Musha_Soturi
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EU- Referendum for the UK..... Neogaf UK are you in or out?
- Thread starter Tak3n
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CyclopsRock
Member
Sure, but you said " it's more than likely they'd rule that Scotland would still be part of the EU" - now I appreciate that the words of the EU Commission aren't binding or anything, but you've gone literally the other way and said that what they've said is unlikely to happen and what you think is "more than likely" to happen - based on what?
Blind speculation so I take your point.
FWIW, I'm currently watching Boris Johnson's father making his own case for Britain remaining in Europe on Sky News. Interesting. Brexit is apparently something that cuts right across party, class and family lines.
flintstryker
Banned
Personally I think the world should be ideally striving towards being more connected not regressing towards separation so while I am certain there are problems with the current setup I wouldn't vote to leave were I a UK citizen.
King Gilga
Member
I don't know any of the specifics but I like being part of the EU, as long as we never have to use the euro.
Never is a long time, it won't be for a few years but at some point we'll have to adopt the Euro.
No, we won't. We'll never have to. We can choose to, but will never have to nor do I hope we do.
If we were made to accept the euro alot of people wouldn't want to be part of the EU.
As a french person I would love nothing more than to be a cunt about it and cheer on the UK screwing itself up all the way, unfortunately I've been living abroad for years, especially in Russia and China, and I can see how it would fuck us all up.
Putin especially would break out the champagne the minute the uk leaves Europe. The whole continent weakened economically, reduced competitivity trough less cooperation, reduced bargaining power for the union as a whole in dealing with other powers, a massive hit to the European ideal in the middle of one of the wort crisis in Europe, big boost to nationalism and souverainisme, worsening of diplomatic relations all over Europe, and the cherry on top would be the boost to regionalism if Scotland can get independence or at least have a good try, sending shock waves into Spain and the rest of Europe. Really what's not to like?
It will massively accelerate the decline of Europe on the world stage, and with a bit of luck and a new wave of refugees and debt problems might finally push the union over the edge. But hey, the US will keep doing all the heavy lifting for all of us, right?
Putin especially would break out the champagne the minute the uk leaves Europe. The whole continent weakened economically, reduced competitivity trough less cooperation, reduced bargaining power for the union as a whole in dealing with other powers, a massive hit to the European ideal in the middle of one of the wort crisis in Europe, big boost to nationalism and souverainisme, worsening of diplomatic relations all over Europe, and the cherry on top would be the boost to regionalism if Scotland can get independence or at least have a good try, sending shock waves into Spain and the rest of Europe. Really what's not to like?
It will massively accelerate the decline of Europe on the world stage, and with a bit of luck and a new wave of refugees and debt problems might finally push the union over the edge. But hey, the US will keep doing all the heavy lifting for all of us, right?
No we won't. I have no idea how you've even pulled that from your arse.
I'm talking like 50 years in the future here guys. I think it'll happen eventually since I just don't think the pound will last forever, if you disagree then fair enough.
Why would we join a currency that has already shown itself to be volatile? There's as much chance of the world adopting one currency as the pound disappearing and us joining the Euro.
I'd imagine it would be internal European politics pushing for ever closer union between all states. Things like the Schengen area would be extended to include the UK and Ireland and the Euro growing to include the pound and the krone are natural endgames to a federal Europe.
That's one hell of a crystal ball.
We are exempt from this ever closer union and we chose not to join Schengen. We cannot be forced into it.
You talk like the Euro will still exist in the future.
I actually laughed out loud at this. The Euro is more likely to collapse than the UK ever accepting it.
CharmingCharlie
Member
I think it is a fair question to ask if the Euro will still be here in 50 years time the way things are going with that currency. The pound on the other hand has been around since 1707 and is still regarding as a top tier currency to this day. So yeah the UK will still be using the pound in 2066.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Yep. Odds for LEAVE have narrowed to 2.75 since this morning. Clearly the bookies think BoJo's announcement makes a difference!
I don't really get the feeling about this being about 'ideological' differences among the Tories. Definitely for some, like Gove and Boris, it feels like it might just be power play within the party. As I said befor, I think it's despicable, but I can certainly see Boris supporting 'stay' if May had gone for the 'leave' option.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
It would be absurd to adopt it in the current climate. But if the euro pulls through (if) and is still around in 50 years time, it probably won't seem as ridiculous to adopt the single currency. The global influence and relative economic power of the UK to the world at large is declining over time.
lastplayed
Member
1000th anniversary of the Norman invasion!
blastprocessor
The Amiga Brotherhood
I'm pretty sure this will be a big turn out for working/middle class folk in particular the sun/daily mail reader that are fed up with current benefit and immigration policies (lack of). I suspect out will pip the vote. It's going to be a hard one for the conservative to dissuade otherwise.
uncleniccius
Member
We got out of that in the Maastricht treaty. The UK and Denmark do not have to do it.. Something big would have to happen to change that and I can never see that happening.
Boy Wander
Member
The pound has been around for hundreds of years yet you think it might not last another 50? I'd wager the Euro will go before the pound. Sterling is still seen as somewhat of a safe house in the currency markets.
But so what? People should have their own thoughts on what they think is best, not go along with someone just because they like him.
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
EU is love:
Stay for the sweet kisses.
UK should stay.
Stay for the sweet kisses.
I see Iain Duncan Smith has already played the "Paris-style attack" card
just had that one ready to go. gotta remind the plebs about the scary muslims or something. prick.
just had that one ready to go. gotta remind the plebs about the scary muslims or something. prick.
Mac@NeoGAF
Banned
Why is that more worthy of contempt than Cameron and May citing anti-terrorism & general security concerns as a reason for staying?
Paris may not be mentioned by name but the implication is there.
milanbaros
Member?
The probability that the pound is still around in 50 years is much much higher than the Euro. If all the things to predict, that is just crazy.
The only chance that Britain adopts the Euro is if the pound collapses but the public debt is all in sterling and we have a free floating exchange rate, so one of those things would have to change first.
Jimbob Smalls
Banned
People are more inclined to believe the words of someone they like though, its human nature.
PipefishUK
Banned
Definitely IN.
Such short sighted idiots that want out. It's the reason all these businesses are here and partly why our economy is the 5th biggest in the world/2nd in Europe.
We'll be an insignificant dot on a map if we leave - giving up all the influence we have and becoming a backwards jealous little shithole with delusions of grandeur.
And just watch how quickly the Tories go to town on ripping up workers rights, holiday pay, redundancy pay, sick pay, etc. The second we leave.
Has anyone taken a tally yet? What's the overall view here?
Such short sighted idiots that want out. It's the reason all these businesses are here and partly why our economy is the 5th biggest in the world/2nd in Europe.
We'll be an insignificant dot on a map if we leave - giving up all the influence we have and becoming a backwards jealous little shithole with delusions of grandeur.
And just watch how quickly the Tories go to town on ripping up workers rights, holiday pay, redundancy pay, sick pay, etc. The second we leave.
Has anyone taken a tally yet? What's the overall view here?
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I shall be voting to remain in the EU.
Mostly for short-term pragmatic reasons. Im pretty sure that the UK could work about equally well either inside or outside the EU (provided that the rest of the EU continues to exist), but Im not convinced that there is a significant benefit to being outside while I am convinced that the process of leaving would be a high-risk enterprise that would dominate the political discourse for two or three years when we have much more important things to worry about.
On the EU itself: Yes theres a lot of law that comes from the EU and maybe wed prefer to be making all our own laws ourselves but on the other hand theres really not a lot of point in having all the laws different in all the countries. Yes, theres one hell of a democratic deficit but anyone who pays attention to the voting in Eurovision will realise that is not necessarily a bad thing. Yes there are some really stupid things, like Strasbourg and the CAP. But also there is a lot that is sensible, a lot that is genuinely realistic to have in common. And Free Trade is generally a Good Thing. And regulation is also generally a Good Thing.
On UK supremacy: Really, how much would be different? For starters wed lose the inward part of our net contribution to the EU which largely goes to the poorer regions. Good luck on getting that out of London if we were wholly independent. Wed gain the ability to do more state aid to failing industries which sounds like a money-sink. Beyond that, probably not very much. With all due respect to Ding-Ding (who does have direct experience of this stuff) the obstruction he is getting on the grounds of EU law wouldnt go away, he would just get obstructed in the same things for different reasons, because people like to obstruct things (for examples, read any set of political diaries from the last 100 years or so).
On the effects of a vote for Brexit: First thing that happens is a massive influx of immigrants, much bigger than anything weve seen so far, and we wont be able to get rid of them afterwards whatever anyone says. Second thing that happens is a renewed push for Scottish independence with all the political turmoil that that involves. Third thing that happens is two or three years of negotiation which will result in a not-very-good settlement for leaving (it cant be a very good settlement because that would encourage others to leave the EU) and by the time that negotiation is complete the benefits of leaving the EU will be much less apparent so well probably have another referendum and vote to stay in.
The very worst state of affairs would be if tactical voting in Scotland triggers an EU exit followed by a Scottish separation followed by a Scottish application to join the EU while the UK is negotiating to leave, followed by other EU countries threatening to leave and the potential breakup of the whole EU project. It would be a nightmare I tell you.
So count me IN.
Mostly for short-term pragmatic reasons. Im pretty sure that the UK could work about equally well either inside or outside the EU (provided that the rest of the EU continues to exist), but Im not convinced that there is a significant benefit to being outside while I am convinced that the process of leaving would be a high-risk enterprise that would dominate the political discourse for two or three years when we have much more important things to worry about.
On the EU itself: Yes theres a lot of law that comes from the EU and maybe wed prefer to be making all our own laws ourselves but on the other hand theres really not a lot of point in having all the laws different in all the countries. Yes, theres one hell of a democratic deficit but anyone who pays attention to the voting in Eurovision will realise that is not necessarily a bad thing. Yes there are some really stupid things, like Strasbourg and the CAP. But also there is a lot that is sensible, a lot that is genuinely realistic to have in common. And Free Trade is generally a Good Thing. And regulation is also generally a Good Thing.
On UK supremacy: Really, how much would be different? For starters wed lose the inward part of our net contribution to the EU which largely goes to the poorer regions. Good luck on getting that out of London if we were wholly independent. Wed gain the ability to do more state aid to failing industries which sounds like a money-sink. Beyond that, probably not very much. With all due respect to Ding-Ding (who does have direct experience of this stuff) the obstruction he is getting on the grounds of EU law wouldnt go away, he would just get obstructed in the same things for different reasons, because people like to obstruct things (for examples, read any set of political diaries from the last 100 years or so).
On the effects of a vote for Brexit: First thing that happens is a massive influx of immigrants, much bigger than anything weve seen so far, and we wont be able to get rid of them afterwards whatever anyone says. Second thing that happens is a renewed push for Scottish independence with all the political turmoil that that involves. Third thing that happens is two or three years of negotiation which will result in a not-very-good settlement for leaving (it cant be a very good settlement because that would encourage others to leave the EU) and by the time that negotiation is complete the benefits of leaving the EU will be much less apparent so well probably have another referendum and vote to stay in.
The very worst state of affairs would be if tactical voting in Scotland triggers an EU exit followed by a Scottish separation followed by a Scottish application to join the EU while the UK is negotiating to leave, followed by other EU countries threatening to leave and the potential breakup of the whole EU project. It would be a nightmare I tell you.
So count me IN.
Ovek
7Member7
Very much this, it's a more scary future than the supposed terrorists flooding Europe.
aygomyownroad
Member
How much do we pay the EU?
It seems to be £30-50 million a day.
If anything I want to find out why we pay so much money in a time where we should be using it for better things. There needs to be more transparency with the EU, what is our money used on. Yes its only 0.5% GDP but using that figure alone would get peoples Jimmys rustled!
I mean Confederation of British Industry suggests the direct net economic benefits of membership to the UK are between £62bn and £78bn every year so that's a good figure that would be ignored.
It comes down to one thing this referendum... Migrants. They are flooding the streets of every town in Europe, they are groping women on every corner, every backpack you see has bombs or weapons in it and they are coming over here next! Unless we vote out when we can blow up the Channel Tunnel and defend our glorious Island!
Forget figures, majority of voters voting to leave will do so on the Migrants being kept out
It seems to be £30-50 million a day.
If anything I want to find out why we pay so much money in a time where we should be using it for better things. There needs to be more transparency with the EU, what is our money used on. Yes its only 0.5% GDP but using that figure alone would get peoples Jimmys rustled!
I mean Confederation of British Industry suggests the direct net economic benefits of membership to the UK are between £62bn and £78bn every year so that's a good figure that would be ignored.
It comes down to one thing this referendum... Migrants. They are flooding the streets of every town in Europe, they are groping women on every corner, every backpack you see has bombs or weapons in it and they are coming over here next! Unless we vote out when we can blow up the Channel Tunnel and defend our glorious Island!
Forget figures, majority of voters voting to leave will do so on the Migrants being kept out
The migrant card is always a good one to play unfortunately, perhaps people should be reminded of how it works both ways and that maybe their cheap holidays to Spain could be in jeopardy with a tumbling GBP and heightened airline fees.
If there's one thing people hate more than immigrants, it's the thought of having to spend more money for something.
QuicheFontaine
Member
With respect to the bolded, I hope neither the LEAVE or the REMAIN group are going to make this the primary focus of their campaigns. Not that the economics of it, the "better off" out / in, isn't important, but it's just that situations like these obviously involve some pretty big assumptions when coming up with figures. One side naturally assumes the worst case scenario, the other the best. For anyone coming up with "We'd be £x worse off out" there's another person saying "Well I've done the sums and we'd actually be £y better off". It's one of the issues I had with the Scottish campaign. I actually thought it was too focussed on who was paying money to who.
It's also not that interesting to a general audience, and actually misses the point somewhat imo. If it were merely a pragmatic question of economics, why put this question to the general public at all?
I think you're right that the referendum will turn in large part on the response to the migrant crisis. And, since I'm guessing the EU will continue to whizz it down their leg, Dave has made the right move holding it this year. I reckon this summer will be much like last summer, and UK public opinion will be further against the EU in 2017.
I'm more worried about the 2 million UK citizens living in EU countries getting turfed back. Where would we put the Costa del Grannies. Could we cope? Won't somebody think of the NHS?
I can't imagine they get turfed out should we opt to leave, it would be a logistical nightmare for everyone.
As for the migrant card, that's the one that is played by the vast majority of people I speak to who are in the out camp, people are being way too emotive about it, and voting with their heart, rather than their head.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Lol at the mayor of London throwing in with out of Europe.
Jesus Christ. What a shitshow and what a detestable cunt Boris continues to be.
Jesus Christ. What a shitshow and what a detestable cunt Boris continues to be.
Succinct Verbosity
Member
For one, that money is redistributed across poorer regions in the EU, a few of which are actually in the UK. The EU provide money to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland to subsidise the failings -and yes I'm going there- of successive governments overly focused on the city and South East England.
EdwardTeach
Member
On what basis so you believe this? Do you have any understanding of economics?
QuicheFontaine
Member
Swap them with the 3 million EU migrants in the UK? Or have some sort of "sunset period" amnesty if everyone wants to just stay where they are?
Edit:
"Nothin' lasts forever" - Prof. Axl Rose (BSc. Hons. Economics and Maths at LSE)
kavanf1
Member
Lots of people in the UK see the UKs status as a net financial contributor (second highest net contributor after Germany, to the tune of a few billion Euro) to the EU, and view it as the EU needing Britain more than Britain needing the EU.
The ability to maintain trade agreements like Norway and Switzerland do, while simultaneously cutting back on funding billions to other countries while receiving much less back, is a pretty big incentive for people to vote Out. There are many valid reasons for the UK voting Out, so it's unfortunate that this thread paints that perspective as stupid or xenophobic. Local issues going unaddressed is a powerful inventive for people to think, why can't more of that money be spent on our citizens?
I grew up in Ireland, whose economic resurgence since the late 70s is almost exclusively down to EEC/EC/EU investment. Even today Ireland is a net beneficiary of EU investment to the tune of nearly a billion a year. From that perspective, I think it would be disastrous for the UK to leave, since they contribute so much via the EU to Ireland and other countries in the same situation. However conversely, having lived in the UK since 2002, I can see why many UK citizens are sick to death of seeing their taxes go to fund things that don't benefit them in any meaningful way.
Personally I am torn about how to vote should the referendum happen, but what I do know is the position on Out is far more nuanced than it's being given credit for ITT.
The ability to maintain trade agreements like Norway and Switzerland do, while simultaneously cutting back on funding billions to other countries while receiving much less back, is a pretty big incentive for people to vote Out. There are many valid reasons for the UK voting Out, so it's unfortunate that this thread paints that perspective as stupid or xenophobic. Local issues going unaddressed is a powerful inventive for people to think, why can't more of that money be spent on our citizens?
I grew up in Ireland, whose economic resurgence since the late 70s is almost exclusively down to EEC/EC/EU investment. Even today Ireland is a net beneficiary of EU investment to the tune of nearly a billion a year. From that perspective, I think it would be disastrous for the UK to leave, since they contribute so much via the EU to Ireland and other countries in the same situation. However conversely, having lived in the UK since 2002, I can see why many UK citizens are sick to death of seeing their taxes go to fund things that don't benefit them in any meaningful way.
Personally I am torn about how to vote should the referendum happen, but what I do know is the position on Out is far more nuanced than it's being given credit for ITT.
There was a large Ex-pat community in Spain before and will continue to be, my parents who have a house out there and been constantly hit with new taxes from the Spanish government because they were not Spanish, that would not happen over here, most notably was a change in car driving where you now have to pay some hideous fee if you intend to keep a British car in Spain, taxes on the bank accounts because they are English based...
But Spain will not suddenly tell all these Ex-Pats to GTFO, simply wont happen
Daffy Duck
Member
Nadhim Zahawi has said Britain needs to exit.
Bananajama
Banned
Just following on with that.
Applying for a residency visa for retirement in Spain as a Non-EU citizen is fairly straightforward so long as you have:
- Proof you will be receiving a regular pension.
- Proof of any other sources of income
- Proof of ownership of any property in Spain that you own.
Generally so long as you can sustain yourself they'll let you in happily
EdwardTeach
Member
I will probably vote in for much of the reasons that you outline above. Essentially fear of the unknown, it feels to risky.
Ideologically I am inclined towards out, mainly because it is massively undemocratic. I am also really not keen on an ever closer political union. I think that the EU is massively overreaching and would prefer a greatly pared back union based on free trade. But as I will likely vote to stay in, because I think leaving will be very messy.
Migrants are a total non-issue for me. Immigrants from Europe integrate much more easily than for example the massive number of migrants we already have from places like Pakistan, where the cultural differences are much larger.
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