DQ's Hori, "once the smartphone boom settles, home consoles will be the focus again"

Apr 15, 2010
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I like how how thinks.

Sure the PS4 is not doing well in Japan but there is a very simple and obvious reason for that, there aren't many (or even any?) games out for it that the Japanese audience likes. The developers themselves are dropping the ball.

If the Final Fantasys, Metal Gears, Dragon Quests, Devil May Crys etc., RPGs in general, heck maybe even hunting games, were hitting proper then it would be a different story.

There's that PS2 first year game releases pic going around on GAF and that really says it all. Japan really had it back then.
 
Apr 27, 2011
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This prediction is less likely to come true than any I have read in months, even years.

Even if lifestyles were to somehow revert to pre-mobile tendencies, does Japan even have the demographics to support such a switch?

I put this in the category of "good luck".
From watching game sales in Japan for the past decade, while it's hard to predict what will become big a few trends do stand out. The first is that yes, on the go gaming as been a long term trend the entire time, but the other is a bit more subtle and doesn't get much discussion here: The Bandwagon Effect.

Once something does well in Japan and really catches on we see continual high sales over a long period. It happens most often with Nintendo games so we think of it as a Nintendo thing but it isn't. The most obvious example of this was Monster Hunter for PSP. If they can get people talking about te product enthusiastically it can change things quickly. PS3 had a significant turnaround after FFXIII. Obviously this is easier said than done, but if anything could pull it off it'd be a combo of both a new FF and DQ mainline.
 

Dark_castle

Junior Member
Jun 25, 2013
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From watching game sales in Japan for the past decade, while it's hard to predict what will become big a few trends do stand out. The first is that yes, on the go gaming as been a long term trend the entire time, but the other is a bit more subtle and doesn't get much discussion here: The Bandwagon Effect.

Once something does well in Japan and really catches on we see continual high sales over a long period. It happens most often with Nintendo games so we think of it as a Nintendo thing but it isn't. The most obvious example of this was Monster Hunter for PSP. If they can get people talking about te product enthusiastically it can change things quickly. PS3 had a significant turnaround after FFXIII. Obviously this is easier said than done, but if anything could pull it off it'd be a combo of both a new FF and DQ mainline.
What significant turnaround after FFXIII that you were referring to? As far as localized JRPG goes, I think the library was even wider in 360 until couple of years later into the console gen where PS3 starts to catch up.
 
Jun 17, 2014
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The thing is, there's barely anyone that buys a smartphone device purely for gaming. It's a device people carry with them all the time for various reasons, having the option to use it as a powerful pocket-sized gaming device is pretty much a side-product.

People will continue to buy smartphones and get their gaming fix from games they can find on these devices. Maybe if the mobile market keeps being flooded with the typical underwhelming games, the general public might gravitate towards home consoles again to experience greater works. I guess that makes sense.
 
Apr 27, 2011
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What significant turnaround after FFXIII that you were referring to? As far as localized JRPG goes, I think the library was even wider in 360 until couple of years later into the console gen where PS3 starts to catch up.
2008: 980k
2009: 1.7 million
2010: 1.5 million
2011: 1.5 million
2012: 1.2 million

XIII played a big part in this and marked a long period of improved sales for the system.
 
Oct 18, 2013
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Eh, I disagree. I feel that once the smart phone boom settles the market will mature and we'll get out of this free to play craze, allowing for developers to make more traditional games at a higher price and result in much higher quality titles. Combine that with attachable controllers (hopefully) becoming standardized and eventually I see smart phones being looked upon as the default gaming device to the general population, just like how consoles replaced arcades as the default gaming device.
The smartphone market will never invest money into a game in one lump sum for a large chunk of content and will never embrace physical controllers.

Its been 6-7 years that we have really had smartphone games and its trajectory and preference for "free" simple and monetization laden titles has been made clear. The expectation is that any single purchase for games on a smartphone is .99 or less than 4.99. Even if you do that purchase 20-30 times over the course of a year, almost none of those buyers would have spent $30 up front.

Greed, plagarism, psychological tricks, and hiding costs and currencies behind currencies behind random loot drop systems is now the standard for the platform. It works and it's profitable so there is no reason to change that course anytime in the next few years.

I still expect a crash when people realize what a scam and waste all these games are. Probably 3-4 years after the market saturation of the smart phone market. When there are less new smartphone owners there will be less players of these games.

The biggest problem is that there is almost no interest in buyers who try a variety of apps. They are all going for the people who will keep playing and spending in one game everyday. The problem is that when people get tired of / realize how much money is being wasted on these games they don't move on to a new one and keep spending.

I don't know how many people told me this very thing about candy crush. "I wasted too much time on it" "my kids spent too much" and deleted it and never looked back.

The people playing these games aren't playing because they love games. The games were designed to hook and compel you on an almost habitual basis. If you ask most candy crush players why they don't play console or traditional games they will most likely say:

They are too confusing.
They cost too much.
They waste too much time.

Only one of those is not true of candy crush eventually. And those other two are going to push non traditional gamers away from mobile games eventually.
 

Woo-Fu

incest on the subway
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Don't know about console rise with Japan declining demographic, but smartphone boom can't last forever that's true.
The boom is already over, they're practically ubiquitous. Smartphone will become a redundant term as every phone will be "smart". Cellphone gaming is here to stay.
 
Sep 3, 2014
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DQXI has to be a ps4 game. SE (and the other japanese dev) knows that the PS4 might be their last chance in saving console gaming in Japan and thus making them to commit to the PS4. We can see their effort in building first a solid userbase (Type 0, DQ Heroes,REmake, Ground Zero) and after that some big hitters will increase even more the userbase. DQ is the biggest console franchise in Japan, and moves a lot of consoles. If they develop it for the ps4 they can reuse the engine for XII.
 
Mar 21, 2014
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Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4:


  • Horii states on a radio show that DQ11 in development and he wants to play on the big screen.
  • SCEJA President's first words to Horii at the pre TGS event are "Welcome back home" after DQH is shown
  • Famitsu Interview with Horii; He wants fans to first play DQHeroes and then get excited for the next numbered title
  • Horii confirms on more than one occasion that it will not be for smartphones
  • Horii states in this interview that playing for long periods of time on home consoles is more confortable than smartphones/handhelds
  • Horii states in the same interview he wants to increase the amount of core gamers in Japan
  • Horii says in the same interview that game fans still want to play on the big screen

Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4 not a tin foil hat theory edition:


  • First day TGS gameplay of DQHeroes has the characters at level 8 versing small creatures, the next day they are level 11 fighting a big boss
  • DQHeroes live broadcast had two separate demos; Both had the characters start out with 811 coins
  • In the first DQHeroes live broadcast demo both Mea and Kiryl are level 17, in the second demo Mea levels up by 6 and Kiryl by 5. 6+5 = 11
  • In the second DQHeroes live broadcast demo, the characters are level 22, 22, 23, and 24. If you add the left column and the right column together separately you get 8 and 11.
  • At TGS a SE employee tweeted that he ironprinted Slimes to T-shirts for promoting DQH, and and it just so happened he printed 11 of them
 
Feb 25, 2014
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Paris
DQ will be on PS4 but I don't think it'll be on the PS3 or the 3DS because I expect DQ XI to release late 2016 at the earliest and they will both be dead by that point. Maybe on the new Nintendo's console/handheld but even that is not probable because of the small userbase they'll have at the time.
 
Oct 5, 2007
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DQ will be on PS4 but I don't think it'll be on the PS3 or the 3DS because I expect DQ XI to release late 2016 at the earliest and they will both be dead by that point. Maybe on the new Nintendo's console/handheld but even that is not probable because of the small userbase they'll have at the time.
3DS will still be around in 2016, DS lasted 7 years. 3DS will only be 4 years old in 2016.
 
Dec 6, 2008
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Surechigai and local MP was huge on DQIX and really helped boost the game to an all time series best. I seriously doubt that a single console exclusive would even come close, especially now. Horii may want the big screen, but does he want to follow DQIX with two low-selling sequels? X may be forgiveable as an MMO but a traditional title would be something else.
 
Apr 6, 2014
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People really are in denial. A large part of what used to be the home console market is gone forever and it ain't coming back thanks to smartphones and steam. You used to have 2-3 popular consoles to choose from but soon (maybe already) we will have 1 popular console and 1 far lesser alternative at best. We used to have a new generation every 3-4 years and now it's more like every 6-7. We used to have many different publishers, genres and budgets but now we will have mostly big budget mainstream genre games. Your gaming needs will be filled as always but not 100% on home consoles like it used it be and they aren't a must buy for casual gamers like they used to be.
 
Aug 10, 2012
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Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4:


  • Horii states on a radio show that DQ11 in development and he wants to play on the big screen.
  • SCEJA President's first words to Horii at the pre TGS event are "Welcome back home" after DQH is shown
  • Famitsu Interview with Horii; He wants fans to first play DQHeroes and then get excited for the next numbered title
  • Horii confirms on more than one occasion that it will not be for smartphones
  • Horii states in this interview that playing for long periods of time on home consoles is more confortable than smartphones/handhelds
  • Horii states in the same interview he wants to increase the amount of core gamers in Japan
  • Horii says in the same interview that game fans still want to play on the big screen
Well said.
 

kehs

Banned
Feb 4, 2010
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Article in the OP is right, just in the wrong way.

Smartphones will settle into become "consoles". We're already seeing it with chromecast. When latency on wireless networks reduce to the point below current display rates. The idea of having a fixed piece of hardware for games ( or really anything else) is gonna die off.

People really underestimate the bandwidth that capable on wireless tech.
 
Aug 4, 2013
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Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4:


  • Horii states on a radio show that DQ11 in development and he wants to play on the big screen.
  • SCEJA President's first words to Horii at the pre TGS event are "Welcome back home" after DQH is shown
  • Famitsu Interview with Horii; He wants fans to first play DQHeroes and then get excited for the next numbered title
  • Horii confirms on more than one occasion that it will not be for smartphones
  • Horii states in this interview that playing for long periods of time on home consoles is more confortable than smartphones/handhelds
  • Horii states in the same interview he wants to increase the amount of core gamers in Japan
  • Horii says in the same interview that game fans still want to play on the big screen

Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4 not a tin foil hat theory edition:


  • First day TGS gameplay of DQHeroes has the characters at level 8 versing small creatures, the next day they are level 11 fighting a big boss
  • DQHeroes live broadcast had two separate demos; Both had the characters start out with 811 coins
  • In the first DQHeroes live broadcast demo both Mea and Kiryl are level 17, in the second demo Mea levels up by 6 and Kiryl by 5. 6+5 = 11
  • In the second DQHeroes live broadcast demo, the characters are level 22, 22, 23, and 24. If you add the left column and the right column together separately you get 8 and 11.


So hyped man. Dream come true.

A solid looking Final Fantasy XV being made and a high liklihood of DQ returning to the Playstation? SO HYPED

Sony should release a DQVIII Remaster or something to remind people on why they should be hyped as hell for DQXI
 
Aug 29, 2010
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I'd also add Nintendo's sudden disinterest in the DQ IP could be because it's gone back to Sony. I think that is one of the things blocking DQ7's localization (since Square-Enix themselves lost interest in DQ in the West a long, long time ago and Nintendo was localizing these games).

It's also telling that Koei-Tecmo, who is very cozy with Nintendo these days, didn't put Dragon Quest Heroes on Wii U (where DQX currently resides) along with PS4.
 
Dec 5, 2008
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I think that the Japanese mobile market is very mature, stable and long term viable. There are more Japanese companies that aren't just one hit wonder and games generally have a higher level of complexity. I'd say that the handheld boom of last generation was the anomaly ending in its logical phone conclusion.
 
Aug 4, 2012
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Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4:


  • Horii states on a radio show that DQ11 in development and he wants to play on the big screen.
  • SCEJA President's first words to Horii at the pre TGS event are "Welcome back home" after DQH is shown
  • Famitsu Interview with Horii; He wants fans to first play DQHeroes and then get excited for the next numbered title
  • Horii confirms on more than one occasion that it will not be for smartphones
  • Horii states in this interview that playing for long periods of time on home consoles is more confortable than smartphones/handhelds
  • Horii states in the same interview he wants to increase the amount of core gamers in Japan
  • Horii says in the same interview that game fans still want to play on the big screen

Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4 not a tin foil hat theory edition:


  • First day TGS gameplay of DQHeroes has the characters at level 8 versing small creatures, the next day they are level 11 fighting a big boss
  • DQHeroes live broadcast had two separate demos; Both had the characters start out with 811 coins
  • In the first DQHeroes live broadcast demo both Mea and Kiryl are level 17, in the second demo Mea levels up by 6 and Kiryl by 5. 6+5 = 11
  • In the second DQHeroes live broadcast demo, the characters are level 22, 22, 23, and 24. If you add the left column and the right column together separately you get 8 and 11.
now we just need to figure out if there is a potential dq8 remaster as well. i don't see why not when kingdom hearts series got one. btw when is the anniversary for dragon quest because if it is 2016 then i can see the remaster in december 2015 to fill the gap.
 
Jul 28, 2012
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Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4:


  • Horii states on a radio show that DQ11 in development and he wants to play on the big screen.
  • SCEJA President's first words to Horii at the pre TGS event are "Welcome back home" after DQH is shown
  • Famitsu Interview with Horii; He wants fans to first play DQHeroes and then get excited for the next numbered title
  • Horii confirms on more than one occasion that it will not be for smartphones
  • Horii states in this interview that playing for long periods of time on home consoles is more confortable than smartphones/handhelds
  • Horii states in the same interview he wants to increase the amount of core gamers in Japan
  • Horii says in the same interview that game fans still want to play on the big screen

Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4 not a tin foil hat theory edition:


  • First day TGS gameplay of DQHeroes has the characters at level 8 versing small creatures, the next day they are level 11 fighting a big boss
  • DQHeroes live broadcast had two separate demos; Both had the characters start out with 811 coins
  • In the first DQHeroes live broadcast demo both Mea and Kiryl are level 17, in the second demo Mea levels up by 6 and Kiryl by 5. 6+5 = 11
  • In the second DQHeroes live broadcast demo, the characters are level 22, 22, 23, and 24. If you add the left column and the right column together separately you get 8 and 11.
I cannot believe that on the span of several months we went from there's no way DQ11 will be on PS4 to DQ11 is going to be on PS4.

now we just need to figure out if there is a potential dq8 remaster as well. i don't see why not when kingdom hearts series got one.
SE please. They should totally do it seeing as DQ11 is some time away.
 
He's being strident about the inability to do normal, packaged titles on that thing and make big money. Big Money comes from whale hunting and low cost development and a requirement for something to catch fire with little to ascertain what does and does not catch fire, plus seems resistant to long form gaming either from large narrative bents, meaty mechanics, or UI period (what happened here?!?!).

I've come to the conclusion that he has no confidence a DQ XI for iOS/Android would sell for 5000Y or what have you, despite the deep love for those devices worldwide and DQ's place in Japan's hearts.
 
Sep 25, 2008
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Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4 not a tin foil hat theory edition:


  • First day TGS gameplay of DQHeroes has the characters at level 8 versing small creatures, the next day they are level 11 fighting a big boss
  • DQHeroes live broadcast had two separate demos; Both had the characters start out with 811 coins
    [*]In the first DQHeroes live broadcast demo both Mea and Kiryl are level 17, in the second demo Mea levels up by 6 and Kiryl by 5. 6+5 = 11
    [*]In the second DQHeroes live broadcast demo, the characters are level 22, 22, 23, and 24. If you add the left column and the right column together separately you get 8 and 11.
The bold part seems like ppl tried too hard to get 11 from the demo but it was funny.

To add to the tinfoil hat edition, at the TGS day a SE employee tweeted that he ironprinted Slimes to his T-shirt for DQH promotion, and for some reason he printed 11 of them...
 
Mar 5, 2011
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Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4:


  • Horii states on a radio show that DQ11 in development and he wants to play on the big screen.
  • SCEJA President's first words to Horii at the pre TGS event are "Welcome back home" after DQH is shown
  • Famitsu Interview with Horii; He wants fans to first play DQHeroes and then get excited for the next numbered title
  • Horii confirms on more than one occasion that it will not be for smartphones
  • Horii states in this interview that playing for long periods of time on home consoles is more confortable than smartphones/handhelds
  • Horii states in the same interview he wants to increase the amount of core gamers in Japan
  • Horii says in the same interview that game fans still want to play on the big screen

Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4 not a tin foil hat theory edition:


  • First day TGS gameplay of DQHeroes has the characters at level 8 versing small creatures, the next day they are level 11 fighting a big boss
  • DQHeroes live broadcast had two separate demos; Both had the characters start out with 811 coins
  • In the first DQHeroes live broadcast demo both Mea and Kiryl are level 17, in the second demo Mea levels up by 6 and Kiryl by 5. 6+5 = 11
  • In the second DQHeroes live broadcast demo, the characters are level 22, 22, 23, and 24. If you add the left column and the right column together separately you get 8 and 11.
And then Nintendo slips Square Enix a check, and your theory comes tumbling down like a house of cards.
 
Feb 25, 2014
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Paris
I really doubt PS4 sales in 2016 can be greater than 3DS or even PS3 sales lol
Sure but a big install base doesn't mean bigger sale. A lot of Vita/PS3 multiplatform games sold best on Vita despite the large difference in install base, same for some PS4/PS3 multiplatform games ( I'm thinking about the Evil Within). Install basz base doesn't mean anything if the user aren't active. And that's without taking the west into account.
 
Aug 4, 2012
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I still believe it'll be on PS3 as well. Exclusive would be absurd, unless it's not out for another five years.
i initially thought dq heroes being on ps3/ps4 is a sign to see how the split is going to be with them pushing the ps4 version. if it is heavily in ps3 favor then they probably would do a ps3 version as well for dq11 if not i can see them just going ps4 only because ps4 base would have increased to a more respectable number by 2016.

And then Nintendo slips Square Enix a check, and your theory comes tumbling down like a house of cards.
well, the game is most likely halfway in dev so i can't see that happening.
 
Oct 23, 2013
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Do it SE. Give me one last DQ game as a swan song to console gaming in Japan. Console gaming there is obviously going/gone to shit, let it go out in a good way!

You better localize this bitch tho.
 
Apr 15, 2010
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i initially thought dq heroes being on ps3/ps4 is a sign to see how the split is going to be with them pushing the ps4 version. if it is heavily in ps3 favor then they probably would do a ps3 version as well for dq11 if not i can see them just going ps4 only because ps4 base would have increased to a more respectable number by 2016.
And it's not like they have a problem making FFXV and KH3 new gen exclusive.
 
Aug 4, 2012
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FFXIII alone didn't do much. It was: price cut + Slim version + 90% of AAA home console IPs + Wii fading.
isn't the situation kinda similar replacing the wii with wii u? i can see a price cut early next year alongside dqheroes and maybe a slim version later in the year but to be honest the current version seems like a slim version already.

And it's not like they have a problem making FFXV and KH3 new gen exclusive.
i get the feeling sony may have locked this up since they let ff and kh go multi. sony will probably help se in promoting and bringing this worldwide
 
Jan 9, 2008
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And it's not like they have a problem making FFXV and KH3 new gen exclusive.
Those games matter worldwide, where next-gen took off instantly.

If DQ11 is like DQ8, and it's PS3/4, and marketed correctly, it could sell well in the West, but I doubt SE are confident enough about that to base a SKU decision on it.
 
May 19, 2005
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I definitely get the feeling that with DQ IP, Horii is making a push for console gaming. It's great that he's striving for it and I look forward to the results. It's a bit weird though that they seemingly built an audience for mainline DQ on 3DS and that might not amount to anything now. But either way, I'm all for console gaming being a thing in Japan again. I do miss the big production console RPGs of the SNES/PS1/PS2 eras, though I love dedicated handhelds and what they offer.

Sure but a big install base doesn't mean bigger sale. A lot of Vita/PS3 multiplatform games sold best on Vita despite the large difference in install base, same for some PS4/PS3 multiplatform games ( I'm thinking about the Evil Within). Install basz base doesn't mean anything if the user aren't active. And that's without taking the west into account.
For niche titles install base isn't paramount, but for a major franchise like Dragon Quest, it is. This is why SE is starting with something like DQH, to develop a userbase.
 
Sep 25, 2008
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Those games matter worldwide, where next-gen took off instantly.
Now the question is with SE seeing performance of past DQ worldwide for past few years are they still wanting to the series to be popular WW? I'm sure for FF and KH WW market is extremely important, like you stated.

I'm not saying DQ is or isn't popular in Western market.
 
Oct 5, 2007
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Sure but a big install base doesn't mean bigger sale. A lot of Vita/PS3 multiplatform games sold best on Vita despite the large difference in install base, same for some PS4/PS3 multiplatform games ( I'm thinking about the Evil Within). Install basz base doesn't mean anything if the user aren't active. And that's without taking the west into account.
The games you mentioned does not sell in the amount Dragon Quest games usually sells for (not counting X) . They also shows that Japan do favors portable gaming more.



Without the install base of PS3 i doubt they can be near the LTD of DQ9 sales.