market research firm, tho. And also neither rating agencies.

One could also make the destinction between a regular back and investment bank only...
 

phanphare

Banned
Aug 21, 2013
22,647
4
415
Bit too optimistic, but I expect sales to spike once they kill off the god damn 3DS and focus all their studios on the Switch.

they already are focusing all of their studios on the Switch so you can go ahead and check that box

the 3DS lives on because it's amassed a huge library of games and the hardware is selling for anywhere between $70-$200 not to mention the massive install base
 

VariantX

Member
Jan 5, 2009
12,542
1
0
Columbia, SC
If Switch sales ever pass Wii, there will be some serious, serious crow to be had. Including by me.

How the fuck do you even follow that up if they did?? I swear all I can think to do is keep releasing upgraded versions of the switch every 3-4 years with full BC until that tech hits its limit which forces you to a different architecture
 

Liabe Brave

Member
Jan 23, 2007
4,509
4
1,140
Lawrenceville, GA
This is extremely bullish. Assume Switch will sell 15m by the end of 2017; this is much more than Nintendo is projecting, but let's say so. That leaves 115m in the next four years, or an average of almost 29m per year.

That average is better than the best year Wii ever had. Only two years of DS surpassed 29m, and its best four-year period didn't average this much. And if Switch hits that number on time, even a Wii-like crash afterwards wouldn't stop them from selling millions and millions more units

So in other words, Credit Suisse is predicting Switch will be the fastest-selling and best-selling video game console of all time. This isn't impossible, but it definitely doesn't match their reasoning that "it sells like a handheld console". They don't seem to understand the import of their own prediction, which makes it less likely to be well-founded in data.
 

Memento

Member
Jun 11, 2015
5,079
4
0
I mean if Nintendo doesn't release a new handheld then the Switch just becomes handheld + console sales combined. 130 mil isn't that far of a stretch.

Yes it is

Do you really think the handheld and console public are entirely different demographics? Come on
 

jayu26

Member
Feb 24, 2013
6,359
0
400
Brampton, ON
I mean if Nintendo doesn't release a new handheld then the Switch just becomes handheld + console sales combined. 130 mil isn't that far of a stretch.

That's not how math works. A person buys home console to play those games and buys handheld to play those games. That is two units of hardware sold to same person. That would not happen with Switch.
 
Aug 19, 2006
25,598
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I'm sure Nintendo Switch will become a family of systems.

The current Switch as it is, but eventually lower price.

Switch Go (smaller 5 inch screen, joycons built in)

Switch Pro (more powerful unit, fully BC like New 3DS, DSi, GameBoy Color, etc)

I'm thinking 80m to a max of 110m lifetime sales. Betting on the lower end of that.

Switch home 4k media hub.

I don't think it's impossible that they sell that many in that way, and they were selling vastly more units than that last decade if you combine DS and Wii sales together, I wouldn't want to bank on it though.
 

TAS

Member
Nov 21, 2005
954
58
1,435
If it outsells PS4 then prepare for extreme salt just like the Wii days.

It would actually be much worse considering the PS4 had like a 3+ year head start whereas PS3 and Wii launched 1 week apart. NeoGAF would turn into a Peruvian salt mine. ;)
 

King_Moc

Banned
Sep 19, 2010
11,648
8
810
England
Seems a touch optimistic, I must say.

Great for a console. But no where near top selling iOS and android devices.

Err...why would it be? A mobile phone is pretty much a necessity these days. A dedicated video game console will never be that.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Mar 12, 2012
4,336
16
680
I've thought it would be successful since day one, but that's way too optimistic for me. That's an extremely high number of units to sell each year and continue to do so for every year. I still think it will be successful but 130 million in 5 years is bonkers.
 

chaosblade

Unconfirmed Member
Jul 14, 2009
21,129
1
0
The original 70m number seems way more plausible to me.

But what do I know? I expected the thing to crash and burn like the Wii U due to the unclear messaging and price tag. Bring on 130m I guess.
 

Skittzo0413

Member
Jan 8, 2016
9,666
3
0
This is extremely bullish. Assume Switch will sell 15m by the end of 2017; this is much more than Nintendo is projecting, but let's say so. That leaves 115m in the next four years, or an average of almost 29m per year.

That average is better than the best year Wii ever had. Only two years of DS surpassed 29m, and its best four-year period didn't average this much. And if Switch hits that number on time, even a Wii-like crash afterwards wouldn't stop them from selling millions and millions more units

So in other words, Credit Suisse is predicting Switch will be the fastest-selling and best-selling video game console of all time. This isn't impossible, but it definitely doesn't match their reasoning that "it sells like a handheld console". They don't seem to understand the import of their own prediction, which makes it less likely to be well-founded in data.

Agreed, I'm not sure this logic holds up all that well. He's expecting the peak year to be 31m sales but then I'm not quite sure how the rest of the numbers add up to 130m. I guess it depends on the timeline- through 2022 would be 6 years and I suppose with a revision or two revitalizing sales it could get there.

I think it could get there eventually, depending entirely on Nintendo's own long term strategy with the product, but reaching this number by 2022 seems basically impossible. They need to reevaluate their expectations a bit.

At the very least this is interesting insomuch as it shows a drastic change in perception of Nintendo and their future viability, at least with this bank.
 

Indelible

Member
Oct 30, 2015
3,506
1
325
Canada
If Nintendo keeps up this momentum, I could see this happening. They are going to dominate this holiday season.
 

phanphare

Banned
Aug 21, 2013
22,647
4
415
Not unrealistic if the software is there. It's a damn sexy thing.

ahhhh believe in miracles
since ya came along

The original 70m number seems way more plausible to me.

But what do I know? I expected the thing to crash and burn like the Wii U due to the unclear messaging and price tag. Bring on 130m I guess.

why would the unclear messaging and price tag of the Wii U affect the Switch?
 

Lylo

Member
May 14, 2015
826
0
395
Too optimistic, i believe it'll sell 129m, maximum.

Now, serious, this will be an interesting thread to revisit in 2022...someone will have the final laughter.
 
Apr 29, 2017
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DEAD. ON. ARRIVAL.

In all seriousness this seems way over the top, at the absolute max I could see 20M a year and 15M or so in 2017 which would be 95M by 2022 but I don't think it'll be that high even, maybe 65M to 70M.
 

Prodigenius10

Member
Mar 23, 2017
73
0
0
Jamrock
The software would have to be KILLER and they'd have to get the price down.

To be fair, Nintendo has always delivered on the handheld front (I know they consider switch a console but let's be real). Also having Nintendo concentrate on one device should lead to some godly results software wise.
 

True Fire

Member
Oct 9, 2013
6,627
3
310
They would need to release a lot of SKUs to hit that number. Namely a $199 Switch Mini. Every kid on the playground needs to have one.
 
Jul 28, 2014
13,406
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Pffft. Alright guys. First you say they only sell 6
Million the first year now we're going that far for five years? Good job.
 
The Switch is and will continue to be a huge success, but 130m? Yeah, no. The only way it even has a prayer of getting that far is if they start pumping out even more variants than the 3DS, and even then it would seem pretty unlikely. I'm legitimately not sure how you could divine that number. The far cheaper 3DS will top out a bit over half of that when it's all said and done, so I don't expect "it's a handheld" to suddenly push it near OG DS territory.
 

Blobbers

Member
Mar 2, 2011
4,259
9
595
Nintendo does from time to time make consoles that sell a shitload in a relatively short period of time (i.e. not 10 years), but if this prediction came true it would literally make the Switch the 3rd best-selling console in the history of humane kind. That's a bold prediction half a year into a system's life
 

Neiteio

Member
Nov 10, 2007
54,436
6
0
Kimishima right now

 

NewGame

Banned
May 26, 2013
6,968
2
0
That's a big number.

If they come out with a cheaper Switch with a re-release of every Touch! Generation games developed for the more modern era then it might crack 100+ mil.