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Famitsu Sales: 10/11 - 10/17

ethomaz

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Not to be dismissive of your reasoning. I just find it odd that for normal Japanese house holds they would keep both PS4/PS5 consoles hooked up. These are both big consoles which take up a lot of space and space is limited in most Japanese living spaces.
The guy can have only one consoles it won’t change that with PS4 version you get two version (PS4 and PS5) and with PS5 version you get only one (PS5).

There are several reason yo get PS4 version… for example it could be easy to resell it… or a PS4 owner planning to buy a PS5 soon… or because you get 2 buying 1… etc etc.
 
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AlexxKidd

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Not to be dismissive of your reasoning. I just find it odd that for normal Japanese house holds they would keep both PS4/PS5 consoles hooked up. These are both big consoles which take up a lot of space and space is limited in most Japanese living spaces.

You don't need both consoles hooked up. If I buy the PS4 version I can play the PS5 version on my PS5, and I'd still own the PS4 version just in case.
 
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Lognor

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You have two options:

1: Buy only the PS5 version.
2: Buy the PS4 version and get the free PS5 digital version.

Which you choose? It can be weird but most get the PS4 version.
Source on that? We know ps5 software sales in Japan have been anemic so you can't read that from these results
 

Kerotan

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The little machine that could.

I 'know' the x is supplied constrained but you could spin that narrative very easily that the s is the better machine for japan
These consoles are being scalped outside Japan.

Anyway the actual numbers are good for xbox and decent for PS5.
 

Hardensoul

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You don't need both consoles hooked up. If I buy the PS4 version I can play the PS5 version on my PS5, and I'd still own the PS4 version just in case.
I still find that odd, especially for Japan to have both consoles at same time especially for the PS5 since it's backwards compatible. The 2nd hand market is pretty big in Japan, if they have a PS5 the PS4 would most likely be sold already.
 
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Fake

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I still find that odd, especially for Japan to have both consoles at same time especially for the PS5 since it's backwards compatible. The 2nd hand market is pretty big in Japan, if they have a PS5 the PS4 would most likely be sold already.
Some people prefer to have their original console, others just sell their previous console and move to the next. And PS5 having BC don't mean the game will run flawless. A warning is showed when you run a game via BC.
 

Hardensoul

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Some people prefer to have their original console, others just sell their previous console and move to the next. And PS5 having BC don't mean the game will run flawless. A warning is showed when you run a game via BC.
I'm speaking specifically about Japan. Second hand market is big and limited living space makes this very odd choice to me.
 

AlexxKidd

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I still find that odd, especially for Japan to have both consoles at same time especially for the PS5 since it's backwards compatible. The 2nd hand market is pretty big in Japan, if they have a PS5 the PS4 would most likely be sold already.

I find it odd that you're pretending to be some expert on the purchasing habits of the entire country of Japan's households. This has nothing to do with Japan, its universal: Some PS5 owners will buy the PS5 version. Some PS5 owners will buy the PS4 version. PS4 owners who haven't been lucky enough to find a PS5 will buy the PS4 version knowing they'll be able to play the game on their PS4 and continue on a PS5 if they can find one, because it's the same goddamn game.
 

ethomaz

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I'm speaking specifically about Japan. Second hand market is big and limited living space makes this very odd choice to me.
Actually second hand market makes this choice very reasonable… it is easier to resell a PS4 + PS5 version instead only PS5.
 
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Lognor

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That ain't it. It's more likely that if you own a ps5 you buy the ps5 version.

I really doubt there has been some major turnaround on ps5 software since up until now ps5 software sales in Japan have been horrible. Even if you do include ps4 games assuming ppl were buying a ps4 version for their ps5 when a ps5 version exists. It's much more likely that those ps4 copies sold were bought to be used on a ps4
 
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Lognor

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I think in NA it will be an evergreen to some degree.
Bold prediction. I don't see it. It doesn't have the reach that Zelda has but I do hope that dread gets a lot of good word of mouth and continues to pull strong numbers in the short term.

Prime 4 has a better chance of being an evergreen when it launches on switch 2
 

Hardensoul

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I find it odd that you're pretending to be some expert on the purchasing habits of the entire country of Japan's households. This has nothing to do with Japan, its universal: Some PS5 owners will buy the PS5 version. Some PS5 owners will buy the PS4 version. PS4 owners who haven't been lucky enough to find a PS5 will buy the PS4 version knowing they'll be able to play the game on their PS4 and continue on a PS5 if they can find one, because it's the same goddamn game.
WoW, really! You are funny....What the hell am I reading here, that's a lot projection. Why are you being so confrontational.
 

Hardensoul

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Actually second hand market makes this choice very reasonable… it is easier to resell a PS4 + PS5 version instead only PS5.
I understand that. But I don't believe that is a good reason to explain the low software sales of PS5.
 

MrA

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I think in NA it will be an evergreen to some degree.
the challenge there is zelda was a launch title, and was able to enjoy years of being a prominent game. Metroid will probably get less time on shelves depending on how the switch is replaced
I think the best scenario for metroid would be if nintendo replaces the switch with a fully back compatible system and maintains the current switch as a low cost alternative for like 2 or 3 years into the successor's lifespan, giving Metroid a good 4 to 5 years on shelves/prominent part of the eshop
 

TheTony316

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Not to be dismissive of your reasoning. I just find it odd that for normal Japanese house holds they would keep both PS4/PS5 consoles hooked up. These are both big consoles which take up a lot of space and space is limited in most Japanese living spaces.

If you buy the PS4 version you get the PS5 upgrade for free. Plus, i bet the PS4 version in Japan is much easier to resell since the majority still plays on PS4.
 

ethomaz

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I understand that. But I don't believe that is a good reason to explain the low software sales of PS5.
Low? It is the first game in the franchise.

Are you comparing with what exactly?

For example that is what sold a similar game from the same developer in the past:

  1. [PS4] JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Eyes of Heaven(Bandai Namco, 12/17/15) – 23,534 (New)
  2. [PS3] JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Eyes of Heaven(Bandai Namco, 12/17/15) – 20,883 (New)

Seems like not low sales to be fair.
 
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Hardensoul

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Low? It is the first game in the franchise.

Are you comparing with what exactly?

For example that is what sold a similar game from the same developer in the past:

  1. [PS4] JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Eyes of Heaven(Bandai Namco, 12/17/15) – 23,534 (New)
  2. [PS3] JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Eyes of Heaven(Bandai Namco, 12/17/15) – 20,883 (New)

Seems like not low sales to be fair.
Not talking about any particular title, since this week is My Hero Academia it’s probably what you thought I was talking about!
Yes I’ve seen trends like your example and not disputing that. I was speaking of overall PS5 software sales being low!

We will have to agree to disagree. I’m just giving my thoughts! Cheers!
 

Bodomism

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You mean the same lotteries they have been doing with PS5 for a whole year?
I don't know I'd be cautius, I don't remember many people especially Nintendo fans calling PS5 a mega hit just for that :messenger_winking_tongue:
We'll see the sales trend in the future weeks a d through the holiday season.
Switch has sold units more than PS3+PS4+PS5 sold units combined.

Switch is going to end up around 30 million units at the end of its life.

Switch is a mega hit.
 

Elios83

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Switch has sold units more than PS3+PS4+PS5 sold units combined.

Switch is going to end up around 30 million units at the end of its life.

Switch is a mega hit.

Here we're talking about Switch OLED model which so far had modest sales (whatever the reasons are) not overall Switch sales.
I find funny that now being sold through lotteries is a sign of being a megahit when the tune has been kinda different with other consoles facing shortages and being sold through lotteries as well.
Also Switch is at 21m in almost 5 years and the help of a pandemic which forced at home tons of people who normally don't play games.
Ending at around 30m is really unlikely, the system has peaked in 2020.
Now it's up to Nintendo to decide when to introduce a proper successor that certainly is not the oled model.
 
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Celine

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I wonder how much Kimetsu no Yaiba's stocks currently sit on shelves.


The interactive graphs by Oscar are also a sight to behold.
As suspected the PS5 version of Kimetsu no Yaiba sold only a modest fraction of the stocks available in stores (between 40%-60%). The PS4 version fared better (between 60%-80%)
Good luck clearing the remaining stocks for the PS5 version, word of mouth doesn't seem will be of much help (it's the opposite) and PS5 software haven't shown yet much "legs".

 
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Bodomism

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Here we're talking about Switch OLED model which so far had modest sales (whatever the reasons are) not overall Switch sales.
I find funny that now being sold through lotteries is a sign of being a megahit when the tune has been kinda different with other consoles facing shortages and being sold through lotteries as well.
Also Switch is at 21m in almost 5 years and the help of a pandemic which forced at home tons of people who normally don't play games.
Ending at around 30m is really unlikely, the system has peaked in 2020.
Now it's up to Nintendo to decide when to introduce a proper successor that certainly is not the oled model.
We have a Japanese sales insider like Dave Gibson that stated the demand for OLED model is too high

Switch is going to sell around 1.5M-2M in the remaining months of this year and will be around 23M, and only needed 7 million units for the next years before the successor going to be released.

2017 - 3.4M
2018 - 3.5M
2019 - 4.5M
2020 - 6M
2021 - 5.6M-6M(4.1M YTD)
23 million units with 7 million units left to the 30 million units mark.

2022 is going to be another huge year for Nintendo in Japan with many AAA games from Nintendo such as BOTW2(2.5M seller), Pokemon Legends(3-4M seller), 3D Kirby game(1.5M seller), MH Sun Break(1.5M seller), and many potential unannounced games from Nintendo.

30M units mark is very likely based on current trajectory and Japanese market situation as PS5 and XSX/S are barely relevant in Japanese video game market.
 
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noshten

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We have a Japanese sales insider like Dave Gibson that stated the demand for OLED model is too high

Switch is going to sell around 1.5M-2M in the remaining months of this year and will be around 23M, and only needed 7 million units for the next years before the successor going to be released.

2017 - 3.4M
2018 - 3.5M
2019 - 4.5M
2020 - 6M
2021 - 5.6M-6M(4.1M YTD)
23 million units with 7 million units left to the 30 million units mark.

2022 is going to be another huge year for Nintendo in Japan with many AAA games from Nintendo such as BOTW2(2.5M seller), Pokemon Legends(3-4M seller), 3D Kirby game(1.5M seller), MH Sun Break(1.5M seller), and many potential unannounced games from Nintendo.

30M units mark is very likely based on current trajectory and Japanese market situation as PS5 and XSX/S are barely relevant in Japanese video game market.
You are forgetting the elephant in the room for Japan:

Splatoon 2 achieved over 5 million sales in the country despite being a launch game on a limited user-base with big update work stopping around 2018 when most of the team moved onto New Horizon.

Switch & Splatoon 2 shipments by end of September 2017:

Switch 2017 World Wide - 7.63 million
Splatoon 2 World Wide - 3.61 million

Switch 2017 Japan - 1.78 million
Splatoon 2 Japan - 1.44 million


At that point physical sales per Famtisu estimates were 1.19 million so not a huge digital share, this will change with Splatoon 3 as vouchers now push more an more people at launch towards digital adoption.
Splatoon 2 was basically bough by 80% of Switch owners and I would go a little further and say that it drove hardware momentum by a huge amount but without adequate supply. It's the only franchise that can rival Animal Crossing in Japan, it actually increase Wii U sales for more than an year, something that no other title managed to achieve on the system.

It was limited what you you sell at launch by the size of the user base. Potential user-base that Splatoon 3 is launching on is over 22 million in Japan. It will be by far the most important game launching in Japan next year, and could very well achieve over 3.5 million sales just launch day and over 5 million in it's first quarter on the market.

However the more important thing is the years that follow where it continues to receive on-going support, this will help its legs be far stronger than other franchises. After all it remained the best selling evergreen in 2018 in Japan when it was regularly in the news due to a new map, new mode, new gear, new updates to PvE etc. Once updates stopped other evergreens started to outsell it.

Famitsu Switch Top 5 2018:
  1. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 2.360.655
  2. Pokémon: Let's Go - 1.253.677
  3. Splatoon 2 - 1.122.324
  4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 926.553
  5. Super Mario Party - 764.853

Splatoon 2 launched at the start of the generation to drive hardware sales in Japan. However it only had 2 years of development time and a lot of core members moved onto making New Horizon an year after it launched. It had some fresh ideas but the creative team had to work on a tight deadline.

Splatoon 3 has had over 5 years for creative ideation, at least four of actual development in some capacity. There has been no rush to capitalize on it, but there is no doubt that it will be a greater investment for Nintendo as a whole into the franchise. Splatoon 2 confirmed how big it was by achieving some crazy things in Japan until its support faded. I expect this title to end up with over 2 years of support and major updates, & for it to continue to be relevant on the Switch successor or Pro.

There are many things we are likely to learn in the lead up to the release, as Nintendo's marketing ramp ups. There are likely two major franchises for Nintendo next year - Splatoon 3 and the Breath of the Wild sequel. The comparison of how much marketing is focused on Splatoon 3 compared to how much marketing they could allocate in 2017 when they had a bunch of titles launching and also had to build hype for 2018 games. After all in 2017 Nintendo had to also market Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Breath of the Wild & its expansion, Arms & Super Mario Odyssey, 2022 is likely to be focused on just two major games and a few mid-tier franchises like Kirby and maybe something like a new entry to Tomodachi, Rhythm Heaven or Xenoblade(rumored)

Splatoon is now among the Top 5 Franchises according to Nintendo themselves - so we are talking about a massive launch for a online-focused multiplayer game. Its a game that will also be a major opportunity for Nintendo in East Asia as Splatoon 2 never officially launched in China, and at the time it launched in places like Taiwan & South Korea Switch wasn't in a dominant position on those markets. As Nintendo expands their operations in other SEA markets it will likely lead to even greater investment in Splatoon long term. The region is famous for it's love for online focused mulitplayer games - League of Legends, PUBG, Garena Free Fire, Dota 2 are all huge there, the question is can Splatoon reach the same heights and become the major hardware seller for Nintendo in the region next year.
 
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Elios83

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We have a Japanese sales insider like Dave Gibson that stated the demand for OLED model is too high

Switch is going to sell around 1.5M-2M in the remaining months of this year and will be around 23M, and only needed 7 million units for the next years before the successor going to be released.

2017 - 3.4M
2018 - 3.5M
2019 - 4.5M
2020 - 6M
2021 - 5.6M-6M(4.1M YTD)
23 million units with 7 million units left to the 30 million units mark.

2022 is going to be another huge year for Nintendo in Japan with many AAA games from Nintendo such as BOTW2(2.5M seller), Pokemon Legends(3-4M seller), 3D Kirby game(1.5M seller), MH Sun Break(1.5M seller), and many potential unannounced games from Nintendo.

30M units mark is very likely based on current trajectory and Japanese market situation as PS5 and XSX/S are barely relevant in Japanese video game market.

It will be really hard to sell 30m.
You're basically thinking they're going to sell 50% of their total installed base over 5 years now that the system is old, has peaked and is on a downward trajectory and the pandemic boost is basically near its end.
Japansese market also has a saturation point after 20m so sales slow down also because of that.
New products like the OLED model that offer very little value over what's already available aren't going to do much and if they introuce a proper successor sales of the previous console are going to collapse in Japan like it always happens.
We'll see what kind of numbers they're going to do this holiday season and how they compare to last year.
 
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Bodomism

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It will be really hard to sell 30m.
You're basically thinking they're going to sell 50% of their total installed base over 5 years now that the system is old, has peaked and is on a downward trajectory and the pandemic boost is basically near its end.
Japansese market also has a saturation point after 20m so sales slow down also because of that.
New products like the OLED model that offer very little value over what's already available aren't going to do much and if they introuce a proper successor sales of the previous console are going to collapse in Japan like it always happens.
We'll see what kind of numbers they're going to do this holiday season and how they compare to last year.
You need to take a look at current sales of Nintendo Switch vs other platforms as Nintendo Switch is performing differently than the past Nintendo platform.

Let me remind you again about the big games that will be released in 2022 for Switch.

Splatoon 2 - 5M seller
Pokemon Legends - 4M seller
BOTW 2 - 2.5M seller
MH sunbreak - 1.5M seller
Kirby 3D - 1.5M seller

We're looking at another 4.5-5M units sales year for Nintendo Switch 2022.
 

Elios83

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You need to take a look at current sales of Nintendo Switch vs other platforms as Nintendo Switch is performing differently than the past Nintendo platform.

Let me remind you again about the big games that will be released in 2022 for Switch.

Splatoon 2 - 5M seller
Pokemon Legends - 4M seller
BOTW 2 - 2.5M seller
MH sunbreak - 1.5M seller
Kirby 3D - 1.5M seller

We're looking at another 4.5-5M units sales year for Nintendo Switch 2022.
New games when you already have a huge installed base won't do much for hardware sales.
People who want to play those games already have the system.
This happens all the time to big software releases towards the end of the life cycle on every platform every gen.
Big software sales do not equal big hardware sales anymore.
 
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Bodomism

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New games when you already have a huge installed base won't do much for hardware sales.
People who want to play those games already have the system.
This happens all the time to big software releases towards the end of the life cycle on every platform every gen.
Big software sales do not equal big hardware sales anymore.
The same was said to Nintendo Switch every year since released on the market.

2017 - Switch will flop and going to do worse than WiiU.
BOTW, MK8D, Splatoon 2, and SMO happened.

2018 - Switch will stop selling after all big games were released last year and nothing could move the hardware like the previous year.
Pokemon Let's GO, Smash Ultimate, and Super Mario Party happened.

2019 - This is the year the sales will dramatically slow down after all big games were released last year.
Pokemon SwSh, LM3, RFA, NSMBUD and SMM2 happened.

2020 - Seriously, this is the real year when Nintendo Switch sales will collapse.
Animal Crossing NH, Momotaro and SM3DAD happened.

2021 - No pandemic boost and no Animal Crossing this time! Rip Nintendo.
Bowser's Fury, MH Rise, Mario Party All-stars and Pokemon Remake happened.

2022 - .........
BOTW2, Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, MHR SunBreak, and Kirby 3D happened.


Switch is a monster.
 
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noshten

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In Japan the line-up Bodomism outlined is just the tip of the iceberg, it's also 90% of third party games launching on the platform providing additional hardware momentum. The Japanese hardware market is around 6-7 million per year for the past few years thanks to the Switch's growth. Even if the Switch slows down compared to the past two years we are still talking more than 5 million units. Without a successor of the Switch there is no reason to expect someone else challenging it in Japan, especially now with third party support accelerating.
This holiday Switch is getting Pokemon Remakes, Mario Party, SMT V & GTA Remakes.. that leads into an even stronger line-up for 2022. In terms of big software sales not equaling big hardware sales - I'm sure you will be wrong about it next year. Sure it's possible it's past the peak but over 5 million is better than most systems have done in their peak years.
In the past at this stage of a device Nintendo had to look elsewhere, as they were supporting two separate gaming devices. Switch is the first time since they entered the portable market that they have a device that allows them to plan their software output for future devices while also supporting their existing audience with new exciting games.

Once Successor is launched the Switch will decline rapidly but I don't expect that until late 2023/early 2024, by that time Switch is likely to already be very close to the best selling system in Japan.
On the DS their last 1st party million plus game launched in 2009, Tomodachi Collection, while on the 3DS it was Super Mario Maker in 2016.. both launch aligned release before Splatoon 3 is likely to hit let alone Breath of the Wild sequel. It's obviously Nintendo has a different strategy to keep their hardware relevant and judging from this years results they seem successful. No one expected them to match New Horizon's 2020 in Japan, yet Software is sure to be up YoY, while Hardware has a chance depending on Nintendo's ability to ship enough OLED supply for the holidays.
Next year we can expect Nintendo to find another reason to prolong the Switch's life, after all they've all but maintained the launch price, in fact right now with Lite selling so little it's likely that they are actually selling hardware at a higher price right now compared to when Switch launched. If they drop the price of both hybrid devices by Y7,000 it's no doubt going to cause big demand in Japan yet again.

We've been warned many times about the inevitable cliff, but what I see is it gently gliding downwards until the successor is launched.
 
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Bodomism

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In Japan the line-up Bodomism outlined is just the tip of the iceberg, it's also 90% of third party games launching on the platform providing additional hardware momentum. The Japanese hardware market is around 6-7 million per year for the past few years thanks to the Switch's growth. Even if the Switch slows down compared to the past two years we are still talking more than 5 million units. Without a successor of the Switch there is no reason to expect someone else challenging it in Japan, especially now with third party support accelerating.
This holiday Switch is getting Pokemon Remakes, Mario Party, SMT V & GTA Remakes.. that leads into an even stronger line-up for 2022. In terms of big software sales not equaling big hardware sales - I'm sure you will be wrong about it next year. Sure it's possible it's past the peak but over 5 million is better than most systems have done in their peak years.
In the past at this stage of a device Nintendo had to look elsewhere, as they were supporting two separate gaming devices. Switch is the first time since they entered the portable market that they have a device that allows them to plan their software output for future devices while also supporting their existing audience with new exciting games.

Once Successor is launched the Switch will decline rapidly but I don't expect that until late 2023/early 2024, by that time Switch is likely to already be very close to the best selling system in Japan.
On the DS their last 1st party million plus game launched in 2009, Tomodachi Collection, while on the 3DS it was Super Mario Maker in 2016.. both launch aligned release before Splatoon 3 is likely to hit let alone Breath of the Wild sequel. It's obviously Nintendo has a different strategy to keep their hardware relevant and judging from this years results they seem successful. No one expected them to match New Horizon's 2020 in Japan, yet Software is sure to be up YoY, while Hardware has a chance depending on Nintendo's ability to ship enough OLED supply for the holidays.
Next year we can expect Nintendo to find another reason to prolong the Switch's life, after all they've all but maintained the launch price, in fact right now with Lite selling so little it's likely that they are actually selling hardware at a higher price right now compared to when Switch launched. If they drop the price of both hybrid devices by Y7,000 it's no doubt going to cause big demand in Japan yet again.

We've been warned many times about the inevitable cliff, but what I see is it gently gliding downwards until the successor is launched.
Yep, many naysayers forgot to take a look at the games released during the late years of Nintendo platforms vs Switch.

Another thing to note, Nintendo first party games are stronger than ever together with 3rd party companies that support Nintendo with their best games, while 3rd party publishers such as SQE and Bandai Namco that ignored Switch were losing their foothold in their own country.
 

Bodomism

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