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Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022

Mameshiba

Neo Member
Jan 16, 2017
48
0
0
This is extremely bullish. Assume Switch will sell 15m by the end of 2017; this is much more than Nintendo is projecting, but let's say so. That leaves 115m in the next four years, or an average of almost 29m per year.

That average is better than the best year Wii ever had. Only two years of DS surpassed 29m, and its best four-year period didn't average this much. And if Switch hits that number on time, even a Wii-like crash afterwards wouldn't stop them from selling millions and millions more units

So in other words, Credit Suisse is predicting Switch will be the fastest-selling and best-selling video game console of all time. This isn't impossible, but it definitely doesn't match their reasoning that "it sells like a handheld console". They don't seem to understand the import of their own prediction, which makes it less likely to be well-founded in data.

I think it means until the end of 2022, which would be 5 years. So 23m on average. Still a high prediction, basically on par with the DS.
 

Neiteio

Member
Nov 10, 2007
54,436
6
0
They know what's coming


 

Skittzo0413

Member
Jan 8, 2016
9,666
3
0
The other interesting part of the article cited the MOBA that's insanely popular in China (on mobile now, can't remember the name) as a potential driver for these sales. I wonder if this analyst is expecting a much bigger Nintendo presence in China with the Switch.

the Wii never had a mainline pokemon game nor was it a hybrid device meant to appeal to both japanese and western markets

Yeah the Wii dropped off massively in Japan fairly quickly IIRC, and the Switch has the potential to do 3DS numbers (possibly even DS numbers after a price cut or revision) there assuming there's enough stock.
 

phanphare

Banned
Aug 21, 2013
22,647
4
415
Yeah, but Wii had something far more greater than Pokémon.

ok

it still lacked a mainline pokemon game, one of the best selling video game franchises of all time, which the Switch will receive

Yeah the Wii dropped off massively in Japan fairly quickly IIRC, and the Switch has the potential to do 3DS numbers (possibly even DS numbers after a price cut or revision) there assuming there's enough stock.

pretty much. the Switch has the potential to do 3DS numbers in Japan and Wii numbers in the west while also having more staying power than the Wii
 

Liabe Brave

Member
Jan 23, 2007
4,509
4
1,140
Lawrenceville, GA
Agreed, I'm not sure this logic holds up all that well. He's expecting the peak year to be 31m sales but then I'm not quite sure how the rest of the numbers add up to 130m. I guess it depends on the timeline- through 2022 would be 6 years and I suppose with a revision or two revitalizing sales it could get there.
I think it means until the end of 2022, which would be 5 years. So 23m on average. Still a high prediction, basically on par with the DS.
The OP definitely says "to 2022", but perhaps there was a mixup somewhere. A 130m target by the end of 2022 is much more doable (though still bullish).

I predicted 200M LTD last month. Increasingly looking like I'll be right.
No, your prediction looks just like it always has. There is not actually any new sales data; other people's predictions are not evidence of future performance. In addition, you chose a number rounded to a nearest hundred. This is strong prima facie evidence that you didn't base your estimate on much, if any, data. Even if the results did end up matching what you said, your statement will never have been anything but arbitrary gut feeling.
 

onipex

Member
Jan 3, 2008
3,295
15
1,140
It can do that and more. I can see somw homes having more then one especially when thebprice drops.

Nintendo pulled the gameboy,Wii,and DS out of nowhere and the Switch will fit more with those 3 after its all said and done.
 

sleepnaught

Member
Jan 12, 2017
1,078
332
400
That would be really great to see, but I'd be surprised if it was half that. Either way, it'll sell a megaton more than Wii U. I can't wait to see what great games come to Switch, especially ones the install base hits the double digits.
 

Schnozberry

Member
Nov 9, 2012
4,859
103
620
They'll have to hit $249 or below and resolve their supply issues to have any hope of that. There's pretty good data on the sweet spot for impulse buys, and $249 seems to be the sweet spot.
 

chaosblade

Unconfirmed Member
Jul 14, 2009
21,129
1
0
What did you find unclear?

I feel like the bungled the whole "home console you take on the go" thing. It's clearly a portable that plugs into the TV, but they didn't want to kill the 3DS yet so they had to get weird with the marketing. Looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, is anatomically a duck when dissected, but Nintendo doesn't call it a duck (even though they make it look like one in the vast majority of their marketing).

But my opinion is wrong and doesn't really matter.
 
Nov 16, 2007
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120-130 million is about where I'm at right now for my prediction, with it having at least a puncher's chance of surpassing the DS and PS2. Wii sales are the floor.
 

Toxi

Banned
May 29, 2013
41,538
1
0
This seems a bit optimistic considering we're less than a year in and it's selling nowhere near the rate it would need to reach that number.
 

Fukuzatsu

Member
Aug 29, 2015
528
1
0
Fukuoka, Japan
The other interesting part of the article cited the MOBA that's insanely popular in China (on mobile now, can't remember the name) as a potential driver for these sales. I wonder if this analyst is expecting a much bigger Nintendo presence in China with the Switch.

Gonna assume you mean Arena of Valor / Honour of Kings, but it's gonna take some serious marketing to make that blow, and I doubt it's for the Chinese market (since the Chinese version has completely different heroes and is firmly tied to phones).

If that game is going to pull decent numbers in any capacity, it'll be due to some combination of marketing, uniqueness within the Switch library, and improved online infrastructure.
 

phanphare

Banned
Aug 21, 2013
22,647
4
415
I feel like the bungled the whole "home console you take on the go" thing. It's clearly a portable that plugs into the TV, but they didn't want to kill the 3DS yet so they had to get weird with the marketing. Looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, is anatomically a duck when dissected, but Nintendo doesn't call it a duck.

I think the issue here is that you think the market at large pays attention to pr from reggie that is reported in online gaming outlets

most people just saw the october reveal and the pre release commercials which were quite clear as to what the hardware is, does, and plays
 

OrbitalBeard

Member
Jun 2, 2013
24,901
8
0
130 is absolutely possible, but Nintendo is going to have to do pretty much everything right and then some in order for it to happen.

I don't see it, but hey, I'd love to be wrong. I think 100 million is far more likely. And people act like 100 million is a crazy number, because that's what Wii sold, but Nintendo dropped Wii like a bad habit after four years. Skyward Sword was the only meaningful title released after 2010. Switch has a very good shot at that number over a longer period of time.
 

neoanarch

Member
Dec 11, 2005
5,240
0
0
Nintendo/Nvidia are just gonna stick a better chip inside the switch upgrade. I don't see them going against the public impulse to upgrade sooner rather than later. Especially on a portable device.
 

Skittzo0413

Member
Jan 8, 2016
9,666
3
0
I feel like the bungled the whole "home console you take on the go" thing. It's clearly a portable that plugs into the TV, but they didn't want to kill the 3DS yet so they had to get weird with the marketing. Looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, is anatomically a duck when dissected, but Nintendo doesn't call it a duck.

But my opinion is wrong and doesn't really matter.

It plays home console games and sells at home console prices, so it's more effective marketing to call it a home console you can take on the go than an expensive portable that plays more expensive games.
 

xealo

Member
Dec 11, 2015
976
0
290
In 3 years when ps5 and xbox two is out and every multiplatform games on switch looks like last last gen port running at 15fps? Nah.
Nintendo is no stranger to hardware refreshes within the same generation on handhelds. If that's the case we may see something like the New 3ds but for switch.
 

KojiKnight

Member
May 24, 2012
20,243
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This seems a little over the top... If Nintendo releases upgraded models every 2-3 years, I could see it hitting 130m over the course of 7-8 years.
 
Mar 20, 2014
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130 mil is quite the stretch, but I can see it happening if Nintendo can manage at least 3 major must have first party games each year. If they can somehow manage to also get more major 3rd party games to the switch each year, then it makes it even more possible.

But currently I think 60+ mil is far more plausible.
 
ok

it still lacked a mainline pokemon game, one of the best selling video game franchises of all time, which the Switch will receive

The 3DS will have had 4 major Pokémon releases. It has sold literally 1/2 of 130 million units in a longer amount of time than is being predicted here.

Even if you assume that there was 0 overlap between the Wii market and the Pokémon audience (which is absurd) and sloppily just add the two together, you're looking at less than 120 million. And that's before factoring in that substantial factors in the Wii's success do not apply to the Switch*, the greater price of the console compared to past Nintendo handhelds, and the general decline of the handheld market.

*(currently the Switch's success is overwhelmingly built on the back of the traditional core market, with far fewer female, < 18-year-old, and > 45-year old players than the Switch and original DS enjoyed)

I by no means doubt the continued success of the Switch going forward. But 130 million is absolutely absurd.
 
Oct 19, 2013
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it'd be really weird if Nintendo moved on from the Switch in 2019 so I don't see this happening

You think that when PS5 and Xbox Two are both out with like 12 Tflop each Nintendo is still going to be tied to a machine with 200 Gflop? Third party ports will become a pure impossibility at that point.
 

phanphare

Banned
Aug 21, 2013
22,647
4
415
The 3DS will have had 4 major Pokémon releases. It has sold literally 1/2 of 130 million units in a longer amount of time than is being predicted here.

Even if you assume that there was 0 overlap between the Wii market and the Pokémon audience (which is absurd) and sloppily just add the two together, you're looking at less than 120 million. And that's before factoring in that substantial factors in the Wii's success do not apply to the Switch (currently the Switch's success is overwhelmingly built on the back of the traditional core market, with far fewer female, < 18-year-old, and > 45-year old players than the Switch and original DS enjoyed.

I by no means doubt the continued success of the Switch going forward. But 130 million is absolutely absurd.

the 3DS was extremely popular in Japan and less so in North America

the Switch is popular in both markets

You think that when PS5 and Xbox Two are both out with like 12 Tflop each Nintendo is still going to be tied to a machine with 200 Gflop? Third party ports will become a pure impossibility at that point.

what does any of that have to do with the post I was replying to or my reply?
 

TimeEffect

Member
Mar 17, 2010
27,951
0
915
Need to see more games.

Feel like zelda really helped as a killer app. Whats after Mario btw? Wonder what the library will look like 2 years from now.

A revision would also help a lot
 

King_Moc

Banned
Sep 19, 2010
11,648
8
810
England
Nintendo is no stranger to hardware refreshes within the same generation on handhelds. If that's the case we may see something like the New 3ds but for switch.

Yep, it's entirely possible. Tegra X2 exists now, and the deal with Nvidia is supposedly quite long term.
 
May 8, 2015
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No, your prediction looks just like it always has. There is not actually any new sales data; other people's predictions are not evidence of future performance. In addition, you chose a number rounded to a nearest hundred. This is strong prima facie evidence that you didn't base your estimate on much, if any, data. Even if the results did end up matching what you said, your statement will never have been anything but arbitrary gut feeling.

Wow, are you really going to sit there and act as if someone correctly predicting 200M when most were saying it would sell about 60M tops is "dumb luck?" It's not a gut feeling, it's a highly educated guess.
 

Bubba_Sparks

Member
Mar 11, 2015
1,520
0
0
Kingston, Ontario, Canada
stickfiguredrawinggraph.img

Seriously though, I love my Switch. I can't say how many it will sell, but so far things are going great for them.

I hope that the Switch is a monster success so Sony and Microsoft go portable too

What I hope for is that at the end of PlayStation 4's life, we get a PlayStation 4 Portable. Imagine, the entire PS4 library in portable form!
 

GregLombardi

Member
Dec 5, 2008
6,092
1
0
I don't know about the prediction regarding how many Switches will sell, though I think the system will do very well for years to come. That said...the decision on the rating is quite sound.
 
Oct 19, 2013
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what does any of that have to do with the post I was replying to or my reply?

Seems like a reason Nintendo would want to move on from the switch sooner than you are thinking? I'm not sure what their long term strategy is, but I don't see how the Switch can be their main console for that long.
 

Jigorath

Banned
Aug 22, 2013
12,902
4
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twitter.com
You think that when PS5 and Xbox Two are both out with like 12 Tflop each Nintendo is still going to be tied to a machine with 200 Gflop? Third party ports will become a pure impossibility at that point.

That's the kicker isn't it? What's Nintendo going to do when their hardware inevitably becomes outdated? Consumers tend to move on when that sort of thing happens. They'll probably try a n3DS type upgrade but will that be enough?

These sorts of mysteries are why it's kind of silly to do lifetime sales predictions for a system just a few months into its lifespan. I guess it's possible it can hit PS2 numbers (150m+), it's also possible it stalls out around 3DS numbers (80m). I'm still not sure where the PS4 will land (100m? 120m?) and we're nearly 4 years into its lifespan.
 

phanphare

Banned
Aug 21, 2013
22,647
4
415
Seems like a reason Nintendo would want to move on from the switch sooner than you are thinking? I'm not sure what their long term strategy is, but I don't see how the Switch can be their main console for that long.

even the Wii U lasted for more than 2 years lol, it is a certainty that the Switch will live beyond 2019

also Nintendo is no stranger to mid gen hardware refreshes
 

Kimawolf

Member
Sep 15, 2012
6,164
7
765
Missouri
sure, if they sell Switch basic (current switch) while selling the Switch 2/pro (2-3 times current switch power). I can see that happening definitely. and work a low end and high end price point low end 99-149 high end 299 still it will sell gangbusters.
 

Fou-Lu

Member
Mar 25, 2010
10,099
4
0
Canada
I really don't think we'll see 130m by 2022, that is waaaay too soon, but I do think the Switch is going to sell a lot more than most people are expecting by the end of its life. Having mainline Zelda, Mario, Pokemon, Kirby, Fire Emblem, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing all on the same device is going to be insane and make for a ridiculously wide and deep line up.
 
Oct 19, 2013
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even the Wii U lasted for more than 2 years lol, it is a certainty that the Switch will live beyond 2019

also Nintendo is no stranger to mid gen hardware refreshes

That's true, but the Wii u was on par with the PS3 and 360 when it released. Switch is already substantially weaker than the current gen, let alone the pro and one x. It's just a weird landscape imo that I'm not sure compares to the past.
 
Nov 16, 2007
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Based on what?

Current sales and momentum, and the fact that it doesn't even have Pokemon, Animal Crossing or Smash yet.

The Switch is the hot new thing that it selling out every single shipment. I'd find it incredibly hard to see it falling behind the Wii by the end of its life.