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December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
1,590
ITT, predict for the NPD December 2015 retail period (November 28, 2015-January 2, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, January 12th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: November 29, 2015-January 2, 2016 (5 weeks, November was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, January 14th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 600K       [XB1] 600 thousand
[XB1] 600,000    [XB1] 600.000
[XB1] 600000     [XB1] - 600000


Potential hardware impacting events in December:
Summary
It's Christmas shopping! - 26 days
PS4 Battlefront/UC bundles $50 price cut to $299 Dec. 6-19 (announced Dec. 1) - 14 days
XB1 $50 price cut (making entry price $299) Dec. 9-26 - 18 days


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

November's Results
1. PS4 - 1.54m
2. XB1 - 1.30m
3. 3DS - 350K
4. WIU - 240K

November 2014 NPD thread
December 2014 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
1
0
Ipoh, Malaysia
[PS4] 1638K
[XB1] 1365K
[3DS] 425K
[WIU] 320K

Still subject to change, but I decided to fill in the numbers as reserving seems to be taken negatively now.
 

orochi91

Member
Jan 10, 2014
12,424
0
550
[3DS] 320K
[PS4] 1650K
[WIU] 280K
[XB1] 1250K

I expect BF Bundle will have given the PS4 a substantial win this month.
 

jjonez18

Member
Nov 23, 2014
1,605
0
0
United States of America
[PS4] 1650k
[XB1] 1450k
[3DS] 500k
[WIIU] 400k

Apparently PS4 did just fine. 35.9m sold through. XB1 should at least outdo its November 2015. Especially with solid software, bundles, and promotional pricing. Nintendo gets the typical December uptick.

Software Top 10

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III
2) Star War: Battlefront
3) Madden 16
4) Fallout 4
5) NBA 2K16
6) Rainbow Six
7) FIFA 16
8) Just Cause
9) Just Dance 2016
10) MineCraft

Annual Top 10

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops
2) Madden 16
3) Fallout 4
4) Star Wars
5) NBA 2K16
6) Batman Arkham Knight
7) Halo 5
8) Grand Theft Auto
9) FIFA 16
10) Metal Gear Solid
 
Mar 17, 2014
10,384
0
0
This is gonna be good. Gonna edit later when we get (hopefully) some final insight from retail GAF


[PS4] 1660K
[XB1] 1320K
[3DS] 410K
[WIU] 320K
 

Chris1

Member
Jun 3, 2014
7,706
1
0
XB1 price drop was 9th-26th..I think the OP should be updated to reflect that rather than just be lumped into "$299 matching deals around the same time". PS4 being $50 less than the XB1 for 3 days, and XB1 $50 less for the Christmas week. Neither of those are anything to sneeze at.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
1,590
Very useful post by Welfare from the Nov. NPD thread discussing Nov -> Dec transitions in the last few years.

Welfare said:
With this talk about December, I've decided to look back a bit (2010) to see just how much the difference between November and December has shrunk. This comparison is focusing on the weekly average, which is 4 for November and 5 for December.

2010

Xbox 360 November: 1370K / 4 = 342,500
Xbox 360 December: 1860K / 5 = 372,000

Weekly average up 9%

PS3 November: 530K / 4 = 132,500
PS3 December: 1210K / 5 = 242,000

Weekly average up 83%

Wii November: 1270K / 4 = 317,500
Wii December: 2360K / 5 = 472,000

Weekly average up 49%

So far so good. Even with an extra week, the average is better compared to November's 4 weeks.

However... this won't be the case for many consoles in the next few years.

2011

Xbox 360 November: 1700K / 4 = 425,000
Xbox 360 December: 1700K / 5 = 340,000

Weekly average down 20%

PS3 November: 900K / 4 = 225,000
PS3 December: 950K / 5 = 190,000

Weekly average down 16%

Wii November: 860K / 4 = 215,000
Wii December: 1060K / 5 = 212,000

Weekly average down 1%

2012

Xbox 360 November: 1260K / 4 = 315,000
Xbox 360 December: 1400K / 5 = 280,000

Weekly average down 11%

PS3 November: 750K / 4 = 187,500
PS3 December: 635K / 5 = 127,000

Weekly average down 32%

Wii November: 420K / 4 = 105,000
Wii December: 475K / 5 = 95,000

Weekly average down 10%

Wii U had one week in November, so a comparison is moot.

2013 (Decided against having Xbox One and PS4 here as they were not available for an entire 4 weeks in November)

Xbox 360 November: 647K / 4 = 161,750
Xbox 360 December: 643K / 5 = 128,600

Weekly average down 20%

PS3 November: 407K / 4 = 101,750
PS3 December: 299K / 5 = 59,800

Weekly average down 41%

Wii November: 68K / 4 = 17,000
Wii December: 150K / 5 = 30,000

Weekly average up 76%

Wii U November: 223K / 4 = 55,750
Wii U December: 481K / 5 = 96,200

Weekly average up 73%

2014

Xbox 360 November: 310K / 4 = 77,500
Xbox 360 December: 305K / 5 = 61,600

Weekly average down 21%

Xbox One November: 1231K / 4 = 307,750
Xbox One December: 1300K / 5 = 260,000

Weekly average down 14%

PS3 November: 89K / 4 = 22,250
PS3 December: 176K / 5 = 35,200

Weekly average up 58%

PS4 November: 831K / 4 = 207,750
PS4 December: 1070K / 5 = 214,000

Weekly average up 3%

Wii DATA INCOMPLETE

Wii U November: 240K / 4 = 60,000
Wii U December: 579K / 5 = 115,800

Weekly average up 93%

Starting in 2011, on average, less consoles were sold per week in December compared to November, and in some cases, December as an entire month is actually lower than November.

With both the Xbox One and PS4 being available for $299 for 3 weeks and 2 weeks respectively, it'll be interesting to see how December performs.

XB1 price drop was 9th-26th.

Thanks! Didn't know there were precise days on the XB1 pricing. (^_^)
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
I'm really curious whether overall GAF Hardware predictions will have December up compared to November or down
 

Tratorn

Member
Sep 2, 2011
2,362
1
0
[PS4] 1666k
[XB1] 1333k
[3DS] 398k
[WIIU] 287k

I'm really curious whether overall GAF Hardware predictions will have December up compared to November or down

Probably this time many will overestimate PS4 + One because most predictions were too pessimistic last month, and they don't want to let that happen again. :p
 

jbluzb

Member
Jul 8, 2015
447
1
0
Philippines
[3DS] 90,000
[PS4] 1,500,000
[WIU] 100,000
[XB1] 750,000

I feel ps4 will take the us npd by storm and xbox one will sell half. Meanwhile, nintendo can smile with 100,000 sales.
 
Aug 7, 2015
197
0
0
[3DS] 275K
[PS4] 1450K
[WIU] 170K
[XB1] 1050K

This will likely change but ballpark feels about right with the current info.
 

Stilton Disco

Member
Aug 22, 2014
7,041
7,857
870
England
[3DS] 369k
[PS4] 1752k
[WIU] 257k
[XB1] 1257k

Ok, and this time I'm just going to stick with my gut feeling, after last month when I ended up well off compared to when I started, due to foolishly listening to reasonable, well thought out theories!
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
0
0
Italy
twitter.com
Wanna post again this from the last thread:

TOP 20 BIGGER DECEMBERS EVER SINCE 2000
1) Wii - 3,810,000 ( December 2009)
2) DS - 3,310,000 (December 2009)
3) DS - 3,040,000 (December 2008)
4) PS2 - 2,733,000 (December 2002)
5) DS - 2,500,000 ( December 2010)
6) DS - 2,470,000 (December 2007)
7) Wii - 2,360,000 (December 2010)
8) GBA - 2,316,000 (December 2003)
9) GBA - 2,215,000 (December 2002)
10) Wii - 2,150,000 (December 2008)
11) GBA - 2,060,000 (December 2004)
12) PS2 - 1,971,000 (December 2001)
13) PS2 - 1,970,000 (December 2003)
14) 360 - 1,860,000 (December 2010)
15) 360 - 1,700,000 (December 2011)
16) 3DS - 1,650,000 (December 2011)
17) GBA - 1,618,000 (December 2001)
18) DS - 1,600,000 (December 2006)
19) PS2 - 1,500,000 (December 2005)
20) 360 - 1,440,000 (December 2008)


TOP 20 BIGGER DECEMBERS SINCE 2000 ( HOME ONLY )
1) Wii - 3,810,000 ( December 2009)
2) PS2 - 2,733,000 (December 2002)
3) Wii - 2,360,000 (December 2010)
4) Wii - 2,150,000 (December 2008)
5) PS2 - 1,971,000 (December 2001)
6) PS2 - 1,970,000 (December 2003)
7) 360 - 1,860,000 (December 2010)
8) 360 - 1,700,000 (December 2011)
9) PS2 - 1,500,000 (December 2005)
10) 360 - 1,440,000 (December 2008)
11) PS2 - 1,400,000 (December 2006)
12) 360 - 1,400,000 (December 2012)
13) PS3 - 1,360,000 (December 2009)
14) WII - 1,350,000 (December 2007)
15) 360 - 1,310,000 (December 2009)
16) XB1 - 1,290,000 (December 2014)
17) PS3 - 1,210,000 (December 2010)
18) GC - 1,163,000 (December 2003)
19) XBOX - 1,122,000 (December 2003)
20) PS2 - 1,100,000 (December 2007)


TOP 20 BIGGER DECEMBERS SINCE 2000 (HANDHELDS ONLY)
1) DS - 3,310,000 (December 2009)
2) DS - 3,040,000 (December 2008)
3) DS - 2,500,000 ( December 2010)
4) DS - 2,470,000 (December 2007)
5) GBA - 2,316,000 (December 2003)
6) GBA - 2,215,000 (December 2002)
7) GBA - 2,060,000 (December 2004)
8) 3DS - 1,650,000 (December 2011)
9) GBA - 1,618,000 (December 2001)
10) DS - 1,600,000 (December 2006)
11) 3DS - 1,250,000 (December 2012)
12) GBA - 1,213,000 (December 2005)
13) PSP - 1,120,000 (December 2005)
14) 3DS - 1,100,000 (December 2013)
15) DS - 1,070,000 (December 2005)
16) PSP - 1,060,000 (December 2007)
17) PSP - 1,020,000 (December 2008)
18) PSP - 953,000 (December 2006)
19) GBA - 851,000 (December 2006)
20) 3DS - 810,000 (December 2014)
 

DieH@rd

Banned
Dec 9, 2006
35,045
4
0
/reserving a spot
This month will be interesting™


[PS4] 1780K
[XB1] 1410K
[3DS] 380K
[WIIU] 350K
 

harrisk954

Member
Jul 11, 2014
853
6
360
Naples, Florida
[PS4] 1720k
[XB1] 1350k
[3DS] 400k
[WIIU] 305k

Substantially upped my prediction based upon the new info regarding 35.9 million PS4s sold WW in the last month and a half, as well as MS's recent press release! Honestly, if the PS4 has sold through almost 6 million units WW since mid-November, the NPD numbers are going to HUGE this month even though NPD is US only.