How are they going to shift 20 million consoles in the first year knowing that?
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Digitimes: Supply chain players gear up for new Nintendo console
- Thread starter DieH@rd
- Start date
How are they going to shift 20 million consoles in the first year knowing that?
TwiztidElf
Member
Get SplaTWOn (Spla2n) in the 'launch window' and anythings possible.
I don't really think AMD has a capable ARM chip right now and I can't see Nintendo switching to x86.
Even WIi U managed to sell ~3M in the first 2 months at $350 pricepoint. But then the software drought came.
AMD can use basic ARM design and create APU/SoC from any modules Nintendo wishes to use. Custom AMD ARM chips are announced for 2016-2017, but I don't think Nintendo will need them. They are currently using crappy udnerclocked arm11, so anything modern will give them insane performance increase.
Seth Enosh
Member
Clearly they're going to do a Saturn style surprise launch at e3. "And it will be available....now!"
20 million in the first year seems unrealistic. They've never had a console do those numbers, not even the Wii or DS, right?
Duxxy3
Member
A lot of those were returned after christmas as scalpers couldn't make a profit.
Its interesting because the actual comments seem to suggest if it is Nintendo it is not the usual deal Nintendo does where Nintendo licenses a design then makes tweaks to fit their need and is instead a situation where AMD is making something to order.
Cosmonaut X
Member
If Nintendo are looking at replacing the GameCube/Wii/Wii U modified PPC designs wholesale - and with 15 years or so of use, it's served them well - then maybe they're prepared to take a one-time hit on something bleeding-edge with the plan to make it the centre of their NX platform for the next 10 years?
MikeE21286
Member
So lets assume that Nintendo is not batshit insane for a second with this 20 million number....
That would seemingly have to indicate something that is low-priced.
Thinking like less than $150?
That would seemingly have to indicate something that is low-priced.
Thinking like less than $150?
Lilalaunebaer
Member
If the 20 million shipping number is supposed to be true, it´s probably for both the handheld and home console. Launched within 3-6 months of each other.
The order of release will be decided by the color of your shirt.
The order of release will be decided by the color of your shirt.
SerTapTap
Member
Not sure even $100 would be a ticket to a free >20m sales. Who's going to buy it? If it's portable and weaker than even a New 3DS I can't see tons of gamers latching on to it, and casuals sure as fuck won't buy a second device to shove in their pocket. If it's a console and it's $100 it's going to be way weaker than even Wii U and what console owner is going to buy that? Unless they're planning to subsidize (and take >$100 loss on each of 20 million units...right) I can't see them putting out particularly attractive hardware at that price.
If $100 was a ticket to success we'd all own Ouyas. I just can't believe 20m in a year is a reasonable pre-launch estimate period unless this is way more than one product. Maybe console + accessories + side stuff like QOL, combined.
Well they did it with the Wii with a great idea and a ton of good luck but I really don't see it happening again and success like that isn't something you bank on--even with the Wii they didn't pretend to know it'd sell millions out of the gate either, hence supply issues.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Everyone is blowing off the console idea, but do not be surprised at all if they go for a super cheap console this time around.
If they can release a $199 console (which, without the power-draining tablet controller, would be noticeably more powerful than Wii U in late 2016), that hits instant impulse-buy territory and could be a great secondary console, especially if the library works with the handheld.
If they can release a $199 console (which, without the power-draining tablet controller, would be noticeably more powerful than Wii U in late 2016), that hits instant impulse-buy territory and could be a great secondary console, especially if the library works with the handheld.
I can see them going for a $199-250 handheld console that can turn off its screen and beam its gameplay to HDTV. That way they can serve everyone with a single device.
Americanmushroom
Banned
Probably a hybrid. Portable console + hdmi stick to play on the tv
Cosmonaut X
Member
Nope. Every single hint from Nintendo is pointing to multiple hardware configs based around a single software platform/ecosystem. Unified development, unified architecture and multiple form factors/power levels. No hybrid console/handheld, but (at least) two distinct devices sharing a library and OS/ecosystem is my bet.
Source pls
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
The only way I see this happening is if they plan to launch in several regions simultaneously and are also amazingly confident the product will fly off of shelves.
Let's see, if the launched in North America, Japan, and Europe at the same time even then 20 mill would be too high. Maybe China and/or Korea as well?
Let's see, if the launched in North America, Japan, and Europe at the same time even then 20 mill would be too high. Maybe China and/or Korea as well?
Mithos
Member
Only if hooking it up to a TV magically makes it more powerful, if not they will not serve everyone with a single device.
They're going to quote Iwata, which is funny, because he doesn't even say definitively that it won't be a hybrid, and everything he says is suspect anyway.
If he didn't detail the alternative about what it'd be, then you may have a point.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
Indeed. I see them following the Apple model of two systems (iPhone / iPad in the Apple example) that share the same OS and games (apps).
They could be intending to launch 2 separate devices at the same time; that could be why they're making 20 mill as well.
Not the same guy/girl, but Iwata has been saying he wants to create an iOS like solution for a while iirc where games can easily be ported/work across devices, even going as far to say that's why they haven't gone beyond 2 specific form factors. Plus, Reggie and Tanabe have implied/said NX will be a console, but 20 million units produced is an insane number for a console. Replacing both 3DS and Wii U's product line-ups with a crossover device is the only rational way 20 million would make ANY sense.\
At this point though it's just speculation based on teases by Nintendo's higher ups because they obviously haven't revealed what their plan, and they haven't been any leaks.
Cosmonaut X
Member
TBH, we have a choice between taking what Nintendo have done, and what he's said publicly and realising that plans may change, but treating it as our best hint as to future hardware, and completely ignoring what he's said to investors and pulling something out of our arses.
As far as I'm concerned, the way Nintendo have behaved with regard to unifying development, his talk of hardware brothers and being able to offer multiple devices etc. points in one direction. Perhaps - as with mobile, which I expect will be your point here - those plans will change, but it seems silly to ignore public comments on that basis alone.
Iwata's many, many comments about the subject? You can find those as far back as early 2014 on Nintendo's IR site.
Iwata always talked about the next handheld and console (after 3DS/Wii U), the two new machines becoming "brothers", his comments about Apple's OS and how it works on multiple form factors...
He says they don't know what it will be yet and the market will dictate, but they're leaning towards both.
The whole quote parses to nothing.
You are paraphrasing to make a point. Nobody implied NX is a (home) console. What Iwata says is of no concern to everyone because he tends to bend the truth.
We shall see.
Cosmonaut X
Member
Or you can just use logic.There no reason to do a hybrid when they can just do a vita/vitatv with minimal effort.
ReBurn
Gold Member
All we are is farts in the wind.
Anyway, if they're looking to ship 20 million in the first year this thing has to be launching as multiple products. But even then I have to think that 20 million has to be a typo or Nintendo is about to do something incredibly complicated.
paragonpro
Banned
I will pre order it, like a chump, but hopefully they launch with a solid first party line up to support it, I really think zelda is going to be a cross gen title, and it wouldn't shock me if the next 3d mario was a launch game.
This argument is like "Will Nintendo go mobile?". Serious flashbacks.
In 2016 there is gonna be atleast one new console from nintendo.
"We’ve also said publicly that we are already hard at work on our next home console and that’s another element we’ll be talking about much later." - Reggie
They only have mentioned NX publicly, that implies NX is a home console.
"“If we started for Wii U now, it would likely take three years or so. So it would likely now be on Nintendo’s NX console." - Tanabe, Metroid Prime's series director talking about next main Metroid Prime game
Not really direct confirmation, but it's kind of implied since they aren't going to make a mainline Metroid Prime on a handheld.
Plus that quote posted a few posts above from Iwata talks about the plans for software infrastructure/OS similar in a way to android/iOS. It honestly just makes sense for them to be releasing both a handheld and console running on the same OS/infrastructure, considering how bad software droughts are for their systems to make games work across form factors.
TheMagician
Member
It'll be Christmas 2016 with Zelda on day 1.
That's not true. They have also mentioned their next home console without mentioning NX. Besides home console is not some scientific term. It might very well mean multiple things. What it specifically is in this context is just the replacer of Wii U.
Impossible to know without the question that is not included in the article. Besides who said a mainline Metroid Prime can't be on a hybrid? If there would ever be a hybrid it would have many franchises traditionally only on handheld or home console naturally migrate.
amstradcpc
Member
I am starting to thing it is a handheld, smartphone-like with sticks, and with a charging base connected via hdmi to the TV to act like a desktop console too.
Cosmonaut X
Member
IMO, hybrid - and by this I mean a powerful-ish handheld that docks with a home station, or links to the TV - is a bad idea because it forces Nintendo into having a single device that doesn't suit all markets.
It's clear that Japan is moving - has moved - handheld/mobile, and while consoles have a place, it's shrinking. In the west, consoles are still big business while handhelds have been encroached on by mobile (in Japan they seem to co-exist relatively well).
A hybrid doesn't really fit either market - it wouldn't have the grunt of a home console for the West, and it likely wouldn't be cheap enough to succeed in Japan as a handheld.
Multiple hardware forms based around a common architecture/ecosystem lets Nintendo target global markets differently, and offer platforms for different segments of each market, without having to support two totally distinct home/handheld platforms, and without mashing them all up into one Franken-platform. It comes with its own set of risks, but I see it as a better option than a single hybrid platform, or two distinct home/handheld devices as with GCN/GBA, Wii/DS, Wii U/3DS.
It's clear that Japan is moving - has moved - handheld/mobile, and while consoles have a place, it's shrinking. In the west, consoles are still big business while handhelds have been encroached on by mobile (in Japan they seem to co-exist relatively well).
A hybrid doesn't really fit either market - it wouldn't have the grunt of a home console for the West, and it likely wouldn't be cheap enough to succeed in Japan as a handheld.
Multiple hardware forms based around a common architecture/ecosystem lets Nintendo target global markets differently, and offer platforms for different segments of each market, without having to support two totally distinct home/handheld platforms, and without mashing them all up into one Franken-platform. It comes with its own set of risks, but I see it as a better option than a single hybrid platform, or two distinct home/handheld devices as with GCN/GBA, Wii/DS, Wii U/3DS.
papercan55
Member
I think nintendo NX will have two versions 1 console and 1 handheld, both share similar architecture so that games can be released on both but with separate features.
If you want both versions of a game then you get a discount.
The 20 million figure probably is guessing 10 million for each but even then that's very high,
but with both zelda and diddy kong racing 2 on day 1 it will do very well.
This is more on the bullshit side of Digitimes. I mean we just got a quote about why they don't release games in summer, does anyone think they'd launch a new device outside the holiday season unless it missed a date? 20 million isn't happening either. Late 2016 makes perfect sense for a handheld though I think Wii U will be around until 2017. I doubt they'll launch both devices in the same year.