Being that the PS5 all digital is "RUMORED" to be $399, Lockhart has to be real. And "if" that PS5 AD is real, then Lockhart should cost $299. There's no way it can be a dollar over that amount.
PS5 Digital @ $399, IMO, makes $299 Lockhart/Series S impossible. It'd have to be even lower. That's probably where the $199 rumor came from, though $249 could also work.
@ $299, that puts Lockhart/Series S at a bad value proposition considering what an extra $100 buys in a PS5 Digital, and I'd expect MS are aware of this if Lockhart/Series S is in fact real. So I can see Series S/Series X in one of the following pricing scenarios:
S1: $249 Series S, $499 Series X. More favorable for Series S, but less favorable for Series X. Although at this price Series X would probably be making a small profit.
S2: $249 Series S, $449 Series X: Very favorable position for both. Pretty much best scenario. If Series S is built smart they would not be losing too much on it at this price; they would lose a bit on Series X at this price but not bleeding money whatsoever. Peripheral sales, game sales and sub sales could make up the losses.
Some slight Gamepass bonus could maybe be thrown in there, maybe something like a free trail for a couple weeks or a month, or some way to redeem credit to a digital game purchase. $449 Series X places it perfectly between PS5 Digital and PS5 Disc, providing benefit of physical media on XSX for just $50 more, and an equal (if not better) value proposition to PS5 Disc for $50 cheaper.
S3: $199 Series S, $449 Series X: Maybe
too optimistic. They would
definitely be losing money on Series S here, probably bleeding cash on it at this MSRP. Therefore I doubt Series X would hit $449.
S4: $199 Series S, $499 Series X: More probable than the third scenario, but not as good as S1 or especially S2.. I could see MS throwing in some Gamepass bundle with Series X here, but not Series S.
S5: $299 Series S, $499 Series X: Probably
worst scenario. Series S would probably either barely break even or make a slight profit, but then that might mean not throwing in a Gamepass deal with it so that lowers value proposition compared to PS5 Digital. Series X can't rely on Series S to cover against PS5 Digital as well, puts Series X in a tougher bind but perhaps throw in Gamepass to sweeten the pot.